贷款利率市场化降低了企业债务违约风险吗?

以中国人民银行放开贷款利率上限和下限为准自然实验,检验贷款利率市场化如何影响企业债务违约风险.研究发现:贷款利率上限的放开对企业债务违约风险的影响不明显,但下限的放开却能显著降低企业债务违约风险,并且这种作用一部分是通过遏制"短贷长投"的渠道实现的;此外,异质性检验表明,下限放开降低企业债务违约风险的作用在规模小以及研发投入高的企业中更明显.     

委托贷款违约风险传染与企业银行借款

违约是信用风险传染的一种表现形式,现有研究忽视了委托贷款的违约风险。本文利用上市公司委托贷款数据研究发现,委托贷款借入方违约导致贷出方银行借款可得性下降。当贷出方两权分离程度和融资约束较高时,其抵御风险能力较弱,更容易受到风险传染;货币政策从紧时期以及经济政策不确定性较高时期,风险传染更容易发生。进一步研究发现,借入方违约通过提高贷出方的经营风险,降低了贷出方银行借款可得性。本文为企业间风险传染提供了实证证据,对于企业委托贷款决策、银行授信决策和监管部门防控金融创新工具的风险具有一定的启示作用。     

论中国银行业经营管理面临的挑战——基于违约风险的中国商业银行的贷款定价

随着我国稳步推进利率市场化,要求我国银行按照市场风险来确定贷款利率.由于在金融市场中信用风险是最为基本、危害最大的一类风险,本文将通过美国KMV公司提出的信用监控KMV模型着重考察商业银行基于考虑违约信用风险的时候的贷款利率的确定问题.     

降低国家助学贷款违约风险——广东模式探析

本文从国家助学贷款还款现状出发,通过对广东模式的详细解析,提出了一些降低国家助学贷款违约风险的改革措施。     

农户贷款违约风险的理论研究

农村资金短缺是我国"三农"困境的重要成因,农户贷款难的问题本质上就是农户贷款违约风险的问题。通过从国外违约风险研究的动态分析、生成机理与特征、违约实证分析、社会资本、生存分析方法几个方面探讨了农户贷款违约风险的相关研究现状、动态发展及不足之处。     

当前贷款利率浮动管理、利率风险及建议

本通过对当前贷款利率的管理和浮动情况、利率风险状况、贷款利率政策和管理中存在问题的调查与分析，提出了现阶段利率管理要顺应利率市场化和金融业发展的要求，放松利率管制，增加利率弹性，鼓励商业银行加强业务创新和利率风险管理等政策建议。     

企业债券违约风险及其防范——以永泰能源为例

本文从永泰能源连续发生债券违约的案例入手,在企业层面、监管层面、信用评级层面分析我国企业债券违约风险的成因,提出采用建立风险预警机制、多层级集中监管模式以及改进评级方法等方式进行相应防范。     

个人住房贷款的利率风险及其防范

目前，个人住房贷款利率风险客观存在的且有加大的趋势，尽管该利率风险主要存在于借款人当中，但是要有效化解借款人的利率风险，需要多方协力．共同努力。笔者尝试从借款人、中央银行、商业银行和保险机构的角度，研究如何回避、控制、转嫁、消除利率风险。     

国家助学贷款的违约风险与防范

文章基于当前实施国家助学贷款过程中的违约现象,剖析违约风险产生的原因,探讨推进和完善国家助学贷款风险防范体系的对策思路。应落实新的国家助学贷款制度,完善学校的助学贷款管理体系和个人征信系统,加大违约的处罚力度,加强诚信教育,努力营造诚信环境。     

违约贷款回收率:基于国外实证研究的分析

本文在对国外银行贷款回收率研究进行总结的基础上,对违约贷款回收率的影响因素、信用风险模型中违约回收率的建模进行了分析,并对商业银行进行违约贷款回收率的建模提出了建议。     

Default Risk Estimation,Bank Credit Risk,and Corporate Governance

This study explores the relationship between credit risks of banks and the corporate governance structures of these banks from the perspective of creditors. The cumulative default probabilities are estimated for a sample of US commercial and savings banks to measure their risk taking behavior. The results show that one year and five year cumulative default probabilities are time‐varying, with a significant jump observed in the year prior to the financial crisis of 2008–09. Generally speaking, corporate governance structures have a greater impact on US commercial banks than on savings institutions. We provide evidence that, after controlling for firm specific characteristics, commercial banks with larger boards and older CFOs are associated with significantly lower credit risk levels. Lower ownership by institutional investors and more independent boards also have lower credit risk levels, although these effects are somewhat less significant. For all the banks in our sample, large board size, older CFO, and less busy directors are associated with lower credit risk levels. When we restrict the sample to consider the joint effects of the governance variables, the results on board size and busy directors are maintained.     

Optimal Loan Interest Rate Contract Design

This paper analyzes optimal loan interest rate contracts under conditions of risky, symmetric information for one-period (static) and multi-period (dynamic) models. The optimal loan interest rate depends upon the volatility of, and co-variation among the market interest rate, borrower collateral, and borrower income, as well as the time horizon and the risk preferences of lenders and borrowers. For a risk-averse borrower with stochastic collateral, variable interest rate contracts are, in general, Pareto optimal. For plausible assumptions, the optimal loan interest rate for the multi-period model often exhibits muted responses to changes in market interest rates, making fixed rate loans a reasonable approximation for the optimal loan. Hence, in the absence of optimal contracts, long-term (short-term) borrowers tend to prefer fixed rate (variable) contracts.     

信用违约风险传染模型的比较研究

本文试图对几种有代表性的模型进行比较,来分析由于建模方式的不同,而导致的对信用期权定价和对冲的结果的不同.如果将违约风险传染考虑进去,类似德隆帝国崩溃的事件,或许就能避免.     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

基于久期理论的商业银行利率风险实证研究

随着我国利率市场化进程的加快,商业银行所面临的利率风险越来越严重,对利率风险的管理也越来越受到关注。本文通过对久期理论及模型的研究,对比其他理论方法简要分析了久期在我国的适用性,之后结合我国商业银行的相关财务数据,实证分析了我国商业银行所面临的利率风险,并对多家商业银行的风险进行了比较,最终给出简要的结论及相应的建议。     

基于主观违约性的银行客户信用评级改善

商业银行信用评级是银行风险防范的基础,但是目前的客户信用评级体系中缺乏主观违约指标,不能全面反映客户的信用等级.主观还款意愿应作为信用评级不可忽略的要素,为此,本文在充分考虑影响客户违约的客观指标基础上,纳入主观违约这一刚性指标,以反映客户还款意愿,并基于模糊综合评判方法,某银行对运用该指标前后的违约客户进行信用评级,评级结果的假设检验显示,纳入该指标前后,存在着显著性差异,表明主观违约指标纳入信用评级体系具有合理性,有利于推进国内评级的改善.     

公司信用债违约风险预警与防范研究

我国债券规模位居世界第二,债券市场已成为企业直接融资的主要渠道;同时我国公司信用债违约频发,违约主体几乎涵盖了全部行业,永煤AAA债券违约事件引发各方关注。在此背景下,本文研究了信用债违约风险预警与防范,搭建了债券违约预警模型:一是深入分析了违约原因,提出了经济下行加剧‘债务-通缩’流动性分层导致再融资困难民企互保引发违约风险串联的观点;二是基于KLR信号分析法,以历史违约主体财报数据为基础构建了上市公司债违约预警模型,抽离出相关指标权重构成预警指标体系,并进行了实证检验;三是基于预警模型,提出加强动态监测、构建债券风险分类管理办法等政策建议。     

Credit Risk Estimation for Small Businesses Based on a Statistical Method

Many financial statements are currently stored in databases, and statistical research of them can yield valuable results. We have developed a bankruptcy prediction model that determines fair interest rates for loans. Furthermore, we estimate the present discount values of loans with fair interest rates that depend on the quality of companies. If economic conditions are stable, it is possible to get stable returns with diversification of investment.     

我国个人住房贷款利率合理水平探讨

本文从个人住房贷款利率水平影响因素角度入手，运用中美两国住房贷款利率水平比较的方法对我国当前的个人住房贷款的合理利率水平进行分析。得出了我国目前的个人住房贷款利率水平偏高的基本结论，认为我国商业银行拥有高于国外同行的超额利润，房贷存在“暴利”，我国浮动利率住房贷款利率水平合理的范围应当在4-5％左右。     

贷款利率市场化前后商业银行股票网络拓扑性质分析

运用复杂网络方法,构建商业银行股票收益率网络,考量贷款利率市场化前后商业银行股票网络的拓扑性质变化.结果表明:贷款利率市场化前后,16家商业银行股票收益率相关系数没有发生显著变化,网络的平均路径长度及聚集系数也未发生明显变化,但贷款利率市场化后国有五大行股票收益距离更近,彼此相关性更强,网络中心节点变化较大.