房价高 高处不胜寒

"安得广厦千万间",谁住?"大庇天下寒士",谁掏钱?自己掏——停止福利分房后的必然。但是房价高,商品房"高处不胜寒"。百姓要圆住房梦,要把房价降到一户人年收入的4—6倍。同时,高、中、低档商品住房应有合理的比例,让高、中、低收入者各得其所。如何形成这样一种良好局面,首先要靠政府总结经验教训,制订出适应实际情况的规则。     

信息直通车之地方经纬

北京尚无计划公开房价成本清单日前,北京市国土资源局有关负责人对媒体表示,现在北京市国土局还没有接到上级部门要求公开房价成本清单的红头文件,目前市国土局也还没有把公开房价成本清单提到议事日程上来。但就政务公开而言,北京市国土资源局已经开始着手做这方面工作了。据介绍,房价成本大致计算主要由土地成本、建安成本、其他税费等三大块组成,虽然简单,但目前北京有四千多家开发商,每一个开发商的楼盘开发成本不一样,真正公开房价的成本清单,就工作量来说是非常大的,并且需要足够的网络资源支持。另外,这位人士认为将来一旦有红头文件…     

房地产企业成本控制的几点思考

近年来，随着我国GDP的不断增长，作为具有牵动作用的房地产业得到了较快的发展，房价快速上涨，百姓的购房需求不断增加，为此也引起了社会的普遍关注，政府也相继出台了，一系列的调控房价政策，随之而来的是房地产业成本急速上升。笔者曾对近百名的房地产高层或高管进行问卷调查，有48％的人认为，最大的压力来自于成本。因此，加强房地产业的成本控制是提高房地产商经济效益的关键因素，值得给予必要的思考。     

房价挑动中国神经

中国人的神经备受高企的房价困扰,对于每一个关于房价的话题,数亿准目标人群无不蜂拥关注。而中国的房地产市场是否需要继续下调价格？要降到什么水平才算合理？又该采取怎样的降价方式？降价对百姓、市场、政府来说意味着什么？     

简述房地产开发成本控制方式

为了稳定社会经济秩序,维护百姓利益,国家采取了一系列政策控制房价,在这种形势下,房地产企业为了争取尽可能多的利润率,成本环节必然成为企业关注的对象,制定并采取有效的控制措施成为当下房地产企业管理者工作的重中之重.本文根据本人在实际工作中的经验,着重从对成本有着较大影响的几个环节浅谈成本控制的一些方法和措施.     

电视剧《蜗居》引起的经济学思考

高额房价和百姓收入缓慢增长的矛盾一直是社会广泛关注的话题,本文拟通过电视剧《蜗居》揭示的一些社会现象,结合经济学的知识来分析高额房价形成的原因和消费信用的隐患,并通过对社会分配不公的思考,以期找到解决问题的方法使百姓安居乐业、社会和谐稳定。     

物业税开征对房地产价格的影响分析

物业税的开征可以在房子的持有环节上增加持有成本抑制商品房的投机性需求,所以从物业税的特点和我国经济形势平稳持续发展来看,不应把物业税作为降低房价的"撒手锏",而应把它看做是一种稳定房价、促进市场合理发展的基础税种。     

限房价竞地价将是一个笑话

土地成本大幅增加、税收大幅增加、人工成本大幅增高、建安成本大幅增加……但却想让房价降下来!对于这个政策来说,最直接的不是限房价竞地价,你把地价降下来不就行了!近日有消息称:为进一步限制北京普通商品房的销售价格,北京市拟从土地出让环节入手,从源头把控。京版"国     

房价涨了我们该思考什么？

房价上涨牵动百姓的心。有关分析认为,房价上涨的最根本原因是供需矛盾、产业结构和体制矛盾。长期以来低投入、低价位的商品房比重过低;非住宅商品房比重过大。豪华住宅等在住宅中的比重过高,推动个人住房贷款需求膨胀。房价持续大幅攀升会引发多种不利的影响:容易导致房价“大落”,殃及经济发展。在房价经过一路上涨之后,各方人士该冷静思考一番了。     

论中国经济发展的未来挑战及破解之路——以高房价为视角

房地产行业作为中国经济的支柱产业,是中国政府和百姓的关注话题。房价要与国家经济发展和收入水平相适应,高房价会对国家和社会带来冲击。本文分析了高房价产生的原因,危害以及解决办法,希望中国经济能够持续健康发展。     

Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR

This paper empirically assesses the prospects for house price spillovers in the euro area, where co-movement in house prices across countries may be particularly relevant given a general trend with monetary union toward increasing linkages in trade, financial markets, and general economic conditions. A global VAR is estimated for three housing demand variables (real house prices, real per capita income, and the cost of borrowing, captured by a real long-term interest rate) on the basis of quarterly data for 7 euro area countries (Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands), which together comprise nearly 90% of euro area GDP, over the period 1971–2009. The results suggest limited house price spillovers in the euro area, albeit with evidence of some overshooting in the first year after the shock, followed by a long run aggregate euro area impact of country-specific changes in real house prices related in part to the country’s economic weight. This contrasts with the impacts of a shock to domestic long-term interest rates, causing a permanent shift in house prices after 2–3 years. Underlying this aggregate development are rather heterogeneous house price spillovers at the country level, with a strong importance for weights – either economic or geographic – in governing their general magnitude. More generally, the impact of financing costs on house prices appears to have grown though time.     

Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the US, using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and real GDP per capita, covering the period 1963:Q1 to 2012:Q2. The full-sample bootstrap non-Granger causality test result suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality running from the real house price index to real GDP per capita. A wide variety of tests of parameter constancy used to examine the stability of the estimated vector autoregressive models indicate short- and long-run instability. This suggests that we cannot rely on the full-sample causality tests and, hence, this warrants a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to examine the causal relationship between these two variables. Using a rolling window size of 28 quarters, we find that while causality from the real house price to real GDP per capita occurs frequently, significant, but less frequent, evidence of real GDP per capita causing the real house price also occurs. These results imply that while the real house price leads real GDP per capita, in general (both during expansions and recessions), significant feedbacks also exist from real GDP per capita to the real house price.     

Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis

This paper analyzes the role of stochastic uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production and provide estimates of the time-series properties of risk shocks by using firm level productivity data. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for understanding housing price movements. Specifically, the model can match the volatility of housing prices observed in the data. It is also demonstrated that adjustment costs are important in replicating the contemporaneous correlation of housing prices with GDP and residential investment. Critically, bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices and are an important determinant of house price volatility. However, in comparison to housing demand shocks, risk shocks have low explanatory power for real quantities.     

基于WebGIS的基准房价信息发布系统设计

基准房价是指以宗地为单位、同种用地类型的房地产单位面积的市场特征价格，构建基准房价的目的在于全面、及时、定量、准确地披露房地产价格体系。基准房价的研究可以为政府制定政策性住房售价、租金标准、征地拆迁补偿标准、房地产税费征收等提供参考依据，同时也可以为普通民众的房地产消费提供价格指导。鉴于基准房价研究的重要意义，在总结国内外基准房价概念、内涵、特点及其信息发布相关理论和技术现状的基础上，设计实现了一个基于WebGIS技术基准房价信息发布系统，经过试运行，用户可以通过该系统快速准确地查询研究区域内的基准房价及其相对应的空间信息。     

中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年,中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议,其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象,借助SPSS16.0和Eview5.0,采用实证研究方法,对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析,揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系,以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况,为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。     

中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年,中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议,其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象,借助SPSS16．0和Eview5．0,采用实证研究方法,对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析,揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系,以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况,为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。     

Housing prices in Metropolitan Toronto: An empirical analysis

This paper examines short-run fluctuations in real house prices in Metropolitan Toronto. We hypothesize that the average time that a house has been on the market before it is sold provides information on the expectation of future movements in real house prices. The paper combines the use of cross spectral analysis (in the frequency domain) with regression analysis (in the time domain) to examine the relationship between monthly real house prices and the average waiting times. In particular, we use a Hannan estimator to form a distributed lag function from the spectral analysis and use these results as an input to the regression model. The empirical findings support our use of waiting times as a proxy of future real house price movements.     

Permanent and transitory shocks in owner-occupied housing: A common trend model of price dynamics

Significant fluctuations in house prices have received considerable attention in recent years. An understanding of the forces underlying the departure from fundamental values is important in explaining the mechanisms underlying housing market performance and predicting potential house price changes in the future. This study constitutes the first use of a common trend (CT) model to analyze private house prices in the Swedish market. We employ a cointegration system to analyze the macro variables of consumption expenditure per capita, user costs and house prices. We decompose shocks into those resulting from fundamental variables, specified in this research as income and the interest rate, and those resulting from cyclical variables. The results indicate that interest rates play a dominant role in explaining house price swings, and are also significant in determining user costs for households in Sweden. Transitory shocks are found to have little explanatory power for house prices and user costs in the long run. A number of tests have been performed to verify the robustness of the specification and results.     

School Quality and Real House Prices: Inter- and Intrametropolitan Effects

This study focuses on explaining variations in real constant-quality house prices in jurisdictions located in multiple MSAs. Using a hedonic house price framework, we test competing theories of house price determination. Using two variants of the random coefficients model, we find that public school quality has a very large impact on real constant-quality house prices. Our results suggest that capitalization of school quality differences occurs on a per lot basis rather than per square foot of land. Also important to the explanation of variations in house prices are variables derived from urban theory, such as distance to the CBD, and from the amenity literature, such as a community's crime rate, arts, and recreational opportunities     

House Prices, Housing Investment and Demography Forecasts from the LBS/Abbey National Model of the UK Housing Market

A new housing sector has been incorporated into the London Business School model. This article outlines the new housing model, summarizes the research which has gone into its construction, and presents a forecast of the UK housing market. Using the new housing model, we forecast a moderate recovery in the housing market in the later part of 1991 and 1992. This recovery is however short-lived and does not result in such high rates of house price increase as previous house price booms (Chart 1).
Cuts in interest rates following entry to the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS prompt a recovery in house prices from the middle of 1991. House price inflation then peaks with an increase in average UK house prices in 1992 of 11 per cent over the previous year. Increases in real personal disposable income are modest, by the standards of the 1980s, and for this reason the recovery does not develop the momentum of previous house price booms. House price inflation moderates again in 1993 falling back to around 7 per cent. Housing starts and housing investment recover only slightly from their present depressed levels.
the recovery in house prices is weaker than that foreseen in our April Forecast Release. This is because real personal disposable income is now forecast to grow more slowly during 1991. Sterling's membership of the ERM is followed by a fall in interest rates, but it is the timing of interest rate cuts rather than their magnitude which differs from the earlier forecast. The changed profile of interest rates has altered the house price forecast only marginally.