基于人力资本分布方差的中国国民经济生产函数研究

由于存在劳动力剩余,用就业总量和反映人力资本积累规模的数量指标均难以有效解释中国经济增长。因此,本文用质量指标替代数量指标,选取全部就业人员中具有高中(含职业教育)至大学本科阶段学历者受教育水平的分布方差来测度人力资本,并构建相应的国民经济生产函数,解释中国1997—2009年间的产出增长。研究结果表明:本文提出的方法是有效的,当前中国人力资本投资的边际产出效果高于实物资本投资,职业教育的边际产出贡献高于高等教育。     

测量中国经济的劳动投入:1982—2000年

本文通过编制可以反映劳动质量变化的劳动投入指数,给出了包括劳动质量改善在内的劳动投入增长,同时明确了单纯从业人数增长和劳动质量改善在劳动投入增长中的相对重要性。本文通过分解的方法进一步探讨了劳动质量改善的源泉。主要结论有,1982—2000年期间,从业人数年均增长率为1.8%,而考虑劳动质量改善之后的劳动投入年均增长率高达3.23%。二者之差为劳动质量改善对劳动投入的贡献,其贡献度超过44%。分区间看,劳动质量改善对劳动投入增长的贡献呈上升趋势,由1982—1987年间的21%上升到1995—2000年的68%。劳动质量改善的源泉主要来自于整体从业人员中第一产业比重的下降,以及从业人员教育水平的提高。     

Economic Growth and Wage Stagnation in Peru: 1998–2012

From 1998 to 2012, the Peruvian economy exhibited rapid growth. Moreover, the composition of the labor force improved in terms of education and experience, two variables that are typically associated to higher human capital. The average worker in 2012 had a higher level of education and was one and a half years older than in 1998, reflecting the impact of the demographic transition. However, the average real wage was roughly constant. We show that a decline in the wage premium for education, and to a minor extent for experience, is responsible for the lack of growth in the average real wage. Had these two premia remained constant throughout the period of analysis, average labor earnings would have increased by about 2.6% per year, of which 0.7 percentage points are accounted for by the changes in the composition of the labor force in terms of age and education. We explore the role of the relative supply of workers with different levels of human capital as an explanation for the decline in the wage premium for education. Finally, we analyze the implications of these findings for some macroeconomic variables, as earnings and wage inequality, the labor share and total factor productivity.     

Optimal taxation in an endogenous growth model with variable population and public expenditure

In this paper we analyze second-best optimal taxation in an endogenous-growth model driven by public expenditure, in presence of endogenous fertility and labor supply. Normative analysis shows positive taxes on the number of children, which are necessary to correct for congestion in the publicly provided input (such as education and healthcare), negative public debt. Results on capital and labor income taxation depend on whether the public input is optimally provided.     

Do education quality and spillovers matter? Evidence on human capital and productivity in Greece

This paper estimates production functions for Greek regions over 1971–2011, using census data on educational human capital. We construct rich human capital series, where data for employees are decomposed according to their education level. In addition, we take into account possible effects due to education quality and spillovers. Our evidence shows that human capital has a strong positive association with labor productivity through upper secondary and tertiary education, while primary education exhibits a negative relationship and lower secondary education does not exhibit any association with productivity. Tertiary education spillovers along with a number of education quality indicators present a significant positive relationship with productivity. Overall, findings suggest that policy makers should account for education quality as well as spillovers and direct their efforts toward a more efficient and enhanced education system with emphasis on high education levels to improve labor productivity overall and reduce spatial productivity disparities.     

要素投入对中国电信服务业国际竞争力影响分析

笔者通过对中国和世界各国资本和劳动要素投入与电信服务业国际竞争力的相关分析发现,劳动和资本投入是影响市场竞争力的重要因素,其中资本要素与市场规模扩张能力的相关性更加明显。但是,根据世界各国要素投入与国际竞争力的弹性分析发现,一方面,单纯增加资本投入对提高国际竞争力仅有一定的拉动作用;另一方面,单纯增加劳动力反而不利于提高国际竞争力。因此,中国实现从电信大国到电信强国的转变,就要实现从以数量求发展到以质量赢竞争的转变。     

Measuring Price Responsiveness Under a Profit Maximization Framework

The distinguishing feature of the study is in using a globally flexible functional form that permits one to calculate different types of elasticities under both constant and variable output hypotheses. The Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost function alongwith the output supply condition form the basis of the econometric model. To measure inputsubstitutabilities, we used Alien-Uzawa, Morishima, and Shadow elasticities of substitution. Empirical results, based on 300 farm households from West Bengal, India, show that fertilizer is most price sensitive input. It is a gross substitute for manure and human labor but complement to bullock labor. Manure is a gross substitute for all the inputs whereas human labor is gross complement to bullock labor. Using the Morishima measure we find that the fertilizer and bullock labor are complements when the price of the latterchanges. Similar complementary relationship is found between bullock and human labor due to changes in the price of human labor. All other inputs are Morishima substitutes. The Shadow elasticity of substitution estimates indicate that all factors are substitutes. The estimate of returns to scale indicates the presence of diminishing returns to scale.

     

The Prospect of Migration,Sticky Wages,and “Educated Unemployment”

An increase in the probability of work abroad, where the returns to schooling are higher than at home, induces more individuals in a developing country to acquire education, which leads to an increase in the supply of educated workers in the domestic labor market. Where there is a sticky wage rate, the demand for labor at home will be constant. With a rising supply and constant demand, the rate of unemployment of educated workers in the domestic labor market will increase. Thus, the prospect of employment abroad causes involuntary “educated unemployment” at home. A government that is concerned about “educated unemployment” and might therefore be expected to encourage unemployed educated people to migrate will nevertheless, under certain conditions, elect to restrict the extent of the migration of educated individuals.     

OMITTED VARIABLES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF A LABOR QUALITY INDEX: THE CASE OF SPAIN

Traditional measures of labor quality might have the shortcoming of missing some features of the very important increase in labor utilization within European countries. In particular, we explore the case of Spain. Despite showing one of the most important increases in labor quality in the EU according to standard methods, it also presents a negative TFP growth. The paper shows the importance of considering—on top of observed changes in the composition of the labor force by gender, age, education, tenure, and nationality—changes in both average and relative productivities of those abovementioned socio‐demographic groups over time. We first use a time varying weight index in order to capture the decrease in relative productivities across characteristics. Once this issue is considered the estimated growth of labor quality decreases notably and the index becomes flat between 2002 and 2006. We relate this slowdown to the increasing over‐education of the Spanish workforce in the recent past. We then incorporate a selection model into the labor force. We argue that in the recent past there has been a massive entry of workers with below average unobserved abilities, generating a decrease in quality of labor. Indeed labor quality slightly decreased from 1995 onwards (always increasing without the selection model).     

瑞典解决公平与效率问题的经验及启示

瑞典在解决公平与效率问题上确立了以公平促进效率的机制:十分重视教育的发展;实施积极的劳动力市场政策和积极的公共财政政策。从瑞典经验出发,我们应该努力建立和完善以公平促进效率的机制:一方面应在思想上突破把效率与公平割裂开来甚至是对立的思维方式,另一方面,加大教育财政投入,逐步完善劳动力市场,实现劳动力的自由流动,加大公共财政支出,通过再分配实现社会公平。     

Population Growth and Natural‐Resource Scarcity: Long‐Run Development under Seemingly Unfavorable Conditions

In this paper, I consider an economy that is constrained by the use of natural resources and driven by knowledge accumulation. Resources are essential inputs in all sectors. I show that population growth and poor input substitution are not detrimental but, on the contrary, are even necessary to obtain a sustainable consumption level. I find a general rule to define the conditions for a constant innovation rate. The rule does not apply to capital but to labor growth, which is the crucial input in research. Furthermore, the rule relates to the sectoral structure of the economy, and to demographic transition. The results continue to hold with a backstop technology, and are extended for the case of minimum resource constraints.     

A ray of hope? Another look at the Italian textile industry

Despite increasing competition from newly industrializing countries, Italy’s textile industry has continued to be an important contributor to the domestic economy. Many observers attribute this resilience to the industry’s focus on quality. Here, we take note of that view but also examine production and cost relationships to explore the existence of returns to scale and the interrelationships among inputs to gain additional insights about the future prospects for this industry. The findings are consistent with constant returns to scale and a substitute relationship between all input pairs except for domestic capital and foreign intermediate goods. The results also suggest some increasing flexibility in the labor market, perhaps including informal sector arrangements, greater responsiveness of labor demand to the price of capital, and more international production sharing arrangements. An increasing elasticity over time of the demands for domestic capital and domestic intermediate goods with respect to the price of foreign substitutes was also observed. Since further economies of scale do not exist, maintaining the Italian textile industry’s reputation for outstanding quality will likely be an important survival strategy for some products. For others, production sharing may be necessary to maintain international competitiveness.     

Testing for uniform wage trends in West-Germany: A cohort analysis using quantile regressions for censored data

The rise of unemployment in West Germany is often attributed to an inflexibility of the wage structure in the face of a skill bias in labor demand trends. In addition, there is concern in Germany that during the 70s and 80s unions were pursuing a too egalitarian wage policy. In a cohort analysis, we estimate quantile regressions of wages taking account of the censoring in the data. We present a new framework to describe trends in the entire wage distribution across education and age groups in a parsimonious way. We explore whether wage trends are uniform across cohorts, thus defining a macroeconomic wage trend. Our findings are that wages of workers with intermediate education levels, among them especially those of young workers, deteriorated slightly relative to both high and low education levels. Wage inequality within age-education groups stayed fairly constant. Nevertheless, the German wage structure was fairly stable, especially in international comparison. The results appear consistent with a skill bias in labor demand trends, recognizing that union wages are only likely to be binding floors for low-wage earners.     

The political economy of public education

I study the relationship between income inequality and public spending in education in a voting model. Voters collectively choose the uniform quality level of public education, the amount of a public good, and the tax rate on labor income. Parents can decide to opt-out of the public education system by purchasing private education at the desired quality level, and children’s expected income is assumed to be increasing in the quality of education. I show that higher income inequality is associated with higher governmental spending in education if and only if the expected marginal returns to education are larger for the children of relatively low income parents. In turn, better public education tends to reduce future inequality. These results are consistent with most findings in the empirical literature about public investment in education. Lastly, I show that for other kind of publicly provided goods, such as health care, the relationship with income inequality exhibits an ambiguous or opposite sign.     

我国劳动力质量对数量的抑制效应——基于高校招生和人口出生率的省级空间面板分析

利用中国大陆31个省区2005—2019年空间面板数据,采用变异系数、探索性空间数据分析以及空间计量模型等方法分析高等教育招生和人口出生率的时空演进特征,以及劳动力质量对数量的抑制效应。研究发现:(1)高校招生的峰值省份和人口出生率的谷值省份高度重叠,两者的空间集聚特征和收敛性发展趋势明显。(2)高等教育扩招降低了人口出生率,即劳动力质量对数量存在抑制效应,且在高等教育资源富集的东部和中部地区作用最大。(3)家庭财富对生育率的影响呈现较大的区域差异,在我国整体层面和中西部地区以收入效应为主,在东部地区以替代效应为主。(4)公共教育经费支出有助于提高生育率,城镇化降低了中部和东部的生育率,"一孩""一孩半""二孩"等计划生育政策都对生育率产生抑制。     

Terms-of-trade policy in a model with non-produced means of production

Terms-of-trade policies between agriculture and industry are analysed in a two-sector Sraffian model. If both sectors use only produced means of production and labor, it can be shown that an improvement in agriculture's terms of trade always leads to higher profits in agriculture. However, when non-produced means of production are introduced an exogenous increase in the relative price of agricultural commodities may cause the rate of profit in agriculture to increase, remain constant, or even decrease. Two preconditions are identified for the case in which a favorable movement in agriculture's terms of trade decreases that sector's profit rate. First at least one quality of competitively priced land must be scarce relative to the total output required. Second, the initial, economy-wide rate of profit must be positive. Finally, the effect of an input subsidy used in conjunction with terms-of-trade policy is considered. It is shown that under certain conditions reducing the price of production inputs can also cause profits to fall and rents to rise in agriculture.     

人力资本投入差异与城乡居民收入差距——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

文章基于历年《中国统计年鉴》、《中国人口和就业统计年鉴》和《中国劳动统计年鉴》中的数据,对我国城乡居民收入差距和人力资本投入差异进行分析发现,改革开放以来,我国城乡居民收入差距不断扩大,且近年来仍没有明显下降的趋势,而近十年来我国城乡居民人力资本投入差异已得到很大程度的改观,利用2001-2011年省级面板数据实证分析发现,无论在全国范围内还是在区域范围内,我国城乡居民收入差距均没有随着城乡居民人力资本投入差异的缩小而降低,主要是由教育资源失衡、学历层次不同、劳动力市场扭曲及歧视性择业等因素造成的。因此,在缩小我国城乡居民的人力资本投入差异的同时,要采取相应的措施,如加大对农村地区的教育投入、增加接受高等教育的农村居民比重、统一劳动力市场、引导居民树立正确就业观等,消除其他因素的制约,才能达到缩小城乡居民收入差距的目的。     

GROWTH IN EURO AREA LABOR QUALITY

Composition of the euro area workforce evolves over time and in response to changing labor market conditions. We construct an estimate of growth in euro area labor quality over the period 1983–2005 and show that labor quality has grown on average by 0.47 percent year-on-year. Labor quality growth was significantly higher in the early 1990s than in the 1980s. This strong increase was driven mainly by an increase in the share of those with tertiary education and workers in prime age. Growth in labor quality moderated again toward the end of the 1990s, possibly reflecting the impact of robust employment growth resulting in the entry of workers with lower human capital. The contribution of labor quality to labor productivity has increased over time, accounting for up to one fourth of euro area labor productivity growth. The results point to a lower contribution of total factor productivity to euro area growth.     

农户耕地劳力投入的影响因素——基于湖北农户调查的实证分析

农户对耕地劳动力投入,是影响农业经济增长、粮食安全的重要因素。文章在对湖北省9个县市672个农户进行问卷调查的基础上,采用回归分析方法,对农户耕地劳力投入的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：城市化对农户劳动力投入影响很大,务农人员主要是中老年人,且文化程度整体不高;农户农业生产投入行为是理性的,符合比较利益和风险规避原理;农业机械对劳力具有较强的替代作用,耕地经营规模对农户耕地劳力投入也有较大的影响。     

Earnings functions: Testing for the demand side

To analyze labor market phenomena, one may simultaneously grade workers (by education) and jobs (by level of difficulty and complexity). Human capital theory predicts earnings based on only worker quality. Thurow's version of a segmented labor market theory predicts that only the job level is relevant, and the assignment theory predicts that both variables are relevant. Using three different data sets for The Netherlands, testing demonstrates convincingly the superiority of the assignment theory.