How Fat is the Top Tail of the Wealth Distribution?

Differential unit non‐response in household wealth surveys biases estimates of top tail wealth shares downward. Using Monte Carlo evidence, I show that adding only a few extreme observations to wealth surveys is sufficient to remove the downward bias. Combining extreme wealth observations from Forbes World's billionaires with the Survey of Consumer Finances, the Wealth and Assets Survey, and the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, I provide new improved estimates of top tail wealth in the United States, the United Kingdom, and nine euro area countries. These new estimates indicate significantly higher top wealth shares than those calculated from the wealth surveys alone.     

Demand,Supply, and Labor Market Analysis

Our previous research argued that interest payments on consumer debt should be subtracted from household income to measure poverty. We estimated 4 million additional poor Americans in 2007, calling them "debt poor." This paper finds that the debt poor are somewhat like the poor (they are unlikely to own a home or have private health insurance), somewhat like middle-class households (race), and in-between in other ways (education levels). Debt poor households were likely middle class once, having access to considerable consumer credit; but following a loss of income, their large debt burden put their living standard below their poverty threshold.     

Did households’ time preference change due to the Great Recession?

Household time preference for US households, as measured by the planning horizon, was fairly stable for many years, but sharply changed with the onset of the Great Recession. Based on an analysis of a combination of the 1992–2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) datasets, time preference increased in 2010 and remained high in 2013, indicating households were less patient after the onset of the recession. This pattern held up even after controlling for household characteristics.     

城市家庭的经济条件、理财意识和投资借贷行为——来自全国24个城市的消费金融调查

消费金融调研是获得消费金融研究数据的一个重要途径。清华大学在2010年开展了面向全国城市居民家庭的消费金融调研。本文择要介绍了本次调研的一些成果,包括居民家庭的资产负债情况、家庭的收支状况、家庭的投资和借贷行为,以及家庭其他方面的理财意识和行为等。最后,根据调研结果对我国城市居民家庭金融的几个特点进行了总结。     

Till Death Do Us Part or I Get My Pension? Wives' Pension Holding and Marital Dissolution in the United States

Wives' financial independence gained from their pension may increase the risk of marital dissolution, especially when wives are approaching retirement age (the older wives' independence hypothesis). Applying single and simultaneous equations probit models to data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigate the effect of wives' pension holding in 1984 on the risk of subsequent marital dissolution. Results from the single equation model appear to support the older wives' independence hypothesis. However, results from the simultaneous equations model suggest that interpreting the single equation results as a sign of older wives' economic independence may be misleading.
JEL classification : C 33; D 31; J 12; J 32     

基于养老资产的准法定财富标志设计构想

我国目前正面临作为现代经济稳定器的财富标志供应不足的问题。针对国内养老产业因微利甚至无利而普遍举步维艰、融资困难的局面,建议参考美国养老REITS的经验,设计并创建适合我国国情的依托养老资产的准法定财富标志体系,使融资、开发、运营等环节主体以及政府都扮演相应的角色,实现业务环节细分,同时分摊风险和共享收益。如此,既可以通过制度创新为我国打造一种全新可靠的财富标志,高效吞吐流动性,又能为处于融资困境中的养老行业提供前进的动力,仅从经济层面看即可谓一举两得,更遑论其功德无量的社会意义。     

我国城镇居民消费行为区域异质分析——基于动态面板分位数回归视角

笔者采用面板模型识别中的变系数变截距检验方法将全国31个省份划成5个区域,使得区域内的模型变为面板变截距模型,然后采用动态面板分位数回归方法对我国城镇居民的消费行为进行区域异质分析。研究结果表明,采用面板模型识别中的变系数变截距检验方法在区域划分中具有一定的优势,目前我国城镇居民消费行为存在显著的区域异质性。     

Does COBRA reduce the probability that job separators return to work?

This study examines a decade of individual-level US employment and insurance information to investigate whether federally mandated Consolidated Omnibus Reconciliation Act (COBRA) regulation affects post-separation employment activity. The empirical approach addresses the possibility that COBRA enrollment is endogenous with respect to post-separation employment outcomes. The main finding is that, although COBRA enrollees are 5 percentage points less likely to become re-employed, this relationship is not causal. Rather, individuals with lower probabilities of becoming re-employed tend to enroll in COBRA. The reason appears to be because, when compared to subjects who voluntarily leave for other jobs, subjects who separate for other reasons not only are less likely to become re-employed, but they also are approximately 23% more likely to enroll in COBRA.     

Pension profile preferences: the influence of trust and expected expenses

This paper studies the influence of people’s expectations about expenses during retirement and trust in pension funds on preferences for different pension arrangements. Although most workers prefer a flat-rate annuity, many workers want to deviate from it. The most popular option is a high/low, annuity-based profile, followed by a partial lump sum payment. Workers who expect declining expenses during retirement are more likely to opt for a high/low annuity-based pension and/or a lump sum payment at retirement. Furthermore, workers and pensioners who do not trust their pension fund are more likely to prefer a lump sum over annuity-based arrangements.     

Demand system estimation in the absence of price data: an application of Stone-Lewbel price indices

This article evaluates the feasibility of estimating a system of demand equations in the absence of price information using the approach developed by Lewbel (1989). Stone-Lewbel (SL) price indices for commodity groups are constructed using information on the budget shares and the Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) of the goods comprising the commodity groups, which allows for household-level prices to be recovered. This study evaluates how susceptible are elasticities and marginal effects estimates from traditional parametric demand systems to the CPI used in the construction of the SL prices. To do this, three alternative regional CPIs are considered for the construction of the SL prices: monthly, quarterly and a constant (unity) price index. Elasticities and marginal effect estimates are computed for eight food commodity groups using the Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) model as the parametric demand system and data from the United States Consumer Expenditure Survey. The estimates proved to be robust to the alternative regional CPIs considered in the construction of SL price indices, even to the absence of one. Hence, the results suggest that it is possible to accurately estimate a demand system even in the absence of price information.     

大股东的所有权与企业的投资行为研究

Jensen和Meckling早在1976年就指出股权结构影响企业价值,而这一过程是通过影响投资实现的,但是一直缺乏有说服力的经验结果的支持。本文以2004～2007年1039家上市公司共4156个观察值为研究样本,从第一大股东股权的视角出发,研究了股权结构与公司投资水平之间的关系。研究发现,中国上市公司第一大股东的持股比例与公司的投资支出之间存在“下降-上升-下降”的“倒N”型的非线性关系;进一步研究后发现,持股比例在10％～20％的区间投资水平达到最小值,在60％～70％的区间达到最大值。但是这种“倒N”型的非线性关系只存在于非国家控股的公司,当第一大股东为国家股时,这种非线性关系会变得不显著。本文的研究为治理当前我国企业普遍存在的非效率投资、提升企业价值提供了经验证据。     

Innovation performance across Europe

The innovation performance of firms is primarily determined by their own innovative activities and the interaction with their innovation-related environment. This environment typically differs among countries. We assess empirically these differences on firms' innovation performance. To that end we first estimate the relationship between an aggregate innovation input measure and an aggregate innovation output measure, thereby explicitly controlling for structural differences between countries. We then consider the extent to which firms located in a particular country perform better or worse than this estimated benchmark performance. The analysis is based on a panel dataset that we have constructed from Eurostat's first and second Community Innovation Survey. In order to control for possible data contamination we employ an outlier-robust estimator. It appears that among the fourteen countries considered Italy, Germany and Ireland offer an environment that facilitates most the transformation of innovation-related inputs into commercial outputs while the environment in Denmark is the least facilitating.     

通货膨胀冲击的财产再分配效应——基于中美两国的比较研究

本文利用微观调查数据研究了中美两国通胀冲击的财产再分配效应。本文的定量研究结果表明,通胀冲击将侵蚀中国家庭部门的财产,并进一步恶化家庭间的财产分布;而美国的情况却截然相反。从通胀再分配效应的视角出发,本文建议我国在制定货币政策时应当更加重视民生目标,逐步建立起多种形式的通胀补贴制度,以增强社会底层的通胀承受能力。     

延迟退休年龄与养老保险收支余额:作用机制及政策效应

文章通过连续时间养老金收支模型分析认为延迟退休年龄对养老保险计划收支余额的影响来自四个方面的效应,即缴费年限效应、领取年限效应、替代率效应和差异效应。改革的最终效果是上述四种效应共同作用的结果。短期看,前两种效应占据主导;长期看,后两种效应也具有显著影响。延迟退休年龄的政策效果和工资增长率、养老金增长率、改革速度以及未来参保人口结构有关。理论分析和实证检验结果表明,无论从改革过程还是从对养老保险计划收支余额的影响看,延迟退休年龄都是一个复杂而渐进的过程,延迟退休年龄必将减轻政府在养老保险方面负担的传统说法并不全面。     

养老保险基金安全运行的风险因素分析

目前中国养老保险基金运行中存在着一定风险,为确保养老保险基金的安全运行,需要完善养老保险法律体系、建立财政对养老保险基金的拨付机制、探索高效的基金运营管理体制,以及强化养老保险信息化建设等。