Using inverted Engel curves to estimate material standards of living in a household

This article demonstrates how to estimate latent total consumption expenditure or material standard of living in households by inverting estimated Engel curves. While the conventional estimator, total purchase expenditure, is unbiased for latent total household consumption expenditure, it is not variance minimizing since it is an un-weighted sum. In two stages, this article derives a variance-minimizing, unbiased estimator by first estimating and inverting Engel curves; then combining the estimators from the inverted Engel curves. The employed latent variable method allows for utilization of non-expenditure relations. The suggested method may help improve the accuracy in studies of consumption inequality and tax evasion.      

CPI bias and real living standards in Russia during the transition

The economies of the former Soviet Bloc experienced large declines in output during the decade of transition which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Yet there are many reasons to believe that measured output and official deflators provide a poor proxy for the change in real living standards in transition economies. This paper uses the Engel curve methodology developed by Hamilton [Hamilton, B. 2001. “Using Engel's Law to Estimate CPI Bias” American Economic Review 91(3): 619–630] to examine changes in real living standards in Russia during the transition period and to provide an estimate of how much the official Russian CPI has overstated consumer inflation. We also examine changes in consumer durables, home production, and subjective well-being to further evaluate changes in living standards. Our findings indicate that CPI bias has caused a substantial understatement of the growth performance of the Russian economy during the transition. Even just allowing household final consumption to be deflated with bias, we find that the level of real per capita GDP in 2001 may be understated by up to 30% compared with using a bias-corrected deflator. Our analysis of consumer durables, home production, and subjective well-being supports the conclusion that the decline in living standards has been substantially less than what is inferred by looking at official statistics on real output.     

The social cost of living index

Household cost of living indexes reflect household preferences; analogous indexes for groups of households require a corresponding concept of group preferences. In this paper I investigate the ‘social cost of living index’, a group index based on the Bergson-Samuelson social welfare function. I first define the index and examine its properties under the assumption that the investigator constructing it expresses his distributional judgments in an explicit Bergson- Samuelson social welfare function; I then examine the ‘maximizing society’ and the ‘independent society’, two cases in which the index can be constructed from the information contained in the market demand functions. In these two cases a Laspeyres index (i.e. the fixed weight index based on the reference consumption pattern) is an upper bound on the exact social cost of living index. In general, however, the assumptions required to place bounds on the social cost of living index are much more likely to be satisfied than those required to place analogous bounds on a household's cost of living index.     

A cost of living index incorporating a network effect

This paper constructs a cost of living index (COLI) that incorporates a network effect. While in this instance the application is to the telecommunications sector, the COLI are applicable more generally to network industries. The COLI permit valid welfare comparisons to be made by individual, region and country. Illustrative COLI estimates are provided for selected OECD member country telecommunications market data.     

The treatment of ‘quality’ in the cost of living index

This paper develops the implications of cost of living index theory for measuring the impact of changes in the availability and prices of goods on a household's welfare. It considers both the ‘goods approach’, which treats each variety as a separate entity, and two characteristics approaches: ‘L-characteristics’ and ‘H-characteristics’. L-characteristics are Lancaster's ‘linear and additive’ specification; H-characteristics are Houthakker's ‘heterogeneous’ specification in which the household consumes only a single variety of each product. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the theory for actual index number construction and relating it to the literature on ‘quality’ and ‘hedonic indexes’.     

Using food prices and consumption to examine Chinese cost of living

This paper considers two approaches to examining potential bias in China's consumer price index: (i) inferring true changes in cost of living from consumer behaviour; and (ii) creating alternative price indices to compare with official indices. For (i), our semi‐parametric estimates agree with the recent finding of a large understatement in increases to the true cost of living. For (ii), we focus on food prices and explore potential causes of bias. We find some evidence of a new‐good bias. China's large‐scale migration also causes changes in the cost of living that are not reflected in the consumer price index.     

Antithetic variates to estimate the simulation bias in non-linear models

This paper describes a Monte Carlo experiment, which makes use of antithetic variate sampling, to get an accurate estimate of the deterministic simulation bias in the non-linear Klein—Goldberger model. The computational efficiency is more than 500 times greater than in case of simple random sampling.     

Shapes of Engel curves and demand curves: Implications of the expenditure allocation model,applied to Dutch data

Section 1 reviews properties of the expenditure allocation model, particularly concerning income and price elasticities.     

Using house prices to compute the price of housing in the CPI

Rental-equivalence is often used in computing price changes of owner-occupied housing in the CPI. We use an alternative approach, employing interest-adjusted house prices. For Norway 2000–2008 our method yielded a 30% CPI-increase, compared to the official 17%.     

Testing for linear Engel curves: An application of NLES to cross-country data

The demand system, NLES, proposed recently by Blundell and Ray (1982), is shown to aggregate consistently across households. It is then used to analyse time series expenditure data of Korea, Greece, Israel and Puerto Rico. The empirical results reject linear Engel curves for each country.     

A non-separable generalisation of the linear expenditure system allowing non-linear Engel curves

This paper proposes and estimates a new generalisation of the LES that allows for both non-linear Engel curves and non-separable preferences. The empirical results decisively reject linear Engel curves on pooled cross section data and separable preferences on pure time series data.     

Explaining shapes of Engel curves: the impact of differential satiation dynamics on consumer behavior

This paper presents a formal model in which differential satiation dynamics of various consumer needs explain (not only describe) the shapes of Engel curves. In the model, individuals allocate their income to various consumption categories proportional to corresponding need deprivation states, a decision making process called matching. The model allows explaining some empirical regularities that other models have difficulties accounting for. It can, for example, reconstruct that income elasticities for food tend to decrease with rising income, and that goods that are luxuries at relatively low income levels can become necessities at higher income levels. Moreover, the paper compares the Engel curves obtained from the matching model with Engel curves obtained from a utility maximization model. While both types of Engel curves are relatively similar at high income levels, at lower income levels matching and maximization lead to very different allocations of income. The paper shows that a given amount of income redistribution leads to less additional welfare when individuals follow matching behavior than when they maximize their utility. Accordingly, to obtain a given amount of additional welfare more income redistribution is needed than a policy maker who (mistakenly) assumes that individuals rationally maximize their utility predicts.     

Use of a validated algorithm to estimate the annual cost of effective biologic treatment for rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives:

To estimate biologic cost per effectively treated patient with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using a claims-based algorithm for effectiveness.

Methods:

Patients with RA aged 18–63 years in the IMS PharMetrics Plus database were categorized as effectively treated if they met all six criteria: (1) a medication possession ratio ≥80% (subcutaneous) or at least as many infusions as specified in US labeling (intravenous); (2) no biologic dose increase; (3) no biologic switch; (4) no new non-biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug; (5) no new or increased oral glucocorticoid; and (6) ≤1 glucocorticoid injection. Biologic cost per effectively treated patient was defined as total cost of the index biologic (drug plus intravenous administration) divided by the number of patients categorized by the algorithm as effectively treated. Similar methods were used for the index biologic in the second year and for a second biologic after a switch.

Results:

Rates that the index biologic was categorized as effective in the first year were 31.0% etanercept (2243/7247), 28.6% adalimumab (1426/4991), 28.6% abatacept (332/1160), 27.2% golimumab (71/261), and 20.2% infliximab (474/2352). Mean biologic cost per effectively treated patient, per the algorithm, was $50,141 etanercept, $53,386 golimumab, $56,942 adalimumab, $73,516 abatacept, and $114,089 infliximab. Biologic cost per effectively treated patient, using this algorithm, was lower for patients who continued the index biologic in the second year and higher after switching.

Conclusions:

When a claims-based algorithm was applied to a large commercial claims database, etanercept was categorized as the most effective and had the lowest estimated 1-year biologic cost per effectively treated patient. This proxy for effectiveness from claims databases was validated against a clinical effectiveness scale, but analyses of the second year or the year after a biologic switch were not included in the validation. Costs of other medications were not included in cost calculations.     

Using job changes to evaluate the bias of value of a statistical life estimates

This paper presents a new approach to obtaining unbiased estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) with labor market data. Investigating job changes, we combine the advantages of recent panel studies, allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity of workers, and conventional cross-sectional estimations, which are less affected by measurement error. We find a VSL of 6.1 million euros from pooled cross-sectional estimation, 1.5 million euros from the first-differences panel model and 2.0 million euros from the job-changer specification. Thus, ignoring individual heterogeneity causes overestimates of the VSL, whereas the attenuation bias in panel data models leads to underestimates of the VSL. Our results are less biased than former results and can be used to perform cost–benefit analyses of public projects aimed at reducing fatality risks, e.g., in the domains of environmental, health, or traffic policy.     

The Laspeyres bias in the Spanish consumer price index

The CPI compares the cost of acquiring a reference quantity vector at current and base prices. Such reference vector is the vector of mean quantities actually bought by a reference population, whose consumption patterns are investigated during a period τ prior to the index base period 0. This paper shows that unless the price change between these two dates is taken into account, the CPI ceases to be a proper statistical price index of the Laspeyres type. Among several negative consequences, the most important is that this omission produces a bias in the measurement of inflation: the ‘Laspeyres bias’. Using Spanish data, the size of the Laspeyres bias is estimated at -0.061% per year, during 1992–1998. The Laspeyres bias in shorter time periods reached -0.122% per year in 1992, and -0.108 in 1997.     

Using the cost function to generate Marshallian demand systems

Limited data means that prior structure is needed when working with large demand systems. The cost function is a convenient vehicle for generating demand systems incorporating such structure. While the cost function directly yields Hicksian demand functions they will not usually have an explicit representation as Marshallian demand equations i.e. in terms of the observable variables. With fast hardware and modern software, however, this need not hinder the estimation of the (implied) Marshallian demand equations. This paper develops the formal theory for using cost functions in this context, and reports on initial trials on the operational feasibility of the method. First version received: September 1997/final version accepted: July 1999     

An estimate of the producer cost of liability for oil spills

Governments often impose liability for environmental harms on firms when direct monitoring of operations is difficulty or costly. In the case of oil production, little is known about the private cost of liability. This article takes advantage of a natural experiment to estimate the loss in projected future profits of oil and gas production after the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, which imposed liability on some producers and was exogenously timed in response to the Exxon Valdez spill. I find no evidence of economically substantial firm costs of the Oil Pollution Act’s liability rule.     

Using threshold cointegration to estimate asymmetric price transmission in the Swiss pork market

This paper employs threshold cointegration tests that allow for asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium relationship to examine the relationship between producer and retail pork prices in Switzerland. The short-run adjustments are also examined with asymmetric error correction models that are compared to the conventional symmetric error correction models. The results indicate that price transmission between the producer and retail levels is asymmetric, in the sense that increases in producer prices that lead to declines in marketing margins are passed on more quickly to retail prices than decreases in producer prices that result in increases in the marketing margins.     

Using data envelopment analysis approach to estimate the health production efficiencies in China

By using Data Envelopment Analysis approach, we treat the health production system in a certain province as a Decision Making Unit (DMU), identify its inputs and outputs, evaluate its technical efficiency in 1982, 1990 and 2000 respectively, and further analyze the relationship between efficiency scores and social-environmental variables. This paper has found several interesting findings. Firstly, provinces on frontier in different year are different, but provinces far from the frontier keep unchanged. The average efficiency of health production has made a significant progress from 1982 to 2000. Secondly, all provinces in China can be divided into six categories in terms of health production outcome and efficiency, and each category has specific approach of improving health production efficiency. Thirdly, significant differences in health production efficiencies have been found among the eastern, middle and western regions in China, and among the eastern and middle regions. At last, there is significant positive relationship between population density and health production efficiency but negative relationship (not very significant) between the proportions of public health expenditure in total expense and efficiency. Maybe it is the result of inappropriate tendency of public expenditure. The relationship between abilities to pay for health care services and efficiency in urban areas is opposite to that in rural areas. One possible reason is the totally different income and public services treatments between rural and urban residents. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust health policies and service provisions which are specifically designed to different population groups. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2006, (7): 92–105     

Using a choice experiment to estimate the benefits of a reduction of externalities in urban areas with special focus on electrosmog

Traffic noise, air pollution and electromagnetic pollution (i.e. nonionizing radiation, also called electrosmog) are typical negative local externalities in urban areas. They are side effects of human and economic activities (e.g. road transport, telecommunication) and they affect individuals’ well being negatively without compensation. In recent years, the increased number of mobile phone antennas in residential areas, and thus the increased intensity of radiated power, has aroused public concern, discussions and protests. The view of an antenna is annoying an increasing number of inhabitants. In this article, the stated Choice Experiment (CE) is used to estimate the Willingness To Pay (WTP) residents in the cities of Zurich and Lugano place on the reduction of these three environmental loads. Estimation results reveal that there is a positive and significant WTP for a reduction of air pollution and traffic noise levels to those limit values fixed by the government. Respondents also show WTP for reducing electrosmog and removing mobile phone antennas from their view, however to a lesser extent. In addition, this is the first study that estimates the benefit of a reduction of electrosmog using a CE.