Macroeconomic policy,output, and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia: Some evidence from the VAR analysis

Both macroeconomic policy and structural adjustment factors influenced the dynamics of output and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia during the first phase of its transition from central planning to markets. The results of VAR analysis indicate that, following price liberalization, the impact of structural adjustment processes on the level of output was somewhat stronger than the impact of macroeconomic policy. Moreover, it seems likely that a "looser" macroeconomic policy—advocated by many as a countermeasure to a large decline in industrial production—would only worsen the situation, bringing both higher inflation and a larger decline in industrial production.     

Monetary Policy,Market Structure and the Income Shares in the U.S

A general equilibrium model of heterogeneous capital is employed to investigate whether, how and to what extent monetary policy and market structure may have contributed to the decline of the labor share in the U.S. in recent decades. By construction the model allows monetary policy to affect the labor share through two channels, i.e. one linking the policy rate to the real interest rate and another linking the latter to the useful life of producers’ goods, whereas regarding market structure, the more competitive the economy, the higher the labor share. From its solution using U.S. data over the period 2000–2014 it emerges that the persistent reduction in the policy rate on the one hand slowed down the decline in the labor share and on the other accelerated it, because the reduction in the policy rate was accompanied by a robust upward trend in the equilibrium real rate of interest, which increased the useful life of producers’ goods. In turn, to gauge the relative strength of these two opposite effects, the equation of the labor share is estimated by means of the autoregressive distributed lag method. The results show that the adverse effect of monetary policy through the useful life of producers’ goods was more than 12 times as strong as the favorable effect of the policy rate and on this ground I conclude that the monetary policy contributed to the decline of the labor share significantly, at least since 2000. As for the market structure, it is found that even if firms had and attempted to exercise monopoly power, it would be exceedingly difficult to exploit it because the demand of consumers’ goods is significantly price elastic.     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

Output price fluctuations,short-run profits and long-run industry size with input market equilibrium effects

Conclusions In this paper, input market equilibrium effects are incorporated into an analysis of output price fluctuations. In particular, it is shown that an increase (decrease) in output price may not necessarily lead to an increase (decrease) in the shortrun profit of a firm operating in a competitive product market. The firm's profit may not necessarily be convex in output price. Hence,ex-post flexibility in production does not guarantee the preference for price instability by risk-neutral firms. Finally, in longrun equilibrium, a mean-preserving spread in output price may increase or reduce the equilibrium number of firms.     

模拟统一碳排放市场的建立对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型

本文采用基于中国经济的DSGE模型,模拟在技术和政策的外生冲击下,建立统一碳排放市场对总产出、环境质量和CER实际价格产生的影响。分析结果表明,在政府制定好CER审核标准的前提下,短期至中期,建立统一碳排放市场具有减小总产出波动、提高环境质量以及减小CER实际价格波动的作用。而在长期,建立统一碳排放市场并不会对总产出和CER实际价格产生明显影响,却对环境有改善的作用。同时建立统一碳排放市场将会：使得财政政策的效果与未建立统一碳排放市场时的效果相反;要求政府对CER审核标准的定制更加谨慎,以应对清洁型技术可能带来的部分不利影响;对货币政策效果影响不明显。     

最低工资制在完全与不完全市场中的影响——一个理论分析框架

本文通过构建一个包含产品市场和劳动力市场的模型,分析了最低工资制度在社会、经济等方面的影响,并得出以下结论:如果企业是市场工资率的被动接受者,则推行最低工资制度在促进劳动者福利提升的同时,会以减损社会总福利为代价,同时社会总产出水平下降;如果企业对市场工资率有影响能力,则通过最低工资制度提高就业者工资率水平,这不仅会促进劳动者福利的提升,同时也会造成社会总福利的改进,社会总产出水平上升。以此为基础,结合当前中国的社会实际,对于最低工资制度的实施提供了相关的政策建议。     

Macro policy in the tropics: How sensible people stand

A model for macro policy analysis is set out, incorporating an inflation theory based on distributional conflict, output and current account adjustment mechanisms, and the money market. Classic structuralist results about contractionary devaluation and stagflationary monetary restriction are derived. Alternative closures of the model are considered — monetarism and external strangulation (or foreign exchange bonanzas) — and it is extended to deal with interest rate reform. Short-term stabilization issues are analyzed — monetary and fiscal policy, import quotas and export subsidies as opposed to devaluation, financial market complications, food subsidies and public sector pricing, and orthodox and heterodox anti-inflationary programs. Finally, medium-term processes of inflation, distribution and growth are described. An example of an irreversible contractionary shock which leads the economy from a distributionally favorable to an unfavorable steady state is presented.     

城镇化、劳动力转移与物价

从城镇化、劳动力转移的角度看,我国物价表现出的食品与住房价格持续上涨的结构性上涨是城镇化和工业化阶段的必然现象,但与各阶层的贫富差距存在很高的相关性,只有倚重财税政策和产业政策影响财富分配和资本、劳动力的产业分配,充分发挥信贷政策的结构调整功能,才能有效地控制物价。     

An empirical analysis of the unit labor cost-product price relation in the U.S. economy

This article tests for cointegration between unit labor costs and the level of product prices in four sectors of the U.S. economy: the aggregate business sector, the nonfinancial corporate sector, durable manufacturing, and nondurable manufacturing. A finding of cointegration for most specifications supports the existence of long-run labor market equilibrium for producers and suggests estimation of error-correction models to examine the dynamic relationships. In every sector except nondurable manufacturing, error-correction model estimates indicate there is a mutual feedback relationship between unit labor costs and prices. Controlling for deviations from full employment, oil price shocks, and the Nixon wage and price controls, the results also provide evidence of significant nominal wage indexation in U.S. labor markets. Throughout the economy there appears to exist both effective neoclassical wage and price adjustment mechanisms to maintain labor market equilibrium and short-run rigidities which may contribute to deviations from full employment outcomes.     

采取网络型的政府市场供给模式应对房价问题

面对不断飙升的房价,从理论界到政策层面对其原因都有不同的解读,但从实践结果来看对房价的治理并不理想。本文在综合分析理论研究与国家调控政策的基础上,认为创新措施采取网络型的政府市场供给模式是解决房价过快上涨的有效途径。文章着重对这一模式进行了分析,并认为此举对缓解供需矛盾、解决市场的信息不对称、市场操控、改变预期、稳定房价等都有非常重要的作用。     

我国的动态劳动需求及就业保护制度的影响:基于动态面板数据的研究

动态劳动需求描述了劳动力应对外部冲击的调整过程,是劳动力市场灵活性的重要体现,本文首次使用动态面板数据,对我国的动态劳动需求进行了研究,并检验了就业保护制度对动态劳动需求的影响。结果发现,我国国有及具有规模以上非国有工业企业的就业调整存在明显的刚性,遇到外部冲击时,企业需要2.56年时间完成劳动力调整的50%,对雇佣和解雇行为进行管制的就业保护制度显著减缓了劳动力调整速度。当经济环境变好时,就业保护制度减缓了企业劳动力投入的增长速度;当经济环境恶化时,就业保护制度减缓了企业裁减劳动力的速度。总体来说,就业保护有利于维护已经就业的劳动者的利益,但会使失业劳动者和新进入劳动力市场的劳动者寻找工作更加困难。     

Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis

This paper aims to analyse the feasibility of policy coordination among the ASEAN-5 economies. This is done by determining whether they experience symmetric responses to common shocks. Given that the problem of dimensionality plagues large-scale macroeconomic modelling, a Global VAR model by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) and Dees, Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) is used. The results in this paper provide some weak evidence of symmetric responses to the common (global) shocks of interest: a US monetary policy shock, a US output shock, a Chinese output shock; an oil price shock. Shocks from the US produced the most symmetric responses. The lack of symmetry in some cases has implications for further policy coordination. Since migrant remittances could provide an adjustment mechanism, further labour market integration is needed as it currently lags behind trade and financial integration in the region.     

Consumer discrimination,duopoly, and black firm entry: The welfare effect of subsidies

Consumer discrimination, to the extent that it lowers expected profit for black owned firms, discourages the entry of new black firms. From a social welfare perspective, consumer discrimination may be welfare reducing, since market output is lower than otherwise. If so, a policy intervention that subsidizes new black firms may improve social welfare. This article presents a simple model of duopoly where consumer discrimination exists with uncertainty, and the only cost of production is a “loss of sales” cost. Given the Nash equilibrium, in which a black and white firm must select a price to charge, conditions are derived for which a profit subsidy to a new black firm increases, decreases, or has no effect on social welfare.     

Impact of RMB Appreciation on Trade and Labor Markets of China and the USA： A Multi-country Comparative General Equilibrium Model

Since the recent economic crisis, the undervaluation of China's exchange rate has been a focus in the debate on the global policy mix. Using a non‐competitive input–output table, we establish a comparative‐static general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of real exchange rate changes on Sino–US trade and labor markets. The simulation shows that the impacts of a 10‐percent RMB revaluation on the trade surplus of China and the labor market of the USA are more modest than is generally perceived, and the negative impact on the output of the non‐processing industry in China is more significant than that on the processing industry. The Sino–US trade imbalance will continue to deteriorate, China's non‐processing trade surplus will decline and the processing trade will increase, with the combined effect being small. For the USA, labor‐intensive goods imported from China will shift to different Asian countries instead of transferring back to the US market. The simulation results indicate that the impacts of an RMB revaluation on both Chinese and US labor markets would be limited.     

Labor market adjustment under transition in Laos

Laos has engaged in an ambitious program of economic reforms, the New Economic Mechanism. Yet little attention has been devoted to the impact of the reform process on the functioning of the labour market and to the role of the labour market in mobilizing human resources. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of reform policy on the labor market and to show how a better adjustment of the labor market can facilitate the success of the New Economic Mechanism. The purpose of the paper is also to show how a better use of the information generated in the labor market can contribute to transforming the reform process into a process of sustained economic growth in Laos.     

Market Performance Implications of the Transfer Price Rule

The “transfer price rule” (TPR) defines a vertical price squeeze as an input price, output price combination set by a vertically‐integrated firm monopoly producer of an essential input that would not allow the firm's downstream unit to earn at least a normal rate of return on investment in the “as‐if” case that it had to purchase the input at the price charged independent firms. In its 2009 linkLine decision, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the TPR for the purpose of enforcing the anti‐monopolization prohibition of Section 2 of the Sherman Act. In contrast, a vertical price squeeze, defined by a TPR‐like standard, is an abuse of a dominant position under Article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. In this article, we model the impact of the TPR on market performance. We find that the TPR increases consumer surplus and net social welfare if all firms remain active in the downstream market. It sometimes induces the upstream firm to refuse to supply the downstream firm, and in such cases, consumer surplus and net social welfare are reduced. The impact of the TPR on market performance thus depends on whether or not an upstream firm can refuse to supply downstream firms on terms that would offer it at least a normal rate of return on investment.     

Employment adjustment in two countries with poor reputations: Analysis of aggregate, firm, and flow data for Portugal and Germany

This paper supplements aggregate time-series analysis of the speed of employment adjustment with evidence from firm panel and flow data for two countries – Portugal and Germany – sharing unenviable labor market reputations. The Portuguese labor market is often portrayed as terminally inert, while that of Germany as badly ailing. We report broad consistency in the results across data sets in favor of Portugal. In benchmarking Portugal against Germany, the adverse reputation of the former – if not necessarily that of the latter country – may have been exaggerated in contemporary policy debate.We thank, without implicating, two anonymous reviewers of this journal for their helpful remarks on an earlier version of the paper.     

Chinese RMB exchange rate and local currency price stability in ASEAN trade

The article uses trade data between China and ASEAN countries to test hypotheses related to pricing to market (PTM) and consequent local currency price stability (LCPS). The degree of price discrimination associated with real RMB exchange rate changes between China and ASEAN + 2 shows evidence of local currency price stability in some industries in which exporters may be less competitive. China's trade policy may have also played a role in the local currency price stability. The article finds no evidence that RMB appreciation creates a larger impact on price adjustment than RMB depreciation.     

Simple analytics of segmented markets: What case for liberalization?

Discussion about the liberalization of controlled markets in developing countries frequently assumes that the removal of price or quantity restrictions will lead rapidly to increased marketed output. However, when parallel markets exist, market controls may not depress marketed output and may actually increase it. Conversely, liberalization may not increase marketed output much, if at all. The benefits of liberalization will be greater where parallel markets are costly to enter, so that decontrol increases efficiency, and scarce resources such as entrepreneurial and administrative ability are diverted into the rent-seeking activity of gaining access to illegal parallel markets. This paper employs partial equilibrium techniques to analyze market controls and liberalization in the presence of parallel markets for foodgrains, credit, labor, and foreign exchange.     

WATER BILL ESTIMATION WHEN PRICE IS CRYPTIC: EXPERIENCE FROM WINDHOEK,NAMIBIA

For water policy to be effective, policy makers must know how water users perceive and respond to changes in water prices. However, it is not uncommon for water prices faced by consumers to be unclear. In Windhoek, Namibia, the marginal and average water price is difficult to calculate from the information provided in users' utility bills. This paper applies a hedonic pricing approach to investigate price perceptions of water users in a setting with cryptic price information. Using self‐reported water charges as the dependent variable, the pricing model utilises reported utility characteristics and other factors that may affect perceived price. Low‐income standpipe water users report a weighted average monthly charges of N$24.68, whereas users in high income segments report N$521.34. This reflects differences in service levels, possible subsidies to low‐income users and potential errors in respondents' understanding of their water price. Average price per litre (N$11.78 for the low‐use segment; N$1.89 for the highest segment of Tier 1 water use) tends to be perceived as higher by those with lower water use even though average prices in the relevant range should generally be identical.