Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000.     

Order Imbalance,Liquidity, and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

We used data from the Chinese stock market to quantify the amount of time for the market to converge to efficiency. Order imbalance may predict returns when there is no designated market maker. In spite of availability of the direction of trade information in the Chinese stock market, it takes longer for information regarding order imbalance to be incorporated into stock prices in China than in the USA. With information on past returns and order imbalance, it takes between 15 and 30 min to converge to efficiency in the Chinese stock market. The process of converging to efficiency depends highly on liquidity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency Measurement With Unbalanced Panel Data: Evidence from Tunisian Textile,Clothing and Leather Industries

This paper is concerned with the estimation of stochastic frontier production functions with unbalanced panel data when unobservable firm efficiency levels are related to explanatory variables. We use the weighted-means Instrumental Variables method acknowledged to R. Gardner (1998) which is a modification of the Hausman-Taylor (1981) procedure adapted for unbalanced panel data. The estimation method is used to examine technical efficiency in Tunisian textile, clothing and leather (TCL) industries during the period 1983–1994. Further, we assume a Translog production frontier where input uses are expressed in efficiency units and adjusted for the age of capital and types of labor. Firm-specific time-invariant technical efficiency is obtained using Schmidt and Sickles (1984) approach. The results suggest that the Instrumental Variables method produces more accurate estimates of the unknown firm level technical efficency. Mean efficency scores resulting from the MHT method is of 66.5%.     

Efficiency and Technical Change in Intertemporal Intersectoral DEA

A new procedure for the measurement of efficiency and technical change is presented, using DEA with three-dimension data (box data), pooling over sectors, regions and time. Until now, when pooling the data in panel applications it has been assumed that technology remained unchanged, so productivity change was entirely attributed to technical efficiency change. However, patterns of technology change and the decomposition into efficiency and technical change elements can be accomplished by means of restrictions on the general structure of the technology indexes. Under the assumption of non-regressive technical change, upper and lower bounds for efficiency and technical change are obtained. The new methodology is illustrated in an analysis of productivity growth in 13 manufacturing sectors in the Spanish regions from 1980 to 1992.     

沪港通对沪市股票市场有效性的影响

为了研究沪港通对沪市股票市场有效性的影响,本文选取2000—2015年上证股指,运用 R／S 分析并结合 DFA 统计量得出：沪市股票市场存在明显的长期记忆性,但沪港通之后其长期和短期记忆性显著下降。基于 ARFIMA 模型的预测效果与长期记忆性特征之间得出对应关系：如果长期记忆性显著,则预测效果好;如果记忆性不明显,则预测效果差。本文对沪港通前后进行长度为10步的分数阶自回归模型预测,结果显示 ARFIMA 模型对沪指收益率整体的预测效果较好,但沪港通开通之后模型的预测效果却明显减弱。     

中国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

以金融发展理论为基础,从理论上论述了股票市场发展与经济增长的关系;并将此理论应用于中国股票市场,对中国股票市场发展与中国经济增长的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,我国股票市场发展与经济增长不存在显著的相关性。     

股市周期、投资者情绪与盈余管理——来自中国A股市场的证据

将中国大陆1394家上市公司2004年至2007年期间5576份年报,分为熊市悲观样本组与牛市乐观样本组,用Givoly&Hayn(2000)的应计项目模型和Ball&Shiva-kumar(2005)的应计项/现金流模型进行实证检验。研究发现:熊市悲观样本组的应计利润以及非经营性应计利润较低,会计盈余下降周期与熊市悲观周期吻合;牛市乐观样本组的应计利润以及非经营性应计利润较高,会计盈余上升周期与牛市乐观周期一致。上市公司经营者(代理人)操纵应计项目以及刻意安排应计项目在牛市与熊市之间回转,使得熊市悲观周期会计盈余被低估而牛市乐观周期会计盈余被高估,以迎合投资者(委托人)牛市过度乐观而熊市过度悲观的情绪和盈余预期。     

盘活存量资产 提升使用效率——关于烟草行业基层单位充分发挥存量资产价值的探讨

结合基层单位存量资产实际案例,分析盘活资产方面存在的问题,继而分别从宏观调控、产业结构调整的角度,探讨盘活存量资产的有效策略,最后明确存量资产重新利用需要注意的问题,以提高资产利用率,实现单位创优目标。     

Separating Technical Change from Time-Varying Technical Inefficiency in the Absence of Distributional Assumptions

This paper proposes an alternative model for separating technical change from time-varying technical inefficiency. The proposed formulation uses the general index, developed by Baltagi and Griffin (1988), to model technical change in the production frontier function and a quadratic function of time, as in Cornwell, Schmidt and Sickles (1990), to capture the temporal pattern of technical inefficiency. In such a setting, all parameters associated with the rate of technical change and the temporal pattern of technical inefficiency are identified separately. Moreover, the proposed formulation is independent of any distributional assumption concerning the one-sided error term associated with technical inefficiency, and it can be estimated in a single stage with non-linear FGLS. Empirical results based on a translog production frontier, and estimates of technical inefficiency and technical change are presented for the UK dairy sector over the period 1982–1992.     

Supply Restricted Telecommunications Markets: The Effect of Technical Efficiency on Waiting Times

The paper is concerned with supply constraints in the provision of telecommunications services. As a measure of supply constraint we use the average waiting time for telephone connections. Duration models are employed to analyze a panel data set for 28 countries. In addition to economic variables, we consider the role of technical efficiency in causing supply constraints. Stochastic frontiers are used to determine the technical efficiency with which countries use labor and capital inputs to connect customers. When technical efficiency is included in duration models for waiting times until connection, we find that it is the major determinant.     

我国证券投资基金重仓持股变动对股票价格波动性影响的实证研究

文章采用了2006年第一季度到2008年第四季度国内证券投资基金公布的季度数据,运用动态面板数据模型对我国证券投资基金重仓持股变动与股票价格波动性之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,在牛市中证券投资基金重仓持股比例的变化与股价波动性成正向关系,加剧了股价的波动;在熊市中证券投资基金持股比例变化与股票价格波动性成反向关系,起到了稳定证券市场的作用。     

基于风险价值(VAR)模型在股市中的实证分析

近年来随着股市的下跌,国内各证券公司的自营风险逐步暴露出来。这也为我国证券业风险管理提出新的课题。本文主要对VAR方法介绍,以及VAR在股票市场上的应用分析,以供投资者借鉴。     

我国技术效率、技术进步与生产率区域差异的实证研究

本文用非参数Malmquist指数方法研究了我国全要素生产率的增长状况及其区域差异,并将其分解为技术进步和技术效率,同时采用增长回归法对我国地区之间TFP、技术效率、科技进步的差异进行了检验。研究表明:1994-2007年间我国全要素生产率年均增长率达到1%,主要得益于技术进步水平的提高,技术效率总体上呈现下滑趋势;我国各省市区的科技进步、技术效率、TFP变化呈现出较为明显的差异,其中TFP和科技进步变化差异最为明显,而技术效率变化差异不大。     

价格波动性与股票预期回报——基于中国市场的初步证据

基于国际资本市场数据的研究发现,股票价格的波动率和股票未来的回报率负相关,而且风险差异不能解释这个现象,文章使用中国股票市场的数据发现了相同的结论。在1998年1月到2003年12月期间内,基于过去一个月内股价波动率的对冲组合在未来六个月内能够取得0.32%的月风险调整超额回报率。M iller(1977)认为股价波动性代表了投资者对股票价值评估的不确定性和异质性,因为卖空限制的存在,波动性高的股票的价格更多地反映了乐观投资者的看法,因而出现高估价值的错误定价。文章分析认为M iller的错误定价理论能够解释股价波动率与未来回报率之间的负相关关系。     

我国石油产业市场集中度与技术创新研究

用产业集中度指数(CRn),分别从产业总体层面和企业层面对我国石油行业市场集中度进行了分析,得出我国油气行业的市场结构属于寡占型市场结构。在此基础上,根据石油行业的技术创新现状,深层次分析我国石油行业技术创新的制约因素,旨在提高我国石油产业技术创新能力,进而提高国际竞争力。     

The effects of accounting regulations on stock valuation and volatility: Evidence from the banking industry

Banking regulators and market participants learn from price signals in the stock market (e.g., Flannery, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 30: 273, 1998). Therefore, the system becomes more secure and developed as stock prices become more informative about banks’ financial conditions. Using a sample that includes major banks from 35 countries, this study investigates how accounting regulations affect bank stock valuation and volatility. The evidence suggests that bank stocks have higher valuation and lower volatility in countries that strictly regulate the quality of external audits and financial statement transparency. This study presents a comprehensive picture of the effects of bank accounting regulations on the stock market.     

Flow Signals: Evidence from Patent and Alliance Portfolios in the US Biopharmaceutical Industry

Integrating signalling theory and the portfolio diversity literature, we theorize that diversity in a firm's patent and alliance portfolios sends contrasting flow signals impacting its market value in a nuanced way. Diversity in an alliance portfolio mediates the patent portfolio diversity – market value relationship by suppressing the negative effect of patent portfolio diversity creating an overall positive effect. We test our mediation model on a longitudinal set of 225 US biopharmaceutical firms that were awarded 17,078 patents and participated in 37,744 alliances between 1990 and 2006. Our theory and findings contribute three novel insights. First, we demonstrate the value of a temporal lens in explaining why diversity in a firm's patent and alliance portfolios send flow signals that establish expectations among market observers and have performance implications. Second, establishing that patent and alliance portfolio diversity are temporally sequenced provides compelling evidence for the value of studying multiple types of portfolios, their temporal relationships and effects on firm outcomes. Third, since diversity in a firm's portfolios can send contrasting flow signals conditioned on the cognitive demands and proximity involved in interpreting the signals, firms that do not maintain a ‘signalling fit’ with market observers increase the probability of unintentional negative signalling effects.     

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper gives a comprehensive review of the literature on the interaction between real stock returns, inflation, and money growth, with a special emphasis on the role of monetary policy. This is an area of research that has interested monetary and financial economists for a long time. Monetary economists have been interested in the question whether money has any effect on real stock prices, while financial economists have investigated whether equity is a good hedge against inflation. Empirical studies show that money can be helpful in predicting future stock returns. Empirical evidence also suggest that equity is not a good hedge against inflation in the short run but may be so in the long run. The short-run negative relation between stock returns and inflation can easily be explained by theoretical models. If the central bank conducts a countercyclical monetary policy this will result in a negative relation between inflation and stock returns, while if it conducts a procyclical policy we could observe a positive relation. According to both theoretical and empirical studies investors receive an inflation risk premium for holding equity.     

金融危机时期公允价值计量对股票收益率和市场波动性的相关性研究

文章研究我国A股非金融类上市公司在金融危机时期,公允价值计量的资产和损益对股票收益率和市场波动性的影响。文章选取2007年第4季度-2009年第2季度7个季度的面板数据,运用固定效应模型进行回归分析,结果表明:公允价值计量的资产对股票收益率有显著影响,公允价值计量的损益的会计信息没有反映在股价上,对股票收益率无显著影响;公允价值计量的资产和损益都没有加剧市场波动,反而降低了市场波动,即公允价值在我国没有起到金融危机助推器的作用。