THE TREATMENT OF EDUCATION IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING1

It is argued that the conventions of an accounting system, such as the S.N.A., are a matter of convenience. The treatment of education as a current expenditure, instead of as a form of capital formation, derives from the Keynesian system, and is not appropriate for dynamic problems of developing countries, where weaknesses in education are often the main “bottleneck” in the process of development. In such countries, expenditure on education clearly yields its benefits mainly in the longer run. To treat this as a consumption item biases policy in the direction of using financial resources for fixed capital rather than human investment, and may cause aid agencies to penalize countries which expand their educational systems. A similar problem arises on other expenditures such as health, but the case for treating them as investment is not so strong. To treat educational expenditure as part of capital formation logically requires two major changes. First education needs to be removed from private and public consumption, and for this purpose a fairly broad definition of what is education should be used. Secondly, the stock of educational capital should be valued. The valuation problems are, however, severe. Variations in cost components make historic cost of little value as a yardstick, and calculations of future returns are fraught with difficulties. Using replacement costs, which seems the best method, involves the construction of education profiles in physical terms which can then be valued by present or by standardised costs. The depreciation of human capital through mortality and retirement can be allowed for by applying national average rates to these physical profiles. Switching educational expenditure from current to capital accounts involves no serious practical problem. However, although there should logically be an allowance for depreciation on human capital, this is not recommended; single monetary measures of educational stock are not very meaningful, and this would involve changing the definition of “net” aggregates. Development of statistics of educational stocks and flows in physical terms—the beginnings of “demographic accounting” fully integrated with the rest of national accounting—is strongly advocated.     

A REVIEW OF SELECTED ASPECTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE LIGHT OF COUNTRIES’ EXPERIENCES*

A review of the United Nations System of National Accounts and its implementation by countries is presently being conducted at the United Nations Statistical Office. This article presents a personal and selective account by the author of the results of that review and its consequences for the present structure of the SNA. Information is included on the level of response by countries for the tables of the SNA national accounts questionnaire. It shows that this response is at present sparce, except for the tables on GDP by end use, cost structure and kind of economic activity. On the more detailed level the feasibility of introducing integrated sector accounts into the system has been examined and different approaches compared. Country practices suggest that one way of facilitating the introduction of such accounts would be to eliminate one essential feature of the dual classification of the SNA, i.e., the distinction between quasi-corporate and other unincorporated enterprises. Other modifications of the SNA structure implied below are the introduction on a limited scale of articulation of transactions, the inclusion of additional aggregate income and balancing items, a reallocation of data between the main accounts and the supporting tables, and a better integration of the SNA matrix with the accounts and tables of the system. A reduction of the present number of independent classifications in the SNA is suggested, based on links between categories of different classifications that are assumed in country responses to the questionnaire. A suggestion is made for a uniform valuation of goods and services and income flows, to replace the present complex valuation guidelines on approximate basic and factor values and producers’ prices.     

PROBLEMS OF DETERMINING AND MEASURING THE RELIABILITY OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Most developing countries have compiled national accounts on a regular basis only for the last few years. It has not yet been possible for them to collect many of the statistics necessary to obtain good coverage of their economic activities by methods which would generally be accepted as reliable. Consequently the checks on reliability imposed by the framework of the national accounts are often absent, and the accounts prepared contain many estimates of doubtful quality. These doubts can usually only be removed as statistics collected by better methods become available. This is proving to be a slow process, partly because of the shortage of trained statistical staff and the competing demands of social and demographic statistics and partly because of the inherent difficulties in collecting good statistics from small businesses and traditional households. The need to define traditional households as producers as well as consumers leads to our demanding extra information from this difficult sector. In addition it is often difficult for the national accounts statistician, and even more so for the user, to find out in the time available exactly how some of the statistics with which he is presented were obtained. When this cannot be done it is impossible to assess their reliability. Thus assessing the overall reliability of national accounts in developing countries for even a limited range of uses is at present largely a matter of personal judgment. The information necessary to make more objective assessments rarely exists and hence the problems which developed countries face in using such information are not yet within the experience of most developing countries.     

NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY*

The United Nations' newly completed study of purchasing power parities covering 34 countries varied in region, income level, and form of economic organization shows the systematic differences between the usual view of the structure of the world economy arising out of international comparisons based upon foreign exchange rate conversions and the structure one sees when actual prices are available. The real per capita GDP of developing countries is understated relative to developed countries when exchange rates are used in converting countries' national income accounts to a common currency, with the degree of understatement for any two countries being inversely related to the per capita income difference between them. The reason for this is that relative prices in the non-traded goods sector are lower relative to traded goods prices in low income countries. The systematic pattern observed in the 1975 data of the 34 countries has been extrapolated over time and space to get estimates of GDP for other years and countries. In the absence of detailed price data, the real shares of final expenditures devoted to particular components of the total can only be estimated as the proportion of own currency total expenditure devoted to the components. The observed differences in the pattern of prices of poor countries relative to rich for different components makes this clearly wrong for international comparisons, and in systematic ways. For example, (i) the relative price of services compared with commodities in poor countries is lower than in rich; so the apparent tendency of the share of services to rise as a country's income rises disappears when real quantities are considered; similarly, (ii) the relative price of capital goods is greater in poor countries compared with rich ones, so the difference in investment ratios out of GDP between rich and poor countries is understated.     

THE TREATMENT OF STOCK APPRECIATION IN THE MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME*

In the latest official national income publication the Australian Commonwealth Statistician has altered the treatment of stock appreciation in the measurement of national income at current prices. Previously, stock appreciation had been included in both national expenditure and national product. Now the amount of stock appreciation (the difference between the change in the value of stocks and the value of the change in stocks) has been deducted from investment in stocks, and consequently national expenditure, and from trading incomes, and consequently national income. The former procedure (including stock appreciation in national expenditure and national product) had been advocated by the present author, when editor of the first official national income publications issued by the Commonwealth Statistician. In this note an attempt is made to set out the reasons for this view. A new approach is also suggested for handling the item of stock appreciation in national income accounts, which does not rest on the assumption that stock appreciation is a capital gain which should be excluded from trading incomes and national product.     

CURRENT COST ACCOUNTING: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEFINITION AND MEASUREMENT OF CORPORATE INCOME

This paper is in 7 sections. Section 1 gives as background a chronological account of the steps taken in the United Kingdom, from 1974 to late 1977, towards the development of a new system of accounting in company reports which would allow for the effect of changing costs and prices on the measurement of profit and of capital employed in the business. Section 2 discusses the main features of the system, known as current cost accounting, as it is seen in the United Kingdom. Section 3 surveys the relationship between current cost accounting and the national income and expenditure statistics, and the likely implications of the introduction of current cost accounting upon the quality of macro-economic statistics, including estimates of national and sector balance sheets. Section 4 describes some of the problems of implementing current cost accounting, particularly in special situations, and outlines the solutions which were proposed in the "Exposure Draft" published in 1976 by the accountancy profession in the United Kingdom. Section 5 considers the definition of distributable profit in relation to the need to maintain capital, considering the concept of gain, the system of valuing assets and liabilities, and the enterprise's capacity to take on additional debt as a means of financing its assets. Section 6 briefly surveys the implications for taxation, price control and price setting. Section 7 concludes by surveying the scene at the end of 1977 and by looking at likely future developments.     

REINVESTED EARNINGS IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper raises three questions. Firstly, is it warranted that a significant part of primary (property) income is not shown in the national accounts as being distributed to the owners of the assets to which it accrues but ends up as capital gains in the revaluation account? Secondly, why has the SNA chosen not to record reinvested earnings of corporations as flows of property income with the exception of foreign direct investment, and thirdly why the asymmetrical recording of stock investments constituting more than 10 percent of equity capital depending on whether domestic or foreign transactions are concerned? Reinvested earnings on domestic equity investment above 10 percent of a corporation are not recorded as property income in the system. The paper looks at these three questions from the perspective of the analytical uses of national accounts. The consequences for the analysis of income distribution both between nations and within nations are examined.     

Estimates of Capital Stock and Capital/Output Coefficients by Industries: Korea (1953–86)

This paper constructs a polynomial-benchmark model to estimate gross and net capital stocks by explicity estimating implicit retirement rates and depreciation rates. The model is applied to Korean data (1953–86) where such data as national wealth survey, national income accounts and industrial census are available. There alternative series of capital stock estimates are generated and compared with previous estimates. It is shown that the use of a pure perpetual-inventory model or a benchmark-year method alone may introduce a significant bias in the measurement of capital stocks for developing economies.     

Do Borders Matter? Evidence from Japanese Regional Net Capital Flows

Are international borders barriers to capital flows? We use evidence on net capital flows among regions within a country as a benchmark. For this purpose we develop a data set of saving and investment rates of Japanese prefectures. We find that the correlation between saving and investment rates is higher for OECD countries than for Japanese regions in both time‐series and cross‐sectional data. After controlling for factors that are expected to contribute to a positive correlation in the absence of barriers to capital flows, we conclude that primarily long‐term capital flows are hindered by national borders, as reflected in the cross‐sectional evidence.     

THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANALYTICAL TOOL*

The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts. The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.     

Malaria and Economic Development

Malaria tends to have a negative correlation with national income per capita. Many existing studies emphasize how falling rates of malaria can enhance economic development due to the beneficial effect on human capital. This paper emphasizes that causality may also run in the opposite direction, in particular, that higher incomes—arising for reasons having nothing to do with human capital—may allow for increased prevention and treatment of malaria, and therefore contribute to the negative correlation. We analyze the malaria‐income relationship for 100 endemic countries over a 17‐year period using a simultaneous equations model that accounts for reverse causality and incidental associations. For most countries, income growth has been the most important driver of the negative correlation between malaria and income. Although reducing malaria may be its own reward, it takes much more than reductions in malaria to foster development. This holds widely for different samples of countries.     

ACCRUED CAPITAL GAINS, PERSONAL INCOME AND SAVING IN THE UNITED STATES, 1948–1964

Capital gains are an important source of personal income in the United States but they are not included in the national accounts or the official estimate of personal income and saving. Individuals report their realized gains for tax purposes but the economic theorist would include both realized and accrued gains in income. National income theorists continue to debate whether capital gains should be included in income but, because of the many conceptual and statistical problems involved in estimating capital gains, no satisfactory estimates have been developed. Consequently, the debate has stayed mainly at the theoretical level. This paper deals with the methodology of estimating accrued capital gains. A simple analytical model is developed to estimate capital gains from data on market value and net acquisitions of an asset but the model can be adapted to incorporate asset prices directly. It is shown that the methods used for estimating accrued gains in the past are special cases of the model proposed in the paper. The model is then used for estimating gains accruing to individuals in the United States on their holdings of corporate stock, real estate and livestock during 1948–1964.
During this period accrued gains have amounted to roughly five times the realized gains reported for tax purposes; corporate stock and real estate are the most important sources of capital gains and corporate stock accounts for almost two-thirds of all accrued gains. The paper goes on to examine the implications of these estimates for the existing series on personal income and saving in the United States. The inclusion of accrued gains would increase the variance in the official estimates but personal saving is affected more than personal income. The paper concludes with an evaluation of these results and some suggestions for further research.     

Natural resources,education, and economic development

Economic growth since 1965 has varied inversely with the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries. Four main channels of transmission from abundant natural resources to stunted economic development are discussed: (a) the Dutch disease, (b) rent seeking, (c) overconfidence, and (d) neglect of education. Public expenditure on education relative to national income, expected years of schooling for girls, and gross secondary-school enrolment are all shown to be inversely related to the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries. Natural capital appears to crowd out human capital, thereby slowing down the pace of economic development.     

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AND THE SNA

The concept of environmental accounting is developing as the system of national accounts (SNA) is being revised. A basic difference at present is that environmentalists regard natural resources as assets analogous to man-made capital, whereas they are treated as free gifts of nature in the national accounts. In this paper the author examines the consequences for the SNA of adopting the environmentalists approach to capital.     

THE ACCOUNTING TREATMENT OF HUMAN INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL

Defining investment as outlays that increase income- and output-producing capacity, the author presents estimates of human investment in the United States 1929–69, comprising rearing costs, education, training, health, safety and mobility outlays. He develops an economic accounting framework to accommodate human investments and research and development in national and sector capital accounts, with appropriate adjustments to the current accounts to provide consistency. The associated balance sheets and wealth statements are also developed.
The wealth and corresponding income estimates are used to compute rates of return on human, non-human, and total capital. In the business economy the average net rate of return on total capital was 10.6 percent in 1969, compared with 10.0 percent in 1929. The average and marginal rates of return on human capital were generally somewhat higher than on non-human capital throughout the period.     

THE PRESENT STATE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN LATIN AMERICA

This document attempts to give an overall review of the present situation of national accounts in Latin America, and deals essentially with the statistical basis and procedures used in their preparation. The purpose of these comments is to place the main problems common to all countries in order of priority and, in view of the need to advance and in the face of the task of establishing the present SNA, to discuss briefly the main lines which future work might follow. The stage of development so far reached by national accounts in Latin America is unsatisfactory if compared with the former system recommended by the United Nations two decades ago, and their recent evolution indicates that the rate of progress has fallen behind the advances made in the theoretical field in this connexion, and in relation to the increasing requirements of macroeconomic information for economic planning and policy. This whole picture becomes more meaningful if the objectives, structure and content of the present SNA, that has already been in force for five years, are compared with the present state of national accounts estimates in the region, which reveals the long road that lies ahead and the magnitude of the effort required if the present situation is to show a change for the better. Clearly, little progress can be made unless the basic statistics are expanded in scope and improved. This is the crux of the problem, towards which the greatest efforts and resources should primarily be channeled. It is necessary to adopt a critical approach and concerted action with respect to four aspects which characterize the national statistical systems in Latin America:

• (a) organizational problems and the shortage of human and financial resources;
• (b) the lack of co-ordinated programmes of basic statistics;
• (c) the limited use of efficient methods of collecting data; and
• (d) the insufficient recourse to administrative records.

     

SOCIAL PROTECTION ACCOUNTS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The development of social protection accounts is described and the relationship between social security and welfare expenditure (as recorded in social protection accounts) and expenditures in the national accounts is discussed. Proposals are put forward for achieving co-ordination between social protection expenditure and expenditure recorded in the national accounts, and these are illustrated by reference to Irish data. The future development of social protection accounts by the inclusion of fiscal benefits, which are not recorded in the national accounts, is also considered. Finally some references are made to the use of the social protection accounts and the development of data relating o the numbers of persons covered by social protection and the numbers of beneficiaries.