中国资本市场的预期问题特征及其解决对策

资本市场是一个充满预期因素影响的市场。不同资金实力、不同年龄组、不同经验、不同文化的投资者心理预期不同。在有效需求不足的情况下,应采取多种途径,提高资本市场投资的预期收益水平,降低并尽可能减少其整体的系统性风险,增强投资者对我国资本市场的长期稳定性预期,力争使投资者对它形成良性预期,使资本市场和宏观经济确立起一种良性互动的机制。     

我国开放式基金存在的风险及防范

一、开放式基金存在的风险分析 开放式基金作为一种新型的金融产品,是一种收益共享、风险共担的集合投资工具,对于投资者、管理运作者和市场监督机构都是新事物.一项成功的投资活动至少由两个过程构成:(1)投资的资本产生增值回报;(2)增值资产的收益实现,即资产的本金与增值部分的变现回收.相应的,投资过程中的风险也包括两个组成部分:资产回报的风险和收益实现过程中的风险.资产回报的风险指的是资产回报变动的不确定性;收益实现过程中的风险是指在变现资产的过程中由于交易量的变动而引起的交易价格变化的不确定性,即流动性风险.二者共同影响着投资者的可实现的最终实际收益,许多投资者更加关注于资产回报的风险,认为是资产回报率决定一切.但是事实上,流动性风险也同样重要.例如,美国的Value-Line基金在1965至1986年间,年平均账面收益率超过市场平均收益率20多个百分点,而最终实际收益率仅超过市场收益率2.5个百分点,这其中的巨大差额就来源于流动性风险.     

充分发挥信息对中国资本市场投资预期收益的作用

我国资本市场中是普遍存在着预期因素及其影响的。投资者所进行的资本市场投资预期是与信息密切相关的。信息的有无、信息的多少和对信息的利用程度直接影响投资者预期收益的多少,从而影响到他们资本市场投资的多少。提供和保证充分的信息是发挥资本市场投资预期积极作用的前提。     

股东股票股利偏好对投资决策的不利影响及对策

一、股东股票股利偏好对投资决策的不利影响（一）导致投资者过高的投资收益预期和非理性的投资 股市的原本面目是投资场所,进入股市的投资者所应具有的正确收益预期是平均资本收益加风险。而眼下中国股市存在过多的投机行为,短期炒作频繁,换手率奇高,股东对股市收益预期明显偏高。     

我国证券投资者投资理念探析

在以个人投资者为主体的我国证券市场中,并没有形成保护中小投资者的利益制衡和保障机制,市场缺乏真正需要规避风险的理性交易主体,缺乏真正的风险约束机制,使投资者难以形成合理预期和进行理性投资.于是,"在这样的市场中,人们的行为受投机幻觉的支配,每个人可能都知道这种幻觉不可能长久存在,最终总要破灭.但是同时,不利用这一幻觉却又是愚蠢的".在此情况下,资本价格并不完全由其未来收益及其系统性风险决定,而是受到多种因素的影响,特别是信息披露不够及时充分,市场的有效性不足,资本价格并不能反映其收益的信息.     

美国风险资本市场财务治理结构研究及启示--限制性财务合同在财务治理中的运用分析

风险资本市场财务治理结构的主体主要包括风险资本投资者、风险资本家和风险企业家.以限制性财务合同方式将风险资本的筹资权、投资权、收益分配权及其他财务决策权在上述三类财务治理主体之间进行分割是美国风险资本市场财务治理结构的基本特征.其中可转换优先股和分阶段投资构成风险资本市场财务治理结构的核心.     

企业财务风险产生的原因及如何防范

<正>财务风险是指由于企业财务结构不合理、融资不当,致使企业可能丧失偿债能力而导致投资者预期收益下降的风险,包括筹资风险、投资风险、资本运营风险以及利益分配风险。笔者在此谈谈企业财务风险的成因及防范对策。     

利用绝对收益产品进行确定性投资

经历过A股市场周期轮回的投资者对其波动依然心有余悸,而近期债券市场的估值风暴似乎使投资变得更加困难,这一切其实都源于中小投资者对于不确定性认识的缺乏。从投资的角度而言,不确定性就是投资者对于未来的投资收益和损失的分布范围与状态不能确知。而投资最为重要的就是从不确定性中寻找确定性,也就是要取得投资的绝对收益。目前,构建绝对收益的方法主要是通过量化对冲策略,同时操作不同的市场与产品,     

利率风险压力测试方法探讨

一、利率风险概述利率风险是指市场利率变动的不确定性给商业银行造成损失的可能性。巴塞尔委员会在1997年发布的《利率风险管理原则》中将利率风险定义为:利率变化使商业银行的实际收益与预期收益或实际成本与     

资本资产定价模型在我国证券市场中的应用

<正>一、资本资产定价模型回顾投资于证券及其他风险资产首先需要解决的两个核心问题,即预期收益与风险。如何测定组合投资的风险与收益成为市场投资者迫切需要解决的问题。正是在这样的背景下,在50年代和60年代初,马科维茨投资组合理论应运而生。马科维茨认为,在一定的条件下,一个投资者的投资组合选择可以简化为     

全球投资者国别风险情绪对跨境股票资本流动的影响

本文分析了全球投资者国别风险情绪对跨境股票资本流动的影响,通过构造一般均衡跨期选择模型,刻画了投资者国别风险情绪负向影响跨境股票净资本流入的理论机理以及投资者风险厌恶程度的调节作用,并基于EPFR全球股票型基金微观数据和由大数据文本分析技术构造的全球投资者国别层面风险情绪指标进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,全球投资者对一国的国别风险情绪上升会推升该国的整体风险溢价水平,降低跨境股票型基金净资本流入,尤其是风险厌恶度较高的被动型、开放式和ETF基金;第二,一国金融市场成熟度上升和汇率弹性增强可以缓解全球投资者国别风险情绪对跨境股票型基金净资本流入的负向影响;第三,在全球风险情绪极端低或者各国股票型基金净资本流入极端高的时期,全球投资者国别风险情绪的影响更为显著。     

Equity returns,bond returns,and the equity premium in the German capital market

This article reviews the empirical evidence for equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market for the period from 1870 to 1995. Taken together, the studies reviewed provide convincing evidence that over longer investment periods, average equity returns have been higher than average bond returns. These excess returns, however, have been highly volatile and negative in many years, illustrating the higher risk of equity investments. Moreover, market timing had a major positive or negative impact on overall returns. Despite the historical evidence of a substantial equity premium there is still little equity investment by German households.     

The Value Relevance of Equity Method Fair Value Disclosures

We assess the valuation implications of the fair value disclosures made for publicly traded securities accounted for under the equity method. We test the association between investors' stock price metrics and fair value disclosures while controlling for book values on a sample of 172 investor firm-years during 1993–1997. Our results indicate that the information in the fair value disclosures is incremental to the information provided by both an investment's equity method book value and equity method reported income. This suggests that there is nothing unique about investments in publicly traded common stock that involve significant influence that makes the fair value disclosures irrelevant for firm valuation.     

How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous.     

When are investment projects in the same risk class?

If two investments have the same pay‐off covariance with the market but one has higher expected pay‐off, which asset according to the CAPM has most risk? One answer is that as far as risk goes the two assets are the same, because they have the same covariance with the market. The correct answer, pointed out nearly four decades ago by Eugene Fama, but long overlooked, is that investments have the same risk, the same returns beta and the same CAPM discount rate if and only if they have the same ratio of ex ante pay‐off covariance to pay‐off mean. This insight clarifies much of the conventional wisdom that surrounds capital budgeting and ‘risk‐adjusted’ discount rates, while also displaying the mechanics by which information arrival affects the CAPM cost of capital.     

The Demand for Life Insurance: An Application of the Economics of Uncertainty

Financial economists typically assume that capital income uncertainty, derived from investments in uncertain returned marketable securities, represents the major source of household consumption uncertainty. But, for many households, if not most, labor income uncertainty dominates capital income uncertainty. This study analyzes households optimal reactions to labor income (human capital) uncertainty that is derived from the possibility of their wage earners' non–survival. By introducing a risk resolution mechanism—an insurance market—and allowing for the possibility that future tastes may be state–dependent, simple demand–for–insurance equations are mathematically derived to explicitly describe households optimal responses to human capital uncertainty.     

投资者教育发挥作用了吗?——来自公募基金个人投资者调查数据的证据

投资者教育是保障资本市场平稳运行、良性发展的重要举措,也是我国资本市场重要的基础性制度建设。本文利用20000多份全国公募基金个人投资者调查数据,分析了投资者教育对基金投资收益的影响,并基于行为金融学框架探究了其背后的作用机制。以往文献研究表明,金融知识水平对投资收益会产生显著影响,本文研究发现,获取金融知识的渠道也会影响投资收益。相对于自己学习金融知识、相关工作经验累积金融知识、向亲戚朋友学习金融知识,投资者教育(如参加金融机构的投资教育活动、接受金融经济类课程或培训)更有助于投资者缓解趋势追逐、频繁交易、处置效应等交易行为偏差,从而获得更高的投资收益。进一步分析表明,投资者教育通过提高“理性程度”来提升基金投资盈利概率、投资总收益率和年均收益率的中介效应分别为19.41%、17.09%和12.75%。此外,不同群体参与投资者教育的积极性和受教育效果存在显著差异,投资者教育要更多采取“分类教育”的形式。本文研究对进一步加强投资者教育、更好地推动资本市场发展具有一定的参考意义。     

The Equity Market Risk Premium and the Valuation of Overseas Investments

There is little agreement among academics or practitioners about how to measure the size of the equity market risk premium, particularly when it relates to investments in emerging markets. Using monthly equity returns for 22 developed and 24 emerging markets covering the period 1976–2006, the authors find that developed capital markets have experienced significant increases in their degree of integration with the U.S. and world market indexes, while emerging markets remain at least partly segmented from those of the U.S. and the world. For countries that are reasonably well integrated into global capital markets, the authors suggest using the U.S.—based equity market risk premium. But when valuing investments in emerging markets, they recommend use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model adjusted for political risk and a measure of co‐movement between the foreign and U.S. stock markets. The authors also remind readers that the equity market risk premium is supposed to be a forward‐looking measure, and that the common practice of inferring the future from the past can be misleading, particularly in the case of rapidly developing emerging markets.     

How venture capital works

The popular mythology surrounding the U.S. venture-capital industry derives from a previous era. Venture capitalists who nurtured the computer industry in its infancy were legendary both for their risk taking and for their hands-on operating experience. But today things are different, and separating the myths from the realities is crucial to understanding this important piece of the U.S. economy. Today's venture capitalists are more like conservative bankers than the risk takers of days past. They have carved out a specialized niche in the capital markets, filling a void that other institutions cannot serve. They are the linch-pins in an efficient system for meeting the needs of institutional investors looking for high returns, of entrepreneurs seeking funding, and of investment bankers looking for companies to sell. Venture capitalists must earn a consistently superior return on investments in inherently risky businesses. The myth is that they do so by investing in good ideas and good plans. In reality, they invest in good industries--that is, industries that are more competitively forgiving than the market as a whole. And they structure their deals in a way that minimizes their risk and maximizes their returns. Although many entrepreneurs expect venture capitalists to provide them with sage guidance as well as capital, that expectation is unrealistic. Given a typical portfolio of ten companies and a 2,000-hour work year, a venture capital partner spends on average less than two hours per week on any given company. In addition to analyzing the current venture-capital system, the author offers practical advice to entrepreneurs thinking about venture funding.     

ESG preferences,risk and return

There are two primary factors that affect expected returns for companies with high ESG (environmental, social and governance) ratings—investor preferences and risk. Although investor preferences for highly rated ESG companies can lower the cost of capital, the flip side of the coin is lower expected returns for investors. Regarding risk, the jury remains out on whether there is an ESG-related risk factor. However, to the extent, ESG is a risk factor it also points towards lower expected returns for investments in highly rated companies. Though ESG investing may have social benefits, higher expected returns for investors are not among them.