Establishment heterogeneity,exporter dynamics,and the effects of trade liberalization

We study the effects of tariffs and iceberg trade costs in a two-sector dynamic variation of the Melitz (2003) model extended to include a sunk cost of exporting, establishment-level uncertainty in productivity, capital accumulation, and material usage. We calibrate the model to match both cross-sectional and dynamic aspects of US producers related to export participation and the establishment lifecycle. We find a tariff equivalent of fixed export costs of 30 percentage points. We also find that a sizeable share of export profits is a return to the organizational capital from investing in export capacity rather than creating an establishment. We use the model to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find that eliminating an 8 percent tariff increases the ratio of trade to GDP from 3.9% to 7.4% and raises welfare by 1.02%. Along the transition, consumption overshoots its steady state, even as trade and the capital stock grow gradually, so that the change in steady state consumption understates the welfare gain. Models without a dynamic export decision generate more gradual aggregate transition dynamics and smaller gains from trade. Capital accumulation and material usage are important sources of the welfare gains to trade.     

Revisiting the evidence on trade policy preferences

Past literature has found evidence that labor market attributes affect individuals' trade policy preferences in a manner consistent with theories of international trade. This paper shows that, with the exception of education, the relationships between labor market attributes and trade policy preferences are not robust in US survey data. This suggests that either our proxies of labor market attributes are poor or our theories for what drives trade policy preferences need to be revisited.     

German trade performance in times of slumping euro area markets

While the global financial crisis had a strong impact on economic activity in Germany, the impact of the euro area crisis on economic activity in Germany has so far been relatively mild. Trade flows by region reveal that German firms have recently redirected their exports towards the remaining growth spots of the world economy, in particular to Asia??s emerging economies. However, a continued crisis in the euro area is likely to put a considerable dent in German exports. While market forces have already triggered the rebalancing of intra-European trade flows, German exporters may play a helpful role in this process if firms in distressed countries circumvent high entry costs by integrating themselves into the global value chains of German exporters.     

Effects of the euro on trade, capital markets and the international monetary system

The implications of the introduction of the euro undoubtedly reach far beyond Europe. How will the rest of the world be affected? What role will the euro play as an international trading, investment and reserve currency? Will it be able to function as a stabilising element in the international monetary system?     

Endogenous firm heterogeneity and the dynamics of trade liberalization

In this paper, we build a dynamic model with endogenous firm-level productivity that involves ex ante identical firms behaving differently in equilibrium. Heterogeneity arises in equilibrium as firms choose different dates to adopt a new technology. We investigate the effects of international trade on technological diffusion and show that trade has a generally positive impact on the equilibrium rate of adoption (and hence on firm-level productivity). In addition, the model can replicate the stylized fact that exporters are larger and more productive than non-exporters. Finally, we show how our model can be used to interpret the emerging empirical evidence on the firm-level productivity effects of CUSFTA.     

Intra-industry trade and heterogeneity in pollution emission

This paper develops a model of intermediate goods firms heterogeneity with respect to a pollution parameter to analyze the effects of intra-industry trade on final good output, pollution and welfare. By focusing on intra-industry trade we consider trade between similar countries. We analyze both trade between developed countries, and trade between developing countries. In our model, final good producers pay an environmental tax on the total pollution emitted in their country. Therefore, final good producers determine the overall level of pollution by demanding ‘cleaner’ or ‘dirtier’ intermediate goods. To focus on intra-industry trade we consider only intermediate goods firms trade. We analyze three scenarios: closed economy; open economy with no impediments to trade; and open economy with transportation cost. Our main findings are: i. a developing country closed to trade faces lower final good output and higher total pollution and is thus worse off than a developed country; ii. countries are better off under trade than under autarky, regardless of their development level; and iii. an open economy with low transportation costs are better off than an open economy with no impediments to trade.     

Firm heterogeneity and international trade in services

This study, using panel data on Japanese firms, analyses the relationship between services trade and firm heterogeneity. It finds that the number of firms engaged in services trade is far less than that engaged in goods trade. Further, the productivity of services traders is higher than that of domestic firms and goods trading firms, whereas the productivity of firms that export services beyond the boundary of their firm groups is higher than that of those that export services only to their affiliate firms. These results suggest that only productive firms can engage in services trade by incurring the relatively large fixed costs.     

Preference heterogeneity, wage inequality, and trade

We consider individuals who value product variety, and who can be skilled or unskilled as workers. Skilled people prefer to consume skill-intensive goods. We show that under plausible conditions an increase in the relative size of the skilled population increases the relative wage of skilled workers, thereby increasing wage inequality. In our two-country model of trade, an increase in the relative supply of skilled labor in either country increases the relative wage of skilled workers, and hence increases inequality in both countries.     

Regional bloc formation and world trade

The grouping together of neighbouring countries to form free trade areas or economic and monetary unions currently constitutes a phenomenon occurring in all regions around the world. How far has the bloc-building process progressed? How will the development of world trade be affected by this process during the 1990s? How can companies respond to the developments in the global marketplace?     

Social capital,institutional innovation and Atlantic trade before 1800

The growth of the Atlantic economy during the eighteenth century has been associated with developments in business networking to mitigate the hazards of communication in long-distance trade. Such social capital-based mechanisms reduced transaction costs, but also proved to have their limitations in the changing conditions of eighteenth-century international trade. This paper argues, using the example of the British slave trade, that efforts to innovate less personalised forms of commercial exchange gave those prepared to do so a considerable competitive advantage, and promoted the unprecedented expansion of that trade between 1750 and 1807. We suggest that this shift may be viewed as a precursor of modernising tendencies in business practice in Britain during the industrial revolution.     

Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market

This paper investigates the real-time effects of sterilized foreign exchange intervention using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our analysis employs a two-step weighted least squares estimation procedure. We control for macro surprises, address the issue of endogeneity, and carry out an array of robustness tests. Only when the direction of intervention is consistent with the monetary policy stance do we find that intervention exerts a significant influence on exchange rate returns.     

Revisiting the automaticity of phonetic symbolism effects

This research extends our understanding of the automaticity of phonetic symbolism judgments for adults and children. Replicating Study 2 from Yorkston and Menon (2004), we demonstrate that phonetic-based inferences are automatic and relatively effortless for adults, but not for children. Phonetic symbolism effects have a developmental grounding, with initial phonetic-based judgments not present in younger children (6 to 9 years). Older children (10 to 13 years), however, demonstrate phonetic-based effects only when cognitive constraints are not imposed.     

Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries

We derive a micro-founded measure of bilateral trade integration that is consistent with a broad range of leading gravity models. This measure accounts for cross-industry heterogeneity by incorporating substitution elasticities estimated at the industry level. We then use it to provide a theory-based ranking of trade integration across manufacturing industries in European Union countries. In addition, we explore the determinants of trade integration, finding that substantial Technical Barriers to Trade in certain industries as well as high transportation costs associated with heavy-weight goods are the most notable trade barriers.     

Country matters: Executives weigh in on the causes and counter measures of counterfeit trade

In this article, we present the findings of a study examining the exploding problem of counterfeit trade via the opinions of U.S. executives as compared to their counterparts from Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Tahiti. Their responses provide insight as to how companies in different countries are attacking piracy and consumer complicity with counterfeit products. Per our study, executives in Australia, Tahiti, and the U.S. had similar perspectives: they viewed the seller as the main driver of counterfeit trade for reasons of profit. These executives perceived the demand for counterfeits as being driven by desirable product attributes and the ease of obtaining them. Likewise, they cited two anti-counterfeiting actions—site licenses and reduced price/rebates—as being able to reduce the demand for illicit products. In contrast, South African executives observed the main reason for piracy as weak enforcement of intellectual property (IP) and the lure of exorbitant profits, with little value in any anti-counterfeiting actions other than special packaging. These executives put forth that South African consumers are complicit due to limited education and low disposable income, and the ready availability of counterfeits. Executives from New Zealand were the most optimistic, believing that piracy and complicity can be reduced by many anti-counterfeiting actions, including special packaging, reducing price, emphasizing product benefits/warranties, stressing the harmful effects of using fake products, offering site licenses, and listing of authorized sellers.     

Emerging economies and institutional quality: Assessing the differential effects of institutional distances on ownership strategy

The current study contributes to the institution-based view of internationalization that is contingent upon the home country development. We examine the differential effects of formal and informal institutions on emerging market multinational corporations’ (EMNCs) ownership strategies. Facing a large informal institutional distance that represents diverse cultural beliefs, EMNCs opt for a low ownership position that alleviates legitimacy threat, whereas a large formal institutional distance leads EMNCs to establish dominant ownership control. EMNC home market conditions, including market size and regulatory institutional quality, further explain the differential effects of institutional distances.     

Regional trade agreements and WTO accession of CIS countries

The successor states of the Former Soviet Union which are today members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) for the most part began to liberalise their trade regimes in the early and mid-1990s. At the same time they have pursued two major long-term strategies in an attempt to foster their integration within the region and into the global trading system: First, various forms of bilateral and plurilateral regional trade agreements were formed. Secondly, with the exceptions only of Turkmenistan and Tadjikistan all CIS countries have applied for accession to the WTO. Given the plethora of bi- and plurilateral RTAs and arcane and inconsistent trade regulations, WTO membership is likely to be a sine qua non to rationalise the trade and integration strategies of the CIS countries. Michael Roberts was a trade expert in the EU TACIS project “Support to Improving Agricultural and Food Trade among the CIS countries”, Moscow, and is a consultant to the WTO. Peter Wehrheim is an associate Professor at the Institute for Economics, Agricultural Policy, and Policy Information Systems, University of Bonn, Germany. Both authors have been assigned to the project by AFC Consultants International GmbH, Bonn. AFC implemented the project in cooperation with ASA, Bonn, and Agritechno, Bruxelles Support by these firms is gratefully acknowledged. The interpretations expressed in this document are those of the authors alone and should in no way be taken to reflect the policies or opinions of the above-mentioned firms or the Commission of the EU.     

A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages

This paper presents a general equilibrium trade model in which homogeneous firms choose a technology from a set of competing technologies and choose employees from a set of workers of heterogeneous skill. In equilibrium, the interaction between the characteristics of competing technologies, international trade costs, and the availability of workers of heterogeneous skill gives rise to firm heterogeneity. The model generates several of the stylized facts concerning the (apparent) superiority of firms that engage in international trade relative to those that do not and has implications for the effect of international trade on the skill premium and on observed industry-level productivity.     

Regional development of German foreign trade in the 1990s

With a double-digit growth rate, Germany's export sector was again very successful last year. While the industrialised countries continue to be Germany's main trading partners, growth in the past few years has been stimulated by trade with the booming regions of Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe as well as with Central and South America. The current crisis in Southeast Asia has led to an abrupt slowdown in the region's economic development. What will be the consequences for global trade in general and for German foreign trade in particular?     

World trade patterns and prices: The role of productivity and quality heterogeneity

This paper analyzes the role of product quality and labor efficiency in shaping the trade patterns and trade intensities within and across two groups of countries, the developed and richer North and the developing South. Recent empirical literature identifies two groups of evidence — the product lines evidence on different export strategies and sources of competitiveness across product groups and countries, and the aggregate trade flows evidence on a positive relation between the income per capita and both export and import prices (also conditional on the exporter). We attempt to provide a theoretical background for these findings and focus on the North–South productivity differences in a four country North–South trade model with two dimensions of firm heterogeneity. Differences in the firms' product quality and cost efficiency impose different competitiveness sources when entering more difficult markets and result in the observed export and import prices and consumption bundles across the rich and poor countries.     

Of markets,products and prices: The effects of the euro on European firms

The introduction of the euro was initially expected to boost trade by an enormous percentage. Following many downward revisions of original estimates the current consensus estimate amounts to an increase of about 5 per cent. In view of the initial high expectations this is often seen as a dismal result. It is, however, based on aggregate data and may therefore hide important microeconomic gains that arise even for a given level of trade fl ows. This paper uses detailed product and firm level data to shed light on these hidden gains. This paper is based on the EFIGE Report 2008, issued under the same title as Bruegel Blueprint Series Volume VIII. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 225551 and from the Bank of France. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission or the Bank of France. We are grateful to Andrew Fielding for editorial support. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors alone.