Emerging market sovereign bond spreads and shifts in global market sentiment

The paper studies how the relationship between emerging market sovereign bond spreads, economic fundamentals and global financial market conditions differs across three regimes of global market sentiment. Following the identification of periods characterized by low, medium and high volatility in financial markets, we analyze the behavior of spreads from three different angles. First, we demonstrate that the cross-country correlation of spreads increases in high-volatility regimes, implying that countries cannot fully decouple from developments in other emerging markets during periods of distress. Second, using the interactions of several domestic and global variables with the probabilities of each regime prevailing in a given period as the explanatory variables of spreads, the fixed effects panel estimation shows that while country-specific fundamentals are important determinants of spreads in each regime, the importance of global financial conditions increases in high-volatility periods. Third, we show that countries can benefit from stronger fundamentals in the form of lower exposure of their sovereign spreads to unfavorable regime shifts in global market sentiment.     

Stock market,credit market,and heterogeneous innovations

The relative importance of credit market development and stock market development in boosting innovation remains a long-standing debate issue. In this study, we document how different types of financial markets development affect heterogeneous innovations. Using a broad sample across 42 developed and emerging economies and a generalized difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that stock market development leads to significantly higher substantive innovation, especially in young and small firms, but has negative impact on incremental innovation. Conversely, credit market development promotes incremental innovation, especially in mature and large firms, but has negative impact on substantive innovation. Further analyses indicate that stronger shareholder protection enhances the positive impact of stock market on substantive innovation, while stronger creditor rights enhance the promoting effect of credit market on incremental innovation, and even turn the negative impact of credit market on substantive innovation into positive. Our paper provides new insights into the heterogeneous effects of credit market and equity markets on the real economy.     

The roles of news and volatility in stock market correlations during the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis has again brought the interdependencies of international financial markets to the fore, particularly during times of financial crises. This paper explores the relative roles of news and volatility in explaining the changes in correlations between national stock markets during the global financial crisis. Our results show that the majority of the correlations are more strongly explained by volatility rather than news. However as the global financial crisis evolves the relative role of news grows in importance.     

A global market advantage framework: the role of global market knowledge competencies

The globalization forces engender companies to develop a new set of competencies that would enable the generation of abnormal returns in the global marketplace. This article reviews the extant literature regarding the effect of globalization on organizations and develops a conceptual framework that underlines the importance of knowledge management competencies in creating global market advantage. The knowledge management competencies consist of global customer, competitor and supplier knowledge development, inter-functional coordination and value chain coordination. The relationship between global market knowledge competencies and global market advantage is partially mediated by company's responsiveness. Global market advantage is positively associated with company's strategic and financial performance.     

基于全球经济大系统的金融危机传染机制研究

站在全球经济大系统的高度,分析国际金融危机的实体传染机制、金融传染机制和预期传染机制。为切断危机传染的途径、防范危机传染的发生,应提高实体部门、金融机构和金融市场的抗传染能力,减少市场预期的负面影响,加强国际协调与合作等。     

Can emerging market central banks bail out banks? A cautionary tale from Latin America

This paper investigates whether emerging market countries can implement monetary policies to cope with financial crises as advanced countries did during the recent global crisis—injecting significant amounts of money into the financial system without facing major short-run adverse macroeconomic repercussions. Using panel data techniques, the paper analyzes episodes of financial turmoil in 16 Latin American countries during 1995–2007. The results show that developing and emerging market countries should be cautious because injecting money on a large scale into the financial system may fuel further macroeconomic instability, increasing the chances of simultaneous currency crises.     

Internationalization strategies of emerging market banks: Challenges and opportunities

The greatly improved economic fundamentals of the major emerging economies over the last decade have propelled several emerging banks into the ranks of the world’s largest. Despite their importance in the global economy, the internationalization of emerging market banks remains an understudied phenomenon. This article examines factors that may influence the internationalization strategies of emerging market banks in the private banking sector, both when going abroad (take-off) and upon arrival in a host country (landing). The private banking sector is of significant interest given its importance in many leading financial centers around the world while undergoing major transformation due to the worldwide financial crisis, several recent scandals, and a fast-changing regulatory environment. We highlight the internationalization strategies of two banks from emerging countries, China and Brazil, and their experience in Switzerland’s traditional private banking sector. These two cases highlight factors that may influence successful internationalization such as prior industry experience, existing client base, entry strategy, ownership type, and the liability of foreignness. Our findings offer valuable implications for managers from other emerging economies by providing a better understanding of how emerging market banks expand internationally.     

Does corruption increase emerging market bond spreads?

We study the relationship between corruption and borrowing costs for governments and firms in emerging markets. Combining data on bonds traded in the global market with survey data on corruption compiled by Transparency International, we show that countries that are perceived as more corrupt must pay a higher risk premium when issuing bonds. The global bond market ascribes a significant cost to corruption: an improvement in the corruption score from the level of Lithuania to that of the Czech Republic lowers the bond spread by about one-fifth. This is true even after controlling for macroeconomic effects that are correlated with corruption. We find little evidence that investors became more sensitive to corruption in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.     

Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis

We investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008–09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. Our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round. The review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and episodes in the past. For the 2008–09 crisis, we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence: drops in GDP and industrial production, currency depreciation, stock market performance, reserve losses, and participation in an IMF program. We find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008–09 crisis, in line with the conclusions of the pre-2008 literature. In addition to reserves, recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis. We define the period of the global financial shock as running from late 2008 to early 2009, which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as Obstfeld et al. (2009, 2010) and Rose and Spiegel (2009a,b, 2010, 2011) which use annual data.     

The global financial crisis and Islamic finance

The conventional view holds that the current global financial crisis was caused by extraordinarily high liquidity, reckless lending practices, and the rapid pace of financial engineering, which created complex and opaque financial instruments used for risk transfer. There was a breakdown of the lender‐borrower relationship and informational problems caused by a lack of transparency in asset market prices, particularly in the market for structured credit instruments. There was outdated, lax, or absent regulatory‐supervisory oversight; faulty risk management and accounting models; and the emergence of an incentive structure that not only encouraged excessive risk taking but also created a complicit coalition of financial institutions, real estate developers and appraisers, insurance companies, and credit rating agencies whose actions led to a deliberate underpricing of risk. Such a crisis would not have occurred under an Islamic financial system—due to the fact that most, if not all, of the factors that have caused or contributed to the development and spread of the crisis are not allowed under the rules and guidance of Shariah. The current global financial crisis is largely seen as a real test of the resilience of the Islamic financial services industry and its ability to present itself as a more reliable alternative to the conventional financial system. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Does Bank Diversification Improve Output Growth? Evidence from the Recent Global Crisis

This study examines whether the diversity of activities conducted by the banking sector in the years approaching the recent global financial crisis alleviated the adverse impact of the crisis. Using data for 28 industries in 66 countries, we find that bank diversification has strengthened country resilience to the crisis, as measured by industry growth over the period 2008–2009. However, we find that while both bank‐based and market‐based economies have been affected negatively by the crisis, the contribution of bank diversification in mitigating the real impact of the crisis is pronounced only in bank‐based economies. Overall, our findings suggest that countries with significant bank diversification have also been the most resilient to the recent global crisis.     

Impact of the Financial Crisis on Cross‐Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Concentration in the Global Banking Industry

The global banking industry has seen dramatic changes in the past 40 years. Most recently, the financial liberalization of emerging markets and the global financial crisis have significantly impacted the market share of banks worldwide. This article investigates the impact of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the banking sector and emphasizes the role of emerging‐market banks in the postcrisis consolidation trend. Using M&A data and concentration data over the period 2000–2013, our analysis indicates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on worldwide M&As, especially on the direction of the transactions. Emerging‐market banks appear to be major acquirers in the postcrisis period, targeting both neighboring countries and developed economies in Europe. We also observe an increase in bank concentration in developed markets most hit by the financial crisis, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas bank concentration decreased in emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Capital flows,current account deficits,and financial crises in emerging market economies

Some emerging market economies are said to face today conditions similar to those faced by Mexico in 1994 at the time of its serious financial crisis. This paper identifies a number of macroeconomic and financial indicators, constructs a profile of the Mexican economy at the time of the crisis, and then compares these with the conditions in other major emerging market economies in Latin America and Asia today in order to determine the extent to which they resemble those of Mexico at the time of the 1994 crisis. The conclusion is reached that macroeconomic and financial indicators cannot by themselves predict Mexican-style financial crises. In today's world of highly integrated capital markets, any anticipation of financial unsustainability can lead to a massive capital outflow from the nation and trigger a crisis, with the catalyst usually being a worsening political problem. The usefulness of the indicators discussed is in providing a profile of the financial condition of the nation, evaluating the potential danger of a financial crisis, anticipating the depth of the crisis if one arises, and pointing to the precautions that a nation can take in trying to avoid a crisis or reduce its severity if one does occur.     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

次贷危机之于中国:成因、影响及启示

种种迹象表明,美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机远未结束,国际金融动荡将继续波动不稳.尽管我国金融市场相对封闭,开放程度不是很高,但是,此次美国次贷危机对我国金融市场产生的影响也不容小觑.我国政府应强化金融风险意识,在经济增长过程中必须控制风险;加强对房贷业务的管理,稳健发展房贷市场;积极稳妥地推进金融创新,加强对金融衍生产品的风险管理,在推进金融创新中提升风险管理能力;建立完善的信息披露机制,规范贷款业务,提高我国监管部门的风险判断能力和监管能力.     

Stock liquidity and ownership structure during and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Empirical evidence from an emerging market

This paper examines the impact of ownership structure, whether state owned, foreign owned or institutionally owned, on Vietnamese stock market liquidity in different market conditions. We find that state ownership is associated with lower liquidity after the 2008 financial crisis. Institutional ownership shows a weak influence on liquidity in the post-crisis period. During the financial crisis, however, liquidity declines could not be attributed to ownership structure. Our results imply that foreign investors have not yet played a significant role in driving stock market liquidity in Vietnam, which is counter to findings in the existing literature concerning liquidity in more developed markets. Our results are consistent across conventional liquidity measures and a composite liquidity measure.     

An Interview With Ben S. Bernanke

In this interview, Dr. Bernanke recounts the concerns of his early days as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006 and the onset of the 2007–09 financial crisis. He then turns to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and AIG and its fallout. He emphasizes how important it is for the public to understand the Federal Reserve and what it does and the consequent importance of clear communication. Turning to postcrisis policies, he discusses unwinding quantitative easing, the global low-interest rate environment, and the importance of the Federal Reserve in maintaining financial stability. He expresses his confidence that recent measures make the U.S. economy less vulnerable to financial shocks than before the crisis. He also makes comments on income inequality and the housing market and discusses the statistics that he monitors regularly on the U.S. and global economies.     

Leveraging local knowledge or global advantage: Cross border bank mergers and acquisitions in Africa

This paper examines global financial markets perception of value creation for banks from across the world initiating or expanding their operations on the African continent through mergers and acquisitions (M&As) over the period 2000–2018. Especially before and during the financial crisis, we document a strong advantage of Pan-African Banks (PABs) over domestic and emerging market banks and a slight advantage over advanced market banks. These results are in line with the hypothesis that PABs benefitted from both a global expertise and local knowledge advantage in the market for corporate control. We also document how retrenchment of global banks during and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have created opportunities for PABs.     

国际造船市场2008年回顾与2009年展望

2008年注定又是不平凡的一年,继续多年兴旺的造船市场在金融危机的影响下显现“拐点”,观望,恐慌,不知所措,充斥整个市场,市场交易几乎处于停滞状态,由于金融危机对世界实体经济的最坏影响仍未出现,预计2009年国际造船市场面临的环境更加严峻,行情进一步下设亦将成为其必然的趋势.     

Dynamic interdependence of ASEAN5 with G5 stock markets

We find ASEAN5 and G5 stock markets are weakly linked in normal conditions. ASEAN5 markets became more connected with G5 markets during global financial crisis, with stronger conditional correlations, a higher level of risk spillover-connectedness and intensive causal risk dependence. By implications, ASEAN5 stocks are both return enhancers and risk diversifiers in boom market conditions. The diversification benefits remain even during crisis times, albeit lesser. Over the longer term, the diversification benefits of a portfolio that includes both ASEAN5 and G5 stocks are recaptured as market linkages revert to some lower levels due to decreased crisis contagion.