浙江省旅游景区的转型升级研究

旅游景区是区域旅游产业发展的核心载体,是将旅游业培育成＂国民经济的战略性支柱产业和人民群众更加满意的现代服务业＂的主阵地。以浙江省为例,通过对浙江省旅游景区调查数据的剖析以明确其存在的问题与不足,指出旅游景区转型升级的必要性、内涵任务及面临难题,并分别从政府、企业等两个层面提出相应的对策与措施,为国内旅游景区的转型升级与可持续发展提供参考。     

科学发展观与法治建设

法治可以有效规范和保证把发展始终作为"第一要义"、把"以人为本"作为发展的核心、把全面协调可持续作为发展的基本要求、把统筹兼顾作为发展的根本方法。科学发展观是建设社会主义法治国家的行动指南。法治建设必须与科学发展观相适应,保证科学发展观的深入贯彻落实。加强社会主义法治,要坚持以科学发展观为指导,充分发挥党总揽全局、协调各方的领导核心作用,全面落实依法治国基本方略。     

Art is long,innovation is short: Lessons from the Renaissance and the digital age

Creative processes are partly stable over the ages, and partly influenced by their techno-historical contexts. In this paper we examine the effects of technology on creative effort in two historical periods separated by five hundred years: the early Italian Renaissance and the contemporary Internet age with the production of art for digital products such as video games and animation. We examine how human creative processes, or more broadly, creative work, can be conceptualized as a general nature within a complex framework of evolving practices, technologies, and social norms. Commonalities emerge by comparing these two ages. In particular, creative work can be thought of as a combinative activity, operating on motifs in culture, and bounded by their social acceptance. Second, creative work involves techniques that expand the frontier of creative output. Third, creative work involves much iteration, facilitated by the media, techniques and technologies. We examine the constants in human combinative creativity by comparing these ages, as well as how this combinative creativity and iterative activity is mediated differently by the technologies of the time.     

ACCOUNTING FOR NONMARKET HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION WITHIN A NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK

The satellite accounts illustrated in this paper reflect the household's role as a producer and an investor in durables as well as a consumer by modifying the NIPA's to (1) incorporate the value of nonmarket (unpaid) household work into GDP; and (2) treat expenditures on consumer durables as investment and measure the value of the services those durables provide. Additionally, an Input–Output (I–O) model highlights the household's functions as a producer and investor in much greater detail for the year 1992 by incorporating a household industry for each time-use activity and by showing the inputs to and outputs from each household industry's production.     

Information, Knowledge and Belief

The paper models information as possibilities consistent with signals received from the environment. Knowledge is obtained by reasoning about the signals received as well as those that might have been received but were not. The term 'knowledge' is used to refer to those beliefs that are obtained by reasoning about the available information, and nothing else . That is, one ought to be able to fully justify what one knows by means of the information that is available. The term 'belief' is used to refer to those beliefs that are based on information but not necessarily only on information. The author investigates the relationship between information, knowledge and belief, as well as the issue of updating knowledge and belief in response to changes in information.     

Alternative Ways to Teach and Learn Economics: Writing,Quantitative Reasoning,and Oral Communication

The authors describe an interesting attempt by one university to require of students demonstrated competencies in the areas suggested by the title—writing as freshmen, quantitative reasoning as sophomores and juniors, and oral communication as juniors or seniors. Quantitative measures of the effectiveness of the program are not provided.     

International Economic Sanctions Against a Dictator

Wintrobe's (1990, 1998) dictatorship model is adapted to examine the impacts of economic sanctions on an autocrat. It is shown that the dictator's choice of the level of power, and the quantities of loyalty and repression used as inputs in the production of power, are affected by the type and magnitude of sanctions and by the impact of sanctions on the political effectiveness of opposition groups. Sanctions have direct and indirect effects on the prices of loyalty and repression as well as potentially generating rents that might be captured either by the dictator or by the opposition.     

Low-Wage Labor Markets and the Power of Suggestion

The paper argues that a non-binding minimum wage may serve as a focal point which facilities tacit collusion by low-wage employers, effectively pulling down wages of the lowest-paid workers. This can explain the puzzle as to why the minimum wage does not reduce employment, as predicted by the traditional economic theory. A simple game-theoretic argument explains when collusion emerges. The hypothesis is tested using the 1990–2002 CPS data on service occupation workers. The results suggest that during this period, on average 19.3%, and as much as 31% of service occupation workers, who earned minimum wage or less, could had been affected by collusive wage-setting.     

Population dividend and economic growth in China, 1978–2018

ABSTRACT

China witnessed important demographic transitions during the past 40 years. The significant decline in fertility rate, as a result of both policy change and economic factors, generated the so-called population dividends – rising proportion of working age population – during the past several decades. This paper demonstrates important channels through which broadly defined population dividends contribute to economic growth in China, by magnifying roles of capital, by improving labor quality, alongside increases in labor supply, and by strengthening labor mobility. As population aging now takes over from population dividends as the main demographic trend, it is possible for China to continue its strong growth by focusing on both the traditional growth factors, such as further reducing the proportion of agricultural workers, and new growth factors, such as further improving productivity by strengthening human capital and weakening institutional obstacles.     

Exports,policy choices,and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock

In a study of 43 developing countries in the 1973–78 period of external shocks, the author has shown that intercountry differences in the rate of economic growth are affected by differences in investment rates and by the rate of growth of the labor force, by the initial trade policy stance and by the adjustment policies applied, as well as by the level of economic development and the product composition of exports. The results show that the policies adopted have importantly influenced the rate of economic growth in developing countries. In particular, an outward-oriented policy stance at the beginning of the period and reliance on export promotion in response to these shocks, appear to have favorably affected growth performance. The results further indicate the possibilities for low-income countries to accelerate their economic growth through the application of modern technology in an appropriate policy framework as well as the advantages of relying on manufactured exports.     

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian consumer inflation (Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo; IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data from IPCA over 12 months ahead. We used IPCA in a monthly basis, over the period between January 1996 and March 2012. Out-of-sample analysis will be made through the period of January 2008 to March 2012. The disaggregated models were estimated by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and will have different levels of disaggregation from IPCA as groups and items, as well as disaggregation with more economic sense used by Brazilian Central Bank as: (1) services, monitored prices, food and industrials and (2) durables, non-durables, semi-durables, services and monitored prices. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy among models will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set developed by Peter Hansen, Asger Lunde and James Nason. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated rather than aggregate data.     

Employee relations and innovation: an empirical analysis using patent data

This paper investigates the relationship between employee relations (ER) as tracked in the environment, social, and governance (ESG) database provided by MSCI Inc., and innovation as measured by patents and patent citations. Some ER policies, such as broadly based profit-sharing plans, stock option plans, and stock ownership, create a direct link between a firm’s performance and employee compensation and might therefore be expected to encourage successful innovation. In addition, some other aspects of ER, including good pension plans, good union relations, and a variety of specific benefits (such as flex time) might improve innovation performance through their effect on employee morale or institutional loyalty, or simply by creating incentives to stay with the firm. We find that both of these categories of ER – financial incentives and non-pecuniary motivations – have a positive effect on innovation as measured by patenting and patent citations.     

我国居民旅游消费对经济增长的影响分析

本文利用我国1994—2006年的时间序列数据,运用计量经济学中的协整理论对城镇、农村居民旅游消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。得出以下主要结论:城镇居民旅游消费和GDP、第三产业增加值之间具有协整关系;城镇居民旅游消费每增加1%,GDP增加0.79%,第三产业增加值增加0.85%;城镇居民旅游消费对第三产业的推动作用大于其对经济增长的推动作用;而农村居民旅游消费和GDP、第三产业增加值之间不具有协整关系,农村居民旅游消费对经济增长和第三产业的发展没有明显的推动作用。以上现象与我国农村居民旅游消费的特征是分不开的。最后,提出了提高我国居民旅游消费水平的对策。     

产业关联与产业创新系统分析——以江西主导产业为例

以产业创新系统为研究对象,运用Warshall算法对产业间的二元关系直接进行量化,通过关系矩阵确定产业创新系统中的"通径产业"。以江西省为例进行实证分析,通过计算创新感应度系数和影响力系数来验证其六大主导产业中的"创新源产业"和"效益体现产业"。研究结果显示:江西省确定的六大主导产业基本符合该省投入-产出所显现出的经济贡献率的梯次要求,江西省可将汽车航空及精密制造业作为"创新源产业",将特色冶金和金属制品业、电子通信设备制造业和精细化工及新型建材业作为"通径产业"。     

The EU attitude to unilateral euroization: Misunderstandings,real concerns and sub‐optimal admission criteria

European Union objections to unilateral euroization by applicant countries are categorized as either a misunderstanding of what euroization entails or as justified concern, which should be alleviated by candidates wishing to euroize. Some ways in which candidates can alleviate concerns are discussed, as well as possible adjustments to the Maastricht criteria which might better protect both sides' interests. The paper concludes that the EU would benefit if it accepted unilateral euroization by applicants. JEL classification: E42, F33, F42, P24.     

Exploring local projects for sustainable energy in system transition: local perceptions of success

In the sustainability transitions literature, ‘success’ is conceived as the transition from an unsustainable system to a sustainable one. However, this view hides a more profound complexity in individual projects which can contribute to system transition. This paper focuses instead on local projects as key sites for change. In two case studies of UK sustainable energy projects, success is shown to be characterised by different causative beliefs held by different people about the problems being addressed, which predetermines solutions to those problems; and hence the nature of success. By acknowledging this multiplicity of success, as perceived by ordinary residents and project organisers as well as transition scholars, ‘narratives of success’ can be recognised, enabling future projects to build on success, and continue along the path to transition. This reconceptualisation provides transition scholars with new ways of understanding and effecting transitions; by focusing on the project level, which is useful in contexts with varying commitment to sustainability.     

Effort,efficiency, and incentives in economic organizations

This paper establishes the possibility of achieving both efficiency and incentive compatibility within a hierarchical organization, even when managers are effortaverse, as long as efficiency is defined as incorporating managers' effort disutilities as opportunity costs of production. It is further argued that this approach yields the same (i.e., Pareto) type of efficiency as achieved by the perfectly competitive price system when managerial disutility of effort is allowed. Thus, the negative results published by Miller and Murrell hold because of the non-Paretian objective functions assumed for central planners.     

“低保”制度研究文献回顾

“低保”制度的有效性取决于这一制度实施过程所涉及的关键环节和关键要素,以及这些环节与要素之间的关系能否得到科学的认识和正确的把握。也就是说,“低保”制度是否获得预期的效果以及其功用的大小,取决于“低保”制度运行中究竟存在着哪些问题,以及这些问题在一定的经济、政治、文化、社会条件下能否得到有效解决。“低保”制度从建立到完善需要一个漫长的探索过程,通过对相关文献的总结,并从中寻找中国“低保”制度研究的发展、演进轨迹,进而形成一个比较清晰的研究框架。     

Corporate environmental disclosure, financial markets and the media: An international perspective

In this study, we analyze the information dynamics between corporate environmental disclosure, financial markets (as proxied by financial analysts' earnings forecasts) and public pressures (as proxied by a firm's media exposure). We adopt a comprehensive view of disclosure that encompasses environmental information that is both print-based as well as web-based. The sample comprises firms from both continental Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, and Netherlands) as well as North America (Canada and the United States). Relying on a system of equations that controls for endogeneity between environmental disclosure determination and financial analysts' work, we show that enhanced environmental disclosure translates into more precise earnings forecasts by analysts. Such effect is reduced for firms with extensive analyst following and in environmentally sensitive industries. However, these relationships are shown to be starker in Europe than in North America, i.e., environmental disclosure has a greater impact on analysts' forecasts but is also more greatly attenuated by analyst following and membership in an environmentally sensitive industry. Most observed relationships hold for either print- or web-based disclosure, except for North America in which web-based disclosure seems to have no impact on analysts' forecasting work.     

Biofuels as Sustainable Technologies: Perspectives for Less Developed Countries

The future outlook of biofuels is beset by uncertainty. Key factors for the adoption of biofuels as alternative technologies are policy decisions by governments in terms of regulations, such as government procurement schemes and fuel specifications, along with financial and economic instruments, such as subsidies and preferential taxation. In this framework, the present analysis is a prospective as to the future development of a biofuel program in the European Union and the hypothetical role of developing countries as suppliers in this new market. The focus of this article is, exclusively, on liquid fuels.