Learning and Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models

The extant literature is split on the best measure of marginal cost in the New Keynesian Philips Curve, with the output gap and the labor share being the most commonly advocated proxy measures. Which one is the best measure? In this article, I assume that agents update their understanding and expectation period by period, a learning process. In terms of econometrics, I use a recursive Vector Autoregression approach and conduct a forecasting exercise that considers updating of information sets used for formation of expectation. I find that the traditional output gap measure is a more significant variable explaining the dynamics of the U.S. inflation rate, as compared with a measure of the labor income share. Furthermore, the role of the output gap cannot be replaced using lagged values of inflation. Instead, both the output gap and lags of the actual inflation rate are important determinants of inflation.     

Vote share and return rates: A comparison of two measures of election outcomes

This paper compares two measures of House election outcomes: return rates and vote share for presidential party incumbents. It is found that these election variables move independently from each other. The empirical work discovers that the relationship between return rates and vote share varies as vote share increases and as time progresses. It reports that economic variables explain movement in return rates independent of vote share, but economic variables cannot explain variation in vote share independent of return rates. These results suggest return rates are more sensitive to economic fluctuations than vote share. This paper also finds that the magnitude of the response to changes in economic variables differs across these two election result terms.     

Inflation as the lesser evil

Abstract

The authors of this analysis of the German inflation seek to show the interdependence between the various factors which made that hyper-inflation possible, and the effects of the inflation on production, employment and the distribution of incomes. They reject an explanation of the German inflation in terms of the quantity theory which was widely held in the inter-war years. Instead they attempt to explain developments by showing the inter-relationship between the balance of payments, rates of exchange and the trend of internal prices and wages. According to this balance of payments theory, the supply of money will passively adjust itself to a rise in the level of prices and wages, the government budgetary deficit brought about by the faster rate of increase in prices and wages than in tax revenue being financed inter alia by the issue of notes.     

Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A comment

Conclusions As in Caporale and Pittis, this paper finds significant evidence supporting the hypothesis of long-run equilibrium relationships between inflation rates in countries which participate in the ERM. However, the results differ in several important respects. First, the evidence rejects a dynamic specification in terms of inflation differentials against Germany and in at least one important case, Table 5, it is clear that imposing this restriction may lead to invalid inferences on the role of the ERM as a mechanism to achieve inflation convergence. Second, on the issue of German leadership the results given in Tables 4 and 5 suggest that the German inflation rate cannot be considered weakly exogenous. Rather it shares a long-run relationship with inflation in both ERM and non-ERM economies and responds to deviations from these equilibria. Finally, as these results also hold for a sample period twice the length of that used by Caporale and Pittis they cast considerable doubt on their assertion that cointegrating relationships are unlikely to be detected when “the dynamic process of convergence is still going on”.     

Wage-Setting and Inflation Targets in EMU

Although the operation of national coordinated wage-bargainingsystems in EMU has produced low inflation rates, EMU-wide inflationhas been above the ECB target rate for the last 3 years. Bycontrast, under the ERM, inflation rates declined steadily after1992 to below 2 per cent in both the last 2 years of the regime.It is argued that this was the consequence of two low-inflationincentives under ERM: (i) the Maastricht inflation conditionfor EMU entry; and (ii) the combination of the Bundesbank threatto raise interest rates if German wage and price inflation roseabove acceptable limits, linked to the need for other ERM membersto follow low German inflation to stay within the exchange-ratebands. These incentives no longer operate under EMU, where individualeconomies do not have an incentive to contribute to low EMU-wideinflation. We suggest that inflation coordination between thelarge EMU member states might contribute to a solution whilepermitting the continuation of real exchange-rate adjustmentsof smaller economies.     

Does Central Bank Financial Strength Really Matter for Inflation? The Key Role of the Fiscal Support

This paper examines whether weak central bank finances affect inflation by scrutinizing the key rationale for such a relationship: that the absence of Treasury support makes central bank finances relevant for price stability. Specifically, I ask whether central banks which are not likely to enjoy fiscal support when needed experience higher inflation as their financial situation deteriorates. I find this to be true among a large sample of 82 countries between 1998 and 2008. De facto potential fiscal support appears relevant, while de jure fiscal support, which I survey analyzing 82 central bank laws, does not appear to matter. The results also bring forward an explanation for the conflicting results of the previous empirical studies, which neglected this key component.     

A nash equilibrium model of campaign spending

Conclusion This paper has presented a Nash equilibrium model of campaign spending. The equilibrium is always stable and it possesses sensible comparative static properties. Spending in equilibrium depends on the scale parameter of the vote-share production function and on the intensities of preference for marginal vote share by the two candidates. Thus, campaigns which turn into spending wars are characterized by large values of both candidates' intensities of preference for vote share.     

Forecasting inflation from the term structure

In this paper the authors analyze the forecasting ability of the term structure with respect to future inflation in Germany. In contrast to previous studies, they find evidence in favor of a nonstationary term premium. Assuming that the nonstationary part of the term premium can be approximated by an observable factor, they derive testable restrictions which cannot be rejected for German data. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, the model out-performs rival models which assume a constant term premium. Nevertheless, the authors find that the forecasting ability of the term structure is limited while the real interest rate, is revealed as a good predictor for future inflation rates. JEL no. E31, E37, E43.     

Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?

Using unit labor cost (ULC) data from Euro area countries as well as US States and German Länder we investigate inflation convergence using different approaches, namely panel unit root tests, cointegration tests and error-correction models. All in all we cannot reject convergence of ULC growth in EMU. However, country-specific deviations from the rest of the currency union are much more pronounced and much more persistent in Europe than in the US or Germany. This holds before and after the introduction of the common currency. Hence, asymmetric shocks in the future might take a long time to dissipate.     

Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era

We use the Johansen cointegration approach to assess the empirical validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) between the UK and Germany since the introduction of the euro. We conduct the empirical analysis in the context of the global financial crisis that began in 2007 and find that it directly affects the cointegration space. We fail to validate the Johansen and Juselius (1992) original hypothesis that nonstationarity of PPP associates with the nonstationarity of interest rate differentials to produce a stationary relation. On the other hand, we do not reject PPP. We find that PPP cointegrates with inflation differentials. We also find, contrary to conventional wisdom, that (i) equilibrium adjustment occurs between the German and UK inflation rates, while weak exogeneity exists for the German and UK interest rates and the PPP condition, and (ii) three common trends associated with the German interest rate the UK interest rate, and the PPP condition “push” the system with the German interest rate and the PPP condition playing dominant roles in affecting inflation in both Germany and the UK. These results cast serious doubt on the presumed independence of the UK monetary policy.     

INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A TIME‐SERIES VIEW ACROSS SECTORS USING LONG‐RANGE DEPENDENCE

In this paper I examine the time‐series evolution of the log consumer price index series in South Africa, disaggregating the data by sectors. I examine the time period 1990m1‐2008m12, i.e. focusing on the post‐apartheid period. I used methodologies based on fractional integration using parametric and semiparametric techniques. The results indicate that the (total) inflation rate in South Africa is long memory, with an order of integration in the range (0, 0.5). The same happens with most of the data disaggregated by sectors with values of d above 1 in the log prices. Evidence of I(0) inflation is obtained in some cases for “fruits and nuts”, “vegetables” and “sugar”, and evidence of mean reversion in the log prices is only obtained in the case of “fish and other seafood”.     

Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inflation expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inflation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.     

Inflation and price instability in China: A comment

In a recent article in the Review, Yi (1990) explores the relationship between the level of inflation in China and its predictability. Based on seven different models of the inflation expectations process, the evidence presented unambiguously supports the hypothesis that an increase in the level of inflation is positively associated with an increase in uncertainty about it. To test the robustness of this result, I explicitly account for two outliers in the inflation series and determine whether Yi's results hold after this adjustment. Once the influence of these two outliers are accounted for, there is no support for the level/uncertainty hypothesis using data for China.     

Globalization and Inflation: a Swiss Perspective

Is inflation caused by global developments instead of domestic monetary factors? This paper explores the role of globalization for inflation, especially in Switzerland, one of the smallest and most open economies where the globalization hypothesis should be most relevant. It provides tests of whether Swiss inflation is causally related to inflation elsewhere. It also examines Swiss inflation in a P* model and whether it is also influenced by inflation abroad or by import prices. It finds that Swiss inflation is made at home. Evidence is presented of a co-integrating relationship of Swiss and German inflation, likely due to common inflation objectives.     

Substantive Black Political Representation: Evidence from Matching Estimates in the United States House of Representatives

I seek to determine whether race is a factor in how black representatives vote in the United States House of Representatives; if so, this suggests electing more black representatives may improve the economic and political position of blacks if policy positions taken by black representatives on bills that fail to pass would provide tangible positive impacts to members of the black community if passed. Confounding the impact of legislator race, districts represented by blacks on average are quite different than those represented by whites. While past research on this topic uses linear regression techniques with undesirable properties, I improve on past research using matching techniques with more desirable properties. Utilizing a combination of Mahalanobis and propensity score matching, within-caliper matching, and exact matching using data from the 100th–113th Congress, I show black representatives are more likely to vote in agreement with the majority of the Congressional Black Caucus on all votes and on Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, Americans for Democratic Action, and Congressional Quarterly key votes, indicating a substantive racial impact on roll-call voting.     

MONEY,OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN AFRICAN ECONOMIES1

This paper examines the long‐run money‐inflation relation for 36 African countries using cross‐section and panel data analysis. The focus is on the recent claim by De Grauwe and Polan that the common finding in multi‐country studies of a strong positive link typically reflects the presence of high‐inflation countries in the sample and on Nelson's criticisms of the data and methodology employed in that study. Adjusting the De Grauwe and Polan methodology to take account of many of Nelson's criticisms, I confirm a weak long‐run relation between money growth and inflation for countries when money growth and inflation are below 10%, but a strong relation when money growth and inflation move much above that number. This result is not dependent on the inclusion of high inflation countries in the cross‐section and panel data samples.     

Inflation and total factor productivity in Germany: A response to Smyth

Conclusion The results in this paper support a somewhat modest conclusion: that for the rather tight range of inflation experienced by Germany over the sample period (-1.8 to 7.8 percent), inflation’s impact on TFP growth was so minor that it did not show up as statistically significant in the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with previous cross-sectional based research.⁹ The findings illustrate that Smyth’s analysis of the contemporaneous correlation between TFP growth and inflation quite likely overstates the potential benefit to Germany of zero inflation. One area for future inquiry, however, is whether the absence of inflationary effects on TFP growth also holds true for nations which have experienced higher levels, and greater fluctuations, of inflation than has Germany since 1950. It is possible that the German results are not the norm due to the nation’s relatively low average rate of inflation.     

Central Bank Autonomy,the Exchange Rate Constraint and Inflation: The Case of Italy, 1970–1992

This paper analyzes the determinants of inflation in Italy over the period 1970–1992. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of central bank independence in influencing monetary growth, and on the role of monetary growth and of the Exchange rate Mechanism (ERM) in affecting inflation. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Bank of Italy lacked independence and the ERM was still not credible, monetary growth was highly unstable and was the main determinant of Italian inflation, although oil price and tax shocks also played a role. After the March 1983 general exchange rate realignment and the French U-turn, the ERM became more credible and monetary growth stopped being a significant determinant of inflation; instead, the German inflation became the main variable influencing Italian inflation.     

German dominance in the European Monetary System: Evidence from money supply growth rates

This paper presents further evidence on ostensible German dominance in the European Monetary System (EMS). A dynamic system of equations is built explaining money growth rates as a function of the EMS countries' money growth rates, the world money growth rate, exchange rate objectives, inflation rates, and real income growth rates. A test of German dominance based upon money growth rates is a test of the hypothesis that the EMS has increased the comovements of money demand between countries in the system. It is found that German independence holds, but other central banks can also be important players in the system in that they can conduct independent monetary policies. Monetary policies in the EMS are best characterized as interactive. Therefore, the strict German dominance hypothesis is rejected. It follows that the EMS has not increased significantly the link between money demand functions in the EMS countries in the hierarchical structure as claimed by the dominance argument.     

The Policy Choices and Reaction Functions of Bank of England MPC Members

The results of an econometric exercise are presented, showing that Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members appointed from outside the ranks of Bank of England staff (outsiders) react differently to forecasts of inflation and output than those appointed from within the Bank (insiders). All results are reinforced by the well‐established findings that, compared with outsiders, insiders choose higher interest rates, are more likely to vote as a bloc, and feature on the winning side of policy decisions more frequently. On the basis of these results, it is argued that the current MPC framework is biased toward the policy choices of insiders.