Classical and Keynesian unemployment in Austria

The labor market in a macroeconometric model of Austria is used to determine the natural unemployment rate, full-employment (F.E.) output, and the F.E. real wage for 1966–92. Gaps between actual and F.E. variables are examined analytically and historically. Observed unemployment is decomposed into natural, hidden, classical, and Keynesian components. Classical unemployment is associated with the real wage gap, while Keynesian unemployment depends on the output gap. A rise in the natural rate is found to account for almost all of the increase in unemployment between 1966–74 and 1975–81, but an increase in Keynesian unemployment is the major factor in the rise of unemployment between 1975–81 and 1982–92. A fiscal shock to the complete model is found to increase real GDP for a year or two, reducing Keynesian unemployment without an appreciable rise in classical unemployment; the wage gap is eventually increased, however, producing a modest rise in classical unemployment.A lengthier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association, Graz, April 14–16, 1993. The generous finacial support of the Jubiläumsfonds of the Austrian National Bank for the research of which this paper is a part is gratefully acknowledged.     

产出缺口和货币缺口对中国通货膨胀的影响分析

通货膨胀形成的两个重要原因是总需求的过度膨胀和货币供应量的过快增长。利用HP滤波衡量产出缺口和货币缺口,并利用1999—2007年的季度时间数据检验两者对中国通货膨胀的影响。结果表明,产出缺12和货币缺口都是中国通货膨胀的重要原因,且货币缺口对中国通货膨胀的影响远远大于产出缺口影响。     

Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?

This paper analyses the effect of measurement error in the output gap on efficient monetary policy rules in a simple estimated model of the US economy. While it is a well-known result that such additive uncertainty does not affect the optimal feedback rule in a linear-quadratic framework, it is shown that output gap uncertainty can have a significant effect on the efficient response coefficients in restricted instrument rules such as the popular Taylor rule. Output gap uncertainty reduces the response to the current estimated output gap relative to current inflation and may partly explain why the parameters in estimated Taylor rules are often much less than what optimal control exercises which assume the state of the economy is known suggest. First version received: September 2000/Final version received: February 2001     

当前中国宏观经济分析--兼论现阶段中国经济周期的阶段

分析当前中国宏观经济形势,其实就是判断中国经济目前所处周期的阶段。但是,在实践中要区分周期的四个阶段或转折点,是极其困难的。本文从两个层次考察当前中国经济周期的阶段。首先是缺口理论、总需求－总供给（AS－AS）模型、IS－LM模型这几种工具的综合分析;其次分析GDP增长率、失业率、价格指数这些重要宏观经济变量。这些工具和变量中,最有价值的是产出缺口理论和价格指数。通过对这些工具和变量的分析,本文的最后结论是：当前中国经济确实了明显转机,出现了回升的系列迹象,正在步入复苏阶段,但并示真正稳定走出低谷或萧条。     

Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.     

The European Commission’s new NAIRU: Does it deliver?

The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates – in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors, we run counterfactual simulations applying 1SD shocks to actual unemployment and to the structural variable – real unit labour costs. We find that the NAIRU in its new specification is still largely determined by actual unemployment. This calls in question both the interpretation of potential output estimates as barriers to more vigorous inflation-stable economic activity and the accuracy of structural deficit figures.     

Macroeconomic policies and output fluctuations in slovakia: Application of the taylor rule

Applying the Taylor rule, this paper finds that real output for Slovakia is positively influenced by real appreciation and world output, and negatively affected by the expected inflation rate, real government deficit, the euro interest rate, and the U.S. federal funds rate. Policy implications are that the Taylor rule works well for Slovakia, that expansionary fiscal policy may crowd out private spending and would not raise output, and that the conventional wisdom of devaluating a currency to stimulate the economy would not apply to Slovakia. (JEL: E52 E62 F41 O52) I am grateful to an anonymous referee for very insightful comments. Any errors are the author’s responsibility.     

Improved output gaps with financial cycle information? An application to G7 countries’ new Keynesian Phillips curves

In search for more robust cyclical imbalance indicators, recent research has highlighted the interactions between business and financial cycles. Output gap formulations increasingly take imbalances of the financial cycle into account, postulating finance-neutral output gaps (FNGAPs). To test their increased explanatory power in econometric models, we compare FNGAPs to univariate output gaps in their ability to explain inflation dynamics in hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curves. Results indicate FNGAPs to exercise (dis)inflationary pressure, but not to outperform traditional output gaps. Nonetheless, they have become increasingly significant in the course of the 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis.     

科技投入与科技产出的关联分析及趋势预测

本文基于2002—2007年的年度数据,采用灰色系统理论方法,对我国科技产出与科技投入及其关联关系进行分析和预测。结果显示:目前我国科技成果登记数的发展主要由科技活动人员投入推动,属于低层次的劳动密集型科技发展模式,预计2008—2012年这种状况将得到一定程度的改善;技术市场成交额和发明专利产出数受科技活动经费的影响最大。     

What determines China's inflation?

We examine determinants of inflation in China. Analyses of both year-on-year and month-on-month growth data confirm that excess liquidity, output gap, housing prices, and stock prices positively affect inflation. Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during the initial five months and disappear after ten months. Effects of real interest rates and exchange rates on inflation are relatively weak. Our results suggest that the output gap is as important as excess liquidity in explaining the inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor asset prices given their spillovers to inflation. Currently liquidity measures are still central for controlling inflation, but further liberalization of interest rates and exchange rates are crucial.     

中国居民收入差距的变动趋势——基于双二元动态框架的实证

为揭示城乡转换和经济开放双重约束下中国居民收入差距变动的总体趋势和特征,文章构建了一个四部门的双二元动态分析框架,并检验了其现实适用性,实证结果较好地支持了这一分析框架的有效性,研究表明:巨大城乡差距的存在决定了我国居民收入分配总体上仍将呈现出“倒U”趋势,而对外经济开放则会显著影响到这一过程的实现形式;从根本上看,重新审视二元结构政策,消除收入分配的平均主义倾向,进一步加快城镇化进程、逐步有序地推动对外开放构成了优化我国收入分配结构、逐步缩小居民收入差距的基本约束。     

要素错配与中国工业增长

采用一个测度要素错配对总生产率效应的核算框架,使用中国工业1994～2011年两位数行业的数据,在行业层面上研究了要素错配对产出、生产率的影响。结果显示,行业间的生产率增长和要素配置扭曲程度均存在很大差异,2009～2011年要素错配引起的产出缺口约为29％,通过优化要素配置提升中国工业增长效率的潜力很大。分行业来看,资源垄断性行业存在严重的资本和劳动错配;劳动配置效应比较大的行业主要是劳动力不足的技术密集型行业和劳动力过剩的劳动密集型行业。分要素来看,资本错配程度更高,资本投入和资本配置效应对产出增长的作用更大。     

Central Bank transparency in theory and practice

We study the effects of Central Bank transparency on inflation and the output gap. Our intention is to illustrate, with the help of a small analytical model, how an imperfectly transparent Central Bank affects the two main macroeconomic variables, inflation and the output gap. The model tells us that transparency affects the variability of inflation and output but not their average levels. Then we examine the extent to which this conjecture is justified by the index of transparency constructed by Eijffinger and Geraats. Given the limitations of such indices, we only examine the correlations between the index of transparency and the macro variables in question. This analysis shows that the average magnitudes are not affected by transparency but their variability is. In the case of inflation, its variability benefits from the reduction of transparency and about 50% is explained by the variability in the transparency index. The effect on output volatility on the other hand is less clear, and in any case transparency seems to increase it rather than decrease it.