A tariff on a productive factor and import competing supply

A tariff on an imported factor of production such as energy or capital reduces the import as well as output in the general equilibrium of a small open economy. The present paper shows real income may rise, however, due to an increase in the import competing quantity supplied. The present competitive economy produces a single exported output with two factors of production, one purely domestic. The import competing price elasticity, shares of income and output, and factor substitution determine general equilibrium adjustments to a tariff on the imported factor.     

台湾对大陆产品提高关税的理论模型分析——从要素收入分配扭曲效应出发的研究

台湾如果对大陆产品提高关税会扭曲岛内要素收入分配的格局。本文在一个使用两种生产要素资本和劳动并生产两种商品高技术产品和机制品的一般均衡模型中,考察短期内和长期内上述关税提高会对两种要素的收入产生怎么样的影响。本文的理论分析得出的结论是:就劳动的收入工资来说,短期内两个部门的工资都在提高,但长期内未被保护的高技术产品部门的工资反而会降低;就资本的报酬来说,短期内被保护部门机制品的资本报酬有所提高,而没有被保护部门的资本报酬反而会降低。因此,台湾提高进口关税的这种要素收入分配效应,不利于自己优势产业的发展,ECFA的实施有其经济学理念基础。     

Trade liberalization, wage inequality, and endogenously determined nontraded goods

We examine the boundary between traded and nontraded goods as a channel for trade to impact factor prices. In a two-country, two-factor, continuum-good model, tariffs generate a range of nontraded goods. A tariff reduction has a direct effect to expand a country’s import set and an indirect effect through terms of trade to expand its export set. We show that the export expansion can dominate the import expansion, raising the relative demand for the factor intensively used in production. The result is useful in explaining observed rising wage inequality in developing countries following trade liberalization.     

The nonequivalence of tariffs,import quotas,and voluntary export restraints

This paper compares the equilibrium levels of prices, imports, production and consumption under a tariff, an import quota, and a voluntary export restraint when each trade restriction is set so as to lead to the same quantity of imports. Competitive, domestic production monopoly, import monopoly, and export monopoly cases are examined. Voluntary export restraints are shown to have different effects than import quotas or tariffs, especially when some potential exporters remain outside the agreements.     

The role of imports for exporter performance in Peru

Using highly disaggregated firm‐level customs data for imports and exports in Peru over the 2000–12 period, we explore the relationship between imports of intermediate inputs and firm export performance. The evidence shows that greater use, variety and quality of imported intermediate inputs are significantly correlated with higher export levels and growth, greater market diversification and higher export quality at the firm level, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. Exporter–importers exposed to higher tariffs, and non‐tariff measures import less in total and exhibit lower import variety, whereas those using an advance customs clearance procedure designed to facilitate imports exhibit higher imports and a more diversified bundle of inputs.     

Product-level estimation of import demand: Simulating the effects of tariff harmonisation

Developing countries have traditionally used import tariffs to protect infant industries and raise revenues to finance government expenditure plans. This approach, however, has tended to protect inefficient industries and to some extent hindered economic development. A disaggregated import demand model is estimated using monthly observations on 91 of the most frequently imported product items in Barbados. The results are then employed to evaluate the feasibility of harmonising tariff rates to some single rate across product categories. The results suggest that the estimation of aggregate import demand equations is not accepted by the data and therefore could result in misleading inferences. The policy simulation exercise indicates that a single applied tariff at the 30% level would essentially be revenue neutral, while rates above this level would lead to reductions in tax receipts.     

Welfare computations and the optimal staging of tariff reductions in models with adjustment costs

This is an analysis of the second-best problem of choice of tariff level for period two given a positive tariff in period one. The models presented take the allocation of all factors of production except labor as fixed, and allow labor to transfer between industries at a positive cost. The period two tariff may then optimally be set to some positive level. Although these models involve voluntary unemployment, no adjustment to the goods market welfare triangle is necessary to compensate for the adjustment burden in computing the gains from tariff reduction. Lastly, it is shown that a staged reduction of tariffs may be preferred for income distribution reasons to a once-and-for-all reduction.     

对外贸易与劳动收入占比:基于省际工业面板数据的研究

考虑到进口贸易与出口贸易在影响机制上的差异性,本文重点探讨对外贸易开放程度增加在我国工业劳动收入占比下降中所起的作用并区分进口贸易和出口贸易的影响。在控制了劳动收入占比与贸易的联立关系之后,本文发现进口贸易的作用显著为负,出口贸易则表现出弱负向作用。此外,资本增强型技术进步也是我国工业部门劳动要素分配地位弱化的重要原因。     

The biggest losers (and winners) from US trade liberalization

Many development experts worry that continuing reductions of tariff levels in high-income countries will limit trade flows from developing countries that benefit from preferential trade programs because of ‘preference erosion.’ Using a panel of US import data between the years of 1997 and 2005, I find that reductions in preference margins will significantly diminish imports of some products, particularly from lower-middle and low income countries; for example, a 1% reduction in the US tariff on a product that is currently imported duty-free from developing countries will decrease imports of that product from lower-middle income countries by an average of 2.6%. However, many products produced by developing countries fail to qualify for preferential tariffs, thus a gradual reduction in all US tariff rates is expected to have only a modest impact on trade flows from developing countries.     

我国农产品贸易逆差及其形成因素分析

我国农产品在"入世"后的第三年开始出现贸易逆差,本文在分析我国农产品贸易逆差状况的基础上,运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)研究了我国农产品进口波动的形成因素,研究表明进口需求因素是我国农产品进口波动的主要决定因素,结构因素是次重要的影响因素,而农产品竞争力的下降,导致出口额降低,进一步激化了贸易逆差。     

关税减让对我国农产品进口的影响分析

本文运用理论和实证的分析方法,研究了关税减让对我国农产品进口的实际影响。研究结果表明,关税减让与我国农产品的进口之间存在着高度的负相关关系,在影响我国农产品进口行为的诸多因素中,关税起到了主要的作用,但并非唯一因素。同时,关税减让与农产品的进口额、进口结构之间存在密切的关系,最后,还提出几点政策性意见。     

对人民币汇率与广东省进出口额之间关系的实证分析

以国际贸易理论为基础，利用广东省的若干客观经济数据，对人民币汇率与广东省进出口额之间的关系进行实证分析，分别得出人民币汇率与广东省的数量关系、广东省GDP指数与广东省进口额之间的数量关系以及进口关税税率与广东省进口额之间的数量关系。同时，对广东省出口额的预测值与实际值之间的残差做了简要分析。     

Tariffs,the balance of payments,and the demand for money

This paper shows that in a small country the impact of a tariff on the balance of payments depends crutially on the role of relative prices in the demand function for money. An import (export) duty has a perverse impact on the balance of payments if importables (exportables) and money are net complements, but both import and export duties cannot have a perverse impact. A relation between the impact of export and import duties is also derived and is used to reestablish a well-known theorem of Meade on the equivalence of replacing import with export duties and currency depreciation.     

Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Coordinating tariff reduction and domestic tax reform

A key obstacle to fundamental tariff reform in many countries is the revenue loss that it ultimately implies. This paper establishes and explores a simple and practicable strategy for realizing the efficiency gains from tariff reform without reducing public revenue, showing that for a small economy a cut in import duties (respectively, export taxes) combined with a point-for-point increase in domestic consumption taxes (production taxes) increases both welfare and public revenue. Increasingly stringent conditions are required, however, to ensure unambiguously beneficial outcomes from this reform strategy when allowance is made for such important features of reality as non-tradeable final goods and tradeable intermediate inputs.     

我国输入性通胀影响因素的实证研究——基于2005-2011年月度数据的分析

通过分析在当前经济环境下输入性通胀的传导路径,并建立向量自回归VAR模型,通过实证分析系统考察CPI、FDI、进出口差额、国际原油及粮食价格5个变量,结果表明我国目前存在输入性通货膨胀,FDI对我国通胀影响最大,进出口差额、国际大宗商品价格也存在不可忽视的作用,并根据分析结果提出缓解通货膨胀输入性因素影响的政策建议.     

制造业智能化与企业出口产品质量：来自中国的微观证据

随着第四次工业革命的到来，工业机器人的使用成为制造业智能化的重要表征，并对出口贸易产生了愈发深远的影响。研究使用中国2000—2014年行业层面的机器人应用数据、企业层面的机器人进口数据以及中国企业和产品层面的两类微观数据，检验工业机器人对出口产品质量的影响。企业和产品层面的实证结果均表明，工业机器人的使用能够显著促进中国出口产品质量升级。且在考虑工具变量的因果识别、样本选择偏误及多重稳健性检验后依然成立。基于进口工业机器人的准自然实验同样稳健，且促进效应随引进时间递增。机制分析表明，工业机器人主要通过全要素生产率提振、企业创新能力增强和劳动要素升级三个渠道提高企业出口产品质量。     

Protection for sale under monopolistic competition

This paper broadens the protection for sale model of Grossman and Helpman (1994) by incorporating the Krugman-Dixit-Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition, given its importance in explaining the prevalence of intraindustry trade. Several new results arise in this paper. First, the endogenous import tariff will never fall below zero, even in unorganized sectors. Second, the endogenous export policy for organized sectors is not necessarily an export subsidy, and can be an export tax as in unorganized sectors. Third, the level of import protection varies inversely with the degree of import penetration, regardless of whether the sector is organized or not.     

On tariff changes and firm-production evolution: insights from Turkish manufacturing

We contribute to the yet limited evidence on the relationship between trade liberalisation and a firm's product mix and diversification strategies for an emerging economy, Turkey. Lower import barriers foster firms’ specialisation in their core products. A drop in import tariffs, indeed, enhances a firm's propensity to drop fringe varieties and favours production growth of core products. More importantly, it favours firms’ specialisation in more sophisticated goods. Export tariff cuts, instead, by relaxing competitive pressure at home and lowering the cost to export, only reduce the firms’ incentive to innovate.     

国际贸易中出口关税政策调整的效应分析——以俄罗斯提高原木出口关税为例

贸易大国出口关税政策的调整具有福利效应、收入效应和需求弹性效应。本文以俄罗斯原木出口关税政策调整为例,利用经济学理论分析了国际贸易中的准垄断效应和需求弯曲效应,拓展了对国际贸易中效应问题的认识。