夺地风暴掀起大变局

2007年的地产市场,“地王“频繁出现,土地交易价格屡创新高,部分二三线城市的地价也已直逼邻近地段的房价.在宏观调控背景下,土地市场的变化加速了房地产企业的洗牌.……     

夺地风暴掀起大变局

2007年的地产市场,“地王“频繁出现,土地交易价格屡创新高,部分二三线城市的地价也已直逼邻近地段的房价.在宏观调控背景下,土地市场的变化加速了房地产企业的洗牌.……     

土地拍卖显现出的问题和危险信号

推行土地拍卖，主要目的是为了解决土地出让“暗箱”操作产生的种种弊端。从近几年的实践看，这个主要目的基本上可以达到。但在实施过程中，却显现出了几个问题和发出了一个危险信号。     

地产市场，“大片”正在上演

上半年，全国地产市场全线飘红。入夏以来，地产市场更似火爆克隆电影市场，上演高价拿地狂溯——     

中小房企夺地续命

中小房企只能趁着房价仍在上涨的时机,不惜代价抢得一些地块,从夹缝中获得继续生存的空间8月22日,北京市房山区长阳镇18-02-13等地块(理工大学9号地)住宅及体育用地现场拍卖,北京万年基业上演黑马逆袭,从首创置业、融创中国与葛洲坝联合体、华远地产、金融街、泰禾集团、绿地集团、万科与住总联合体等20家知名房企中脱颖而出,以刷新区域楼面地价纪录的大动作将这一热门地块收入囊中。     

地方政府在房地产价格上涨的作用分析

形成近年来中国房地产价格迅猛上升的原因有许多方面。在这当中地方政府在房地产市场的发展过程中是用一只“有形之手”对土地市场进行垄断性控制，对城市房地产开发进行大力推动，从而成为影响房地产市场发展、推动房地产价格非正常上升的一个系统性因素。这个因素无法忽略。     

也谈“物业税”

去年年底召开的十六届三中全会，公布了《中共中央关于完善市场经济体制若干问题的决定》，其中明确提到：“实施城镇建设税费改革，条件具备时对不动产开征统一规范的‘物业税’，相应取消有关收费”。再加上今年年底广东省有可能率先实施征收“物业税”的报道，导致社会上对“物业税”的讨论纷纷扬扬。本界定“物业税”的本质、讨论“物业税”可能对市场的影响以及“物业税”的计取方式。     

Adaptation and Mitigation amid the Consequences of Failure

Societies once could choose between changing direction or dealing with climatic disaster; now it is necessary to do both at once. The best-laid plans for mitigation would be hard enough to fulfill in a stable climate, but they will be vastly harder in the climate chaos ahead. If simultaneous mitigation and adaptation are still achievable, such a difficult balance cannot also take on the burden of supporting unrestrained economic growth. The failing efforts so far have been dominated by a search for synergistic ways to mitigate, adapt, and grow economies at the same time, while wishing away the predictable trade-offs between these goals. Wealthy polluting countries have enforced this optimistic spirit in international climate debates, in part to counter the language of loss and damage, which they have seen as a direct challenge. Key to their effort has been a reframing of adaptation that flips the focus from the vulnerability of exposed populations to their resilience. However, the reality of implementing plans for resilience is running into problems, and those populations are instead taking up the banner of climate justice. Debt- and disaster-plagued Puerto Rico illustrates the failure of both adaptation and mitigation through growth and the promise of climate justice as a means to articulate other forms of balance.     

The value of tax benefits and the cost of liquidating versus selling failed thrift institutions

This paper examines the 205 insolvent thrifts that were resolved in 1988 and assesses the cost savings obtained by selling 179 of the institutions through assisted acquisitions rather than liquidating them. It is hypothesized that the cost savings were determined by factors related both to the future viability of the acquired institution and the particulars of the deal arranged by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. The added value by selling a thrift is determined primarily by the level of core deposits obtained by the acquired thrift. However, the branch structure and purchased mortgage-servicing rights should also add franchise value to the firm. In addition to these factors, the analysis accounts for the tax benefits and other regulator forbearances associated with the deals. Other characteristics of the deals are also considered. It is found that core deposits, tax benefits, purchased mortgage-servicing rights, average branch size, and type of acquirer, as well as some other factors, were significant determinants of the cost savings obtained through selling an institution rather than liquidating it.     

Understanding the accumulation of bank and thrift reserves during the U.S. financial crisis

The level of aggregate excess reserves held by U.S. depository institutions increased significantly at the peak of the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Although the amount of aggregate reserves is determined almost entirely by the policy initiatives of the central bank that act on the asset side of its balance sheet, the motivations of individual banks in accumulating reserves differ and respond to the impact of changes in the economic environment on individual institutions. We undertake a systematic analysis of this massive accumulation of excess reserves using bank-level data for more than 7000 commercial banks and almost 1000 savings institutions during the U.S. financial crisis. We propose a testable stochastic model of reserves determination when interest is paid on reserves, which we estimate using bank-level data and censored regression methods. We find evidence primarily of a precautionary motive for reserves accumulation with some notable heterogeneity in the response of reserves accumulation to external and internal factors of the largest banks compared with smaller banks. We combine propensity score matching and a difference-in-differences approach to determine whether the beneficiaries of the Capital Purchase Program of the Troubled Asset Relief Program accumulated less cash, including reserves, than non-beneficiaries. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find that banks that participated in the program accumulated less cash, including reserves, than nonparticipants in the initial quarters after the capital injection.     

Land rent and housing policy: a case study of the San Francisco Bay area rental housing market

In the San Francisco Bay Area, where residential rent is among the highest in the United States, an analysis of data from several sources demonstrates that high rent cannot be accounted for by higher quality, higher operating costs, or higher construction costs. At least one-third of the total rent paid is land rent. Despite increases in real incomes, very-low-income tenants in the Bay Area today have less income remaining after payment of rent than tenants did in 1960. High land rent is a long-term feature of the Bay Area rental market that results mostly from its geography, the density of its urban centers, and a strong economy, rather than from regulatory barriers to new multifamily construction. Deregulation is not a sufficient response to the effects of land rent on low-income tenants. Government should subsidize non-profit housing organizations, particularly land trusts that remove residential land from the market. Taxes on land rent would be a particularly appropriate funding source.     

Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty

In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The agents in our model are uncertain about the conduct of fiscal policy and act as econometricians by estimating fiscal policy rules that might change over time.We find that assuming that agents are not instantaneously aware of the new fiscal policy regime in place leads to substantially more volatility in the short run and persistent differences in average outcomes. We highlight issues that can arise when a policymaker wants to announce a policy change. From a methodological perspective, we introduce a novel way to model learning in the face of discrete policy changes.