Trade patterns,unemployment and growth

This paper analyses the implications of a minimum wage in an open economy two-sector model where the effect of growth on trade and unemployment is explicitly determined. The first-best policy is a wage subsidy to all employment while the second-best policy is a production tax cum subsidy. In the absence of policy intervention it is shown that growth in the short run results in decreasing unemployment for the home country if it is specialized in consumption goods or incompletely specialized provided that the minimum wage is binding. If the economy is specialized in investment goods, then unemployment may increase initially but as growth continues the minimum wage no longer remains binding and full employment is restored. In the long run by examining the dynamic interaction between trade and growth it is possible for the economy to be incompletely specialized with unemployment. If the economy specializes in consumption goods, it is possible for the economy to attain full employment.     

Equilibrium Unemployment and Endogenous Public Sector Employment

This paper develops a model of the equilibrium rate of unemployment with an endogenous share of public sector employment. We show how various macroeconomic shocks drive up the equilibrium rate of unemployment, accompanied by predictable variations in the public sector share of employment. In particular, under the empirically plausible assumptions that the public sector is relatively labor-intensive and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than unity, public sector employment is shown to be countercyclical. When the equilibrium unemployment rate rises over a prolonged time period, the public sector share of employment also rises.     

Unemployment,environmental policy,and international migration

In this paper, we investigate the effects of an increase in emission tax, a decrease in fixed manufacturing wage rate, and an increased inflow of foreign workers on competitive wages, the environmental stock, the economic welfare of the representative consumer, and employment in the presence of a pollution abatement equipment sector and unemployment. Our main findings are that an increase in emission tax and a decrease in the urban minimum wage rate decrease unemployment, and international immigration may increase the competitive wage rate, employment rate, stock of environmental capital, and economic welfare of the representative worker.     

THE PROFIT–INVESTMENT–UNEMPLOYMENT NEXUS AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN A STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL

This paper studies under which conditions the share of profit in value‐added, financial constraints on investment and capital shortage may foster unemployment and may limit the growth of capital and/or the growth of aggregate demand, in a stock‐flow consistent model. The efficiency of demand‐side versus supply‐side economic policies (decrease of the real interest rate and/or of the real wage, increase of the leverage ceiling constraint) depends on capital shortage and credit rationing, which are not necessarily simultaneous due to the effects of investment on aggregate demand and supply.     

Efficiency wages,unemployment and international factor movements

"This paper examines the implications of unemployment resulting from efficiency wages for international factor movements in a standard Heckscher-Ohlin model where the relative size of the endowments of skilled and unskilled workers and the efficiency wage induced unemployment level in the unskilled labour market are simultaneously determined given the population, supply of capital and its distribution in the economy.... It is shown that the optimum labour inflow in the market with domestic distortion and the optimum capital inflow are always positive because they reduce the severity of distortion by raising employment and income for the residents. The income and employment of foreigners also increase. Under this situation the optimum labour or capital outflow on the other hand is always zero. These conclusions directly contradict the result obtained for international factor movements in the presence of exogenously determined unemployment."     

Manufacturing outsourcing,onshoring, and global equilibrium

Manufacturing is now a national strategy for many countries to combat slow economic growth, and positively viewed with the current trend of onshoring foreign manufacturing operations. We develop a cross-country regression model that predicts manufacturing employment as a function of population growth, foreign direct investment, and purchasing power parity. Results through the year 2100 suggest that manufacturing is trending toward a global equilibrium with higher levels of manufacturing outputs but much lower levels of manufacturing employment. The reason is that countries tend to evolve from having little manufacturing to commodity manufacturing at large scale and low wages. As infrastructure and human capital develop, there is the tendency to pursue advanced manufacturing in support of higher valued goods. The manufacture of commodity products is then outsourced to those countries with lower costs justified by their less-developed infrastructure and human capital, and so the virtuous cycle continues. While this model suggests that current efforts in revitalization of domestic manufacturing would lead to an increase in wealth in the United States, the bad news is that these gains are unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. However, the good news is that manufacturing acts as a rising tide that raises all nations and our global quality of life.     

The economics of the super‐multiplier: A comprehensive treatment with labor markets

This paper links the super‐multiplier to Keynesian macroeconomics, showing it to be the most Keynesian of growth perspectives. Next, the paper shows that the super‐multiplier is a micro‐economically coherent theory of investment and capital accumulation. Firms’ decisions regarding capital accumulation coordinate demand and supply growth in goods markets. The paper then explores the implications of incorporating the super‐multiplier in the neo‐Kaleckian and Cambridge growth models. Lastly, it shows how labor markets and unemployment can be added into super‐multiplier models to provide a comprehensive growth model that addresses Solow's (1956, Journal of Economics, 70, 65–94) labor market knife‐edge problem. Incorporating labor markets does not change the fundamental super‐multiplier result that growth is determined by the growth of autonomous demand.     

Efficiency wages,unemployment and international factor movements

This paper examines the implications of unemployment resulting from efficiency wages for international factor movements in a standard Heckscher-Ohlin model where the relative size of the endowments of skilled and unskilled workers and the efficiency wage induced unemployment level in the unskilled labour market are simultaneously determined given the population, supply of capital and its distribution in the economy. Capital in the economy is used only to train individuals for the skilled labour market, where workers are fully employed. It is shown that the optimum labour inflow in the market with domestic distortion and the optimum capital inflow are always positive because they reduce the severity of distortion by raising employment and income for the residents. The income and employment of foreigners also increase. Under this situation the optimum labour or capital outflow on the other hand is always zero. These conclusions directly contradict the result obtained for international factor movements in the presence of exogenously determined unemployment.     

经济均衡增长的必要条件与我国经济发展战略

经济均衡增长要求两大部类之间必须保持合理的比例关系、消费需求能够稳定增长。社会再生产过程中,两大部类之间的比例关系及投资率、储蓄率是由资本产出率、资本淘汰率、经济增长率三个因素所决定的,在技术、资源不制约经济发展的条件下,消费增长速度越快,投资率、储蓄率会越高,经济发展速度也越快。20世纪90年代中后期,中国经济增长速度放慢的最主要原因是体制改革对人们消费心理的影响,因此应从发展速度、发展方向、调控手段等方面规划我国经济未来发展的道路。     

Costly investment and complementarities in an international trade model with directed technological change

We investigate the impacts on the skill premium and on economic growth in an innovator‐imitator general equilibrium growth model assuming: (a) directed technological change; (b) international trade of intermediate goods; (c) internal costly investment in both physical capital and R&D; and (d) complementarities between intermediate goods in aggregate production. With trade of intermediate goods, the complementarities degree and investment costs influence the economic growth of both countries, but do not affect the countries' skill premia, which are directed by technological knowledge. Additionally, in agreement with related empirical literature, openness to trade of intermediate goods leads to a higher equilibrium skill premium in both countries, whereas its impact on the common growth rate can vary in sign.     

GROWTH,STAGNATION AND STATUS PREFERENCE

We show that an economy grows or stagnates depending on which of three objects people most esteem as tokens of status. If the main object of status preference is consumption, then a steady state with full employment is reached. If it is physical capital (which is a producible asset), then permanent growth with full employment occurs. However, if it is money (which is not a producible asset), stagnation with persistent unemployment arises.     

中国经济持续增长的根源探究

本文运用Barro回归模型对改革开放以来中国经济持续增长三十年进行实证分析发现,在中国经济持续增长中,工业化、城镇化、市场化和消费升级等反映经济制度和经济结构演变的部分持续效应较强,在持续增长前期占总贡献的40％,到后期占80％;物质资本、人力资本、劳动力和科技等投入要素部分持续效应较弱,前期占总贡献的60％,后期只占20％;物质资本、人力资本、劳动力持续作用呈现倒U型曲线。研究同时发现,后发优势的作用是显著的,但呈现L型曲线。     

Productivity and externalities: models of export-led growth

In developing countries, successful export-led growth (ELG) industrialization has been associated with rapid structural change and productivity growth. There are major difficulties in explaining this performance using a standard neoclassical growth model. To develop a more satisfactory framework, we start from empirical and theoretical work with models incorporating externalities. We develop a simple analytical model with an export externality that captures the large increase in both total factor productivity and trade share associated with ELG. A second model is developed to decompose growth into various components: (i) factor accumulation, (ii) a factor reallocation effect from moving factors from low to high productivity sectors, (iii) an export externality effect arising from exporting light and heavy manufactures and (iv) an import externality effect arising from importing capital goods (heavy manufactures). The second model is implemented with data for an archetype semi-industrial country. In addition to accounting for the higher total factor productivity growth observed in countries pursuing ELG strategies, the model captures the patterns of structural change experienced by such countries better than simpler neoclassical models without disequilibrium features or externalities.     

Effects of foreign investment in the presence of unemployment

In this paper we present a simple model of unemployment in the presence of foreign investment in the traded sector. More foreign investment increases employment in the nontraded sector but may or may not increase employment in the traded sector. The effect on total employment is also ambiguous. In a two-country framework with foreign investment itself a variable, we show that foreign investment should most likely be subsidized rather than taxed. Moreover, the employment maximizing tax on foreign investment is shown to be less than the optimum tax.     

MONEY AND GROWTH IN A RICARDO-VON NEUMANN-LEWIS WORLD

It is well known (Tobin (1965)) that in a monetary economy with full employment the monetary growth rate uniquely determines the steady-state capital intensity of the economy. This paper demonstrates that portfolio balance in a Ricardo-Von Neumann-Lewis world implies that the steady-state growth rate of the economy (the rate of capital accumulation) is uniquely determined by the rate of monetary growth. An increase in the monetary growth rate increases the steady-state inflation rate which, through its effect on savings, increases the equilibrium growth of the economy.     

The skill premium and economic growth with costly investment,complementarities and international technological-knowledge diffusion

We analyse the skill premium and the growth rate in an innovator-imitator general equilibrium growth model assuming (i) internal costly investment in both physical capital and R&D, (ii) complementarities between intermediate goods in production and (iii) technological-knowledge diffusion. We find that in the imitator country these three elements influence the economic growth rate and the skill premium. In the innovator country, while the growth rate is affected by costly investment and complementarities, the skill premium is not affected by any of our assumptions. It depends solely on the productive advantage of high-skilled over low-skilled labour, which suggests that the sustained increase in the skill premium observed in several developed countries over the last three decades may have been due to increases in such productive advantage.     

An Extension of the Structural Change Model to International Economic Relations

In this paper Pasinetti's model of structural economic dynamics (1981) is extended to consider international economic relations. Conditions for full employment, full expenditure of income and equilibrium of the trade balance are established for an open economy that requires capital goods to produce final commodities. Analytical results concerning the benefits from free trade and international learning are formally studied. In addition, static and dynamic aspects of the ‘principle of comparative cost advantage’ are analysed considering the determinants of the specialization level.     

Incomplete market participation, endogenous endowment risks and welfare

This paper investigates the equilibrium growth rate of capital stock and social welfare when risk-sharing externalities are incorporated into the infinite-horizon model where endowment risks are endogenized by the degree of incomplete market participation. There exist Nash equilibria depending on the degree of market participation. Under equilibrium with incomplete market participation, the endowment risks cannot be fully diversified as they induce precautionary savings and the over-accumulation of capital stocks while spillover effects on production technologies lead to the under-accumulation of capital stocks. This may have desirable effects on economic growth and improve social welfare.     

A general equilibrium analysis of foreign investment and intersectoral linkage

In this paper, we demonstrate that a foreign capital induced growth in a protected sector, which provides an industrial input for agricultural products, may increase welfare even after the entire foreign capital income is repatriated. Such a policy may lead to an increase in the volume of trade along with an increase in the size of the protected sector, quite contrary to the usual perception. The analysed structure also incorporates migration and unemployment.     

CAN THE POOR COUNTRIES CATCH UP? MIXED RESULTS FROM EXTENDED SOURCES OF GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE EARLY 21st CENTURY

Illustrative projections of per capita income gaps between two groups of developing economies and the rich economies for the period 1998–2030 are made on the basis of an extended sources of growth equation which accounts for interactions between trends in capital and labor productivity. The equation takes into consideration Kaldor–Verdoorn effects, possible impacts on labor productivity of trade liberalization and/or astute industrial policy, human and physical capital accumulation, employment and population growth, shifting shares of labor in income and traded goods in output, shifts in capital productivity, productivity growth retardation due to convergence and specific regional effects. Under optimistic assumptions about all these factors and in the historically unprecedented absence of adverse macroeconomic shocks over three decades, relative and absolute convergence of both regions to the rich countries may be possible.