Consumer sensitivity to changes in tax policy on consumption of alcohol

Marketers and economists have followed the consumption patterns of alcoholic beverages for many years. Public officials have studied the negative effects of consuming alcohol and have advocated a variety of measures to curtail consumption. Previous studies have also measured the price elasticity. This comparative study is based on a 40‐year analysis, and compares the consumption patterns for beer, spirits and wine in three Nordic countries. Although the cultural context of Denmark, Norway and Sweden are similar, nevertheless significant differences in the patterns of consumption and prices for alcoholic beverages have been evidenced overtime. A comparison of the per capita drinking patterns and the taxation effectiveness are presented. Even though the elasticities varied, the data indicate relative sensitivity to price changes and a decline in spirits consumption as well as switching effects to lower alcohol‐content beverages.     

An exploratory analysis of the determinants of cooperative advertising participation rates

The paper offers an exploratory empirical investigation of the determinants of cooperative advertising participation rates. Using data for 2,286 brands, we examine the relationship of participation rates to national advertising expenditures by brand. We also consider how participation rates vary with average manufacturers’ margins by industry, average retail margins by category, and additional category-level variables. Reflecting the discrete nature of the dependent variable, the analysis employs discrete choice estimation techniques instead of OLS regression. The results reveal a significant quadratic relationship between advertising and participation rates. We interpret this and other significant findings in the context of existing work.     

经济衰退期的广告影响——国外研究述略

在经济衰退期间减少广告支出,将导致在衰退期间及以后的商品销量下降,且不能带来实质性的利润的增加。在经济衰退期间增加广告支出对企业的销量、市场份额、利润及品牌资产都有积极的作用,且其影响远大于经济扩张期和稳定期。增减广告支出的影响时效往往超出衰退期本身。     

Dispelling the Myth

This paper investigates attempts to test the proposition that advertising is an important factor influencing total consumption. It surveys prior work in the area and discusses a more useful definition of the expression ‘changes in advertising cause changes in consumption’ than has been implied in most past tests of the relationship. The criteria for testing causality involve comparing the forecasting ability of a univariate consumption model with a bivariate model of consumption and advertising. These models are built using the powerful Box-Jenkins techniques of time series analysis. A study of the relationship in the United Kingdom is reported covering the period 1969 to 1980. The results do not support the hypothesis that total advertising expenditures alter aggregate consumer behaviour.     

A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change

This paper examines whether there is a long‐run stable equilibrium relationship between advertising and sales across the market segments of the UK car industry over the period 1971–2001. In order to achieve this goal, we allow for structural breaks in the series using cointegration techniques. The results show the existence of long‐run equilibrium relationships in all six market segments, although in four of them the relationship is not stable. In general, one structural change is detected in the late 1970s and another in the early 1990s, coinciding with two economic recessions. When we do not account for structural changes, the estimated long‐run elasticities of advertising on sales are seen to be substantially downwardly biased. Finally, a noticeable increase is observed in long‐run elasticities in most car market segments during the nineties with respect to previous decades.     

A review of the effect of cigarette advertising

Because of the inconsistency in the findings from past decades of research and the lack of consensus regarding the relationship between advertising exposure and cigarette consumption, the large body of extant research on the effectiveness of cigarette advertising has generated equivocal conclusions on this subject. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of cigarette advertising research to determine what impact, if any, cigarette advertising has on cigarette consumption. Unlike previous attempts to synthesize the cigarette advertising literature, this study examined three specific levels of the criterion (i.e., initiation, continuation, and brand behavior) rather than examining only aggregate consumption.     

The commercial contribution of clinical studies for pharmaceutical drugs

Pharmaceutical drugs are rigorously evaluated through clinical studies. The commercial consequences of such clinical studies, both to the promotion for and sales of drugs, are largely under-researched. The present study answers the following research questions: 1) How does the evolution of clinical study outcomes affect product sales? 2) How does the evolution of clinical study outcomes affect a firm's promotion expenditures to physicians and consumers? 3) Is the assessment of the responsiveness of sales to promotion expenditures biased when the analyst omits the role of clinical studies? We summarize a comprehensive body of clinical studies in three metrics: valence, dispersion, and volume. We extend the literature with the following findings. A higher valence and volume of clinical studies (i.e., more positive and larger number of studies) increase sales. A higher valence of clinical studies increases spending on both direct-to-consumer advertising and direct-to-physician promotion. A higher dispersion among clinical studies decreases spending on direct-to-consumer advertising. A higher volume of clinical studies has no effect on direct-to-physician promotion, but decreases direct-to-consumer advertising. Furthermore, the results show that omitting these metrics from a market response model leads to an overestimation of the responsiveness of sales to promotion expenditures.     

The impact of online display advertising and paid search advertising relative to offline advertising on firm performance and firm value

This research examines the impact of online display advertising and paid search advertising relative to offline advertising on firm performance and firm value. Using proprietary data on annualized advertising expenditures for 1651 firms spanning seven years, we document that both display advertising and paid search advertising exhibit positive effects on firm performance (measured by sales) and firm value (measured by Tobin's q). Paid search advertising has a more positive effect on sales than offline advertising, consistent with paid search being closest to the actual purchase decision and having enhanced targeting abilities. Display advertising exhibits a relatively more positive effect on Tobin's q than offline advertising, consistent with its long-term effects. The findings suggest heterogeneous economic benefits across different types of advertising, with direct implications for managers in analyzing advertising effectiveness and external stakeholders in assessing firm performance.     

Examining the Relationship Between Advertising Expenditures and Sales of Quick-Service Restaurants in the United States

The United States fast-food industry represents an important business sector with respect to national and international economics. Due to the low levels of product differentiation and high industry competition, fast-food companies heavily engage in advertising and branding activities. Quick-service restaurants (QSR) are the largest and growing segment of the fast-food industry. The current study examined the longitudinal relationship between advertising expenditures and sales revenues for the QSR industry and leading QSR brands in the United States from 1986 to 2007. Hypotheses were tested using a time-series regression analysis. Managerial, research, and policy implications of the results are provided.     

Are Brand Promotions Just a Zero-Sum Game – or Can They Increase the Size of the Pie?

Packaged goods companies now "spend" more on promotions – special offers, in-store displays and the like – than on media advertising. Until recently, it was generally believed that while promotions benefit individual brands, they usually do not result in an increase in overall category sales. Recent research, however, suggests that promotions can increase total category sales in a wide range of circumstances. This article starts by discussing the relationship between brand promotion and category sales, outlines research to date, and then describes the author's own most recent research on this topic. It concludes by pointing to implications for managers.     

Some Economic Issues and Policy Implications of Studies on the Competitive Effects of Advertising Expenditures

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to examine some of the litersture in Economics that concerns itself with the economics of advertising and to present some of the public policy implications of the results of these studies.

It is found that it is unlikely that advertising expenditures are subject to increasing returns to scale, thus probably do not lead to an increased concentration of industry for this reason.

A study is presented that deals with competition by advertising expenditures and product differentiation in the U.S. cigarette industry. It is found that advertising expenditures. during the 1956–68 period, were not effective in obtaining sales from competitors, although they may have had the affect of inducing new customers to buy the product. The effect of anti-smoking commercials is examined, and it is found that. although they may have had some effect on cigarette smoking. it is doubtful that they provide the impetus for the decreases in advertising expenditures in this particular industry.     

Why do public policy-makers ignore marketing and consumer research? A case study of policy-making for alcohol advertising

Public policy-makers have been noted to sometimes ignore marketing/consumer research, even when the policy issue clearly pertains to consumption markets. We embark to identify factors that may explain policy-makers’ limited attention to marketing/consumer research, especially in cases related to consumer affairs that may have public health implications. Empirically, we focus on policy-making around the advertising of alcohol products. Having been involved in this policy-making process in Finland, we elucidate the case through an introspective narrative. We find that the factors explaining policy-makers’ limited attention to marketing/consumer research range from the decision-making characteristics of policy-makers, through inconsistent definitions for key terminology, to the fear of over-generalizing certain theories of marketing/consumer research. Regarding the latter, a key issue in the present case was that public policy-makers were unconvinced about the generic marketing theory stating that in mature markets, advertising will not increase the total consumption demand of a product category.     

The effectiveness of advertising alcohol products in sports sponsorship

Studies have shown that exposure to sponsorship can influence behavior. However, evidence of the effectiveness of sports advertising and its influence on alcohol consumption is inconclusive. The goal of this research is to examine whether sponsorship by alcohol products receives the same attention as sponsorship by nonalcohol products depending on their congruence and the way they influence the intention to consume. Using sports posters, an experiment was performed to measure attention through eye-tracking. The results show that attention paid to alcohol brands is no greater than the attention paid to incongruent brands and is no different from the attention paid to congruent brands, regardless of gender and sporting discipline. Attention paid to sponsors has no influence on the intention to consume. These results show the need for further research on the effectiveness of sponsorship and its relationship with alcohol consumption.     

Allocating a Promotion Budget between Advertising and Sales Contest Prizes: An Integrated Marketing Communications Perspective

This paper develops and analyzes a normative model for allocating a fixed, short-term promotion budget between product advertising and prizes of a rank-order sales contest for a homogeneous sales force when sales are driven by both personal selling effort and advertising. The model provides insights into how the optimal budget allocations vary with the synergy between advertising and selling effort, sales force size, salesperson risk-tolerance, perceived cost of effort, selling effectiveness and sales response uncertainty. The analysis highlights the need for and value of close coordination between marketing and sales management in designing a promotion program involving both advertising and sales force incentives.     

The Effect of Advertising on the Total Consumption of Alcoholic Drinks in the United Kingdom: Some Econometric Estimates

This paper reports upon an econometric investigation, using aggregate time series data, of the influence of prices, income and advertising upon the demand for alcoholic drink in the UK. The demand for alcoholic drink as a whole is studied initially, and then the analysis is disaggregated to the more detailed level of beer, spirits and wine, taken separately. Income appears to have a marked effect on the demand for these products, and price elasticities are in most cases low.

There is no evidence of a link between total advertising and the total consumption of all alcoholic drinks, spirits or wine. For beer, the evidence on the demand—advertising relationship is ambiguous but, for reasons discussed in the paper, there must be considerable doubt that beer advertising has had an expansionary effect on total beer consumption.     

Advertising and National Consumption: A Path Analytic Re-Examination of the Galbraithian Argument

Abstract

A relatively new analytic technique, PATHEVAL, is used to re-examine an old issue, the relationship between advertising and national consumption. Using cross-national annual data collected on 53 nations, the authors find little evidence for Galbraith's view of advertising as a most persuasive force in altering people's spending and savings habits. Four variables are included in the path analytic model: national income, energy use — a proxy for industrial development, disposable income, private final consumption, and national advertising expenditures. In the Galbraithian argument, disposable income and industrial development predict to advertising, which leads to consumption. The contentions of Galbraith's critics are supported by the analysis: income appears to lead to consumption, which in turn, leads to advertising.     

Incorporating long-term effects in determining the effectiveness of different types of online advertising

Although online advertising has become a full member of the marketing mix and is still growing in importance, studies of long-term, or lagged, advertising effects have generally either neglected online advertising channels or have treated online advertising as one homogeneous block. We analyze the short- and long-term effectiveness of different types of online advertising channels by incorporating separate time lags for each advertising channel. We look at the sales effect of email, banner, and price comparison advertising (PCA) using a sample of 2.8 million purchases and more than 1.1 million individual costumers aggregated to 365 days. Our analysis shows that email advertising has the longest effect, followed by banner advertising and PCA. We find that the length of the effect does not always go hand in hand with its intensity since, for example, banner advertising lasts longer than PCA but performs worse in terms of actual sales. This research yields important insights for theory and practice since it shows how to model long-term advertising effects and provides meaningful insights for improving the allocation of advertising budgets.     

Cross channel effects of search engine advertising on brick & mortar retail sales: Meta analysis of large scale field experiments on Google.com

We investigate the cross channel effects of search engine advertising on Google.com on sales in brick and mortar retail stores. Obtaining causal and actionable estimates in this context is challenging: Brick and mortar store sales vary widely on a weekly basis; offline media dominate the marketing budget; search advertising and demand are contemporaneously correlated; and estimates have to be credible to overcome agency issues between the online and offline marketing groups. We report on a meta-analysis of a population of 15 independent field experiments, in which 13 well-known U.S. multi-channel retailers spent over $4 Million in incremental search advertising. In test markets category keywords were maintained in positions 1-3 for 76 product categories with no search advertising on these keywords in the control markets. Outcomes measured include sales in the advertised categories, total store sales and Return on Ad Spending. We estimate the average effect of each outcome for this population of experiments using a Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model. The estimates from the HB model provide causal evidence that increasing search engine advertising on broad keywords on Google.com had a positive effect on sales in brick and mortar stores for the advertised categories for this population of retailers. There also was a positive effect on total store sales. Hence the increase in sales in the advertised categories was incremental to the retailer net of any sales borrowed from non-advertised categories. The total store sales increase was a meaningful improvement compared to the baseline sales growth rates. The average Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) is positive, but does not breakeven on average although several retailers achieved or exceeded break-even based only on brick and mortar sales. We examine the robustness of our findings to alternative assumptions about the data specific to this set of experiments. Our estimates suggest online and offline are linked markets, that media planners should account for the offline effects in the planning and execution of search advertising campaigns, and that these effects should be adjusted by category and retailer. Extensive replication and a unique research protocol ensure that our results are general and credible.     

The impact of advertising along the conversion funnel

We assemble a unique data set that combines information on supermarket feature advertising with path-tracking data on consumers’ movement within the store as well as purchase information. Using these novel data, we trace out how advertising affects consumer behavior along the path-to-purchase. We find advertising has no significant effect on the number of consumers visiting the category being advertised. The null effect is precisely estimated. At the upper bound of the confidence interval, a one-standard-deviation shift in advertising increases category traffic by only 1.3%. We do find a significant effect at the lower end of the conversion funnel. A one-standard-deviation change in advertising (evaluated at the point estimate) increases category-level sales by 10%. We further decompose the impact on sales and find the increase is driven by the same number of consumers buying a larger number of products of the same brand. We find no evidence of spillover effects of advertising between categories that are stocked in proximity of each other, nor between different products in the same category. Two mechanisms are consistent with these patterns: consumers retrieve memory of the ad only when interacting with the category or only consumers wanting to purchase the brand choose to consume the ad.