中国劳动收入比重下降的宏观经济效应——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

本文运用中国省级面板数据,应用面板数据协整分析方法实证研究了劳动收入比重变动对国内需求和总产出的影响效应。实证结果表明,我国国内需求体系属于工资领导型,提高劳动收入比重不仅有利于居民消费扩张,而且更有利于促进经济增长。这一研究具有重要的政策含义:提高劳动收入比重和促进经济增长同等重要,并且两者并不矛盾,无论是短期和长期,提高劳动收入比重是改善国民收入分配结构失衡、扩大居民消费,以及稳定和促进经济增长的关键所在。     

Functional income distribution,capacity utilization,capital accumulation and productivity growth in Turkey: A post-Kaleckian analysis

The aim of this article is to examine the relation between functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity in Turkey by identifying demand and overall regimes prevalent in the economy. For this purpose, we conducted an empirical analysis using different specifications of the post-Kaleckian model of Hein and Tarassow. This model defines and characterizes an overall regime by endogenizing productivity growth and integrating it into the models in this tradition. Empirical findings show that while the demand regime is wage-led, the overall regime turns out to be unstable in Turkey due to the destabilizing impact of productivity growth. This article contributes to the literature by being the first study that simultaneously identifies the demand and the overall regimes of an economy.     

Wage-led versus profit-led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis

This study investigates various economic factors’ impact in determining the relationship between functional income distribution and aggregate demand from both a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. We base our analysis on a demand-driven growth model for an open economy that allows for either profit-led or wage-led regimes. Our results strongly indicate that a higher level of trade openness is associated with a lower probability of being wage-led. We find evidence that lower wage inequality makes an economy more wage-led and that countries with a greater private credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio are more likely to be profit-led.     

Mergers and acquisitions in Latin America 1990–2014: Factorial distribution and contractionary impacts

The evolution of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Latin America from 1990 to 2014 is analyzed herein. A one‐sector production model without government and external sectors that links prices/costs, income distribution, demand and output is proposed, and the effects of changes in M&A on profit margins, income distribution and gross domestic product (GDP) are evaluated. The model is applied to most regional economies to determine the impact of these transactions on the profit share and level of economic activity. Our analysis does not reject the hypotheses that M&A have distributive effects favorable to profits and that they have contractionary effects on GDP in Latin American countries.     

MODELS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN FIRMS: ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURE IN THE KALECKIAN MODEL

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate free entry into the Kaleckian model. To this end, we consider a model with monopolistic competition, mark‐up pricing and a free‐entry condition. Using this model, the Kaleckian model is unstable under a wage‐led growth regime, and it is stable under a profit‐led growth regime, when the interest rate is supposed to be constant. Stability under a wage‐led growth can be achieved if the interest rate is allowed to respond positively to capacity utilization. We also find that a goods market policy, but not an income distribution policy, is then effective from an economic growth perspective.     

Conspicuous Consumption,Inequality and Debt: The Nature of Consumption‐driven Profit‐led Regimes

This paper extends the theoretical concept of wage‐led and profit‐led demand regimes by incorporating relative consumption concerns. Specifically, it integrates the Veblenian concept of conspicuous consumption into the Bhaduri–Marglin model by assuming that relative consumption concerns matter primarily within the working class. If in such a framework the profit share increases and the corresponding decrease in workers' income is distributed unevenly, efforts to ‘keep up with the Joneses’ may increase consumption and, hence, lead to a consumption‐driven profit‐led regime.     

Redistribution in a Neo‐Kaleckian Two‐country Model

We investigate the interaction between demand‐driven growth and income distribution in open economies, by combining expenditure‐switching and demand spillover effects in a neo‐Kaleckian two country model. First, we specify elasticities of wage share and real exchange rate to the money wage relative to labor productivity, in order to precisely describe the distributive pass‐through from money wages to the labor share and the real exchange rate. Second, we analyze the demand effects of an increase in the money wage for given labor productivity (a redistribution towards labor) in both Home and Foreign country, as well as globally. We derive closed form results for two identical countries. These results indicate that redistribution towards labor at Home: (i) always increases growth globally if Home is wage‐led, but can lead to lower growth at Home relative to Foreign; and (ii) will always imply lower growth at Home relative to Foreign if Home is profit‐led, but can still be growth‐enhancing at Home. Thus, to the extent that countries are concerned with their relative economic performance, a fallacy of composition can emerge. Numerical simulations suggest that these fallacies could indeed occur. As a consequence, ‘returns to coordination’ over international labor policies might be substantial.     

Regimes of Interest Rates,Income Shares,Savings and Investment: A Kaleckian Model and Empirical Estimations for some Advanced OECD Economies

The first part of the paper deals with the effects of an exogenous variation in the monetary interest rate on the real equilibrium position of the economic system in a Kaleckian effective demand model. Different regimes of accumulation are derived and it is shown that a negative relation between the interest rate and the equilibrium rates of capacity utilization, accumulation and profit usually expected in post‐Keynesian theory only exists under special conditions. In the second part the model is applied to the data of some major OECD countries, the relevant coefficients are estimated and the relevance for an explanation of the course of GDP and capital stock growth since the early 1960s is discussed.     

Technical Change and a Falling Wage Share if Profits are Maintained

In the framework of a multi-sectoral and fixed-coefficients Leontief model with capital stock matrix B, the paper addresses the issue of the impact of technical change on income distribution. Comparing two steady-state positions, it is shown that with cost-reducing, capital-using and (uniformly) labour-saving technical change the equilibrium rate of profit will fall, if it is the aggregate wage share which remains fixed, not the absolute level of the real wage. Conversely, the wage share falls if the profit rate does not change. The reactions are ambiguous if, instead of the coefficients of the matrix B, the coefficients of the input–output matrix A increase.     

A Kaldor–Hicks–Goodwin–Tobin–Kalecki model of growth and distribution

This paper presents a Kaldorian model of growth that incorporates both Kaldor's theory of income distribution and his endogenous technical progress function. Growth is driven by demand‐side forces that induce supply‐side accommodation. The model incorporates Hicksian induced innovation; Goodwin Marxist style labor conflict that affects wage bill division between workers and managers; Tobin inflation effects; and Kalecki monopoly power effects. Unlike the neo‐Kaleckian model, a Kaldorian economy operates at normal capacity utilization. Monopoly power plays a role as a barrier to entry rather than determining the functional distribution of income.     

Convergence of actual,warranted, and natural growth rates in a Kaleckian–Harrodian-classical model

This paper describes a dynamic one-sector macroeconomic model that draws on both post-Keynesian and classical/neo-Marxian themes. The model features an equilibrium in which Harrod’s actual, warranted, and natural growth rates coincide. Dynamic processes unfolding over both short and long time scales lead the economy to exhibit both business cycles and long waves. The Keynesian stability condition is assumed not to hold, so the model features short-run instability, which is bounded from above by a utilization ceiling. Labor constraints affect distribution through conflict pricing. In contrast to other Kaleckian–Harrodian models, we do not assume an exogenous source of demand. Instead, short-run instability is bounded from below by firms’ expectations that the downturn will eventually reverse.     

FACTOR SHARES,BUSINESS CYCLES AND THE DISTRIBUTIVE LOOP

This paper looks at how factor shares vary over the business cycle and how their movements fit into Kaleckian analysis. Heterodox accounts of factor‐share movements include both profit‐squeeze arguments (procyclical wage share) and underconsumption arguments (countercyclical wage share). Empirical evidence gives no decisive support for either account: factor shares may be procyclical and countercyclical at different stages of the business cycle. If factor shares vary in such a complex way, then Kaleckian models cannot have a stable distributive curve. The economy instead follows a distributive loop, with different adjustment paths during an upswing and a downswing.     

Resource-based FDI and expropriation in developing economies

Globally, foreign direct investment (FDI) assets are expropriated more in resource extraction industries compared to other sectors. Despite the higher apparent risk of expropriation in resources, countries more likely to expropriate also have a larger share of FDI in the resource sector. An incomplete markets model of FDI is developed to account for this puzzle. The type of government regime is stochastic, with low penalty regimes facing a relatively low, exogenous cost of expropriating FDI, and country risk is measured by the variation in these costs across different regimes. The key innovation of the model is that the government, before the regime type is known, is able to charge different prices to domestic and foreign investors for mineral rights. Granting cheap access increases FDI and reduces the country's share of resource rents, increasing the temptation to expropriate in a relatively low penalty regime. In very high-risk countries, subsidizing resource FDI increases the total value of output by raising investment, and the net gains from expropriating in a low penalty regime outweigh the rents foregone under a high penalty one. However, a stochastic resource output price results in relatively low-risk countries restricting FDI inflows to the resource sector instead — “windfall profits” in this sector raise incentives to expropriate when prices are high, yet minimization of the ex ante risk of expropriation is preferred owing to the relatively high penalty for expropriating. These results imply a higher average share of resource-based FDI in countries most likely to expropriate, while resources account for a high share of expropriated assets compared to the sector's global share of FDI. We show that the model is able to reconcile observed patterns of foreign investment and expropriation for a sample of 38 developing and emerging economies.     

Aggregate Demand and Endogenous Growth: a Generalized Keynes-Kaldor Model of Economic Growth

This paper presents a generalized Keynes-Kaldor growth model which incorporates both the Cambridge theory of income distribution and endogenous technical change. Within the model, the rate of aggregate demand growth affects both the level of aggregate demand and the rate of output growth. However, demand growth management can only be used to shift the economy from low to high growth equilibria, and cannot produce continuous adjustments in the equilibrium rate of growth. This reveals that management of the growth trajectory is a qualitatively different problematic from management of the level of output. Lastly, the model highlights ambiguities regarding the adjustment dynamics of demand growth.     

Hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization: A behavioral explanation

Kaleckians describe a normal rate of capacity utilization that is subject to hysteresis effects. This means that the normal rate varies directly with the actual rate of capacity utilization, ensuring that steady-state equilibrium conditions in the Kaleckian model are fully adjusted (the actual and normal rates of capacity utilization are equalized) but without this last condition implying that the rate of capacity utilization is constant in the long run. The relationship between distribution and growth unique to the Kaleckian model is, thus, preserved. The hysteresis mechanism has been criticized from various quarters, however, these criticisms focusing on its alleged lack of behavioral foundations. This paper shows that consistent with the stylized facts, variation in the normal rate of capacity utilization in response to variation in the actual capacity utilization rate can be derived from the links between both variables and the volatility of the macroeconomic environment—volatility, in the presence of fundamental uncertainty, being an important reason why firms deliberately under-utilize capacity (even in the long run) in the first place. The result is an empirically grounded behavioral foundation for hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization.     

International Competition and Distributive Class Conflict in an Open Economy Kaleckian Model

This paper constructs an open economy Kaleckian model in which international competition affects the bargaining process between firms and workers, and investigates the effects of such bargaining on the macroeconomy. We show that the effects of a change in the bargaining power on aggregate demand depends not only on the demand regimes but also on which agents bears more of the burden arising from the international price competition. Moreover, if the real exchange rate has a small impact on the trade balance, the economy is stable, whereas if it has a larger impact on the trade balance, the economy is unstable.     

Consumer and Corporate Debt: A Neo‐Kaleckian Synthesis

We present a neo‐Kaleckian growth model with both consumer and corporate debt. The model's macrodynamic and stability characteristics differ from singleߚdebt models, yet some steadyߚstate results persist. For example, a surge in ‘animal spirits’ is good for steadyߚstate growth, and consumer borrowing can help to sustain aggregate demand. Stable steady states are characterized by a kind of ‘euthanasia of the rentier’. Consumer credit conditions influence effective demand, the profit rate and economic growth. Looser consumer credit conditions have a steadyߚstate growth effect and can enhance system stability. In this restricted sense, looser consumer credit conditions are good for macroeconomic stability.     

A CGE model of 'Dutch disease' economics in Taiwan

A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Dutch disease economics in Taiwan's economy is established in order to examine the impacts of the imbalanced growth in output, endogenous learning effects from imports and exports and the import tariff reduction. Twenty-nine industry sectors and five quintiles of households are taken to measure the changes in industry structure and functional distribution of income. An imbalanced growth, either from output or exports, contributes to the reduction in the share of manufacturing industry, but the deterioration in the functional distribution of income only happens to an imbalanced growth in intersectoral output. A widespread trade liberalization policy helps to mitigate the Dutch disease phenomenon in the sense that de-industrialization and deterioration of the distribution of income by an imbalanced growth in manufacturing industry are not so severe.     

GROWTH,UNEMPLOYMENT AND ENDOGENOUS TECHNICAL PROGRESS: A HICKSIAN RESOLUTION OF HARROD'S KNIFE‐EDGE

This paper presents a neo‐Kaleckian growth model with unemployment, endogenous technical progress, and a steady‐state requirement of balanced labor demand and supply growth. There are two key innovations: first, a Marx–Hicks unemployment rate–profit rate channel affecting labor‐saving technical progress; second, a Keynesian unemployment rate channel affecting saving and investment. Changes in the unemployment rate change the profit rate, rebalancing effective labor supply and employment growth. This provides a Hicksian resolution of Harrod's knife‐edge. The Keynesian unemployment rate channel strengthens the growth benefits of a lower unemployment rate, potentially obviating any growth–unemployment trade‐off.     

Autonomous Demand and the Harrodian Criticisms of the Kaleckian Model

Lavoie ( 2016 ) introduces autonomous demand in a defense of the (post‐) Kaleckian analysis against classical and Harrodian criticisms. This note corrects some errors in Lavoie's analysis, questions the stabilizing potential of autonomous demand, and points out some differences between the two variants of Lavoie's ‘neo‐Kaleckian’ model.