我国房地产融资方式的比较、选择与调整

央行121号文件发布以来,中央政府及具体职能部门一系列紧缩房地产银行信贷的政策和措施,拉开了我国房地产融资多元化发展的帷幕。本文分析与比较了目前我国存在的银行信贷、企业债券、企业上市、境外融资、投资基金和信托等主要的房地产融资方式运作的内在机理和宏观环境,以期正确选择和有目的地调整我国房地产融资方式。据此,提出我国房地产多元化融资在近期内应选择“银行贷款 房地产信托”和“银行贷款 房地产投资基金”两种模式。同时,为保障这两种模式的有效运作,应对银行内部资产负债互动机制的构建、投资基金法的确立和信托融资中不必要限制的解禁等方面进行调整。     

我国房地产价格影响因素及其作用效应的计量检验

目前,房地产价格的过快增长已经成为影响民生的突出问题,房地产价格的增长远远超过了居民消费和收入水平的增长。我国政府已经将遏制部分城市房价过快上涨势头、满足人民群众的基本住房需求、促进房地产市场平稳健康发展作为房地产市场的宏观调控目标。因此对房地产价格的影响因素进行实证研究,可以为我国宏观政策的制定与实施提供经验证据。     

开征物业税对我国房地产市场的影响分析

开征物业税有利于转变政府职能,使政府的税源更依赖于环境的建设,而不是过多地依赖于土地出让;有利于减轻开发商在房地产开发初期的资金压力,降低其经营风险,吸引更多的开发商进入,促进房地产业的竞争,增进消费者福利;有利于鼓励和实现房地产的自住性需求;有利于抑制房地产市场的投资和投机行为。但由于开征物业税会导致房地产开发成本和进入壁垒降低,也可能造成房地产开发过度,产生房地产泡沫。     

外部经济失衡、流动性过剩与房地产投资过热

随着我国经济的高速发展,国际收支顺差不断增加,外部经济失衡加剧;同时,国内经济方面出现了由流动性过剩引起内部经济的结构性失衡,导致了我国经济出现了内外"双失衡"。该文通过国际收支顺差、流动性过剩和国内房地产投资之间关系的实证分析,认为国际收支顺差与流动性过剩是我国房地产投资过热的主要原因,并依此提出了政策建议。     

Asymmetric Information and the Predictability of Real Estate Returns

This article examines the relation between systematic price changes and the heterogeneity of investors information sets in real estate asset markets. The empirical implications rely on a theoretical economy in which information asymmetry alters the dynamic relation between returns and trading volume. We employ a filter-rule methodology to determine predictability in returns and augment the return-based conditioning set with trading volume. The additional conditioning information is necessary since the model is underspecified when predictability is based on returns alone. Our results provide new insight into the coexistence of informational and noninformational exchange in the speculative markets for real estate assets. Specifically, we find that the predictability of real estate returns is generally more indicative of portfolio rebalancing effects than an adverse-selection problem. These results are unique in addressing the time-variation in information asymmetry.     

投资性房地产公允价值计量的价值相关性研究

2007年执行新会计准则后,与2006年相比,我国上市公司对投资性房地产在运用公允价值后续计量的情况下,投资性房地产公司采用公允价值计量的房地产类、银行类整体公允价值变化额有积极的市场反应,与股票价值具有价值相关性,会计信息的决策有用性有所提高。其他类投资性房地产整体公允价值变化额未出现积极的市场反应。     

The Relative Importance of Stock, Bond and Real Estate Factors in Explaining REIT Returns

This paper examines the link between REIT, financial asset and real estate returns, and tests whether it changed subsequent to the “REIT boom” of the early 1990s. The main focus is on answering the question do REIT returns now better reflect the performance of underlying direct (unsecuritized) real estate? We develop and implement a variance decomposition for REIT returns that separates REIT return variability into components directly related to major stock, bond, and real estate-related return indices, as well as idiosyncratic or sector-specific effects. This is applied to aggregate REIT sector (NAREIT) returns as well as returns to size and property-type based REIT portfolios. Our results show that the REIT market went from being driven largely by the same economic factors that drive large cap stocks through the 1970s and 1980s to being more strongly related to both small cap stock and real estate-related factors in the 1990s. There is also a steady increase over time in the proportion of volatility not accounted for by stock, bond or real estate related factors. We also find that small cap REITs are “more like real estate” compared to larger cap REITs, at least over the 1993–1998 period. We argue that this could be a result of the institutionalization of the ownership of larger cap REITs that took place in the 1990s.     

不动产证券化在城市更新中的应用研究

不动产证券化被引入城市更新中具有诸多优势,这也是解决当前城市更新困境的有效途径之一。本文首先利用SWOT分析法研究不动产证券化在城市更新中的应用,然后探讨不动产证券化的最新发展类型——开发型不动产证券化的运作模式,最后对我国利用不动产证券化促进城市更新提出政策建议。     

宏观调控政策对房地产项目现金流及偿债能力的影响

本文基于房地产开发项目月度现金流模型、统计数据和相关假设,构建模型的典型示例,研究现金流的主要影响因素、宏观调控政策对房地产市场以及房地产开发项目现金流的影响,对典型示例进行宏观调控政策影响的组合压力测试.研究表明:房地产开发项目偿债能力受销售情况影响大,受贷款金额和利率的影响小;如果宏观政策引起房地产市场销售显著放缓...     

An Empirical Estimation of Default Risk of the UK Real Estate Companies

Based on the Black and Scholes (Black, F., and M. Scholes. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal of Political Economy 81, 637–659) and Merton (Merton, R. C. (1974). On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates, Journal of Finance 29, 449–470) (BSM) contingent claims model, and KMV Corporation framework, we estimate the distance to default and the “risk neutral” default probabilities for a sample of 112 real estate companies over the period 1980 to 2001. Our empirical results classifies failed and non-failed companies into Type I error, cases that the BSM-type model fails to predict default when it did occur, and Type II error where BSM-type model predicts default when it did not occur. We find that none of the companies belong to the category of Type I error. Type II error is observed in 12 out of 112 companies. These results support the theoretical underpinnings of the BSM-type structural model in that the two driving forces of default are high leverage and high asset volatility.     

论我国房地产税改革的目标及思路

房地产税的改革目标应是为地方政府提供稳定透明的收入来源,完善财权与事权相对称的地方财政体制。因此,建议循着新思路,通过对相关制度的配套改革来实现。     

Buyer Search Intensity and the Role of the Residential Real Estate Broker

This study examines the impact of the real estate broker on the effectiveness of buyer search by focusing on the linkages between search intensity and the duration of search. How long a buyer searches depends on how sensitive the buyer is to within-period search costs and across-period, sequential search costs. High-income individuals and other homebuyers with high within-period search costs tend to search longer and less intensively. Buyers with high across-period search costs, such as out-of-town buyers, tend to search more intensively. Brokers, by reducing the opportunity costs of within-period search, increase buyer search intensity, which in turn reduces actual search time.     

房地产税收结构与房价关系的研究

近些年,房价问题引起社会普遍关注。本文通过建立面板数据模型,研究了不同地区的房地产税收对房价的影响。研究表明房地产税收对房价有影响,但各个税种在不同地区的影响效果和贡献度不同。因此,差别化房地产税收制度结构是当前房地产市场调控的关键。     

完善我国现行不动产税制的基本构想

十六届三中全会中有关改革不动产税制的提法,引起了全社会的广泛关注.我国现行不动产税制主要有城镇土地使用税、房产税及对外资企业征收的城市房地产税等.本文在对我国现行不动产税制存在问题进行分析的基础上,借鉴西方发达国家开征不动产税的经验,指出我国不动产税制改革方向.     

A Note on the Earnings of Real Estate Salespersons and others in the Financial Services Industry

The earnings of females in various sales professions are less than their male counterparts. By expanding on the set of variables used by Jud and Winkler we were able to explain a large portion of this differential for most professions. Child rearing and marriage explain much of the differential in income in business sales outside of real estate. These variables fail to explain the remaining large gap in real estate sales, however.     

房地产业发展与国民经济增长的互动关系——以湖北省为例

从中国经济近年的发展来看,房地产业已经成为我国经济的基础性、主导性和支柱性产业。房地产业对国民经济增长的带动性强,对相关产业的辐射面广,成为国民经济发展的“睛雨表”。由于房地产业具有明显的区域特征,文章以湖北省房地产业为例,利用计量模型分析房地产业与国民经济增长之间的互动关系,并对房地产业的健康发展提出了相关的政策建议。     

商品房价格与我国房地产业周期发展

相对持续高涨的房价,我国城市居民购房能力萎缩。房地产业连续9年的快速增长,使其到了发展的巅峰。发展过热的争论和投资过快引发的经济问题,实际是房地产业周期性发展规律的必然表现。房地产业周期性发展的拐点近年将会出现,未雨绸缪应引起高度重视。     

The Earnings of Real Estate Salespersons and Others in the Financial Services Industry

This study explores the determinants of earnings of salespersons in financial services using nationwide data from the 1990 U.S. Census. The study reveals that security and insurance salespersons earn substantially more than do persons in real estate sales. The returns to K through 12 schooling are highest in the insurance and securities areas, while the returns to college are highest in security sales. For males, the returns to graduate education are negative in real estate and insurance. For females in these same areas, returns are large and positive in insurance and negative in real estate. In all areas of financial services, earnings are higher in larger, more wealthy, homogenous cities.     

宏观调控与房地产上市公司资本结构调整

本文研究了宏观调控对房地产上市公司资本结构的影响及其资本结构调整方式的变化。研究发现,宏观调控之后,房地产上市公司总负债率显著提高;借款的期限发生了显著变化,长期借款显著增加而短期借款显著减少,但总的有息负债没有发生显著变化;房地产上市公司的贸易应付款显著增加,这是资产负债率显著提高的主要原因。对房地产上市公司宏观调控前后融资方式变化的研究发现,随着宏观调控带来的银行信贷政策的趋紧,房地产企业融资方式出现了多元化,新的融资工具得以出现和发展,金融市场的完全性提高。研究表明,在金融市场不完全和管制环境下,资本结构并不完全是企业自主决策的结果。宏观政策和资本市场供给条件,可能是中国企业资本结构是最重要的影响因素。     

甘肃省房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响研究

本文在对甘肃省房地产价格波动及区域金融稳定概念进行界定的基础上,分析了房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响机制,选取了甘肃省2002年至2011年的相关数据,构建了甘肃省区域金融稳定指标体系,并用熵值法计算出区域金融稳定综合指数,然后建立VAR模型,实证检验了房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响.研究发现：在最优滞后2期内,房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定产生一定的影响,并且二者之间呈现负相关关系,也即房地产价格波动越大,区域金融稳定性就会降低,房地产价格波动越小区域金融稳定状况越好.