Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors

This paper considers estimation and inference in linear panel regression models with lagged dependent variables and/or other weakly exogenous regressors when N (the cross‐section dimension) is large relative to T (the time series dimension). It allows for fixed and time effects (FE‐TE) and derives a general formula for the bias of the FE‐TE estimator which generalizes the well‐known Nickell bias formula derived for the pure autoregressive dynamic panel data models. It shows that in the presence of weakly exogenous regressors inference based on the FE‐TE estimator will result in size distortions unless N/T is sufficiently small. To deal with the bias and size distortion of the FE‐TE estimator the use of a half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is considered and its asymptotic distribution is derived. It is shown that the bias of the half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is of order T^?2, and for valid inference it is only required that N/T³→0, as N,T→∞ jointly. Extension to unbalanced panel data models is also provided. The theoretical results are illustrated with Monte Carlo evidence. It is shown that the FE‐TE estimator can suffer from large size distortions when N>T, with the half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator showing little size distortions. The use of half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is illustrated with two empirical applications from the literature.     

Estimating dynamic panel data discrete choice models with fixed effects

This paper considers the estimation of dynamic binary choice panel data models with fixed effects. It is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimator (MMLE) used in this paper reduces the order of the bias in the maximum likelihood estimator from O(T^-1) to O(T^-2), without increasing the asymptotic variance. No orthogonal reparametrization is needed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate its performance in finite samples where T is not large. In probit and logit models containing lags of the endogenous variable and exogenous variables, the estimator is found to have a small bias in a panel with eight periods. A distinctive advantage of the MMLE is its general applicability. Estimation and relevance of different policy parameters of interest in this kind of models are also addressed.     

On the accuracy of bootstrap confidence intervals for efficiency levels in stochastic frontier models with panel data

We study the construction of confidence intervals for efficiency levels of individual firms in stochastic frontier models with panel data. The focus is on bootstrapping and related methods. We start with a survey of various versions of the bootstrap. We also propose a simple parametric alternative in which one acts as if the␣identity of the best firm is known. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the parametric method works better than the␣percentile bootstrap, but not as well as bootstrap methods that make bias corrections. All of these methods are valid␣only for large time-series sample size (T), and correspondingly none of the methods yields very accurate confidence intervals except when T is large enough that the identity of the best firm is clear. We also present empirical results for two well-known data sets.      

An algorithm for panel ANOVA with grouped data

In this paper, we present an algorithm suitable for analysing the variance of panel data when some observations are either given in grouped form or are missed. The analysis is carried out from the perspective of ANOVA panel data models with general errors. The classification intervals of the grouped observations may vary from one to another, thus the missing observations are in fact a particular case of grouping. The proposed Algorithm (1) estimates the parameters of the panel data models; (2) evaluates the covariance matrices of the asymptotic distribution of the time-dependent parameters assuming that the number of time periods, T, is fixed and the number of individuals, N, tends to infinity and similarly, of the individual parameters when T → ∞ and N is fixed; and, finally, (3) uses these asymptotic covariance matrix estimations to analyse the variance of the panel data.     

On bootstrapping panel factor series

This paper studies the asymptotic validity of sieve bootstrap for nonstationary panel factor series. Two main results are shown. Firstly, a bootstrap Invariance Principle is derived pointwise in i$i$, obtaining an upper bound for the order of truncation of the AR polynomial that depends on n$n$ and T$T$. Consistent estimation of the long run variances is also studied for (n,T)→∞$(n,T)\to \infty$. Secondly, joint bootstrap asymptotics is also studied, investigating the conditions under which the bootstrap is valid. In particular, the extent of cross sectional dependence which can be allowed for is investigated. Whilst we show that, for general forms of cross dependence, consistent estimation of the long run variance (and therefore validity of the bootstrap) is fraught with difficulties, however we show that “one-cross-sectional-unit-at-a-time” resampling schemes yield valid bootstrap based inference under weak forms of cross-sectional dependence.     

Almost unbiased estimation in multiplicative models

In the lognormal linear models the estimation of constant term presents problems. In this paper we use weighted jackknife procedure (suggested by Hinkley 1977) for reducing the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator. The resulting estimator is unbiased upto order (1/T),T being the number of observations, and has the same MSE as that of the MLE to the same order of approximation; moreover, being the jackknife estimator it enjoys all the desirable large sample properties like any other jackknife estimator. The research of this author is partially supported through a research grant from NSERC of Canada.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for discrete models based on the integrated distribution function

This paper presents a new widely applicable omnibus test for discrete distributions which is based on the difference between the integrated distribution function Ψ(t)=∫_t ^∞ (1−F(x))dx and its empirical counterpart. A bootstrap version of the test for common lattice models has accurate error rates even for small samples and exhibits high power with respect to competitive procedures over a large range of alternatives. Received: July 1998     

On bootstrapping the mode in the nonparametric regression model with random design

In the nonparametric regression model with random design and based on i.i.d. pairs of observations (X _i, Y _i), where the regression function m is given by m(x)=?(Y _i|X _i=x), estimation of the location θ (mode) of a unique maximum of m by the location of a maximum of the Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator for the curve m is considered. In order to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for θ, the suitably normalized distribution of is bootstrapped in two ways: we present a paired bootstrap (PB) where resampling is done from the empirical distribution of the pairs of observations and a smoothed paired bootstrap (SPB) where the bootstrap variables are generated from a smooth bivariate density based on the pairs of observations. While the PB requires only relatively small computational effort when carried out in practice, it is shown to work only in the case of vanishing asymptotic bias, i.e. of “undersmoothing” when compared to optimal smoothing for mode estimation. On the other hand, the SPB, although causing more intricate computations, is able to capture the correct amount of bias if the pilot estimator for m oversmoothes. Received: May 2000     

Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency

We apply bootstrap methodology to unit root tests for dependent panels with N cross-sectional units and T time series observations. More specifically, we let each panel be driven by a general linear process which may be different across cross-sectional units, and approximate it by a finite order autoregressive integrated process of order increasing with T. As we allow the dependency among the innovations generating the individual series, we construct our unit root tests from the estimation of the system of the entire N cross-sectional units. The limit distributions of the tests are derived by passing T to infinity, with N fixed. We then apply bootstrap method to the approximated autoregressions to obtain critical values for the panel unit root tests, and establish the asymptotic validity of such bootstrap panel unit root tests under general conditions. The proposed bootstrap tests are indeed quite general covering a wide class of panel models. They in particular allow for very general dynamic structures which may vary across individual units, and more importantly for the presence of arbitrary cross-sectional dependency. The finite sample performance of the bootstrap tests is examined via simulations, and compared to that of commonly used panel unit root tests. We find that our bootstrap tests perform relatively well, especially when N is small.     

Characterization of the multivariate normal distribution by conditional normal distributions

Summary LetX andY be two random vectors with values in ℝ ^k and ℝ∝, respectively. IfZ=(X ^T,Y ^T) ^T is multivariate normal thenX givenY=y andY givenX=x are (multivariate) normal; the converse is wrong. In this paper simple additional conditions are stated such that the converse is true, too. Furthermore, the case is treated that the random vectorZ=(X ₁ ^T , …,X _t ^T ) ^T is splitted intot≥3 partsX ₁, …,X _t.     

A minimal characterization of the covariance matrix

Summary LetX be ak-dimensional random vector with mean vectorμ and non-singular covariance matrix Σ. We show that among all pairs (a, Δ),a ∈ IR ^k , Δ ∈ IR ^k×k positive definite and symmetric andE(X−a)′ Δ⁻¹(X−a)=k, (μ, Σ) is the unique pair which minimizes det Δ. This motivates certain robust estimators of location and scale. Research supported by the Nuffield Foundation.     

A consistent test for multivariate normality based on the empirical characteristic function

LetX ₁,X ₂, …,X _n be independent identically distributed random vectors in IR ^d ,d ⩾ 1, with sample mean and sample covariance matrixS _n. We present a practicable and consistent test for the composite hypothesisH _d: the law ofX ₁ is a non-degenerate normal distribution, based on a weighted integral of the squared modulus of the difference between the empirical characteristic function of the residualsS _n ^−1/2 (X _j − ) and its pointwise limit exp (−1/2|t|²) underH _d. The limiting null distribution of the test statistic is obtained, and a table with critical values for various choices ofn andd based on extensive simulations is supplied.     

Bias Reduction in Dynamic Panel Data Models by Common Recursive Mean Adjustment*

The within‐group estimator (same as the least squares dummy variable estimator) of the dominant root in dynamic panel regression is known to be biased downwards. This article studies recursive mean adjustment (RMA) as a strategy to reduce this bias for AR(p) processes that may exhibit cross‐sectional dependence. Asymptotic properties for N,T→∞ jointly are developed. When ( log ²T)(N/T)→ζ, where ζ is a non‐zero constant, the estimator exhibits nearly negligible inconsistency. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the RMA estimator performs well in terms of reducing bias, variance and mean square error both when error terms are cross‐sectionally independent and when they are not. RMA dominates comparable estimators when T is small and/or when the underlying process is persistent.     

A method to obtain new copulas from a given one

Given a strictly increasing continuous function φ from [0, 1] to [0, 1] and its pseudo-inverse φ^[−1], conditions that φ must satisfy for C_φ(x₁, . . . ,x_n)=φ^[−1](C(φ(x₁), . . . ,φ(x_n))) to be a copula for any copula C are studied. Some basic properties of the copulas obtained in this way are analyzed and several examples of generator functions φ that can be used to construct copulas C_φ are presented. In this manner, a method to obtain from a given copula C a variety of new copulas is provided. This method generalizes that used to construct Archimedean copulas in which the original copula C is the product copula, and it is related with mixtures     

A note on the maximum deviation of the scale-contaminated normal to the best normal distribution

In this paper we consider the case of the scale-contaminated normal (mixture of two normals with equal mean components but different component variances: (1−p)N(μ,σ²)+pN(μ,τ²) with σ and τ being non-negative and 0≤p≤1). Here is the scale error and p denotes the amount with which this error occurs. It's maximum deviation to the best normal distribution is studied and shown to be montone increasing with increasing scale error. A closed-form expression is derived for the proportion which maximizes the maximum deviation of the mixture of normals to the best normal distribution. Implications to power studies of tests for normality are pointed out. Received May 2001     

A bound on the expected overshoot for some concave boundaries

LetX ₁,X ₂,… be i.i.d. with finite meanμ>0,S _n =X ₁+…+X _n . Forf(n)=n ^β ,c>0 we consider the stopping timesT _c =inf{n:S _n >c+f(n)} with overshootR _c =S _{T c} −(c+f(T _c )). For 0<β<1 we give a bound for sup _c≥0 ER _c in the spirit of Lorden’s well-known inequality forf=0.     

Choice of optimal initial designs in sequential experiments

Combined-optimal designs (Li and Lin, 2003) are obviously the best choices for the initial designs if we partition the experiment into two parts with equal size to obtain some information about the process, especially for the case not considering the blocking factor. In this paper, the definition of combined-optimal design is extended to the case when blocking factor is significant, and this new class of designs is called blocked combined-optimal designs. Some general results are obtained which relate 2^k−p_III initial designs with their complementary designs when , where n=2^k−p. By applying these results, we are able to characterize 2^k−p_III combined-optimal designs or blocked combined-optimal designs in terms of their complementary designs. It is also proved that both 2^k−p_III combined-optimal and blocked combined-optimal designs are not minimum aberration designs when and n−1−k > 2. And some combined-optimal and blocked combined-optimal designs with 16 and 32 runs are constructed for illustration. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 62K15, 62K05     

Two families of kurtosis measures

Two families of kurtosis measures are defined as K ₁(b)=E[ab ^−|z|] and K ₂(b)=E[a(1−|z|^b)] where z denotes the standardized variable and a is a normalizing constant chosen such that the kurtosis is equal to 3 for normal distributions. K ₂(b) is an extension of Stavig's robust kurtosis. As with Pearson's measure of kurtosis β₂=E[z ⁴], both measures are expected values of continuous functions of z that are even, convex or linear and strictly monotonic in ℜ⁻ and in ℜ⁺. In contrast to β₂, our proposed kurtosis measures give more importance to the central part of the distribution instead of the tails. Tests of normality based on these new measures are more sensitive with respect to the peak of the distribution. K ₁(b) and K ₂(b) satisfy Van Zwet's ordering and correlate highly with other kurtosis measures such as L-kurtosis and quantile kurtosis. RID="*" ID="*"  The authors thank the referees for their insightful comments that significantly improved the clarity of the article.     

Income convergence within the MENA countries: A panel unit root approach

This article aims at testing the convergence hypothesis in MENA region using new tests of a unit root in panel data. Evans and Karras [Evans P., & Karras G. (1996). Convergence revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 249–265] and Bernard and Jones [Bernard A., & Jones C. I. (1996). Productivity across industries and countries: Time series theory and evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 135–146] recommend this technique to evaluate the income convergence hypothesis. According to them it avoids econometric problems of the cross-countries growth regressions testing convergence and sample bias of the multivariate cointegration techniques. We test for both absolute and the conditional convergence with panel unit root tests using the Summers and Heston's data 5.6 and 6.1 on the periods of 1960 to 1990 and from 1960 to 2000. The absolute convergence hypothesis use panel unit roots test with no fixed individual effects. The catching-up hypothesis is not rejected for most groups of countries of the region during both periods. If we allow a break in the unit root tests, the hypothesis is not rejected for more groups. The conditional convergence requires panel unit root tests with fixed individual effects. Again, during the whole periods, the conditional convergence is not rejected for the major part of the remaining groups of MENA countries.     

A note on generalized wald’s method

Let {v _n(θ)} be a sequence of statistics such that whenθ =θ ₀,v _n(θ ₀) N _p(0,Σ), whereΣ is of rankp andθ εR ^d. Suppose that underθ =θ ₀, {Σ _n} is a sequence of consistent estimators ofΣ. Wald (1943) shows thatv _n ^T (θ ₀)Σ _n ⁻¹ v _n(θ ₀) x ²(p). It often happens thatv _n(θ ₀) N _p(0,Σ) holds butΣ is singular. Moore (1977) states that under certain assumptionsv _n ^T (θ ₀)Σ _n ⁻ v _n(θ ₀) x ²(k), wherek = rank (Σ) andΣ _n ⁻ is a generalized inverse ofΣ _n. However, Moore’s result as stated is incorrect. It needs the additional assumption that rank (Σ _n) =k forn sufficiently large. In this article, we show that Moore’s result (as corrected) holds under somewhat different, but easier to verify, assumptions. Research partly supported by the U.S. Army Research Office through the Mathematical Sciences Institute at Cornell University.