Microsimulation of Business Performance

Microsimulation of business performance based on sample survey data is a relatively underdeveloped field, but its application in government economic policy formulation is potentially great since it can be used to measure the distributional effects of change rather than just average change. Techniques which account for the dynamic response of businesses to macro level price expectations have recently been developed (Kokic et al. , 1993). These allow individual level business performance to be forecast from sample survey data. In this paper we outline a general methodology for combining these forecasting techniques with Monte Carlo simulation in order to produce a microsimulation of business performance that accurately captures the true distributional characteristics of the underling survey data. Applying this methodology to Australian farm survey data, we show that these methods may be used to forecast the distribution of farm business production and performance within arbitrary subdomains of the surveyed population conditional on a given set of expected commodity price outcomes. The microsimulations reflect both the uncertainty due to climatic variation from one year to the next, which in the Australian context depends largely on geographic location, as well as the uncertainty of commodity prices.     

Formation of firms' production decisions in finnish manufacturing industries

Business survey data have recently been used in several studies to shed light on the formation of firms' plans and expectations. The main tool for analysis has been the multivariate conditional log-linear model. The trichotomous answers in a typical business survey have an ordering. This makes it possible to analyse firms' production decisions with a categorized version of Cox's proportional hazards model. In this paper the production decisions of Finnish firms are investigated using data from the Finnish business survey. The results obtained are largely in accord with the implications of the production smoothing model of Blinder (1982).     

The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys

Qualitative expectational data from business surveys are widely used to construct forecasts. However, based typically on evaluation at the macroeconomic level, doubts persist about the utility of these data. This paper evaluates the ability of the underlying firm-level expectations to anticipate subsequent outcomes. Importantly, this evaluation is not hampered by only having access to qualitative outcome data obtained from subsequent business surveys. Quantitative outcome data are also exploited. This required access to a unique panel dataset which matches firms’ responses from the qualitative business survey with the same firms’ quantitative replies to a different survey carried out by the national statistical office. Nonparametric tests then reveal an apparent paradox. Despite evidence that the qualitative and quantitative outcome data are related, we find that the expectational data offer rational forecasts of the qualitative but not the quantitative outcomes. We discuss the role of “discretisation” errors and the loss function in explaining this paradox.     

Challenges in the Management of Diversified Companies: The Changin Face of Corporate Labor Relations

For at least twenty-five years, researchers in general management have maintained that well managed companies succeed in achieving a tight fit between long-term corporate goals and their policies for marketing, production, and other functions. Rarely is the nature of this fit explored in detail or in breadth, particularly for diversified firms. While it is generally acknowledged that managing a diversified firm is different and more complex than managing a single business, our knowledge has been sketchy regarding ways to achieve this fit between functional policies and corporate strategy in diversified companies. The author presents the results of a two-part study which investigates how managers in such firms are achieving fit between corporate strategy and the labor relations function. The study throws some light on problems facing firms across the country as they respond to major shifts occurring in U.S. labor markets.     

Het rekenkundig gemiddelde stijgingspercentage – een ondoelmatige groei-indicator

Summary  In business practice it happens that annual growth is measured by the ordinary (arithmetic) average of yearly growth percentages. It is argued that there are better methods in any case. A method requiring relatively much time is least squares. Methods requiring very little time are a) determining growth graphically, using semi-logarithmic graph paper b) computing the geometrical average, which is nothing else than the n -th root (if there are n +l observations) of the ratio between the last and first observation.
In a table, a survey of bias and dispersion of three estimators is given for a few numerical cases.     

Inflation Expectations in Manufacturing Industry

Firms' expectations regarding the future are useful in understanding economic behaviour and can be used to produce short term forecasts. In this article, Paul Robson examines how price expectations can be derived from business surveys and uses survey data from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey to generate a measure of manufacturers' price expectations. This series can be used to tell us how the view of firms about future inflation trends has been changing and how firms are now responding to the strength of the pound.     

Performance evaluation of the LDR and the PSH with forecast errors

Despite its ability to produce optimal solutions, the Linear Decision Rule (LDR) has not had a significant impact in the business environment. The Production Switching Heuristic (PSH), which has shown promising results when compared with the LDR, has experienced some business application because of its practicability and flexibility. During aggregate production planning, forecast errors are almost unavoidable, but the sensitivity of these models to such errors has not been thoroughly tested. Insufficient attention has been paid to truly understand the cost effects of forecast errors and other important interactions. The study investigates these issues by analyzing the results of 740 simulated problems.Using the famous “paint factory” cost data, the sensitivity of the LDR and the PSH are examined under various experimental conditions. The factors controlled at different levels are: forecast error mean, forecast error standard deviation, demand pattern, demand variability, and cost coefficients. The results show that 1) the PSH is generally less sensitive than the LDR to forecast errors, 2) both forecast error mean and standard deviation effectively measure the severity of forecast errors, and 3) underforecasts cause less cost penalty than overforecasts.The outcome of the study has helpful managerial implications for aggregate planning related decisionmaking. It suggests that the use of the PSH could result in potential cost savings even if significant forecast errors are envisioned as long as the period-to-period demand variability is not substantially high. Also, BIAS warrants more attention than MSE in evaluating the extent of forecast errors and their eventual cost impact on aggregate production planning.     

Towards an Integrated Statistical System at Statistics Netherlands*

Changes in circumstances put pressure on Statistics Netherlands (SN) to redesign the way its statistics are produced. Key developments are: the changing needs of data‐users, growing competition, pressure to reduce the survey burden on enterprises, emerging new technologies and methodologies and, first and foremost, the need for more efficiency because of budget cuts. This paper describes how SN, and especially its business statistics, can adapt to these new circumstances. We envisage an optimum situation as one with a single standardised production line for all statistics and a central data repository at its core. This single production line is supported by generic and standardised tools, metadata and workflow management. However, it is clear that such an optimum situation cannot be realised in just a few years. It should be seen as the point on the horizon. Therefore, we also describe the first transformation steps from the product‐based stovepipe‐oriented statistical process of the past to a more integrated process of the future. A similar modernisation process exists in the area of social statistics. In the near future both systems of business and social statistics are expected to connect at pivotal points and eventually converge on one overall business architecture for SN. Discussions about such an overall business architecture for SN have already been started and the first core projects have been set up.     

Financial performance and the long‐term link with HR practices,work climate and job stress

Using data front a large financial services organisation in the Netherlands, this article reports a longitudinal study at the business unit level. The study addresses the question of which longitudinal relations exist between survey data on perceived HR practices, work climate and job stress on the one hand, and prospective and retrospective financial performance on the other. Data from 223 business units were available for this study. Eight scales were selected from an employee survey answered by 18,142 respondents. These were aggregated to mean scores at the business unit level. Financial performance is operationalised by a yearly profits‐to‐costs ratio. Correcting for employee and business unit characteristics, the eight survey scales predict 22 per cent of the variance in business unit financial performance in the year after the survey.‘Co‐operation between departments’ appears to be the most important predictor. Equally strong evidence was friund for a reverse causation sequence: business unit financial performance in the year before the survey was a significant predictor for four out of eight survey scales, especially for ‘co‐operation between departments’ and ‘job security’. The results underline the importance of studying variance in HR and performance variables within large organisatiuns, and the possibilities of using employee surveys in this research context. Limitations and implications of the findings are discussed.     

Operations strategy in an emerging economy: the case of the Ghanaian manufacturing industry

Operations strategy and its development have received a lot of attention in the operations management literature. However, as noted by Ward et al. (1995), an understanding of the factors that influence operations strategy development has not been widely studied. Further, how managers of firms in underdeveloped countries develop operations strategy has yet to receive any significant attention among researchers. This paper takes a look at the development of operations strategy in an underdeveloped economy, Ghana. Specifically, the paper examines the relationships between the business environment and the operations strategy choices made by firms in Ghana. The paper seeks to understand the influence that specific business environmental factors have on the operations strategy choices of low cost, quality, flexibility, and delivery dependability.A survey of manufacturing firms was carried out in 1998. The respondents (production managers in those firms) were asked to indicate the extent to which business costs, labor availability, competitive hostility, and environmental dynamism were of concern to them. They were also asked to indicate their extent of emphasis on the operations strategy choices of quality, cost, flexibility and delivery dependability. This paper presents the result of the analysis of the relationships between the environmental factors and the operations strategy choices. The data indicate that, among firms in Ghana, the two strongest factors that influence the degree of emphasis placed on operations strategy choices are perceived business costs and competitive hostility. Results are presented for both large and small firms, and for firms that are completely locally owned as well as for joint venture firms.     

A Stochastic Frontier Production Function with Flexible Risk Properties

This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures.An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.     

The relationship between economic development and business ownership revisited

This paper revisits the two-equation model of Carree, van Stel, Thurik and Wennekers (2002) where deviations from the ‘equilibrium’ rate of business ownership play a central role in determining both the growth of business ownership and that of economic development. Two extensions of the original set-up are addressed: using longer time series of averaged data of 23 OECD countries (up to 2004) we can discriminate between different functional forms of the ‘equilibrium’ rate and we allow for different penalties for being above or under the ‘equilibrium’ rate. The additional data do not provide evidence of a superior statistical fit of a U-shaped ‘equilibrium’ relationship when compared to an L-shaped one. There appears to be a growth penalty for having too few business owners but not for having too many.     

Dispute resolution and litigation in the construction industry. Evidence on conflicts and conflict resolution in The Netherlands and Germany

The construction industry is regarded to be a tough and competitive business characterized by short-term and opportunistic relations rather than being based on cooperative partnerships. In particular, conflicts and litigation have been claimed to proliferate in the construction industry. Upon closer inspection of the literature, it seems that the empirical basis of these claims is largely circumstantial. Using data on contractor–subcontractor relations in the construction industry in The Netherlands, we consider the extent to which litigation in construction is common. Then we compare the results to similar data sets on IT-purchasing both in The Netherlands and Germany, and to a data set with more general business-to-business transactions of larger Dutch and German firms. We find some evidence that the construction industry has higher percentages of transactions leading to either arbitration, suspension of the relation, or legal steps (1.6% versus 1.2, 0.4 and 0.6). The differences are however not as extreme as one might conclude based on superficial reading of the popular and scientific literature, and certainly not bigger than the differences between the other data sets.     

An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles

Factor models have become useful tools for studying international business cycles. Block factor models can be especially useful as the zero restrictions on the loadings of some factors may provide some economic interpretation of the factors. These models, however, require the econometrician to predefine the blocks, leading to potential misspecification. In Monte Carlo experiments, we show that even a small misspecification can lead to substantial declines in fit. We propose an alternative model in which the blocks are chosen endogenously. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework using a hierarchical prior, which allows us to incorporate series‐level covariates that may influence and explain how the series are grouped. Using international business cycle data, we find our country clusters differ in important ways from those identified by geography alone. In particular, we find that similarities in institutions (e.g., legal systems, language diversity) may be just as important as physical proximity for analyzing business cycle comovements.     

Het rekenkundig gemiddelde stijgingspercentage – een ondoelmatige groei-indicator

Summary In business practice it happens that annual growth is measured by the ordinary (arithmetic) average of yearly growth percentages. It is argued that there are better methods in any case. A method requiring relatively much time is least squares. Methods requiring very little time are a) determining growth graphically, using semi-logarithmic graph paper b) computing the geometrical average, which is nothing else than the n-th root (if there are n+l observations) of the ratio between the last and first observation. In a table, a survey of bias and dispersion of three estimators is given for a few numerical cases.     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

JIT现场管理特点分析

JIT(Just In Time)是由日本丰田汽车公司独创的一种生产方式。现已在欧美企业中推行开来,并产生了巨大的经济效益。而我国的众多企业在引进这种先进的生产方式时,由于没有把握其精髓,盲目实施,导致了失败。对JIT现场管理特点进行分析,目的是帮助企业正确认识、实施JIT。     

The Academic Coverage of Business Ethics: Does Economics Measure Up?

A bstract Economics and business classes are closely related and, in most colleges and universities , included in the business core curriculum . Courses in ethics and the social responsibility of business, if not required, are increasingly recommended to business students. The authors argue that: (1) a discussion of ethical issues is lacking in economics core courses while core courses in management and marketing contain extensive coverage of the topic and (2) this topic should be integrated into the core courses of all business-related disciplines. In economics texts, problems of efficiency are seen as manageable and uncontroversial while problems of ethics and equity are seen as controversial and theoretically intractable. Using survey data from the top selling texts in the principles of economics , intermediate microeconomics , the principles of marketing, and the principles of management , the authors show the disparity in the presentation of ethical issues between the disciplines of business and economics.     

CES technology and business cycle fluctuations

We contribute to an emerging literature that brings the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) specification of the production function into the analysis of business cycle fluctuations. Using US data, we estimate by Bayesian-Maximum-Likelihood methods a standard medium-sized DSGE model with a CES rather than Cobb–Douglas (CD) technology. We estimate a elasticity of substitution between capital and labour well below unity at 0.15–0.18. In a marginal likelihood race CES decisively beats the CD production and this is matched by its ability to fit the data better in terms of second moments. We show that this result is mainly driven by the implied fluctuations of factor shares under the CES specification. The CES model performance is further improved when the estimation is carried out under an imperfect information assumption. Hence the main message for DSGE models is that we should dismiss once and for all the use of CD for business cycle analysis.