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1.
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of
country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world
trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to “bottom-up” approaches, where world trade results from an
aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise
large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.
相似文献
Stephane DeesEmail: |
2.
Floating exchange rates are said to introduce volatility into the foreign exchange market that could deter trade flows. Previous
research employed aggregate import and export trade data and provided mixed results. In this paper we disaggregate the trade
data between the U.S. and the emerging economy of India and use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction
modeling to show that in 40 industries that trade between the two countries, exchange rate volatility has negative and positive
effects in 40% of industries, in the short run. These short-run effects, however, do not last into the long run in many cases.
相似文献
Mohsen Bahmani-OskooeeEmail: |
3.
The Barcelona Initiative is the central element of the EU’s Mediterranean policy. We study the implementation of this policy
with respect to Syria using a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit constraints and capital market imperfections.
Dismantling formal tariffs has only limited effects on the Syrian economy, while reducing non-tariff barriers produces by
far larger results. EU association promises broadly positive effects for factor incomes and sectoral outputs, with some temporarily
negative effects in agricultural sectors. Nevertheless, we find evidence of severe trade distorting effects making preferential
trade policy clearly welfare inferior to multilateral trade liberalization within the WTO framework.
相似文献
Bernd LuckeEmail: |
4.
Silvio H. T. Tai 《Review of World Economics》2009,145(2):225-249
Many recent studies have looked at the impact of international migration on trade and found a significant effect. They posit
that migration fosters trade by lowering costs or by means of a preference bias. However, to my knowledge, market structure
has not as yet been considered. Using data from Switzerland, this paper empirically assesses the extent to which migration
affects trade, taking goods differentiation into account. A monopolistic model with a multisector economy (Chaney in Am Econ
Rev 98(41):1707–1721, 2008) is then empirically estimated. The findings show that market structure explains the different channels through which migration
affects trade.
相似文献
Silvio H. T. TaiEmail: |
5.
This paper investigates the interaction between institutional integration and trade deepening in the EU over the last 50 years.
It uses Granger causality tests, a VECM and variance decompositions to further the understanding of this interaction. The
evidence indicates two-way endogeneity. But the link from institution building to trade dominates. Yet, this link has weakened
over time, possibly due to globalisation sidestepping institutions. Moreover, the sensitivity of institutional integration
to trade deepening has risen, which suggests that economic forces have gained more strength in determining institutional steps.
相似文献
Francesco Paolo MongelliEmail: |
6.
A small open economy model with an endogenous time preference is used to study the current account dynamics when consumption
exhibits durability. There is a unique level of instantaneous utility and stock of durables that must be maintained in the
steady state. A terms of trade deterioration requires a net asset accumulation and a fall in consumption expenditures along the adjustment path. Nevertheless, the fall in consumption
expenditures leads to a fall in the stock of durables, which has to be corrected somewhere along the adjustment path, and
which may lead to a non-monotonic adjustment of the current account (J-curve).
相似文献
Arman MansoorianEmail: |
7.
Non-traded Goods,Technical Progress and Wages 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We use a general equilibrium model of trade to show that technical improvement may indeed cause a fall in the wages of unskilled
workers. Under some modest conditions, the wages of skilled workers may go down too.
相似文献
Reza OladiEmail: |
8.
This paper provides evidence for an aspect of trade often disregarded in international trade research: countries’ sectoral
export diversification. The results of our semiparametric empirical analysis show that, on average, countries do not specialize;
on the contrary, they diversify. Our results are robust for different statistical indices used to measure trade specialization,
for the level of sectoral aggregation, and for the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated with per capita
income. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) with country-specific fixed effects it can be shown that, controlling for
countries’ heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income.
相似文献
Massimo Tamberi (Corresponding author)Email: |
9.
Kent P. Kimbrough 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(4):411-422
The implications of private information regarding a worker’s skills for optimal tax policy in an open economy are explored.
Two cases are considered. In one general skills are private information and in the other sector-specific skills are private
information. It is shown that for a small open economy tariffs and other equivalent trade distortions are not part of the
optimal tax policy in either case. In both cases the optimal policy distorts the labor–leisure choice but only in the case
of sector-specific skills as private information are labor allocation decisions distorted. For a large country, distortions
that are equivalent to the standard optimal tariff formula characterize the optimal tax policy.
相似文献
Kent P. KimbroughEmail: |
10.
Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper we develop an open economy model of firms’ pricing behaviour under imperfect competition. This allows us to
introduce various terms of trade effects influencing the firm’s pricing decision, in addition to labour costs which dominate
most closed-economy specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). Our analysis gives rise to a hybrid open economy
NKPC which nests existing closed and open economy specifications adopted in empirical work. We estimate this specification
for the G7 economies and find that the US, UK and Canada typically enjoy less inertia in price setting than the European G7
economies and Japan and that these estimates are both plausible and in line with survey evidence. We also find that the proportion
of firms which use simple backward-looking rules of thumb in price setting is greater when the frequency of price change is
smaller. Finally there is evidence of significant asymmetries in price setting amongst EMU members.
相似文献
Campbell LeithEmail: |
11.
This paper assesses China’s “natural” place in the world economy with a new set of trade integration indicators, which are
used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such
as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates
many more factors than traditional openness ratios. The model tracks international trade well and confirms that China is already
well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets
and most euro area countries.
相似文献
Matthieu BussièreEmail: |
12.
This paper examines the impact of trade policy on specialization patterns in ten Latin American countries over the period
1985–1998. These countries are natural case studies because in the last decades they implemented comprehensive trade liberalization
programs, both generally and preferentially, starting from relatively high tariff protection levels. Our econometric results
suggest that reducing own most favored nation tariffs is associated with increasing manufacturing production specialization.
Furthermore, we find that preferential trade liberalization and differences in the degree of unilateral openness have resulted
in increased dissimilarities in manufacturing production structures across countries. These results are robust across specialization
measures and estimation methods.
相似文献
Christian Volpe MartincusEmail: |
13.
FDI and the relevance of spatial linkages: do third-country effects matter for Dutch FDI? 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The aim of this paper is to test for the relevance of spatial linkages for Dutch (outbound) foreign direct investment (FDI).
We estimate a spatial lag model for Dutch FDI to 18 host countries. After controlling for fixed effects, we find for our sample
period 1984–2004 that third-country effects matter. Apart from our benchmark spatial lag model, we also estimate various alternative
models by looking at European host FDI countries only, by dividing FDI into industry and services FDI, and by estimating a
spatial error model.
相似文献
Harry GarretsenEmail: |
14.
Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
In this paper, we construct a macro-econometric model that describes the economic activity in the Asia-Pacific area and provide
quantitative insights into the recent policy debates on monetary and currency coordination among the East Asian economies.
The model includes a wide variety of monetary and currency policy rules that the East Asian economies adopt and allows for
one country's policymaking to have substantial effects on foreign countries. We apply the model to three current policy issues:
(1) the desirability of currency basket pegs in East Asia, (2) the anticipated effects of China's currency policy reform,
and (3) the non-negativity constraint on Japanese nominal interest rates. The simulation analyses show the external economy
effects of policy rules quantitatively and suggest the difficulty of monetary and currency policy coordination among the East
Asian economies.
相似文献
Koichiro Kamada (Corresponding author)Email: |
Izumi TakagawaEmail: |
15.
Ernesto Valenzuela Kym Anderson Thomas Hertel 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2008,4(4):395-420
The WTO’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade
reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001.
However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable
general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and
regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about
factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.
相似文献
Ernesto ValenzuelaEmail: |
16.
In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features.
First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second,
we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade
can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide
strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home
bias puzzle.
相似文献
Jacques Melitz (Corresponding author)Email: |
17.
Michael Bleaney 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(2):135-146
The puzzle that real exchange rates are less volatile in open economies is an important challenge to exchange rate theory.
Adjustment of domestic prices to nominal exchange rate movements can account for only a small proportion of this effect. Real
and nominal shocks display no obvious correlation with openness. It is shown here that real effective exchange rates are more
strongly mean-reverting in more open economies, even after controlling for exchange rate regime effects. This is predicted
by the theory of current account sustainability, because of its emphasis on ratios to GDP rather than to trade flows.
相似文献
Michael BleaneyEmail: |
18.
Vincent Vicard 《Review of World Economics》2009,145(2):167-187
Regional trade agreements (RTAs) are usually classified according to their form into four broad categories: preferential arrangements,
free trade agreements, customs unions and common markets. This paper investigates whether the form/depth of RTAs matters concerning
their effect on trade. I use a proper specification of the gravity model with panel data on the 1960–2000 period, which specifically
control for self-selection into agreements. Results show that creating any kind of RTAs providing trade preferences to their
member countries significantly increases bilateral trade. Nevertheless, their average treatment effect on bilateral trade
does not significantly differ according to the depth of agreements.
相似文献
Vincent VicardEmail: |
19.
Die another day: duration in German import trade 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Volker Nitsch 《Review of World Economics》2009,145(1):133-154
International trade patterns at the product level are surprisingly dynamic. The majority of trade relationships exist for
just a few, often only one to three, years. In this paper, I examine empirically the duration in German import trade at the
8-digit product level from 1995 to 2005. I find that survival probabilities are affected by exporter characteristics, product
type and market structure. Specifically, I show that the duration of exporting a product to Germany is longer for products
obtained from countries that are economically large and geographically close to Germany; for products with large trade value
and a low elasticity of substitution; and for trade pairs that command a large share of the German import market and are characterized
by two-way trade.
相似文献
Volker NitschEmail: |
20.
Balazs Egert 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(2):147-165
In this paper we explore the evidence that would establish that Dutch disease is at work in, or poses a threat to, the Kazakh
economy. Assessing the mechanism by which fluctuations in the price of oil can damage non-oil manufacturing—and thus long-term
growth prospects in an economy that relies heavily on oil production—we find that non-oil manufacturing has so far been spared
the perverse effects of oil price increases from 1996 to 2005. The real exchange rate in the open sector has appreciated over
the last couple of years, largely due to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. We analyze to what extent this appreciation
is linked to movements in oil prices and oil revenues. Econometric evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate and
a variety of real exchange rate models show that the rise in the price of oil and in oil revenues might be linked to an appreciation
of the U.S. dollar exchange rate of the oil and non-oil sectors. But appreciation is mainly limited to the real effective
exchange rate for oil sector and is statistically insignificant for non-oil manufacturing.
相似文献
Balazs EgertEmail: Email: |