基于主成分分析法的商业银行财务评价研究

如何对商业银行财务状况做出科学全面的评价,日益成为监管者、投资人和管理者关注的焦点。通过总结以往商业银行财务评价研究中存在问题,有针对性地提出一套商业银行财务评价方法。首先按照"盈利性、安全性、流动性"的商业银行经营原则,构建起一套商业银行财务评价指标体系,然后以13家上市银行为样本,运用主成分分析法完成财务综合评价函数设计,最后选取深圳发展银行为典型,应用所设计财务评价方法对其进行财务分析,以验证该方法的科学性和适用性。     

以主成分分析法构建企业财务危机预警模型

财务危机预警模型的建立,对企业预防和化解财务危机,提高其危机预警管理水平有着重要的意义.目前国内外学者对财务危机预警模型的研究主要集中在多元回归分析模型、多元判别分析模型、神经网络预警模型等模型的构建上,本文将采用主成分分析法,利用上市公司财务数据,构建财务危机预警模型.     

基于主成分分析的我国系统重要性保险公司研究

基于主成分分析方法评估保险公司的系统重要性,实现对原始指标体系的降维和去相关性,从而构建我国系统重要性保险公司评估指标体系;并结合旋转载荷数据分析各原始指标对主成分的影响力,使用主成分预测得到我国寿险业和产险业系统重要性保险公司排名。结果显示,在构建的原始指标体系中,总资产、二级分支机构数量和投资收益指标对评估结果具有重要影响力。在预测的排名中具有系统重要性的产险公司不仅在总量上多于寿险公司,而且相对集中于高级别的区间,一旦被触发出现危机,其对保险行业乃至整个金融体系带来危害的可能性更高,且危害的程度可能更深。此外,记录的10家保险集团下的产、寿险公司均具备系统重要性,建议监管当局审慎对待保险公司集团化趋势。     

Using Nonfinancial Measures to Assess Fraud Risk

This study examines whether auditors can effectively use nonfinancial measures (NFMs) to assess the reasonableness of financial performance and, thereby, help detect financial statement fraud (hereafter, fraud). If auditors or other interested parties (e.g., directors, lenders, investors, or regulators) can identify NFMs (e.g., facilities growth) that are correlated with financial measures (e.g., revenue growth), inconsistent patterns between the NFMs and financial measures can be used to detect firms with high fraud risk. We find that the  difference  between financial and nonfinancial performance is significantly greater for firms that committed fraud than for their nonfraud competitors. We also find that this difference is a significant fraud indicator when included in a model containing variables that have previously been linked to the likelihood of fraud. Overall, our results provide empirical evidence suggesting that NFMs can be effectively used to assess fraud risk.     

基于主成分分析的中外资银行竞争力比较研究

本文基于主成分分析对我国银行业具有代表性的20家中外资银行的竞争力进行综合评价、比较。研究结果表明,国内本土商业银行的经营效益和综合竞争力强于外资银行;外资银行则在风险控制能力和业务创新能力方面具备竞争优势。根据实证分析结果,本文进一步分析了中外资银行竞争优势和劣势的成因,并对培育和提升国内商业银行竞争力提出了相关政策建议。     

基于主成分分析的大非减持水平影响因素研究

在对大非减持影响因素展开理论分析后,采用主成分分析方法从18个原始变量中提取8个主成分因子。实证检验了各主成分因子对于大非减持比例的影响。研究结果表明,大非减持水平受到股东属性、股权集中度、股票价格和股票收益的影响,而与企业盈利能力、企业营运能力、股权制衡和高管结构之间的关系则不明显。最后根据研究结果,对中小投资者、证券监管部门以及上市公司提出参考性建议,以促进中国证券市场的稳健发展。     

基于主成分分析的中国省域公务员规模测量研究

采用政府人力投入的经济指数、财力指数、市场化指数、面积指数、交通指数、通讯指数、人口指数、就业指数、国民素质指数等9项相对指标作为测量标准,引入主成分分析方法对中国省域公务员规模进行科学测量的结果表明,约占六成的公务员规模是适度的,绝大多数省区间的公务员规模呈现同质化。这可能是机构刚性和制度惯性所致。因此,各省区应科学界定政府职能与设置政府机构体系,完善公务员编制管理制度,推行公务员动态管理模式,优化公务员编制规模。     

法兴欺诈案：无名小卒重创金融巨擘

2008年1月24日,法国兴业银行(以下简称法兴)发布公告,声称由于一名交易员的非授权交易给银行造成了49亿欧元(71亿美元)的巨额损失,但银行仍然保持盈利,只是利润由2006年的52.21亿欧元降至9.47亿欧元,同时银行已准备增发55亿欧元股粟以保持核心资本达到充足率的要求。这名交易员就是31岁的杰洛米·科维     

A Comparison of State-of-the-Art Classification Techniques for Expert Automobile Insurance Claim Fraud Detection

Several state‐of‐the‐art binary classification techniques are experimentally evaluated in the context of expert automobile insurance claim fraud detection. The predictive power of logistic regression, C4.5 decision tree, k‐nearest neighbor, Bayesian learning multilayer perceptron neural network, least‐squares support vector machine, naive Bayes, and tree‐augmented naive Bayes classification is contrasted. For most of these algorithm types, we report on several operationalizations using alternative hyperparameter or design choices. We compare these in terms of mean percentage correctly classified (PCC) and mean area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve using a stratified, blocked, ten‐fold cross‐validation experiment. We also contrast algorithm type performance visually by means of the convex hull of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves associated with the alternative operationalizations per algorithm type. The study is based on a data set of 1,399 personal injury protection claims from 1993 accidents collected by the Automobile Insurers Bureau of Massachusetts. To stay as close to real‐life operating conditions as possible, we consider only predictors that are known relatively early in the life of a claim. Furthermore, based on the qualification of each available claim by both a verbal expert assessment of suspicion of fraud and a ten‐point‐scale expert suspicion score, we can compare classification for different target/class encoding schemes. Finally, we also investigate the added value of systematically collecting nonflag predictors for suspicion of fraud modeling purposes. From the observed results, we may state that: (1) independent of the target encoding scheme and the algorithm type, the inclusion of nonflag predictors allows us to significantly boost predictive performance; (2) for all the evaluated scenarios, the performance difference in terms of mean PCC and mean AUROC between many algorithm type operationalizations turns out to be rather small; visual comparison of the algorithm type ROC curve convex hulls also shows limited difference in performance over the range of operating conditions; (3) relatively simple and efficient techniques such as linear logistic regression and linear kernel least‐squares support vector machine classification show excellent overall predictive capabilities, and (smoothed) naive Bayes also performs well; and (4) the C4.5 decision tree operationalization results are rather disappointing; none of the tree operationalizations are capable of attaining mean AUROC performance in line with the best. Visual inspection of the evaluated scenarios reveals that the C4.5 algorithm type ROC curve convex hull is often dominated in large part by most of the other algorithm type hulls.     

论出口骗税的防范与治理

随着国际贸易的发展,出口骗税问题日益复杂化和多样化.如何防范和打击出口骗税行为已成为当前一个亟待解决的课题.对此,各国纷纷采取措施,从制度设计、税收管理、监控检查、机构设置等方面对出口骗税进行防范和打击.本文借鉴了国际经验,对我国防范与治理出口骗税提出了建议.     

基于主成份和灰色预测法的房地产金融风险预警体系研究

为构筑房地产市场金融风险防火墙体系,本文借鉴国内外房地产市场风险预警方法和经验,采用主成份分析法、灰色预测法等数理统计分析方法,构建了房地产金融风险预警体系。采用该预警体系对山东省近15年的房地产金融市场运行状况进行实证分析,得出的对市场运行状况的警情判断与实际情况基本吻合。     

浅析瑞幸财务造假的过程与影响

瑞幸公司自成立以来,始终站在资本运作的风口浪尖,创下全球最快IPO纪录.2020年4月,瑞幸发布公告自曝公司内部财务造假,事件爆发后,瑞幸股价一度大跌超过85％并触发熔断,该事件再一次引发大家对上市公司造假的思考.本文通过介绍事件的经过及造假手法来引发对上市公司财务造假影响和监管措施的思考.     

我国上市公司财务报告舞弊特征分析

上市公司财务报告舞弊是我国资本市场的一大顽疾,其长期存在不仅严重损害了投资者的利益,也阻碍了我国资本市场的良性发展.选择2000～2011年因财务报告舞弊被处罚的主板A股非金融类上市公司122家,共计237个统计样本,从行业特征、舞弊类型、舞弊并发性和持续性方面对上市公司财务报告舞弊特征进行统计分析,发现进行财务舞弊的上市公司在行业分布上多集中于制造业,在舞弊类型上以推迟披露为主并具有并发性,在舞弊时间上具有持续性.     

美国南方保健公司财务舞弊案例剖析——萨班斯—奥克斯利法案颁布后美国司法部督办的第一要案

本文深入剖析了萨班斯—奥克斯利法案颁布后美国司法部亲自督办的第一要案南方保健公司的财务舞弊以及安永会计师事务所的审计失败 ,并从独立审计和公司治理的角度提出了若干警示。     

美国寿险公司资产配置的结构变迁及启示

美国寿险公司资产配置结构变迁具有一些显著特征:账户进行严格的分类管理,不同的帐户执行不同的收益目标和资产配置策略;在保持资产配置结构总体稳定的前提下,根据社会经济的结构变化及各类资产风险-收益的相对变化适时进行结构调整以获取稳定的、相对较高的收益.美国的经验是,根据经济、金融结构变化适时调整资产配置结构是寿险公司服务社会经济,获取良好、稳定收益的重要条件.     

证券市场欺诈客户行为的司法认定

本文突破现有证券违规立法的框架结构,大胆探索欺诈客户证券违规行为模式,对证券欺诈客户刑事犯罪化问题进行探讨,解决了<证券法>与<刑法>在欺诈客户行为不同法律责任问题上的交叉问题.     

Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis

We apply the powerful, flexible, and computationally efficient nonparametric Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to analyze real estate mortgage data. CART is particularly appropriate for our data set because of its strengths in dealing with large data sets, high dimensionality, mixed data types, missing data, different relationships between variables in different parts of the measurement space, and outliers. Moreover, CART is intuitive and easy to interpret and implement. We discuss the pros and cons of CART in relation to traditional methods such as linear logistic regression, nonparametric additive logistic regression, discriminant analysis, partial least squares classification, and neural networks, with particular emphasis on real estate. We use CART to produce the first academic study of Israeli mortgage default data. We find that borrowers features, rather than mortgage contract features, are the strongest predictors of default if accepting icbadli borrowers is more costly than rejecting good ones. If the costs are equal, mortgage features are used as well. The higher (lower) the ratio of misclassification costs of bad risks versus good ones, the lower (higher) are the resulting misclassification rates of bad risks and the higher (lower) are the misclassification rates of good ones. This is consistent with real-world rejection of good risks in an attempt to avoid bad ones.     

其他应收款的舞弊与审计

其他应收款是用来核算企业与内部及外部单位往来的重要科目,由于其核算内容相当繁杂,该科目很容易成为某些单位或个人舞弊的工具。注册会计师为了对企业的财务状况和经营成果的真实性和公允性进行鉴证和评价,防止由于舞弊产生的重大错报风险,应对其他应收款科目予以特别关注。     

欧盟可持续金融分类法解析与借鉴

2020年3月,《欧盟可持续金融分类方案》的最终报告与政策建议正式发布,该分类法可帮助投资者实现低碳投资、公司实现低碳转型、发行人开展信息披露,引导欧洲向低碳经济转型,实现可持续发展。本文对《欧盟可持续金融分类方案》的背景、标准、活动范畴进行解析,旨在为可持续声明的披露和审查以及践行可持续投资提供借鉴。     

会计舞弊手法及其鉴别

会计舞弊,是指心怀不良企图者指使或授意会计人员弄虚作假,以谋取名利的行为.随着会计改革和税制改革的深入,新的作弊手法又会顺应时机变化而产生,旧的作弊手法也会花样翻新,更加诡秘.因此,审计工作面临会计作弊多样化、诡秘化、复杂化的挑战.