所有制改革与OFDI:中国的证据

所有制改革为中国对外直接投资(OFDI)提供了制度保证,是经济转型过程中促进中国OFDI扩张的一种机制。文章采用2003~2014年187个中国对外直接投资国(地区)的跨国数据,实证研究了所有制改革及其引起的对外直接投资主体多元化对中国OFDI的影响效应。在控制了市场寻求、资源寻求与技术寻求动机以及东道国市场风险和人民币汇率等影响因素后,实证结果表明:所有制改革对OFDI具有显著的正向影响;在对外直接投资主体多元化方面,有限责任公司投资主体占比的增加对OFDI具有显著的正向影响,国有企业与集体企业投资主体占比的增加对OFDI具有显著的负向影响,股份有限公司、股份合作企业、外商投资企业和私营企业投资主体占比的增加对OFDI的影响效应不显著或具有负向影响;进一步考虑东道国异质性的研究发现,金融危机前所有制改革与对外直接投资主体多元化对中国OFDI的影响在发达国家和发展中国家或欠发达国家之间是有差异的,而金融危机后对中国OFDI的影响差异不明显。     

所有制改革与OFDI:中国的证据北大核心CSSCISSCI

所有制改革为中国对外直接投资(OFDI)提供了制度保证,是经济转型过程中促进中国OFDI扩张的一种机制。文章采用2003~2014年187个中国对外直接投资国(地区)的跨国数据,实证研究了所有制改革及其引起的对外直接投资主体多元化对中国OFDI的影响效应。在控制了市场寻求、资源寻求与技术寻求动机以及东道国市场风险和人民币汇率等影响因素后,实证结果表明:所有制改革对OFDI具有显著的正向影响;在对外直接投资主体多元化方面,有限责任公司投资主体占比的增加对OFDI具有显著的正向影响,国有企业与集体企业投资主体占比的增加对OFDI具有显著的负向影响,股份有限公司、股份合作企业、外商投资企业和私营企业投资主体占比的增加对OFDI的影响效应不显著或具有负向影响;进一步考虑东道国异质性的研究发现,金融危机前所有制改革与对外直接投资主体多元化对中国OFDI的影响在发达国家和发展中国家或欠发达国家之间是有差异的,而金融危机后对中国OFDI的影响差异不明显。     

中国OFDI能提升东道国与中国的价值链关联吗？——基于前后向关联视角

中国对外直接投资深刻影响着中国与东道国在国际生产分工中的关联关系。文章基于增加值的双边贸易流分解数据，构建了投资东道国与中国的前后向价值链关联指数，全面考察了东道国与中国的价值链关联特征和中国OFDI对东道国与中国双边价值链关联的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：（1）东道国与中国的价值链关联具有非均衡特征；（2）中国对外直接投资显著提升了东道国同中国的前后向价值链关联，且相对于东道国同中国的前向价值链关联，中国OFDI更能提升东道国同中国的后向价值链关联，该结论具有一定的稳健性；（3）分国家和区域来看，相对于高收入国家和非“一带一路”沿线国家，中国OFDI更能提升中低收入国家和沿线国家与中国的价值链关联；分行业来看，中国OFDI对东道国制造业同中国双边价值链关联的正向促进效应高于服务业，且更能促进东道国技术密集型制造业和服务业同中国的前向价值链关联，以及劳动密集型制造业同中国的后向价值链关联；（4）机制分析发现，中国OFDI能够通过降低贸易成本和提高价值链生产分工效率来提升东道国与中国的前后向价值链关联。研究对中国深入推进“双循环”发展战略，打造以中国为主要参与主体的国际价值链体系具有一定...     

东道国腐败治理、基础设施建设与中国对外直接投资北大核心

中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资平稳增长,设施联通是共建"一带一路"的优先方向,沿线国家腐败治理对于吸引中国OFDI和东道国基础设施均有重要影响。本文拓展了中国OFDI对东道国基础设施的影响机制,分析了东道国腐败治理、中国OFDI对"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施的影响,利用2008-2017年63个"一带一路"国家的面板数据,采用OLS回归和2SLS回归,实证检验了东道国腐败治理程度对其基础设施吸引中国OFDI的影响,结果表明中国OFDI对"一带一路"国家的基础设施存在正向效应,该效应对以人均实际GDP表示的经济发展状况更敏感;东道国腐败治理越好,对其基础设施有正向促进效应,该效应对以GDP增长率表示的经济发展速度更敏感;东道国腐败治理越差,将会降低中国OFDI对其基础设施的正向促进效应。研究结论对发挥中国OFDI在"一带一路"国家的积极影响有一定的指导意义,对推进"一带一路"倡议有重要的政策参考价值。     

东道国疫情与中国对外直接投资区位选择

在剖析东道国疫情影响中国OFDI区位选择机理的基础上，利用跨国疫情链接数据集实证检验东道国疫情对中国OFDI流向的影响，结果显示东道国疫情暴发显著阻碍了中国OFDI的流入，且该结果在多种模型设定及考虑内生性的条件下依然稳健。机制检验表明，疫情主要通过抬高交易成本、增大投资风险及阻滞东道国出口三重机制对中国OFDI区位选择产生负向影响。研究亦证实由疫情引发的OFDI阻碍效应在与疫情自身特质、投资特征及东道国时空分异三者的互动中表现出广泛异质性。     

东道国资本管制与中国对外直接投资:来自上市企业跨国并购的微观证据

文章使用中国2008~2015年上市企业匹配的微观数据,研究了全球金融危机后东道国资本管制对中国企业OFDI二元边际的影响及影响机制。研究发现,东道国资本管制放松可以显著地促进中国企业对外直接投资,主要原因是资本管制放松会降低资本使用成本,方便企业在当地融资,而且这种正向效应主要发生在对外直接投资的扩展边际上。另外,在拥有较高法治和金融发展水平,特别是政府治理水平的东道国,资本管制放松对中国企业的吸引力更大。文章的研究为中国企业"走出去"的区位选择提供了经验证据,融资约束紧的企业更适合选择到资本管制较轻的国家或地区投资。     

异质性国际投资争端与中国对外直接投资

已有理论认为投资者—东道国投资争端将导致外商直接投资流入下降,但未考虑国际投资争端适用条约和条款的异质性特征.文章基于1987年以来全球投资争端案例及2003～2017年中国对131个国家对外直接投资(OFDI)面板数据,研究异质性国际投资争端对中国OFDI影响的差异.研究结果表明:国际投资争端数量增加和违约程度提高对...     

中国对外直接投资的区位分布和响应机制:2002～2010年

基于"走出去"战略、转型期制度环境、双边投资协定以及中国传统商业文化四个维度分析中国OFDI东道国响应机制的母国制度效应,并基于2002～2010年中国OFDI在全球99个国家的区位分布进行反向验证,结果表明:"走出去"战略使大规模OFDI在企业未形成所有权优势的情况下提前出现,大多数企业的对外直接投资在全球范围内选择能够发挥自身非市场能力的制度环境;中国对外直接投资更多地流向了中国企业拥有更多潜在关系网络资源的国家和地区;从双边经贸制度安排来看,同发展中国家签订的双边投资协议对中国对外直接投资存在促进效应。     

制度环境质量如何影响中国在“一带一路”亚洲国家的OFDI区位选择？

在中国对外直接投资区位选择的研究中,关于制度环境质量的影响力是一个重要分支。基于2005—2017年中国对“一带一路”亚洲19个主要国家的直接投资数据,通过制度、环境、质量3个纬度的分析发现:整体上中国在“一带一路”亚洲国家的对外直接投资（OFDI）中既不呈现制度风险偏好倾向,也无制度接近的特征;较大规模的OFDI明显对两国制度环境波动的差距更加敏感,而投资东道国的融资便利是吸引较大规模OFDI流入的显著影响因素;较小规模的OFDI会更偏向于市场规模大、经济增速缓慢、资源充裕的国家。     

信仰的力量:东道国宗教信仰会影响中国OFDI吗？

基于2003-2015年中国对外直接投资流量数据及ARDA宗教数据，构造引力模型实证考察东道国宗教信仰多样性和东道国与中国宗教信仰相似性对中国OFDI的影响。分析结果表明，东道国宗教信仰多样性对中国OFDI有促进效应，但东道国与中国宗教信仰相似性对OFDI没有显著正影响。使用1900年宗教信仰结构匹配的宗教变量及1500年东道国与中国的遗传距离作为工具变量，纠正模型中可能存在的内生性问题后，这一结论依然存在。同时，用控制传导变量及剔除金融危机影响的方法进行稳健性测试的结果也支持这一结论。最后，在进一步的作用机制检验中初步发现，宗教信仰会通过选择偏好效应、信任间性效应和制度介导效应作用于对外直接投资。     

货币互换协议、金融市场与中国对外直接投资

基于2003-2018年169个国家的面板数据,文章利用多期双重差分方法探讨了货币互换协议对我国对外直接投资规模与密集度的影响,并通过PSM-DID方法和证伪检验对模型的稳健性进行验证。在此基础上,运用中介效应和调节效应检验方法对货币互换政策的金融市场作用机制进行分析。研究发现,货币互换协议对我国OFDI规模与密集度均有显著积极影响;预期汇率风险是货币互换协议促进我国OFDI的重要影响机制,中介传导而非调节效应是主要影响渠道,而利率市场的影响机制尚未发挥作用。在经济全球化和复杂的国际形势下,这一研究对我国进一步推动国家间金融领域深化合作和推进人民币国际化以畅通国内国际双循环具有重要参考价值。     

The impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment on domestic innovation

This paper explores the reversal technology spillovers of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on Chinese firms. Combining a uniquely merged database of Chinese firm-level OFDI and patent data and applying the Propensity-Score-Method-Difference-In-Differences (PSM-DID) methodology, we find a positive causal effect of OFDI on invention patent applications. Some estimations of heterogeneous effects show that OFDI promotes invention patent applications for private enterprises but has mute impact on state-owned and foreign-owned enterprises. With respect to OFDI host countries, OFDI toward developed countries is more effective for promoting innovation activities than developing countries. Three potential transmission channels of OFDI are empirically tested: direct technology purchases, access to high-tech inputs, and international mobility of personnel. Lastly, some policy implications are raised for China’s “Going Out” strategy and the economic development driven by innovation.     

Chinese OFDI responses to the B&R initiative: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

Based on an exogenous quasi-natural experiment, combined with administrative data from International Trade Statistics and the China Global Investment Tracker database, this study uses a difference-in-differences approach to examine whether the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can help alleviate the negative effect of political risks in host countries on Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). The empirical findings are as follows. a) When controlling for firm-level and country-level variables and various fixed effects, high-level international political cooperation under the BRI can considerably increase Chinese OFDI. b) Political risks in host countries significantly reduce Chinese investment and increase losses, and the BRI mainly stimulates investment through mechanisms that seek to reduce policy uncertainty and political risks in host countries for Chinese firms. c) By further considering the gain (or loss) status of Chinese investment projects, the study shows that the BRI has a limited role in reducing investment losses. The study also performs a series of robustness tests to eliminate the influence of firm heterogeneity, informal political interference, and random effects. The overall results are consistent with those of the quasi-experiment.     

The Determinants and Motivations of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Spatial Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

The study attempts to investigate the features and determinants of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) into 138 countries and Chinese firms' investment strategies over the 2003–2009 period using an augmented gravity model with spatial linkages. The respective evaluations of China's OFDI are indicative of the important role played by non-financial OFDI. At the same time, Chinese firms prefer to invest in high-tech industries in developed countries while also focusing on the extraction of natural resources around the world. The empirical findings show that the host country's economic size has a significantly positive effect in terms of promoting Chinese OFDI. Chinese firms favour a complex-vertical platform in the developed countries while they prefer a market potential foreign direct investment (FDI) surrounding the host developing countries and an export-platform FDI in the petroleum exporting countries based on the surrounding market potential effect and spatial effect. The fuel extraction motive plays a key role in China's OFDI in line with the realities of Chinese FDI strategies in recent years.     

Forty Years Development of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Retrospect and the Challenges Ahead

Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increasingly become an important method for China to integrate into the world economy. This paper comprehensively reviews and analyzes policy development and the changing pattern of China's OFDI over the past 40 years. We divide the development into “restricted” (1978–1999), “relaxed” (2000–2016) and “regulated” (2017 onwards) stages. This paper also reviews literature on the impact of Chinese OFDI on China and host countries. Despite its generally positive effects, large‐scale and unbalanced OFDI activities have alarmed Chinese policymakers. Both developing and developed host countries have expressed their concern over national security and the misbehavior of some Chinese overseas enterprises. Therefore, greater supervision and adjustment from quantity to quality growth is necessary for the future development of China's OFDI.     

中国OFDI影响因素的实证——与出口的比较分析

与大规模的出口和FDI的吸收相比,中国OFDI还处于较低水平。文章基于企业对外出口与直接投资的模型分析,考察东道国生产的固定成本、工资水平、市场规模以及跨国间贸易成本和企业生产率等多种因素对企业对外直接投资的影响;采用中国与29个国家(地区)2005-2011年的面板数据实证检验了这些因素对中国对外直接投资的影响;结果表明中国企业要实现对外特别是对发达国家较大规模的直接投资,还尚待时日,企业应该在提高企业生产效率,推进生产技术进步、提高产品生产结构等方面做出努力,政府需要在构建与东道国良好的投资环境等方面对企业走出去加以支持。     

Overseas industrial parks and China's outward foreign direct investment

We manually collect data on China's overseas industrial parks from 2007 to 2018, and match it with data on the country’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), using the system generalized method of moment (system GMM) approach to test how constructing overseas industrial parks affects China's OFDI. The results indicate that each new overseas industrial park established significantly increases China's OFDI by 2.89%. And the effect only exists in non-high-income host countries, rather than high-income host countries. We also investigate the effects of different types of industrial parks, and find that agricultural, light industrial, high-tech, comprehensive and heavy industrial parks have significant effects, while logistics parks do not. The mechanism analysis suggests that establishing overseas industrial parks increases China’s OFDI by reducing host countries’ economic and financial risks, and improving bilateral political relations. We further find that establishing overseas industrial parks is more likely to promote OFDI in host countries with imperfect infrastructure, impeded capital flows and low levels of unimpeded information. Our findings shed light on how developing countries could enlarge and stabilize OFDI.     

Host countries’ growth opportunities and China's outward FDI

In 2014, China proposed the Belt and Road policy, which has pushed China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) to over tens of billions of US dollars. However, existing studies have not reached a consensus about the decisive factors in China's OFDI. To verify whether China's OFDI activities are motivated by profits, this paper applies a measure of country‐specific growth opportunities adopted by Bekaert et al. (2007) to measure the growth opportunities of the target countries for China's OFDI. A multinational panel data model, based on data from 51 countries from 2003 to 2012, is used to explore the relationship between host countries’ growth opportunities and China's OFDI. Overall, the analysis finds that China's OFDI does not follow the host countries’ growth opportunities but exhibits different features toward developed countries and developing countries. For developed countries, China's OFDI follows host countries’ growth opportunities to some extent. In the case of developing countries, China's OFDI does not follow host countries’ growth opportunities. When we consider factors such as a host country's financial development and political stability, improvement in these factors improves the attractiveness of the host country to China's OFDI. It is also found that the 2008 global financial crisis did not have a very significant impact on China's OFDI activities.     

The quality of host government and China’s OFDI: Construction of micro-evaluation model of government quality

Government is not only an important participant in the process of national governance, but also a firm executor and supervisor of national policies. In the process of China’s active promotion of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), the risks caused by the poor quality of the host government have not been paid enough attention to. This paper builds a micro-evaluation model of government quality from four aspects based on the quality of government expert survey. The results show that although the scores of developed countries are generally higher than those of developing countries, the growth of China’s OFDI in developing countries is higher than in developed countries. In particular, the growth of investment to the member states of The Belt and Road Initiative is more significant. How to realize mutually beneficial achievements between China's overseas investment and host countries with low government quality is an important issue for China.