Dynamic Effects of Extending the 2001 and 2003 Income Tax Cuts

This paper focuses on the impact of permanently extending most of the provisions in EGTRRA and JGTRRA, coupled with potential legislative changes to the AMT, on the federal deficit, the distribution of after-tax income, and economic growth. The paper shows that including moderate behavioral responses offsets 16 percent of the static revenue loss estimate from 2005 to 2014. In addition, including behavioral responses implies that the percentage change in after-tax income from permanently extending the 2001 and 2003 income tax cuts would be largest for taxpayers with incomes ranging from $20,000 to $40,000. Finally, the simulation results suggest that extending the 2001 and 2003 income tax cuts and reducing the growth rate of government spending (excluding Social Security and Medicare), assuming that government expenditures are cut to avoid dramatic increases in government consumption relative to GDP in comparison to historical norms, would increase investment, employment, and output. However, postponing the implementation of tight spending controls would more than offset the positive benefits of lower tax rates on the size of the economy and leave future generations with fewer resources for private consumption and production.JEL Code: E62, H20, H30, H60The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect those of the Baker Institute for Public Policy or any other organization. This paper was partially written while the author was employed by the Joint Committee on Taxation.     

实质性减税的效应分析:基于防范化解重大经济风险视角

当前,我国正处于经济结构调整和发展阶段转换的关键时期,防范化解重大经济风险是基本要求,实质性减税是重要改革措施。通过分析我国面临的重大经济风险和实质性减税的主要内容,可以发现实质性减税具有良好的防范化解重大经济风险的效应。更好发挥实质性减税的效应,需要筑牢财政基础,打通激励循环,做好跟踪优化。     

中国结构性减税的政策路径分析

实施结构性减税,既是我国在当前经济低迷时期促进经济稳定增长的有效手段,也是我国优化税制结构、降低宏观税收负担的主要途径。在我国存在税收征管目标与结构性减税政策矛盾的情况下,我国应进一步完善征管理念,加强征管法制建设,将结构性减税政策落到实处。     

我国出口退税政策调整的影响效应分析

新一轮出口退税机制对我国的财政、经济均有一定的影响。此出口退税机制将进一步加剧地方保护主主义,不利于国内市场的统一。但将优化出口产品结构,缓解人民币升值的压力。     

应对当前经济形势,理顺出口退税政策

在当前出现全球性金融和经济危机,国内经济大幅度下滑的背景下,改革和完善出口退税机制是完全必要的。鉴于当前我国出口退税率、出口退税财政负担机制和出口退税预算等方面存在的问题,实行出口退税零税率、由中央财政全额负担出口退税支出、改革出口退税预算制度等措施,既是新时期理顺政府间责权利关系、提高政府效能的基本要求,又是当前有效应对国际金融危机、促进外贸出口持续健康发展的有效举措。     

持久性减税对地方财政可持续性的动态效应研究

持久性减税可能对地方财政造成动态冲击,合理施策有利于保障地方财政可持续性。为此,选取我国2010—2019年251个地级市数据,使用熵值法从财源结构、支出效益、治理目标和区域协调四个方面构建地方财政可持续性指标,系统考察持久性减税对地方财政可持续性的短期与长期动态效应。研究发现：持久性减税短期内不利于地方财政可持续性,但从长期来看,将对地方财政可持续性产生显著的促进作用;异质性分析表明,短期内减税对地方财政可持续性的负向影响在经济发展水平更高、财政自给率更高以及产业结构高级化更强的地级市更明显,因此要更加注意施策力度。     

房地产税收的一般经济分析

房地产税作为地方政府理想的收入来源,对于实质性财政分权制度的建立具有非常重要的作用。关于房地产税的税负归宿问题,理论界存在三种不同的观点。但这三种观点并不是相互排斥的,在不同的情况下,每种观点可能都是有效的。按照现代资产定价理论,房地产税收通过改变住宅投资的预期增值,从而影响住宅资产价格的走势。     

关于进一步完善结构性减税政策的研究

由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机,不仅冲击了许多发达国家,而且波及广大发展中国家,我国同样遭受影响。为应对这场金融危机,我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,取得了良好的效果。本文着重分析我国应对金融危机的结构性减税政策,说明了实施结构性减税政策的原因,介绍了结构性减税政策的内容,总结了结构性减税政策实施的成效与存在的问题,提出了进一步完善结构性减税政策的建议。     

Tax Competition and Tax Coordination in the European Union

This paper examines the tax competition literature and attempts to draw out its implications for the debate on corporate tax coordination within the EU. It begins with the early basic tax competition model, which derives conditions under which underprovision of public services occurs and tax harmonization unambiguously improves welfare for all states in the union. The paper then turns to a wide variety of extensions of this model, some of which reinforce its results and others that yield rather different conclusions. The analysis concludes by considering the implications of the tax competition literature for the debate on EU corporate tax coordination, drawing on some recent efforts to synthesize this vast literature by estimating the efficiency costs of tax competition and simulating the efficiency gains from various tax coordination palns.     

近年来税收政策手段运用的回顾与分析

我国实施积极财政政策的过程中，在税收方面采取了一系列促进出口、投资和消费增长，促进科技进步和相关产业发展的政策。但仍然存在对纳税人行为缺乏必要分析、某些政策欠公平和缺乏透明度等问题。当前需要根据经济形势的变化，综合考虑各方面的要求，实行有增有减的税收政策。     

税收增长与经济增长关系的实证分析

运用回归分析方法对我国税收增长与经济增长的关系进行实证分析的结果表明:我国税收增长处于合理增长范围;税收增长与经济增长关系基本协调;税收收入增长的强劲势头保持一段时期是没有问题的;税收收入必将进入与GDP增速协调发展的轨道。     

税收政策对农村经济发展影响研究

现行税收政策对农业的调节功能较弱，税收政策调整滞后于农业经济发展的总体变化。鉴于税收对农村经济增长、农业资本投入、农业技术进步及农业产业结构都存在不同程度的影响，建议在税收政策上给予农业良好的环境空间，以形成有利于刺激农村经济发展的良性机制。     

物业税改革的经济影响:一个文献综述

自从2003年我国提出物业税改革的设想后,物业税改革成为了一个热点话题.分析物业税改革可能带来的经济影响是当前讨论的重点之一.物业税将逐渐成为地方政府的一个稳定的主要收入来源.为地方政府提供长期而稳定的激励,提高地方公共财政的效率;物业税改革在短期内会降低房价,不过幅度不会太大,也不会降低购房者的负担;物业税改革还可以提高土地资源的配置效率,一定程度上缓解由土地批租制度带来的地方政府"寅吃卯粮"的问题.     

当前的财税形势及政策取向

2008年年初以来,由于国内接连发生的严重自然灾害的冲击和世界金融危机的不利影响,我国经济增长和财政收入增长呈逐季回落的态势。但从总体来看,我国经济基本面是好的,支持经济较快增长的长期因素依然在起作用。本文认为,为了防止经济出现过度下滑,宏观政策重新定位势在必行,财政政策要转为适度扩张,并加大支出结构调整力度。     

推动"两型社会"建设的"绿色"财税政策体系研究

财税政策作为政府宏观调控的基本手段,在矫正市场配置生态环境资源失灵方面具有得天独厚的优势,应该在我国两型社会建设中发挥重要作用。借鉴国外成功经验,应从形成稳定增长的绿色财政投入机制、建立贯穿产品生命周期全过程的绿色税收体系、实施灵活高效的绿色税收优惠政策、推进优先购买节能环保产品的政府绿色采购制度四个方面构建推动两型社会建设的财税政策体系。     

Tax Evasion and Auditing in a Federal Economy

This paper analyzes the relation between tax auditing and fiscal equalization in the context of fiscal competition. We incorporate a model of tax evasion by firms into a standard tax competition framework where regional governments use their audit rates as a strategic instrument to engage in fiscal competition. We compare the region’s choice of audit policies for three different cases: A scenario of unconfined competition without interregional transfers, a scenario with a gross revenue equalization (GRS) scheme and finally, a scenario with net revenue sharing (NRS), where not only the revenues from taxation but also the regions auditing costs are shared. Without regional transfers, fiscal competition leads to audit rates which are inefficiently low for revenue-maximizing governments. While in general GRS aggravates the inefficiency, NRS makes the decentralized choice of auditing policies more efficient.JEL Code: H26, H71, H77     

论促进经济可持续发展的税收调控机制

可持续发展战略的提出虽然有了较长一段时期,但税收在可持续发展中的功能并没有引起人们足够重视。在可持续发展战略中,税收政策应该发挥其应有的重要作用。有必要调整并完善现有税收制度政策,以调节和影响市场主体的行为,调动各经济主体的积极性,激励他们走可持续发展的道路。     

当前我国经济发展方式转变进程中的财税政策选择

“十一五”以来,我国把转变经济发展方式,实现节能降耗和经济可持续发展做为经济工作的重点,并采取了一系列的政策和措施,但是受体制机制、国际环境、贸易条件、资源约束、技术瓶颈、财税政策等诸多因素的影响,我国经济发展方式转变进程缓慢,“高投入、高消耗、高污染、高浪费、低成本、低收益”的经济发展格局没有得到根本性的改变,对生态环境造成的破坏逐渐严重,资源供给愈显紧张,煤炭、钢材、水泥等资源消耗巨大,极端天气频繁发生,社会居民的生态安全面临严峻考验。我们必须以复苏经济为契机,采取积极完善体制机制、健全财税政策等措施,切实缓解人与自然和环境的矛盾．从根本上实现国民经发展方式的转变。     

促进中国总需求结构调整的财税政策探析

消费需求、投资需求和出口需求在总需求结构中应保持适当的比例关系,只有消费驱动型的经济增长模式才是有利于中国经济持续、高效、和谐发展的有效选择.目前中国存在消费与投资、内需与外需的矛盾.中国政府应通过建立完善的社会保障体系、政府投资体制以及充分运用出口退税等财税政策,促进中国总需求结构的调整.扩大消费需求并调整投资需求和出口需求的总量与结构,从而实现宏观经济持续、稳定、和谐发展的目标.     

Tax Rate Uncertainty, Investment Decisions, and Tax Neutrality

This article deals with the effects of tax rate uncertainty (TRU) on individual investment behavior. We show that under risk neutrality as well as under risk aversion, increased TRU has an ambiguous impact on investment, depending on the investment project's structure of cash flows and depreciation deductions. Although the investment effects are small the popular view that tax policy uncertainty depresses real investment is rejected. Further, tax neutrality in the light of tax policy uncertainty is defined more precisely. Neutrality results for the Johansson-Samuelson tax and the cash flow tax that are known from certainty are confirmed under TRU.