Saving–investment Association and Regional Capital Mobility in China: A Nonparametric Panel Approach

Using a nonparametric panel data model, this paper estimates the degree of time‐varying and province‐specific capital mobility in China during 1970–2006. We estimate the savings–investment association, that is, the savings retention rate à la Feldstein and Horioka, as a measure of capital mobility. We also split the total savings (investment) into private and government savings (investment) to explore the role of government in improving capital mobility. Over time, we find an improvement in capital mobility after the mid‐1990s. Across provinces, we observe higher capital mobility in eastern/coastal regions. From the 1990s, the government is found to play a less important role in promoting capital mobility. Across provinces, the government is found to be more important in either the municipalities (Shanghai and Beijing) or the less developed inland provinces.     

ASSESSING RETURNS TO EDUCATION AND LABOR SHOCKS IN MEXICAN REGIONS AFTER NAFTA

This article examines Mexico's (real) wage movements across its 32 subnational entities for post‐North American Free Trade Agreement years. Employing dynamic panel data methods, we obtain the following results. First, education (or labor productivity) has slightly higher wage effects in the Border‐North region. Second, allowing for foreign capital and labor to respond to wages, returns to education have higher effects in South‐Center Mexico, the region with (average) lower education levels. Third, convergence rates become lower with endogenous foreign capital and migration flows: wages move faster in the South‐Center region than in Border‐North. Overall, migration flows have greater effects on wages than foreign direct investment inflows. (JEL F15, F21, F22, F43, O47)     

What role for human capital in the growth process: new evidence from endogenous latent factor panel quantile regressions

The estimates for the human capital effect in cross‐country growth regressions have been subject of considerable controversy. We argue that human capital is intrinsically a multidimensional construct. We construct human capital measure by combining available alternative proxies via confirmatory factor analysis. Using panel data endogenous quantile regression methods we analyse the whole conditional growth distribution by simultaneously accounting for the potential endogeneity of human capital and country‐specific effects. Our results conform to theoretical expectations and we are able to demonstrate the beneficial effect of both the measurement approach and the endogeneity correction on the derivation of theoretically consistent estimates.     

STATE‐LEVEL CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT: UPDATES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper presents state‐by‐state capital stock and gross investment estimates for 1990–2007. I follow the methodology of Garofalo and Yamarik (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 2002, 316–23) and apportion the national capital stock to the individual states using one‐digit NAICS income data. I then test the soundness of the data by estimating a Cobb–Douglas production function and a Solow growth model using a variety of panel data estimators. Under both models, I obtain estimates of the output elasticity for capital that are plausible and close to the observed national income share of one‐third. (JEL O47, O51, R11)     

CROSS‐BORDER M&As AND FIRM VALUE: A COMPARISON OF CHINA‐ AND US‐JAPAN M&As

We examine the effect of M&As conducted by U.S. and Chinese bidders (US‐Japan and China‐Japan M&As) on the stock prices of Japanese targets. We find that both types of M&As tend to increase the stock prices of the Japanese targets and that market reactions are significantly greater for US‐Japan M&As than for China‐Japan M&As. Additionally, capital participation produces greater market reactions to China‐Japan M&As than other structures, while acquisition produces this effect in US‐Japan M&As. Our results are consistent with previous research indicating that market reactions increase for bidders operating in a developed country with high‐quality institutions and corporate governance. (JEL G32, G34)     

Inspiration vs. perspiration in economic development of the Former Soviet Union and China (ca. 1920–2010)

Here, we discuss the role of both perspiration factors (physical and human capital) and inspiration factors (Total Factor Productivity) in the economic development of the Former Soviet Union area (FSU) and China, ca. 1920–2010. Using a newly created dataset, we find that during the Socialist central‐planning period, economic growth in both countries was largely driven by physical capital accumulation. This finding follows logically from the development policies in place at that time. During their transition periods, (i.e., starting from the late 1970s in China and the late 1980s in the FSU), China managed to keep technical inefficiency of production factors in check, largely by massively increasing its human capital, thereby lowering the physical‐to‐human capital ratio. In contrast, the FSU accomplished a similar outcome largely through reducing its stock of physical capital. As a result, although there was little difference in technical efficiency between these two economies, China's emphasis on human capital formation made it easier for this country to improve its general productivity and to increase per capita growth. This changed in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the FSU began to recover economically, regaining its 1990 levels of output and productivity.     

THE IMPACT OF INSURANCE SUBSIDIES ON SELF‐EMPLOYMENT: DO STATE NON‐GROUP HEALTH INSURANCE REGULATIONS MATTER?

This paper tests whether the effect of tax‐based subsidies for self‐employed health insurance on the level of self‐employment differs with the type of non‐group insurance regulatory regime at the state level. Using a panel of tax returns from 1999 to 2004, we estimate fixed effects instrumental variable regressions for the probability of being self‐employed, allowing the effect of the after‐tax price of self‐employed health insurance to differ by regulatory regime. Our results suggest that states with community rating and guaranteed issue regulations had significantly smaller increases in the fraction of taxpayers reporting some amount of self‐employment income as a result of a decrease in the after‐tax price of self‐employed health insurance. However, there is suggestive evidence that heavily regulated states experienced a larger increase in exclusive self‐employment, particularly among older taxpayers. (JEL J24, H24, I18)     

Children’s environmental health,education, and economic development

Abstract This article aims at investigating the interplay between environmental quality, health, and economic development in a unified OLG framework. Human capital accumulation depends on the environment through its impact on children’s health and workers’ productivity. In turn, environmental quality dynamics rely upon human capital that determines maintenance efforts. This two‐way relationship generates a co‐evolution of human capital and environmental quality in the long run. Along the transition path, the dynamic interactions between economic and environmental spheres allow for replicating two different trajectories: some economies experiment an Environmental Kuznets Curve while some others are caught into the environmental poverty trap.     

TURNING PINK SLIPS INTO RED TAPE: THE UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION LEGISLATION

This article presents evidence on the link between employment protection legislation (EPL) and the rate of unemployment in a cross‐country panel dataset of Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries from 1985 to 2013. We use both a traditional panel specification with lags of the policy variable, and also a unique structural panel vector autoregression (PVAR) method to determine the long‐run dynamic interaction between EPL and unemployment. We confirm that more restrictive EPL for permanently employed workers causes a significant and persistent increase in unemployment, but the effect is only apparent at long‐lag lengths, some 2–5 years after the law has been implemented. (JEL J68, J65, J63)     

Capital adjustment cost and inconsistency in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects

After the seminal work of Nickell (1981), a vast literature demonstrates the inconsistency of ‘conditional convergence’ estimator in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects when the time horizon (T) is short but the sample of countries (N) is large. Less attention is given to the economic root of inconsistency of the fixed effects estimator when T is also large. Using a variant of the Ramsey growth model with long‐run adjustment cost of capital, we demonstrate that the fixed effects estimator of such models could be inconsistent when T is large. This inconsistency arises because of the long‐run adjustment cost of capital which gives rise to a negative moving average coefficient in the error term. Income convergence will be thus overestimated. We theoretically characterize the order of this inconsistency. Our Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the size of the bias is substantial and it is greater in economies with higher capital adjustment costs. We show that the use of instrumental variables that take into account the presence of the negative moving average term in the error will overcome this bias.     

Economic growth drag in the Central China: evidence from a panel analysis

This article employs recently developed panel methods to test for unit roots, cointegration and Granger causality to justify and estimate the drag induced by resource constraint and environmental pollution for the Central China. The results of the panel cointegration test show that there is a stable long run relationship amongst total output, capital, labour, land, water and SO₂ when total output is the dependent variable. The results of the causality test with Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis suggest that the available water resource and environmental pollutant have no impacts on total output temporarily, but in the long‐run there is a Granger causality running from these variables to total output, indicating the economic growth drag induced by the natural resource and environmental pollution can be further estimated. Given the stable cointegration and significant Granger causality being, the study shows that the drag on the total output reduces annual economic growth rate by about 1.1 percentage points for the Central China as a whole and there is a significant difference on the aggregated and disaggregated drags for the six provinces, which indicates that natural resource and environmental constraints so far incorporated into production probably have a modest effect over the past 31 years for the Central China.     

Evaluating the Impact of a Working Time Regulation on Capital Operating Time: The French 35‐hour Work Week Experience

In this article, we evaluate the impact of diminishing weekly working hours on capital operating time using the French 35‐hour working week experience. We merge the French survey on Capital Operating Time (COT, Banque de France, Central Bank of France; 1989–2004) and administrative Working Time Reduction agreements files (WTR, DARES, French Ministry of Labour; May 2003). We construct shift‐work‐based capital operating time indicators. Using differences‐in‐differences econometric models, we show that the implementation of the 35‐hour work week did not induce any reduction in COT. Hence, firms increased shift‐work to compensate for the decrease in working hours.     

Does the stock market affect investment by Chinese firms? Some new evidence

During the 1990s, the Chinese government increasingly relied on the stock market as the major tool for state‐owned enterprise (SOE) reform and for the allocation of investment resources. This paper investigates the impact of stock market development in China on firm‐level capital investment by using a panel data set constructed by the author of all Chinese listed firms for the period 1992 to 1999. The results show that stock market valuation, as measured by Tobin’s q, has a highly independent, significant and positive influence on listed firms’ investment decisions, particularly during the stock market boom from 1996 to 1999. Given the sizable real effects of the stock market, deviations of stock prices from fundamentals can have substantially negative consequences. As a result, this study suggests that sensible regulation of the Chinese stock market is needed in order to enhance the efficiency of stock prices and facilitate an effective channeling of investment funds.     

官产学合作对社会资本与技术创新的中介效应研究

社会资本对技术创新的影响机制一直是一个备受关注但又争议颇多的问题,社会资本主要通过官产学合作促进区域创新产出。将官产学合作作为中介变量,通过对2009-2013年中国内地30个地区面板数据的实证检验,研究了社会资本与区域创新产出之间的关系。结果表明,社会资本、官学合作和官产合作均对区域创新产出有正向促进作用,且只有官学合作在社会资本与技术创新之间具有中介效应,而官产合作和产学合作并不具有中介效应。最后,基于上述研究结果,为我国创新发展提出相关政策建议。     

THE INCOME REDISTRIBUTION EFFECT OF CHINA'S PERSONAL INCOME TAX: WHAT THE MICRO‐DATA SAY

This article uses continuous micro‐level data to investigate the income redistribution effect of the personal income tax (PIT) in China beginning in 1997. We find that the average tax rate plays a larger role in determining the income redistribution effect of PIT than tax progressivity does. Although tax progressivity decreased as a result of rising personal incomes and a constant PIT policy prior to 2005, the income redistribution effect of the PIT improved as a result of the higher average tax rate. The tax reform beginning in 2006 increased tax progressivity while decreasing the average tax rate, thereby weakening the income redistribution effect of the PIT. Further analysis indicates that the middle‐income group was the only net loser before 2005, but it benefited from the PIT policy reform. A cross‐country comparison shows that China has a lower PIT burden and higher progressivity than developed countries; in fact, China's levels of progressivity and tax burden are similar to those of Latin American countries. (JEL H24, D31, H31)     

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS,BOOM‐BUST CYCLES,AND BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION

This article documents evidence of business cycle synchronization in selected Asia Pacific countries since the 1990s. We explain business cycle synchronization by the channel of international capital flows and boom‐bust cycles. Using the vector auto‐regression method, we find that most Asian countries experience boom‐bust cycles following capital inflows, where the boom in output is mostly driven by consumption and investment. Empirical evidence also shows that capital flow shocks are positively correlated in the region, which supports the conclusion that capital market liberalization has contributed to business cycle synchronization. (JEL F4)     

HOUSING WEALTH AND U.S. MONEY DEMAND: A PANEL ESTIMATION

This article estimates a panel model for U.S. money demand using annual state‐level data for the period from 1977 to 2008. We incorporate housing wealth in the demand‐for‐money function and find strong evidence of a relationship between a broad monetary aggregate and housing wealth. This finding is robust to the inclusion of variables measuring financial heterogeneity across U.S. regions. Breaking up the sample in two subperiods shows that panel estimates including housing wealth yield more stable coefficients than both time‐series estimates and panel estimates excluding housing wealth. We also show that the link between money and housing wealth predates the recent boom‐and‐bust cycle. (JEL E41, E52)     

WILL TAX‐BASED HEALTH INSURANCE REFORMS HELP THE SELF‐EMPLOYED STAY IN BUSINESS?

The self‐employed face a tax‐induced disadvantage relative to wage and salary workers when it comes to the payment of health insurance premiums. This paper uses a panel of individual tax return data to test whether lower health insurance premium costs because of an expanded tax incentive result in longer periods of self‐employment. The results suggest that households claiming the deduction are indeed less likely to exit self‐employment. Equalizing the treatment of health insurance premiums for the self‐employed and wage workers by allowing full deductibility from Self‐Employment Contributions Act (SECA) taxes would result in a 7% decrease in the probability of exit. (JEL H32, I18, L26)     

HAS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOBILITY INCREASED IN ASIA? EVIDENCE FROM THE POST‐1997 FINANCIAL CRISIS PERIOD

This paper examines whether international capital mobility in Asia has increased after the 1997 Asian financial crisis by estimating the Feldstein‐Horioka (FH) coefficients using panel cointegration and dynamic OLS regressions. In the benchmark estimation, we find that the FH coefficients of ten Asian economies decrease significantly from 0.65 during the pre‐crisis period to 0.32 during the post‐crisis period. Furthermore, the coefficient for the post‐crisis period is less statistically significant than that for the pre‐crisis period. The extended model estimations with additional control variables controlling for the business cycle, different foreign exchange rate systems, and capital control also show the results which are consistent with the benchmark estimation results. Rolling regressions show a consistently declining trend of the FH coefficients in Asia during our sample period. These results provide consistent evidence, according to the FH proposition, of increasing international capital mobility in Asia during the post‐1997 Asian financial crisis period. (JEL F36, F37, F21)     

RETURNS TO DEBT AND EQUITY IN FARM PRODUCER ORGANIZATIONS

While the capital structure irrelevance proposition is the point of departure in corporate finance, it is unknown if debt‐or‐equity decisions matter to farm producer organizations. To inform decisions of capital acquisition, a panel study is conducted to estimate the relationships of different types of debt (current, long‐term) and equity (allocated, unallocated) to the financial performance of 707 farm producer organizations in the United States during the 2005–2011 period. Using 3,120 observations, the panel analysis indicates net sales in period t is increased by $1.97, $9.59, and $4.01 with an addition of $1 in current debt, allocated equity, or unallocated equity in period t_‐1. Furthermore, the magnitude of the positive relationship of an additional dollar of allocated (unallocated) equity to net income is estimated at $0.32 ($0.14). We thus reject the notion managers and directors of farm producer organizations should decide to use debt or equity with a coin toss.