A hard slog, not a leap frog: Globalization and sustainability transitions in developing Asia

How does globalization influence transitions toward more sustainable socio-technical regimes in the developing world? This paper argues that transformations of regimes, the networks and institutions governing technological and environmental practices in an industry, can be positively influenced by globalization but it depends on how global forces interact with local socio-political landscapes—the political-economic institutions, values, and regulations broadly guiding an economy and its relationship to the environment. We evaluate these relationships through a comparison of two kinds of socio-political landscapes—the neo-liberal export-led development model commonly found in the developing world and the uniquely Asian capitalist developmental state. We first show how the neo-liberal model overemphasizes the power of market forces to facilitate upgrading and more sustainable industrialization. We then argue that capitalist developmental states in East and Southeast Asia have been better able to harness global economic forces for technological and sustainability transitions through an openness to trade and investment and effective public-private institutions able to link cleaner technologies and environmental standards to production activities in firms. We buttress this argument with firm-level evidence showing the evolution of socio-technical regimes in two industries—cement and electronics. The case studies demonstrate how interactions with OECD firms can contribute to environmental technique effects provided the socio-political landscape is amenable to changes in an industry's regime. Ultimately, we find the process of transition to be complex and contingent; a hard slog not a leap frog toward a potentially more sustainable future. We close by considering the limitations on the capitalist developmental state model and with comments about what else needs to be learned about globalization's role in sustainability transitions.     

Does energy‐related aid affect emissions? Evidence from a global dataset

Donor countries have been using international aid in the field of energy for at least three decades. The stated objective of this policy is to reduce emissions and promote sustainable development in the global South. In spite of the widespread use of this policy tool, very little is known about its effect on emissions. In this paper we perform an empirical audit of the effectiveness of energy‐related aid in tackling CO₂ and SO₂ emissions. Using a global panel dataset covering 128 countries over the period 1971–2011 and estimating a parsimonious model using the Anderson and Hsiao estimator, we do not find any evidence of a systematic effect of energy‐related aid on emissions. We also find that the non‐effect is not conditional on institutional quality or level of income. Countries located in Europe and Central Asia do better than others in utilizing this aid to reduce CO₂ emissions. Our results are robust after controlling for the environmental Kuznets curve, country fixed effects, country‐specific trends, and time‐varying common shocks.     

Modern sector development: The role of exports and institutions in developing countries

A prospering modern sector is crucial for the successful long‐term development in developing countries as it provides income and job growth for large shares of society. While this idea is widely accepted, there is, perhaps surprisingly, far less analysis about the exact determinants of this economic modernization process. In this article we empirically investigate whether international trade and institutions, both much discussed in the debates on general growth and development, are particularly important for the diffusion of production in the modern sector within developing societies. In a large cross section time‐series sample, we provide robust estimation results that point to an important role of institutions and to a nonlinear impact of manufacturing exports. Our results, which are derived using a range of estimators and are ultimately less susceptible to endogeneity concerns, also provide interesting insights into the role of natural resources and official development aid.     

Evaluation Bias and Incentive Structures in Bi- and Multilateral Aid Agencies

Evaluation is generally considered as an important tool to ensure the effective use of development aid, but it is itself subject to distortions. To derive institutional conditions conducive to effective evaluation, we develop a multi‐level principal‐agent model focusing on the interests of the different actors involved in the evaluation process. The model highlights two central problems: (i) the aid agencies’ conflicting objectives of transparency and self‐legitimization, and (ii) the potential collusion between the evaluator and the project manager. Evidence for the World Bank and different German donor agencies reveals concrete institutional requirements for a reduced evaluation bias and increased transparency.     

ASIA'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE

The global economic and financial landscape has been transformed over the past decade by the growing economic size and financial power of emerging economies. The new Group of Twenty summit process, which includes the largest emerging economies, has established high‐level international policy cooperation in this new setting. This article argues that effective global economic governance will also require changes in key global organizations—such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, and the Financial Stability Board—and closer collaboration between global and regional organizations. We suggest that federalism be introduced on a global scale by creating hierarchies of global and regional organizations with overlapping ownership structures in various functional areas (as is already the case with the World Bank and regional development banks in the area of development finance). Asia could contribute to this transformation by building effective institutions to promote macroeconomic and financial stability and deepen regional trade and investment integration. Similar logic could be applied to a broader issue of providing international public goods, such as environmental and climate protection, communicable disease control, and disaster risk management. (JEL F02, F13, F33, F55, O59)     

World Trade and the Environment: Issues and Policies

This paper provides an overview of trade, environmental and related public issues and policies. It discusses the pollution problem, the recent global warming trend, the attempts of various institutions, including the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, regional, national and other organizations, to solve the global trade and environmental issues. The paper also discusses a number of basic theoretical issues and empirical findings, such as the free‐rider problem, the tragedy of the commons, the theory of second best, the relative efficacy of price and quantity control, carbon leakage, border carbon adjustments, the cap‐and‐trade system, the pollution haven hypothesis, the optimal social discount rate and the environmental Kuznets curve. Some computable general equilibrium models are reviewed and several notable World Trade Organization environmental and health‐related trade dispute cases are analysed, including the tuna–dolphin, shrimp–turtle, eco‐labelling, beef‐hormone and genetically modified organism cases.     

Relative Effectiveness of Bilateral and Multilateral Aid on Development Outcomes

Aid donors are interested in understanding whether allocating aid via bilateral or multilateral channels might be more effective for achieving development goals. We review 45 papers that empirically test the associations between bilateral and multilateral aid flows and various development outcomes including gross domestic product growth, governance indicators, human development indicators and levels of non‐aid investment flows. Findings suggest that differences between countries and regions, time periods, aid objectives, and individual donor organizations all may influence the effectiveness of aid delivered bilaterally and multilaterally. We find, however, no consistent evidence that either bilateral or multilateral aid is more effective overall.     

Aiding regional instability? The geopolitical paradox of Japanese development assistance to China

During the past decade, Japan established itself as the largest bilateral donor of development aid in the world, with more of it directed toward projects in China than any other recipient. Japan sees its aid flows to China as maintaining economic stability in East Asia, particularly as China's raw material and energy resources are articulated into regional markets. In this article, I argue that Japan's aid to China may unintentionally diminish Japan's and the East Asian region's long‐term security for two reasons. First, similar to other nations receiving such assistance, this aid may allow China to reallocate scarce capital to military modernisation. Such military modernisation may enable China to both better suppress internal dissent and carry out a more aggressive foreign policy. Second, this aid does not address the fundamental structural aspects of China's present instability. Long‐term structural instability has many sources, but the two discussed here are socio‐economic inequality (both interregional and intraregional), and sustainable production and environmental problems. Taken together these have important regional and geopolitical implications and repercussions. This article fills a gap in the existing literature on East Asian geopolitics. Namely, that by attending only to relatively short‐term corporate and perceived state interests of China and Japan, Japanese aid to China does little to ameliorate and potentially exacerbates long‐term structural social and environmental problems for China's vast majority living in rural hinterlands. The potential for internal turmoil springing from this uneven and unsustainable development inside China is the real basis for China's ‘threat’ to East Asian security. Thus what appears to make good development and geopolitical sense at first look, Japan's current aid regime with China, paradoxically may actually be the worst path to follow.     

Foreign aid and the quality of economic institutions

Identification of the causal effect that foreign aid has on the quality of institutions in recipient countries has been elusive in the aid effectiveness literature. The main reason is that aid is endogenous with respect to the development of institutions. Our paper examines the impact of foreign aid on economic freedom in the recipient countries at a disaggregated level using an innovative identifying strategy. To do so, we use recently innovated instruments for aid, exploiting the long lags between loan approval and disbursements by official creditors to developing countries. Using plausibly exogenous variations in predicted loan disbursements as instruments for actual aid, we find that foreign aid has a significant positive effect on the quality of economic institutions in recipient countries. The results are robust to alternative specifications and samples. By establishing the existence of a strong link between aid and the quality of economic institutions, we identify the main channel through which aid affects economic growth and development.     

The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighbouring countries: The case of Lebanon

In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of workers from a war‐torn economy on the economy of a neighbouring country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the labour market, the production apparatus and macroeconomic indicators. Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high‐skilled native workers, but a negative impact on the most vulnerable Lebanese workers. When aid takes the form of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labour market prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long‐term objectives. This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees are considered as temporary.     

论多边环境协定与WTO的关系

随着全球环境问题的影响范围逐渐扩张,国际社会开始关注全球环境变迁,目前各种国际环境议题开始通过协商与谈判,制订国际公约加以规范以达成环境治理目标。而WTO以贸易自由化为主要目标,它与多边环境协定之间的竞合关系成为值得深入探讨的议题。文章通过分析WTO的环保立场、WTO有关多边环境协定的谈判内容及多哈回合谈判暂停对WTO贸易与环境谈判的影响阐述WTO与多边环境保护协定的关系。     

Institutions and environmental governance: A reconceptualization

This article presents the conceptual revisions needed to extend the new institutional approach to environmental governance from its current local and international domains of application to all governance solutions, including national environmental and natural resource use policies and multi-level governance solutions that are increasingly used to address global environmental change. The article suggests that environmental governance is best understood as the establishment, reaffirmation or change of institutions to resolve conflicts over environmental resources. It also explains why the choice of these institutions is a matter of social justice rather than of efficiency. The article suggests a way to understand formal and state-centered governance solutions as forms of collective ownership not unlike common property. The article demonstrates how institutional analysis can gain resolution by looking at the functional and structural tiers, organization of governance functions, and formulation of key institutional rules as key aspects of the design of governance institutions.     

Aid,institutions and economic growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: Heterogeneous donors and heterogeneous responses

This study contributes to the aid‐effectiveness debate using panel data from 43 sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2013. Its novelty lies in assessing the intermediary role of institutions and the importance of recipient and donor heterogeneity. The long‐run growth effect of (aggregate) aid from “traditional” donors is robustly non‐positive, and the indirect effect is negative. Disaggregation reveals donor heterogeneity. Chinese aid outperforms aggregate aid from traditional donors with respect to growth; however, it has a negative institutional effect. Recipient heterogeneity is largely a short‐run phenomenon, with only a few countries showing some deviations from shared long‐run parameter sets. Comparing donor behavior suggests that the future of aid would benefit more from focusing on quality – particularly, specialization and donor alignment.     

New Economic Theories

This paper analyses some of the most important spillovers of recent developments of economic theory into environmental economics. Attention is given to the anlaysis of sustainable economic development paths, where endogenous growth models are used; the implications of environmental dumping and more generally of policies concerning global environmental issues, where new trade theories are very useful; and, the effectiveness of environmental policy instruments when markets are imperfectly competitive, where industrial organisation theory is employed. The paper does not only note recent developments in environmental economics, but also relates these to the previous environmental economics literature. Thus, it can be assessed whether new results actually improve our knowledge of crucial economic and environmental issues.     

National borders,the global economy and geopolitics: A view from Yemen

The wider geographic scales of the new interdependencies called ‘globalisation’ are not new to peripheral states such as Yemen. In the colonial and post‐colonial world sensitivity to international developments has always been important in the course of local events. What is new is the particular configuration of political and economic institutions at various levels including, critically, the national level. This paper argues that, on the one hand, the new geography of economic and political ‘globalisation’ has left Yemen with distinctly ‘old’ forms of economic integration into world markets, but that, on the other hand, regional geopolitics have opened certain opportunities for Yemen's political elite to refashion itself as a strategic geopolitical player so as to maintain international flows of military and economic aid. The end result is the continued national dominance of these same elite. ‘Globalisation’ in this sense is a national political project.     

Partner country selection between development narratives and self-interests: A new method for analysing complex donor approaches

Partner country (PC) selection lies in the centre of development policy decision-making of donor countries and institutions, and plays a significant role in shaping aid patterns. This paper proposes a comprehensive analysis contrasting donor intentions in PC selection with actual aid flows. Having analysed selected members of the Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, namely, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, we suggest that (1) donors might not only be either altruistic or self-interested but also motivated by an intention to contribute to the provision of global public goods; (2) self-interest in aid provision can be an explicitly-stated strategy, contrary to what has been argued in the majority of the literature, which often treats self-interest as a non-stated donor intention; and (3) donors' self-interested intentions do not always lead to a less development-oriented donor approach.     

The Impact of Foreign Aid Linked to Infrastructure and Pollution Abatement

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of foreign aid taking into account environmental quality. We develop a dynamic equilibrium model in which public investments in both infrastructure and pollution abatement can be co‐financed using domestic resources and international aid. We consider untied aid, aid fully tied to either infrastructure or abatement and aid equally tied to both expenditures. We find that when the extent to which agents are affected by environmental problems is taken into account, then, regardless of the chances of substitution between factors, transfers linked to both infrastructure and pollution abatement may be the best welfare‐enhancing alternative.     

经济全球化对生态环境的影响

随着世界贸易、投资自由化的逐步扩大和现代科学技术特别是信息技术的发展，经济全球化作为一种新的国际关系正在加快推进全球产业结构调整。关于贸易自由化的环境影响，自由贸易倡导者与环境主义者之间存在着分歧。事实上，贸易全球化对环境的总体影响是规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和产品效应的复杂变化的净结果。跨国公司是经济全球化的载体，有潜力在全球可持续发展中扮演正面角色。在竞争市场中，环境保护是跨国公司的一个重要考虑，但是以经济增长来为顾客和股东服务仍然是跨国公司的中心任务。跨国公司的环境管理实践应把可持续发展作为生存公式。     

The role of institutions in finance curse: Evidence from international data

This paper investigates the effect of banking sector development on economic growth in a panel of 87 countries, paying particular attention to the role of institutions in reducing the finance curse phenomenon. The dynamic generalized method-of-moments (GMM) results indicate that institutions play an important role in mediating the positive relationship between banking sector development and growth. This suggests that the marginal impact of financial development on growth depends on institutional quality. Using the four-way partition of institutions classified by Rodrik (2005), we also find that resilient market-regulating, market-stabilizing, and market-creating institutions act as mediators to the financial market in facilitating growth. The results are robust to using alternative institutions indicators, estimation strategies, and stopping the sample before the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.     

碳达峰碳中和目标导向下能源和经济的低碳转型

习近平主席在第75届联大上提出中国2030年前CO2排放达峰和2060年前实现碳中和的新气候目标,是我国统筹国内国际两个大局的战略决策。实现CO2排放达峰是实现长期碳中和目标的重要阶段性目标和时间节点。CO2排放达峰时间越早,峰值排放量越低,越有利于实现长期碳中和目标,因此要统筹碳达峰和长期碳中和的目标和措施,协调部署,强化行动。实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,需要有强有力的政策和措施保障,并成为国家现代化治理体系的重要环节。要远近统筹,进行超前部署和行动。本文建议如下:制定国家长期低碳发展战略,把长期碳中和目标纳入国家本世纪中叶社会主义现代化强国建设总体目标和战略之中;加强深度脱碳技术研发和产业化,积极应对全球碳中和导向下国际经济技术竞争;加强应对气候变化制度建设;结合打好污染防治攻坚战,发挥减污降碳协同效应。另一方面,在国内做好碳达峰、碳中和工作的同时,要积极参与并引领全球气候治理与国际合作,为共建全球生态文明和构建人类命运共同体做出中国的努力和贡献。