The labor-force participation of married women in the Soviet Union: a household cross-section analysis

Approximately 80% of women in the Soviet Union ages 15-54 years are employed outside the home. To identify the impact of demographic and economic variables on the high rate of labor force participation among Soviet women, data from an income survey of 1016 2-parent families of emigrants to Israel were analyzed. It was hypothesized that differences in participation rates among Soviet women correspond to differences in other sources of family income, wage rates and market conditions, level of education, and family household conditions, with response to changes in economic variables mediated by the role played by persuasion and social pressure in encouraging women to participate. Overall, 89.3% of the women in the sample were labor force participants. Nonparticipants were, as expected, from families with higher levels of other income. The personal qualifications of nonworking wives were considerably lower than those of working wives, with nonworking wives averaging 9.4 years of schooling compared with 13.2 years for working wives. Offered wages for working wives averaged 69 kopecks/hour in contrast to 40-50 kopecks/hour for nonworking women. A maximum-likelihood functional estimation of participation rates whoed significant coefficients for family income (negative), expected wages and education (positive), and residence in a large city (positive). The coefficients for residence in a medium-sized city, existence of a private plot, presence of nonworking men in the household, occupational status of the husband, and total number of children were insignificant. The supply of hours of work was backward-bending. The results suggest that Soviet women reach the decision to participate in the labor force through consideration of the same factors as their counterparts in nonsocialist countries. The analysis further indicates that, at present levels of fertility and exogenous conditions, the participation rate in the Soviet Union will not decrease. However, policies designed to raise the fertility level, including better facilities for children and more support for women who leave the labor force to raise young children, could ease labor force participation among soviet women.     

Disintegration and Trade

The gravity model is used to assess the impact of disintegration on trade among the former constituent republics of three demised federations in central and eastern Europe: the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia. The authors find evidence of a very strong home bias around the time of disintegration, with trade exceeding normal trade intensity 24‐fold (for Slovenia and Croatia) to 43‐fold (the former Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia). Disintegration was followed by a sharp fall in trade intensity, although the legacy of a common past remains strong. By 1998, trade relations still exceeded the normal level 2‐fold in the case of Slovenia and Croatia, 7‐fold for the former Czechoslovakia, 13‐fold for the Baltics, and 30‐fold for Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. Such trade intensities surpass the effects of formal preferential trade areas such as the EU or the impact of reunification on trade between East and West Germany.     

Constitutionalism and credibility in reforming economies1

There has been relatively little investigation of the effect of constitutional transformations on the economic transition in post‐communist countries. We develop a simple signalling model in which constitutionalism – a commitment to limit political power and provide judicial defence of basic rights – reinforces the credibility of pro‐market candidates’ electoral promises and boosts public support for economic reforms. These findings are tested using opinion poll data on public support for reform in Central and Eastern Europe, and in the former Soviet Union, in the 1990s. In a two‐stage procedure we show that public support for market reforms is higher in countries where incumbents have taken deliberate steps to increase political accountability and judicial independence. Public support also spurs actual economic reform.     

Research Note: The slow growth of foreign direct investment in the Soviet Union successor states

This note reviews the statistical evidence on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the countries of the former Soviet Union taking into account data from both host countries and countries of origin. The main characteristics of this FDI and its variation among the successor states of the Soviet Union are established. The contribution of FDI to economic transition is so far limited to some sectors and regions, and unlikely to accelerate in the near future.
JEL classification: F21, F23, P31.     

A note on measuring the unofficial economy in the former Soviet Republics1

This note argues that the most commonly used estimates of the size of the unofficial economies in the former Soviet republics are flawed. Most important, they are based on calculations that disregard the variation in unofficial economic activity across space in the pre‐transition Soviet Union. In addition, these estimates appear to understate the size of the unofficial economies in these countries. We propose alternative estimates and find that they are more strongly related to the institutional factors commonly used to explain the size of the unofficial sector. Our estimates also show that the size of a country's pre‐transition unofficial economy is an important predictor of its size during the transition. This suggests that the size of the unofficial economy is to a large extent a historical phenomenon only partly determined by contemporary institutional factors. JEL classification: O17, P2, P3.     

Speed and Sequencing of Transition Reforms and Income Inequality: A Panel Data Analysis

An extensive literature has analyzed the economic effects of transition patterns in Central and Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries. With few recent exceptions, analysis of the impacts of speed and sequencing of reforms has not concerned the dynamics of income inequality. In this paper we analyze the heterogeneous effects of transition reforms on inequality by explicitly considering their speed and sequencing. To this aim we identify eight transition models in which the 27 countries considered are classified. The dynamic panel‐data analysis for the period 1989–2009 reveals that balanced transition patterns, which favored a coordination of reforms especially in specific fields, were relatively less pro‐inequality.     

Transition welfare gaps: One closed,another to follow?

Respondents from post‐communist countries have been found to systematically report lower levels of happiness and self‐rated health. While the first welfare gap in happiness has closed recently, the second transition gap in self‐perceived health only started to close. Specifically, this paper shows that treating all transition countries as a homogeneous group may be misleading and therefore divides 28 transition countries into three groups. As a result, in the most recent 2016 round of the ‘Life in Transition’ survey, transition countries in Southern Europe are no longer found to be different from non‐transition nations in terms of their self‐rated health. Although the gap in self‐perceived health for transition nations in Eastern Europe is present in a basic model, it becomes less statistically and economically significant when subjective beliefs and macro‐level variables are added. Countries from the former Soviet Union and Mongolia remain the only group in which respondents report 16.5%–29.1% lower probability of ‘Good’ or ‘Very Good’ health compared to other transition and non‐transition countries. Controlling for communist party membership, ideological beliefs and macro‐level variables somewhat reduces the gap for the former Soviet Union and Mongolia but it remains significant in multiple robustness checks. Although the gap in self‐rated health now applies to only one group of transition countries, it remains an important empirical puzzle with far‐reaching implications for health policy, demand for healthcare and the process of transition.     

Monetary integration in the ex‐Soviet Union: A ‘union of four’?*

The governments of four ex‐Soviet countries recently discussed forming a currency union. To examine the economic feasibility of this proposition, we use conventional techniques and show that the arrangement is likely to find it difficult to handle the lack of structural symmetry, the asymmetric pattern of shocks, and the lack of market flexibility among the potential participants. Moreover, the union would be a unilateral one. It would require an unusual degree of political commitment to survive. Nonetheless, there are some subtleties in the timing and pattern of mutual dependence between Russia and Kazakhstan, and to a lesser extent in Belarus, which may reduce the strain from a currency union in those countries. Otherwise, the black market will have to provide the necessary market flexibility.     

Household formation rules,fertility and female labour supply: Evidence from post-communist countries

This paper explains how household formation rules affect the fertility and labour supply of women in the Former Soviet Union and neighbouring countries. Women who bear a male first child in countries dominated by traditional, patrilocal households are shown to have substantially lower subsequent fertility from those whose first child is female. Where households are generally nuclear, male first borns do not reduce subsequent fertility. Middle-aged women in more patrilocal contexts often work less if their first child is male, despite reduced fertility and being more likely to reside with a daughter-in-law. In more nuclear contexts, they tend to work more. These findings suggest that household formation rules are strongly related both to women’s demand for sons and to the direction of intergenerational transfers.     

Does female schooling reduce fertility? Evidence from Nigeria

The literature generally points to a negative relationship between female education and fertility. Citing this pattern, policymakers have advocated educating girls and young women as a means to reduce population growth and foster sustained economic and social welfare in developing countries. This paper tests whether the relationship between fertility and education is indeed causal by investigating the introduction of universal primary education in Nigeria. Exploiting differences in program exposure by region and age, the paper presents reduced form and instrumental variables estimates of the impact of female education on fertility. The analysis suggests that increasing female education by one year reduces early fertility by 0.26 births.     

拓宽中国特色社会主义经济学的研究视野--从多向比较揭示规律性

为深化中国特色社会主义经济学研究、认识中国经济发展的特殊规律，必须进行多向的比较分析，包括对中国经济自身发展历史阶段的比较分析、同苏联模式的比较分析、同俄罗斯和东欧等“转型“”国家的比较分析、同发展中国家的比较分析、同西欧发达国家的比较分析，在比较中鉴别，为理论升华开拓广阔的视野。     

Recent developments in EC USSR commercial and economic relations

Conclusion Trade with the Soviet Union represents only a small part of total Community trade (3.5 % of EC imports and 2.7 % of EC exports in 1990). EC imports from the Soviet Union increased moderately between 1989 and 1990 as well as between the first six months of 1990 and the corresponding period of 1991, whilst EC exports decreased sharply as a result of hard currency shortage in the Soviet Union.The CMEA and Soviet disintegration processes will lead to a substantial reorientation of trade flows. This development has already begun with large increases of trade between the EC and the Central and Eastern European countries.International assistance to the USSR mainly consists of export credits. Community assistance involves a large proportion of grants and technical assistance. The cost of assistance measures envisaged so far remains limited for Western countries.The economic effects of assistance would be enhanced if effective coordination was implemented among the providers. Adequate mechanisms such as triangular operations or the untying of assistance would be required in order to avoid crowding out traditional suppliers from Soviet markets.     

The determinants of interest rates in European Union countries

One of the problems that has raised the interest of economists is to know the determinants of interest rates. In the case of the European Union, the existence of some coordination in the area of economic policies and having to fulfill some nominal convergence criteria have opened new possibilities to this field of research. In this way, possible relations among interest rates, prices, and exchange rates have been studied. This forces us to consider, among other questions, the concept of purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate differential. The goal of this paper is to show the influence that German interest rates might have over other European Union countries. We will start by showing the essential elements of the equations to be estimated. Then we will carry out the empirical analysis for the case of six European Union countries.     

Economic reform and mortality in the former Soviet Union: A study of the suicide epidemic in the 1990s

Male suicide rates in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic countries increased substantially in the early 1990s and are now the highest in the world. To what extent is this suicide epidemic explained by the macroeconomic instability experienced by these countries in that period? Fixed effects regressions across 22 transition economies indicate that male suicide rates are highly sensitive to the state of the macroeconomy, suggesting that the steep and prolonged declines in GDP in the western countries of the former Soviet Union may have been partly to blame for the suicide epidemic. Evidence also indicates that the general adult male mortality crisis in the region had a ‘feedback’ effect on suicide rates, with the loss of a spouse or friend – or declining life expectancy itself – contributing to rising suicide rates. Female suicide rates, in contrast, are insensitive to the state of the macroeconomy and are more strongly related to alcohol consumption.     

Crime and corruption in transitional economies: lessons for Cuba

Trends in aggregate crime rates across Europe reveal significant increases in crime in transitional countries. We identify causal mechanisms associated with the economic transition. Historical experience of corruption in the Soviet Union is reviewed, and connections between corruption and transition are analyzed. We apply the results to Cuba's current circumstances, examining the potential for growth in crime and corruption in Cuba and suggesting policies to ameliorate it.     

Where do people live longer?

Can historical exposures of non-European countries to European migrants explain part of their current health outcomes? We find that higher European share of the colonial population robustly raised life expectancy and reduced both fertility and infant mortality rates of present-day population in these former colonies. Specifically, after controlling for other plausible determinants, our baseline results imply that, on average, countries at the 95th percentile of the European share of the colonial population, compared to those at the 5th percentile, live 17 years longer, have 1 less child, and experience 54 fewer infant deaths per 1000 live births. A causal interpretation is given to these results by considering various identification strategies. Overall, our results indicate that health fortunes around the world, on average, improved because of European colonial settlers and that differences in the current levels of health performance can be traced back to differential levels of European colonial settlements, where countries that experienced higher influx of colonial Europeans have better health prosperity nowadays than countries with lower inflow of colonial Europeans. A puzzlement arises, however, as countries with no colonial European settlements have outperformed countries with low colonial European settlements. Thus, explaining this phenomenon and exploring how historical migration holds such an enduring influence on the health of nations today opens up an important avenue for future research.     

Growing apart? A tale of two republics: Estonia and Georgia

We compare and contrast the economic growth performance of Estonia and Georgia from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 until 2006 and beyond in an attempt to understand better the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency in the use of capital and other resources (intensive growth) as opposed to brute accumulation of capital (extensive growth). On the basis of a simple growth accounting exercise, we infer that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Estonia than in Georgia which remains marred by various problems related to weak governance in the public and private spheres.     

THE SOVIET PATH TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Considerable attention has been devoted in the past to the methodological issues involved in the measurement and explanation of economic growth. Following the method pioneered by Denison and applied by him to the United States and Western Europe, comparative studies have been made of various other countries; that for Japan is of special interest. The present paper extends the analysis to the Soviet Union. In order to preserve comparability, the analysis follows the Denison methodology exactly, and compares the results with those for the United States, Northwest Europe, and Japan.     

斯大林的资本主义经济危机理论探析

当世界各国正从美国次贷危机引发的世界性经济危机中探索出路、找寻对策时,也在对危机的爆发缘由进行积极的思考和多种的解读,重新梳理和评价斯大林的资本主义经济危机理论,即资本主义经济危机是生产过剩的危机;资本主义经济危机是毁灭性的周期性危机;资本主义经济危机是资本主义制度的必然产物等等,这对探讨、洞析和应对当前世界性的经济危机毫无疑义具有重要理论和现实意义。     

FISCAL INDULGENCE IN CENTRAL EUROPE: LOSS OF THE EXTERNAL ANCHOR?

In recent years, fiscal performance in Central Europe has steadily deteriorated, in contrast to the improvement in the Baltics. This paper explores the determinants of such differences among countries on the path to European Union (EU) accession. Regression estimates suggest that economic and institutional fundamentals do not provide a full explanation. An alternative explanation lies in the political economy of the accession process, and a game‐theoretic model illustrates why a country with a stronger bargaining position might have an incentive to deviate from convergence to the Maastricht criteria. The model generates alternative fiscal policy regimes – allowing for regime shifts – depending on country characteristics and EU policies.