Is there an Anglo-American corporate governance model?

This paper questions the existence of an Anglo-American model of corporate governance and capitalism. Significant differences between the UK and US models of corporate governance are identified. The UK is a principles orientated system based more on voluntary codes operated on a ‘comply or explain’ basis, whilst the US system is more rules based and litigious. The UK focuses more on ex ante protection of ‘outside’ shareholders, whilst the US focuses on ex post protection of share traders. Institutional investors are expected to play a more prominent and wide ranging role in corporate governance in the UK than the US, though the evidence on their voting behaviour and wider ‘engagement’ activity is not readily available. The explosion of private equity led leveraged buy-out activity in the mid 2000s challenges the efficiency of both models and could be a harbinger of a ‘new capitalism’; relying more on incentive compatible remuneration packages and less on public disclosure and market discipline. Alternatively, it could simply be driven by the tax advantages currently enjoyed by debt over equity, the special deferred capital gains (‘carried interest’) tax treatment enjoyed by private equity, low (long as well as short term) real interest rates (‘cheap money’), and rising equity prices.     

Is Numérairology the Future of Monetary Economics?

The paper discusses some fundamental problems in monetary economics associated with the determination and role of the numéraire. The issues are introduced by formalising a proposal, attributed to Eisler, to remove the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates by unbundling the numéraire and medium of exchange/means of payment functions of money. The monetary authorities manage the exchange rate between the numéraire (‘sterling’) and the means of payment (‘drachma’). The short nominal interest rate on sterling bonds can then be used to target stability for the sterling price level. The paper puts question marks behind two key bits of conventional wisdom in contemporary monetary economics. The first is the assumption that the monetary authorities define and determine the numéraire used in private transactions. The second is the proposition that price stability in terms of that numéraire is the appropriate objective of monetary policy. The paper also discusses the merits of the next step following the decoupling of the numéraire from the currency: doing away with currency altogether—the cashless economy. Because the unit of account plays such a central role in New-Keynesian models with nominal rigidities, monetary economics needs to devote more attention to numérairology—the study of the individual and collective choice processes that govern the adoption of a unit of account and its role in economic behaviour.

Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates: Gesell’s currency carry tax vs. Eisler’s parallel virtual currency

Despite the zero lower bound on the short nominal interest rate in Japan having become a binding constraint, conventional monetary policy in Japan, in the form of generalised open market purchases of government securities of all maturities, has never been pushed to the limit where all outstanding government debt and all current and anticipated future government deficits are (or are confidently expected to be) monetised. Open market purchases of private securities can create serious governance problems. Two ways of overcoming the zero lower bound constraint have been proposed. The first is Gesell’s carry tax on currency. The second is Eisler’s proposal for the unbundling of the medium of exchange/means of payment function and the numéraire function of money through the creation of a parallel virtual currency. This raises the fundamental issue of who chooses or what determines the numéraire used in private wage and price contracts—an issue that is either not addressed in the literature or addressed incorrectly. On balance, Gesell’s proposal appears to be the more robust of the two.     

The effects of ‘Gesell’ (Currency) taxes in promoting Japan's economic recovery

The traditional interest rate policy has lost its potency due to the zero-lower bound of nominal interest rates and the gradual accelerating deflation in Japan. Without stopping deflation, the Japanese government may face a rapid erosion of credit worthiness due to an uncontrolled budget deficit. In order to cope with this unusual situation, a non-traditional monetary policy measure is proposed. A negative nominal interest rate is needed to clear Japanese markets and can be achieved by levying a tax on all the government-guaranteed yen financial assets. This is a modified version of Gesell's stamp duty on currency for actual implementation in the contemporary context. The benefits and side effects of this tax for Japan are analyzed here.     

Expectations formation and the effectiveness of strategies for limiting the consequences of the zero bound

We use simulations of the Federal Reserve's FRB/US model to examine the efficacy of a number of proposals for reducing the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. Among the proposals are: a more aggressive monetary policy; promises to make up any shortfall in monetary ease during the zero-bound period by keeping interest rates lower in the future; and the adoption of a price-level target. We consider two assumptions about expectations formation. One assumption is fully model-consistent expectations (MCE)—a reasonable assumption when a policy has been in place for some time, but perhaps less so for a newly announced policy. We therefore also consider the possibility that only financial markets have MCE, and that other agents form their expectations using a small-scale VAR model estimated using historical data. All of the policies noted above are highly effective at reducing the adverse effects of the zero bound under MCE, but their efficacy drops considerably when households and firms base their expectations on the historical average behavior of the economy, and only investors fully recognize the economic implications of the various proposals. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 314–337.     

From edgeworth to Vickrey to Mirrlees: The Vickrey Lecture

William Vickrey'sAgenda for Progressive Taxation is perhaps his best-known work. It stands roughly half way between Edgeworth and Mirrlees, both historically and intellectually. Edgeworth argued that the optimal tax (and transfer) system equalized incomes by taxing above-average incomes at 100 percent and transferring the proceeds to those below average. Mirrlees argued optimality in the presence of disincentive effects, which Edgeworth ignored, placing severe limits on high tax rates. Vickrey proposed 21 tax reforms to make a practical system of personal progressive taxation workable. The two most famous were cumulative lifetime averaging and decreasing power succession taxes. This paper reviews the proposals in light of subsequent intellectual and historical developments. Many of the issues Vickrey explored are relevant today whether the tax system is flat or progressive and whether the base is income or consumption. Distinguished Address presented at the Forty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, Montreal, Canada, October 7–10, 1999. I especially thank Alan Meltzer for delivering the lecture when I was unable to travel to Montreal.     

Preliminary Evidence on the Allocation of U.S. Army Deaths from Operation Iraqi Freedom

Political influence on the use of the nation's war-making resources is considered in this study. Given the ‘tax-like’ consequences arising from military fatalities, rational political agents may engage in behavior that minimizes the negative electoral consequences resulting from the fatalities. An empirical model of the state-by-state allocation of U.S. Army fatalities resulting from Operation Iraqi Freedom is developed and tested. The results suggest that political influence originating in the White House is present in the allocation of fatalities from the military action in Iraq, but that Congressional effects, if any, are much weaker. In particular, population-adjusted fatality rates are lower in states that were highly contested ‘battleground’ states rich in Electoral College votes in the 2004 Presidential election.     

The Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: a Survey

This paper surveys the literature on monetary policy at the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Certain crucial insights regarding expectations have been neglected in recent research in this field. Taking this into account, the interactions between demand, confidence and supply shocks appear crucial for hitting the zero lower bound and escaping from it. Restoring confidence can play a vital role in solving the zero lower bound problem, thereby avoiding a liquidity trap.     

Transatlantic banking crisis: analysis,rating, policy issues

The key dynamics of the transatlantic banking crisis are analyzed and the five key requirements for restoring stability and efficiency in the EU/OECD banking sector are highlighted. Most important is the introduction of a new tax regime designed to encourage bankers to take a more long-term time horizon in decision-making and to reduce excessive risk-taking. Banks and funds should be taxed not only on the basis of profits but also on the basis of the variability—read variance—of the rate of return on equity: the higher the variability over time, the higher the tax to be paid. The quality and comprehensiveness of banks’ balance sheets must be radically improved and hedge funds should be regulated. The tax formula proposed here is an important institutional innovation designed to encourage “sustainable banking”. Moreover, new approaches to macroeconomic modeling are emphasized—including integration of rating into a macro model. Finally, the hybrid macro model presented sheds new light on the effects of the banking crisis, as it allows for a better understanding of the interaction of fiscal policy, monetary policy and innovation variables.     

Opinions on the Tax Deductibility of Mortgages and the Consensus Effect

Summary We present the results of a survey-experiment – using a representative sample of the Dutch population – in which we relate respondents’ opinion about a restriction of the tax deductibility of mortgages to their estimates about other people’s opinions. We find a strong consensus effect; meaning that respondents’ estimates of others’ opinions are related to their own opinion. Furthermore, we find that the size of the effect is not affected by the ambiguity of the question posed. The provision of arguments pro and contra the tax provision and monetary incentives for accuracy reduce the consensus effect, but only so in conjunction. Finally, we find that house owners display a significantly stronger consensus effect. Our results suggest that both cognitive and motivational factors are responsible for the consensus effect. Aside from the consensus effect, our survey gives interesting insights into people’s opinion on tax deductibility of mortgages. A majority consider a general restriction to be unfair, but a proposal to restrict only mortgages as of a certain size meets with much more approval. We thank Marcel Das and Corrie Vis of CentERdata for their excellent support in conducting the survey-experiment and two referees of this journal and Dirk Engelmann for helpful comments. Financial support from the Faculty of Economics and Business administration is gratefully acknowledged.     

Microfoundations and Hicksian monetary theory

Summary John Hicks was the first economist to use a general equilibrium framework as a foundation for a dynamic macroeconomic analysis. A critical assessment of his work in this area is used to evaluate the contributions of the ‘micro-foundations’ discussions of the 1970’s. It is noted that Hicks’s starting point, the question of the role of money in a general equilibrium framework, is precisely where the current debate has arrived some fifty years later. This delay, and the foundations debate, were due in large part to Hicks’s own attempts to interpret Keynes’s theory in terms of his own, original framework. Suggestions and comments from P. Davidson, O. Steiger, and the editor, as well as the participants of seminars in the University of Bremen and the Economics Institute of the Faculty of Statistics of the University of Rome are acknowledged without implication of responsibility.     

Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: Some consequences of debt-management policy

This paper examines the consequences of the scale and composition of the public debt in policy regimes in which monetary policy is ‘passive’ and fiscal policy ‘active’. This configuration of policy is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest, in economies such as the US and Japan. It is shown that higher average levels and moderate average maturities of debt can induce macroeconomic instability for a range of policies specified as simple rules. However, interest-rate pegs combined with active fiscal policies almost always ensure macroeconomic stability. This suggests that in periods where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is a relevant constraint on policy design, a switch in fiscal regime is desirable.     

The case for price level or inflation targeting—What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?

This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.     

Effectiveness of state-contingent monetary policy under a liquidity trap

Recent economic developments in Japan suggest that there is a growing interest in how monetary policy should be conducted under low inflation and nominal interest rates. In this paper, we first confirm the effectiveness of conventional wisdom against a liquidity trap, namely taking aggressive responses around the zero bound and variant of price level targeting so that it can intensify the policy duration effect, in the large scale dynamic general equilibrium model, the JEM (Japanese Economic Model). We then show that the optimal tangible policy rules around the zero bound are possibly state-contingent at the same time. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 364–379.     

Wie gut sind die Prognosen der Arbeitsgemeinschaft wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland?

Summary How good are the Forecasts of the “Arbeitsgemeinschaft wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute” in the Federal Republic of Germany? — The forecasts of the “Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute”, made since 1968 every spring and autumn for the following half year, are investigated. The forecasts for nominal and real GNP, private consumption, private investment, exports and imports are considered as well as the corresponding price indices. It is shown that the predictions are unbiased, thus satisfying the conditions of weak rationality. Moreover, compared with univariate autoregressive predictions the forecasts of the five institutes are efficient as well. Thus, with respect to this information set they also satisfy the conditions of strong rationality.

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Résumé De quelle qualité sont les prévisions de la ?Arbeitsgemeinschaft wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute? dans la RFA? — L’auteur analyse les prévisions de la ?Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute? qu’on avait fait depuis 1968 chaque printemps et automne pour les six-mois suivants de l’année. Il considère les prévisions pour le PNB nominal et réel, la consommation privée, l’investissement privé, les exportations et importations aussi bien que les indices de prix correspondants. Il démontre que les prévisions ne sont pas biaisées et que, par cela, ils satisfont les conditions de la rationalité faible. De plus, comparées avec les prévisions univariates autoregressives, les prévisions des cinq instituts sont efficientes aussi. C’est pourquoi ils satisfont aussi les conditions d’une rationalité forte.

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Resumen ?Cual es la Calidad de los Pron?sticos Conjuntos de los Cinco Institutes de Investigación Económica en la Repüblica Federal Alemana? — Los pron?sticos de los citados Institutos, realizados desde 1968 en cada primavera y otono para la siguiente mitad del ano, han sido investigados en este trabajo. Se analizan los pron?sticos del producto social bruto, nominal y real, consumo privado e inversion privada, importaciones y exportaciones asf como los Indices de precios correspondientes. Se muestra que los pron?sticos son insesgados y satisfacen asi las condiciones de racionalidad no estricta. En comparaci?n con los pron?sticos de modelos autoregresivos univariables, los pron?sticos de los cinco institutos son también eficientes. De esta forma, con respecto a la información disponible, también satisfacen las condiciones estrictas de racionalidad.

     

Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability

Using dynamic programming methods, we study the design of optimal monetary policy in a simple, calibrated open-economy model and evaluate the effect of the liquidity trap generated by the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We show that the optimal policy near price stability is asymmetric. As inflation declines, policy turns expansionary sooner and more aggressively than would be optimal in the absence of the zero bound. This introduces an upward bias in the average level of inflation. We also discuss operational issues associated with the interpretation and implementation of policy at the zero bound in relation to the recent situation in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 327–365. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551 Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E31, E52, E58, E61.     

Keynes's Approach to Money: An Assessment After Seventy Years

This paper first examines two approaches to money adopted by Keynes in the General Theory. The first is the more familiar ‘supply and demand’ equilibrium approach of Chapter 13 incorporated within conventional macroeconomics textbooks. Indeed, even Post Keynesians utilizing Keynes's ‘finance motive’ or the ‘horizontal’ money supply curve adopt similar methodology. The second approach of the General Theory is presented in Chapter 17, where Keynes drops ‘money supply and demand’ in favor of a liquidity preference approach to asset prices that offers a more satisfactory treatment of money's role in constraining effective demand. In the penultimate section, I return to Keynes's earlier work in the Treatise on Money as well as the early drafts of the General Theory to obtain a better understanding of the nature of money. I conclude with policy implications.     

How Influential is Economics?

Economists often claim that their discipline has a great influence on the economy. An analysis of the existing literature reveals, however, that little convincing empirical evidence exists. The two approaches used are subject to major shortcomings. The ‘Economics Production Function’ relating the input of economic ideas to economic outcomes, is faced with major estimation problems. The ‘Revealed Behaviour Approach’ of choosing to study economics is based on very restrictive assumptions. It is argued that the ‘Case Study Approach’ analysing specific policy instances constitutes a more promising avenue and should be undertaken to identify more general patterns of influence.     

The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Japan

This study examines the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Japan. We apply the new identification strategy proposed by Bu et al. (2021) to the Japanese case and estimate monetary policy shocks that bridge periods of conventional and unconventional monetary policymaking. We show the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy; a contractionary monetary policy shock significantly decreases output and inflation rates even under the effective lower bound. However, because the shorter-term and longer-term nominal interest rates are already close to zero, the magnitude of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables is modest.     

Federalism vs. the unitary state: options for English Canada in the event of the separation of Quebec

The two principle institutions of Canada as it is today — bilingualism and federal government — are designed to accommodate French-speaking people and English-speaking people within a single nation. Neither institution would be appropriate for the largely English-speaking country that remains if Quebec secedes. In that event, English Canada should reorganize itself as a unitary state with no constitutionally-sanctioned provinces at all. That would avoid the well-known inefficiencies of federal government, the duplication of bureaucracy, and the needless tax competition among jurisdictions. A nationwide sharing community would develop the common interest and common loyalty that an ethnically-diverse country such as English Canada requires for self-preservation. Without Quebec, there would be no geographically-concentrated languages or cultures which the provinces might conceivably protect.