市场化改革：体育接轨国际的必然选择

体育市场化改革的必要性我国加入WTO谈判的15年,是确立社会主义市场经济、并以此为目标加快改革的15年。我国以WTO的规则为参照系,进行了从降低关税、放开物价、取消出口补贴、统一双重汇率、公开贸易政策、到放开国内市场的一系列改革。江泽民总书记在《财富》全球论坛香港年会的讲话中指出:“加入世界贸易组织后,中国将有步骤地扩大商品和服务贸易领域的刘外开放,为国内外企业创造公开、统一、平等竞争的条件,建立和健全符合国际经济通行的规则,符合中国国情的对外经济贸易体制,为国外企业来华进行经贸合作提供更多、更稳定的市场准入机会”。由此可见,我国加入WTO的最大挑战就是市场化改革,体育接轨国际的重要举措是加快市场化进程。     

人民币国际化背景下的金融稳定问题研究

在人民币国际化的进程中,汇率波动将成为一种常态。外部冲击通过贸易收支、直接投资和资本市场影响汇率,进而影响一国的金融稳定。货币政策是影响汇率波动的重要因素,中央银行需要通过利率、货币供给、存款准备金等政策工具的有效组合,实现币值稳定和金融稳定的双重目标。文章通过汇率影响路径的研究,构建了一个金融稳定问题的分析框架。     

资本账户开放度影响因素的实证分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章提出包括经济发展水平、国内金融市场深度、金融市场流动性和多样性、对外投资规模、宏观经济稳健性和外汇储备充足程度6个影响资本账户开放度的因素,通过多元线性回归,得到资本账户开放度的影响因素模型。在此基础上提出我国资本市场应该坚持有限和定向的开放。这是因为虽然我国宏观经济金融基本稳定,但利率尚未市场化且汇率政策弹性仍旧不足,所以资本账户还未到全面开放的时间,但是未来几年中国应该抓住上海自贸区带来的难得的机遇,在一定程度上加快资本账户开放的步伐,更快与发达国家接轨。资本账户有限开放是指放松金融服务业的市场准入门槛,以及对资本市场开放设投资方资格要求。定向开放是指我国根据人民币国际化的战略需要与未来战略伙伴国家签订由中国政府主导的双边投资协定,将中国金融市场准入的资格作为我国政府推进人民币国际化的策略工具。     

资本账户开放度影响因素的实证分析

文章提出包括经济发展水平、国内金融市场深度、金融市场流动性和多样性、对外投资规模、宏观经济稳健性和外汇储备充足程度6个影响资本账户开放度的因素,通过多元线性回归,得到资本账户开放度的影响因素模型。在此基础上提出我国资本市场应该坚持有限和定向的开放。这是因为虽然我国宏观经济金融基本稳定,但利率尚未市场化且汇率政策弹性仍旧不足,所以资本账户还未到全面开放的时间,但是未来几年中国应该抓住上海自贸区带来的难得的机遇,在一定程度上加快资本账户开放的步伐,更快与发达国家接轨。资本账户有限开放是指放松金融服务业的市场准入门槛,以及对资本市场开放设投资方资格要求。定向开放是指我国根据人民币国际化的战略需要与未来战略伙伴国家签订由中国政府主导的双边投资协定,将中国金融市场准入的资格作为我国政府推进人民币国际化的策略工具。     

新中国70年金融开放的逻辑机理与经验启示:兼论中美贸易摩擦下的开放取向

新中国成立70年以来,中国金融业在微观与宏观领域都发挥着不可替代的作用。金融开放作为中国对外开放格局的重要组成部分,既符合金融业自身的发展需要,也是深化金融供给侧结构性改革,推动经济高质量发展的内在要求。文章在将中国金融开放分为萌芽孕育、基础奠定、深入探索以及稳健推进四个历史演化阶段的基础上,从促使产业结构调整、推动贸易投资便利化、倒逼金融监管制度改革以及加快资源要素流动四个方面阐释其逻辑机理,进而认为中国金融对外开放的经验主要表现为多方位金融开放、渐进式金融开放、统筹国际国内市场化改革以及从宏观角度看待金融危机。文章还结合当前中美贸易摩擦中潜在的问题风险,提出未来中国将持续推动金融市场的对外开放,深化外汇管理体制改革,保持外汇管理政策的连续稳定性;建设多元化金融市场体系,提升服务实体经济水平;协同金融开放与创新,提高金融资源配置效率;深化金融监管制度改革,有效防控系统性金融风险等政策建议。     

开放经济中的利率市场化问题研究

利率市场化是开放经济的必然要求，在开放的国际经济环境中对利率进行长期管制是不现实的。在开放经济中只有通过利率市场化进行金融深化，提高国内金融市场效率，才能更好地利用国外资本，避免形成对外资的依附。当前我国利率市场化应通过打破市场进入壁垒、培育微观市场主体和完善市场结构和重点建设市场利率形成机制逐步推行。同时利率调控机制建设也是利率市场化的重要内容，在开放经济中利率市场化和浮动汇率制度应当同步。     

市场获得与区域发展差距:来自中国城市经济的实证

由市场规模演化而来的市场获得(market access)是新经济地理学从需求角度解释空间经济差异的核心变量。本文在计算我国主要城市市场获得的基础上,考察了城市尤其是区域中心城市的市场获得与工资、人均产出等经济发展指标的关系。在控制了人力资本、市场化水平等因素后,研究结果表明,市场获得是我国区域间城市经济发展差距的重要原因,在区域中心城市层面显得尤为突出;进一步的研究显示,区域中心城市的开放程度与同区域其他城市的一体化对区域中心城市的市场获得存在正向促进作用,这间接地影响着区域城市经济的发展差距。     

贸易结构、人力资本与全要素生产率增长——基于中国数据的经验研究

贸易开放带采的技术溢出是发展中国家提高全要素生产率的重要渠道，技术溢出的效果与贸易结构相关，并且需要一定的人力资本存量相结合。本文运用DEA方法测算1980—2006年中国的全要素生产率变化，然后通过基于ECM的Granger因果关系检验法分析贸易结构和人力资本联合指标对全要素生产率变化的影响。结果显示：相对于中低技术品，高技术品进口的技术溢出效果更明显，在更大程度上提高我国的全要素生产率；相对于人力资本的结构和分布，人力资本水平更直接地影响技术溢出的吸收效果，影响全要素生产率。因此，调整贸易结构和增加教育投资是强化贸易开放的全要素生产率效应的两个必然的政策选择。     

推进利率市场化的制度改革与政策

如果企业不具有产品定价权而必须负担盈亏责任的话,那显然是比较困难的;如果国有银行对资金借贷成本不具有定价权而想要成为真正的商业银行的话,无疑也十分艰巨。历史总要从某个事件开始,而金融体制改革的进一步深化就从利率市场化开始了,外币贷款利率的市场化已经迈开了我国利率市场化改革的第一步。 利率是金融产品的价格。我国长达半个世纪的利率管制使金融产品的价格十分稳定,除股票市场、债券市场以外,占据金融市场70%—80%份额的银行借贷业务价格基本稳定,只是在政府的利率调整政策下有平缓的变动。从表面看金融的主导业务几乎没有价格波动的风险。这对我国现阶段金融体系格局、金融机构服务内容、金融产品种类的形成起到一种奠基性的作用。从整体上说,我国目前金融领域的基本特征可以形容为:资本市场相对银行业务市场不发达;金融产品种类少;金融机构的服务种类少;金融机构垄断性强,还有垄断利润。这些基本特征的形成都与利率非市场化有紧密联系。但是,一旦放开利率管制,任利率自由浮动,整个金融活动领域都会发生深刻的、近乎革命性的变化。     

金融服务贸易对金融稳定的促进功能

一、金融服务贸易影响金融稳定的渠道金融自由化对金融稳定所产生的影响体现在许多具体方面：如金融服务质量的提高、技能转移以及更好的风险控制等，但金融业的性质决定了能力培植、资本流动和效率因素等三个渠道是自由化影响金融稳定的主渠道。能力培植（capacitybuilding）含义很广，主要是指金融服务贸易对审慎监管、透明度、金融基础设施和市场发育的影响。金融业是在一定的金融体制架构内运行的。金融业不同于其他行业，需要有充分的监管和业务运作设施，如交易设施。监管及金融体制的其他要素是金融业稳健、高效运营的基本条件和环境…     

博弈合作下的市场决定作用和政府高效调控

政府与市场之间关系的变更、边界的调整,是一个长期和动态的博弈过程,政府与市场博弈的结果呈现四种组合模式,由于市场经济中存在着"市场失灵"与"政府失灵"现象,政府与市场之间应建构一种相互合作、相互纠补的新型关系。从我国市场经济改革变迁与演化的历史经验来看,必须科学厘清政府与市场的关系,明确政府与市场的边界;使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用,加快推进政府职能转变与创新;掌握好政府收和放的关系,更好地发挥政府有效调控功能;让政府与市场在博弈中实现优势互补,达到市场决定与政府调控的最佳契合点。     

我国企业海外并购提升了公司价值吗——以吉利并购沃尔沃为例

汽车企业海外并购有利于谋求市场和技术,实现全球资源配置和新的利润增长点。以吉利汽车并购沃尔沃汽车这一特有的"蛇吞象"式海外并购事件为例,从市场反应和财务绩效两方面来研究吉利并购沃尔沃能否提升公司价值:从市场反应发现其累积超常收益率并没有跑赢市场;从财务指标变动趋势发现,盈利能力并不稳健,成长能力逐年减弱,风险水平比较高,长期来看将会使股东的财富受到损失。最后从微观和宏观层面上对我国海外并购提出几点建议。     

云南普洱茶市场价格预警指标体系的设计与测度

基于云南普洱茶市场面临的国内外环境状态,依据经济预警和农产品预警理论基础,以及指标优选原则,设计包括警情、警源和警兆的云南普洱茶市场价格预警指标体系,并以勐海沱茶的市场价格波动为例,应用时差相关分析法得到9个先行指标,5个同步指标和10个滞后指标,由此反映云南普洱茶市场价格时滞的影响因素。这既有利于帮助决策者根据指标的等级变化采取针对性措施,又为进一步研究打下良好的基础。     

Adjustment,employment characteristics and intra-industry trade

Adjustment, Employment Characteristics and Intra-Industry Trade. — In this paper we use data on individual workers to investigate a number of dimensions of adjustment and relate these to trade. Specifically, we estimate the relative incidence of changes in workers’ employment status with regard to sector, firm, occupation and region. We relate the incidence of adjustment to a range of labour market characteristics and indicators of trade exposure. Our findings are not consistent with the notion that there is a systematic relationship between the type of trade expansion (inter- or intra-industry) and the type of employment adjustment (within or between industry adjustment) or that there is less labour market adjustment associated with intra- than inter-industry trade.     

Labour Market Adjustments to Financing Conditions under Sectoral Rigidities in the Euro Area

This paper analyses empirically the response of labour market indicators to changing financing conditions in a panel of 15 euro area countries from 1999Q1 to 2015Q4. Using a local projections approach, we estimate impulse responses of three margins of sectoral labour market adjustment – employment, hours worked and real wages. Consistent with recent results in the literature, we find contractionary financing shocks to depress all three indicators of the labour market. Furthermore, responses are asymmetric depending on the sign of the shock, different in magnitude depending on the sectoral composition, and sensitive to labour market institutions such as employment protection legislation and union density. Finally, labour market institutions seem to mainly affect the relative strength of the adjustment margins and not so much the overall response of the wage bill.     

ECFA背景下两岸证券市场合作的溢出效应与合作障碍

ECFA的签署与实施标志着两岸证券市场合作间接化阶段的基本结束与正常化进程的开启,给两岸证券业带来了市场开放与扩大、技术进步、人才交流和信息共享等巨大的溢出效应。但两岸证券市场合作还存在着一些障碍,这也是两岸证券市场合作需要进一步突破的方向。     

Labour hoarding in a disequilibrium model of the Dutch labour market

Summary This paper presents a method to integrate labour hoarding into a disequilibrium model of the labour market. Disequilibrium indicators for the labour market that include labour hoarding are constructed. These indicators, being important determinants of policy multipliers with respect to employment, are found to be less volatile than the corresponding disequilibrium indicators for the goods market which are available from business surveys. The lower volatility reflects the role of labour hoarding as a buffer between actual and efficient employment levels. Our results indicate that labour hoarding in Dutch enterprises ranges from a minimum of 0.5 per cent of employment in early 1985 to a maximum of 7.0 per cent in 1975. Furthermore, the paper pays special attention to the modelling of mismatch unemployment and to the simulation results of an empirical disequilibrium macromodel of the Dutch economy.The authors thank M.M.G. Fase and two anonymous referees for their useful comments.     

How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable factors have been identified from this volatile market through a careful exploration of a monthly survey data set for the period of 2003–2011. The main findings are: (i) Wenzhou's informal credit lending rates are highly receptive to monetary policies; (ii) Wenzhou's market is dominantly demand driven; (iii) Wenzhou's informal lending is substitutive to bank savings in the short run but complementary to banking lending in the long run; and (iv) Wenzhou's market is complementary to excessive investments in the local real estate market.     

Subjective Well-Being Around Retirement

This paper studies the effect of both retirement and unemployment on life satisfaction, using subjective satisfaction indicators from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Moreover, we analyze how accurate individuals anticipate changes in satisfaction around retirement, as well as the correlation between the forecast error in life satisfaction and the labor market status. Being unemployed has a significant negative effect on life satisfaction; (in)voluntary retirement on the other hand has no significant effect on life satisfaction. A new finding is that unemployed individuals underestimate future life satisfaction. That is, their current labor market status has temporary negative effects on well-being, but, after 5 years, individuals are happier with their life than previously anticipated. We find no effects of (in)voluntary retirement on the forecast error.     

Stock market performance in Hong Kong: an exploratory review

This paper reviews the origin and development of the stock market in Hong Kong. The first formal stock exchange, the Association of Stockbrokers in Hong Kong, was formed in 1891. However, the activities of the stock exchange are generally regarded as insignificant until the 1970s. Since the 1980s, there have been a number of major reforms and some significant developments. These include the unification of four stock exchanges; the establishment of the Securities and Futures Commission; the closer economic relations with Mainland China; the merger of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Futures Exchange to form the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx); the launch of the second board (Growth Enterprise Market); and the demutualisation of the HKEx. The Exchange generally responded positively to these reforms and developments. As a result, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant growth in terms of its market capitalisation ratio, turnover ratio, and the total value traded ratio. Despite the impressive growth in various stock market indicators, however, the Hong Kong stock market still faces some challenges, including regulatory challenges, as well as some concern over its future viability as a global equity hub.