土地制度变革与经济结构转型——对中国40年发展经验的一个经济解释

研究目的:学术界对中国改革开放40年创造的"经济奇迹"有各种解释,但存在很大争议。本文从土地制度角度,分析了制度安排与变迁对经济结构历史转型的作用。研究方法:制度经济学、发展经济学、政治经济学方法。研究结果:在政府主导发展权下,独特的土地制度安排及其变革创造了地方政府以地谋发展模式,土地制度租金创造的资本成为推动结构变革的重要力量。研究结论:中国的结构转变阶段与该阶段的土地制度改革高度相关,大致分为4个阶段:1981—1994年,为土地权利开放开启改革以后的工业化阶段;1995—2002年,为以地谋发展的工业化和城市化阶段;2003—2008年,为以地生财的城市化阶段;2008—2016年,为以地融资的城市化阶段。     

国土空间开发强优势区的理论认知与政策机制设计 ——基于优势区原理的思考

研究目的：从国土空间开发优势区原理出发,探究土地资源空间配置效率改进路径,提出空间治理体系现代化需求下国土空间开发强优势区治理模式的政策机制,为中国国土空间用途管制提供理论依据。研究方法：理论演绎与分析。研究结果：国土空间开发强优势区是对传统经济活动空间分布思想的深化,是集传统经济优势和政策优势为一体的具备区域空间比较（主导）优势的一种空间（经济）单元,表现一种约束和引导土地资源空间格局的专门化配置方案;在传统经济优势空间格局配置的基础上配以差别化政策体系,具有土地资源主体功能分工协作效率的比较优势,具备土地资源空间配置效率改进的时代意义。研究结论：在综合推进区域协调发展、追求高质量发展等国家发展战略理念下,加快国土空间治理体系现代化以形成地域空间经济建设与生态保护的强优势区治理模式,应构建以土地市场机制、政策（政府）调控机制、社群监督机制协同并进的国土空间治理政策（机制）体系。     

土地整治对农户“福祉—生态”耦合关系的影响 ——基于整治模式与地貌类型的异质分析

研究目的：分析土地整治对农户“福祉水平—生态依赖”耦合的关系影响,并进一步揭示其影响的整治模式和地貌类型差异。研究方法：生态系统服务依赖度指数体系和半参数双重差分模型。研究结果：（1）地方政府和新型经营主体主导模式均对农户实现“高福祉—低依赖”具有显著的正向影响;（2）江汉平原新型经营主体主导模式促使“高福祉—低依赖”的实现概率高出地方政府主导模式17.5%,武陵山区这一概率则高出21.7%;（3）与武陵山区同一土地整治模式相比,江汉平原地方政府主导模式可促使“低福祉—低依赖”的实现概率降低10.5%,新型经营主体主导模式可促使“低福祉—高依赖”的实现概率降低25.3%。研究结论：土地整治对农户“福祉水平—生态依赖”耦合关系的影响受到整治模式和地貌类型的制约。     

近十年土地科学领域研究方向、热点与展望 ——基于国家社会科学基金选题指南和立项项目的分析

研究目的：基于近十年国家社会科学基金选题指南和立项项目，剖析土地科学领域研究方向、立项格局、研究热点和发展趋势。研究方法：综合分析法，文献研究法。研究结果：（1）近十年土地科学领域选题有463项，占国家社会科学基金选题总量的2.16%，其研究方向可划分为法律法规、制度政策、经济市场、产权权益、调查评价、空间规划和修复保护7个方向。（2）近十年土地科学领域立项项目有1 350项，占国家社会科学基金立项总数的2.66%，选题平均立项数目（2.92）高于国家社会科学基金平均水平（2.38）；立项学科侧重应用经济（34.75%）、管理学（17.92%）、法学（13.44%）和理论经济（11.87%）；研究方向侧重制度政策（22.59%）和经济市场类（22.67%），研究热点聚焦在土地法制、三权分置、土地流转、自然资源、国土空间等。（3）展望未来，国家社会科学基金中土地科学领域将持续秉持响应国家战略需求、解决现实难题的要求，更加关注学科交叉融合、构建学科自主知识体系、提升国家治理体系和治理能力现代化水平和立足国际前沿参与全球治理等相关研究。研究结论：近十年来，国家社会科学基金中土地科学研究领域的...     

乡村振兴背景下土地整治模式与生态导向转型 ——以浙江省为例

研究目的：阐释土地整治生态转型内涵,梳理土地整治实践较为超前的浙江省典型整治模式及生态转型困境,通过构建土地整治生态转型理论框架并提出土地整治生态转型的优化路径,助推土地整治生态转型。研究方法：文献资料法、归纳演绎法、案例分析法。研究结果：（1）土地整治生态转型以“两山”理念为指导,通过统筹“山水林田湖草”全要素综合治理,挖掘各要素蕴含的生态服务价值,增强乡村地域生态和文化功能,将土地整治与乡村振兴目标的融合,实现以“短、平、快”为主要特征的传统土地整治向以生态环境改善和受损生态系统修复为导向的土地整治进行转型。（2）根据运作方式、整治对象和重点的不同,浙江省土地整治模式可分为4类：“土地整治+美丽乡村建设”模式、“土地整治+现代农业引领”模式、“土地整治+传统古村保护”模式和“土地整治+乡村旅游发展”模式。（3）浙江省土地整治生态转型的实践困境包括：土地整治工程措施改变生态系统自然恢复条件、土地整治重经济效益轻生态环境效益、“土地整治+”模式的复杂性影响整治效果。研究结论：土地整治应充分发挥作为管控土地利用转型重要手段的作用,通过重塑生态价值导向明确土地整治转型方向、分区开展生态工程因地制宜优化生态功能、健全绿色基础设施推进乡村生态环境改善、拓宽两山转化通道助力生态产品价值实现等优化土地整治生态转型路径,可有效改善区域生态环境和提升生态系统服务功能,助力中国乡村振兴。     

重点任务驱动、财政增收激励与集体经营性建设用地入市改革

研究目的：从地方政府行为视角，探究农村集体经营性建设用地入市改革中地方差异的影响因素和作用机制，为构建城乡统一建设用地市场提供政策启示。研究方法：案例比较分析。研究结果：受重点任务驱动，首批试点地方分配更多注意力在“农地入市”，改革进展明显优于非首批试点；首批试点地方中，中西部城市的入市改革表现总体上并不逊色于东部经济发达城市，前者依赖政府主导的“以地谋发展”模式的效果明显不如后者。地方财政增收对政府保持供地垄断地位的依赖程度较低的地方开展和推进入市改革的动力相对较强，而高层级政府的关注会强化这一动力。研究结论：地方政府的代理人属性和财政增收的自利属性共同影响其政策创新与执行。入市改革进展是地方政府代理人属性和财政增收激励综合作用的结果，地方政府的回应差异源于该项改革对地方财政收益格局的影响差异以及高层级政府的重视程度差异。建议优化中央与地方间的事权和财权划分，利用政治权威的显著影响促使地方突破对传统的“以地谋发展”模式的路径依赖，抓紧研究集体土地流转过程中相关税费的收取方案，保障政府在土地增值过程中合理的收益分享权。     

土地财政与城市经济发展问题

研究目的：探讨过去10年城市高度依赖土地财政的发展模式出现的一系列问题,分析问题背后的原因,为完善土地财政政策和城市经济可持续发展提供依据。研究方法：通过数据挖掘的研究方法,讨论土地财政与城市发展问题的联系。研究结果：（1）现有土地出让制度使得房地产市场形成寡头垄断微观结构,加大价格调控难度;地方政府对土地财政依赖增加导致地方产业结构“房地产业化”趋势,同时通过拉高工资成本,推高城市化成本。（2）不同地区的土地财政收入存在较大差异,体现的是各地方政府通过土地融资水平的差异,融资水平差异将导致经济增长差异,进一步拉开区域发展距离。研究结论：土地财政政策存在的问题必须受到足够重视。     

2018年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2019年展望

研究目的：总结2018年国内外土地科学研究的重点进展，展望2019年中国土地科学的发展趋势以及《中国土地科学》重点关注方向。研究方法：文献调研法。研究结果：（1）土地经济领域重点关注城乡土地价格与农地流转影响因素、土地市场化改革与政府行为、土地产权制度变迁与征地冲突等；（2）土地管理领域研究热点主要围绕自然资源管理体制改革、农村土地制度改革与土地法律完善、土地权籍与耕地保护管理等实践问题；（3）土地资源、利用与规划领域研究以探索土地资源资产负债表编制、重视土地生态状况评估、深化土地利用视角下的碳排放研究、创新土地利用模式、探讨国土空间规划体系构建及村级规划为热点；（4）土地工程与技术领域在农地综合整治、复垦技术革新、土地污染修复方法等方面研究逐渐深入，土地信息采集、处理技术不断完善。研究结论：2019年，《中国土地科学》将重点关注国家战略实施下的土地制度改革与土地利用转型、自然资源统一管理下的空间治理体系构建、生态文明建设背景下的土地资源系统科学、信息通讯技术驱动下的土地资源智能管控等研究问题及相关选题方向。     

标准地土地供应模式对城市绿色全要素生产率的影响效果及作用机制研究——基于PSM-DID的经验证据

研究目的：探究标准地土地供应模式对城市绿色全要素生产率的影响效果及作用机制，为推动经济高质量发展建言献策。研究方法：PSM-DID，中介效应模型。研究结果：（1）标准地土地供应模式的实施显著促进了城市绿色全要素生产率的提升。（2）从机制分析来看，工业结构优化和创新水平提升是标准地土地供应模式助力城市绿色全要素生产率提升的重要作用路径。相较于创新水平提升，工业结构优化在标准地土地出让模式影响城市绿色全要素生产率的过程中发挥着更加重要的中介作用。研究结论：地方政府应结合自身发展目标和现状，通过持续推行标准地土地供应模式，引导工业结构优化转型、鼓励内部技术创新和外部先进技术引进等措施促进城市绿色全要素生产率提升，助力经济高质量发展。     

耕地“进出平衡”政策执行的偏移风险、形成路径与规避体系研究

研究目的：以“内涵阐释—风险辨识—路径分析—规避体系”为逻辑主线,客观认识耕地“进出平衡”政策执行的偏移风险类型、风险来源与形成路径,探究耕地“进出平衡”政策执行偏移风险新命题,以期为提高新时期耕地用途管制政策的稳定性与连续性提供理论参考。研究方法：理论分析法和归纳演绎法。研究结果：（1）耕地“进出平衡”政策执行的偏移风险主要包括组织矛盾、保障滞后、利益冲突和监管缺失;（2）规划冲突与权责模糊、资金技术的双重约束、多元主体利益冲突以及对非耕行为的负激励程度不足是造成政策执行偏移的主要风险源;（3）“制度环境—利益互异—执行偏移”的逻辑主线,可解释耕地“进出平衡”政策偏移风险的形成路径;（4）规避耕地“进出平衡”政策执行偏移风险,需借助规划管理、资金技术、利益分配和科技预警等手段。研究结论：耕地“进出平衡”政策的执行,应重视政策演化不同阶段不同偏移风险的差异性,构建相应的风险规避体系。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.