Bilateral Trade Agreements and the Feasibility of Multilateral Free Trade

We studied how the pursuit of bilateral free‐trade agreements (FTAs) affects the likelihood of achieving multilateral free trade. We derive and compare the stable Nash equilibria of two games of trade liberalization: in the FTA game, each country can either form an FTA with one of its trading partners or both of them or none of them, whereas in the (restricted) No FTA game, purely bilateral FTAs are not permitted. The major result is that there exist circumstances under which the freedom to pursue (discriminatory) bilateral FTAs is necessary for achieving multilateral free trade.     

Evaluation Bias and Incentive Structures in Bi- and Multilateral Aid Agencies

Evaluation is generally considered as an important tool to ensure the effective use of development aid, but it is itself subject to distortions. To derive institutional conditions conducive to effective evaluation, we develop a multi‐level principal‐agent model focusing on the interests of the different actors involved in the evaluation process. The model highlights two central problems: (i) the aid agencies’ conflicting objectives of transparency and self‐legitimization, and (ii) the potential collusion between the evaluator and the project manager. Evidence for the World Bank and different German donor agencies reveals concrete institutional requirements for a reduced evaluation bias and increased transparency.     

Remittances and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid

We argue that donors could improve the effectiveness of foreign aid by pursuing complementary and coherent non‐aid policies. In particular, we hypothesize that aid has stronger growth effects if recipients receive more aid from donors who allow for (temporary) worker mobility and (more permanent) migration. We focus on overall remittances paid by the donor countries to proxy for worker mobility and migration. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that higher remittances paid by donor countries strengthen the growth effects of foreign aid.     

Development Aid to Agriculture and Economic Growth

The link between foreign aid and economic growth has been a controversial issue with no strong consensus so far. This paper argues that a possible reason why some studies may conclude that aid is ineffective in promoting economic growth might be that not all aid is given for development purposes (i.e. aid given for strategic considerations, humanitarian reasons or emergency relief). This study classifies foreign aid into four subcategories: agricultural aid, social infrastructure aid, investment aid, and non‐investment aid. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique on a Barro type growth regression with panel data from the aid recipient economies, this paper finds that when aid is directed to the agricultural sector of the developing countries, it is positively and significantly related to growth and can affect economic growth in the short run.     

The Relative Effectiveness of Economics Instruction for Teachers and College Students

Walstad reports on a master of instruction program for teachers of pre-college students. Comparisons between different groups of students (i.e., teachers in the program, regular intermediate theory students, …) indicate that the program appeared to meet its cognitive and attitudinal objectives. The study, however, raises serious questions about the effectiveness of instruction at the intermediate level and about the economic understanding of pre-college economics teachers (less than or equal to the college principles students included in the study).     

REDD+ as Result‐based Aid: General Lessons and Bilateral Agreements of Norway

The initiative known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) officially became part of the international climate agenda in 2007. At that time, REDD+ was an idea regarding payment to countries (and possibly also projects) for reducing emission from forests, with funding primarily from carbon markets. The initiative has since become multi‐objective in nature; the policy focus has changed from a payments for environmental services (PES) approach to broader policies, and international funding primarily originates from development aid budgets. This “aidification” of REDD+ has made the program similar to previous efforts using conditional or results‐based aid (RBA). However, the experience of RBA in other sectors has scarcely been addressed in the REDD+ debate. The alleged advantages of RBA are poorly backed by empirical research. This paper reviews the primary challenges in designing and implementing a system of RBA, namely, donor spending pressure, performance criteria, reference levels, risk sharing, and funding credibility. It then reviews the four partially performance‐based, bilateral REDD+ agreements that Norway has entered with Tanzania, Brazil, Guyana, and Indonesia. These agreements and the aid experience provide valuable lessons for the design and implementation of future REDD+ mechanisms.     

Aid, Taxation and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

External aid donors have gradually shifted from a benign view of the African state to one that presumes a conflict of interest between the state and its own private sector. What are the implications of this diagnosis for the design of aid programs? We develop a model that locates slow growth in the overly narrow interests of a political elite. We study the impact of aid on policy choice and private investment and the role of conditionality in securing the gains from aid. The results capture key features of the current diagnosis while underscoring the need for more sophisticated treatments of domestic political institutions, institutional change, and donor motivations.     

国际多边环境协议与中国外贸的可持续发展

2001年11月多哈世界贸易组织部长级会议上,一致同意关于贸易与环境进行谈判。世界范围的环境保护使得中国外贸可持续发展面临的环保压力加剧。新一轮谈判要在2005年1月1日前结束,但关贸总协议/世界贸易组织仍没有专门的环境政策。发展中国家应积极明确多哈宣言对环境议程的授权,积极协调本国的贸易利益与环境利益,启动发展中国家的“贸易与环境问题”议程,对后期谈判和产业发展制订指导性框架。     

Need,Merit and Politics in Multilateral Aid Allocation: A District‐level Analysis of World Bank Projects in India

We assess the targeting of foreign aid within recipient countries by employing Poisson estimations on the determinants of the World Bank's allocation of project aid at the district level in India. The evidence of needs‐based location choices is very weak as long as the poverty orientation of overall commitments is taken as the yardstick. It is only for some sectors that we find stronger indications of needs‐based allocation when combining sector‐specific commitments with corresponding measures of need. The evidence for a merit‐based allocation of World Bank aid is even weaker. We typically do not find evidence that aid allocation is affected by political patronage at the state or district level. However, the World Bank prefers districts where foreign direct investors may benefit from projects related to infrastructure.     

The Relative Effectiveness of Three Methods of Teaching Principles of Economics

Research on the impact of learning style preferences is very rare in economic education. This article reports the results of a project in which the student's preferred learning style and the instructor's teaching style were included as variables in a regression model. Those favoring independent styles achieved significantly more than students favoring dependent styles. Changes in student attitudes towards economics were also taken into account. The researchers assert that the addition of these variables also “greatly increases the power of the model to explain variation in student achievement and attitudes concerning economics.”     

区域金融发展与区域经济增长相关性研究

金融发展与经济增长之间相互促进、相互作用。区域金融理论研究金融发展与经济增长在空间上的内生作用机制。运用区域经济理论和金融发展理论进行分析,发现区域金融发展与区域经济增长之间也是一种密切联系的互动关系。     

Bilateral Donors’ Interest vs. Recipients’ Development Motives in Aid Allocation: Do All Donors Behave the Same?

I provide an overall empirical assessment of the motivations of ODA granted by rich countries to developing countries, as revealed by aid allocation behaviors. Aid motives combine self‐interested and altruistic objectives. I use a three‐dimensional panel dataset, combining the donor, recipient and time dimensions, which shows a lot of heterogeneity in donor behavior. Thanks to the width of this dataset, I can test differences of parameters among donors and, in particular, compare their degrees of altruism. Switzerland, Austria, Ireland and most Nordic countries are among the most altruistic. Australia, France, Italy, and to some extent Japan and the United States are among the most egoistic.     

基于DEA的中国电力改革绩效相对有效性评价

我国电力改革已历时近二十年,通过采用数据包络分析(DEA)方法中的两个模型:C2R模型和C2GS2模型,对我国电力在1981￣2001年间的改革绩效进行评价,评价结果发现在此期间我国电力改革的相对规模有效性与相对技术有效性均变化不大,由此认为,近二十年的我国电力改革绩效不明显。     

多边贸易框架下国际贸易摩擦的发展趋势

1995年,世界贸易组织(WTO)取代关税与贸易总协定(GATT)成为多边贸易谈判与贸易磋商机构。WTO的成立,极大促进了全球贸易自由化的发展。但贸易自由化也引起世界市场竞争的激化,贸易自由化带来的国家利益与要素收入的重新分配,导致各国间贸易关系的紧张。文章分析WTO成立后国际贸易摩擦的趋势。     

Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on Prices*

To analyze the effects of simultaneous tariff reductions by multiple importing countries on prices, we construct a simple three‐country model where a good is produced by a monopolist with nonconstant marginal cost and imported by two countries. We compare two representative tariff‐reduction formulas: the “fixed‐amount” and the “uniform percentage” reductions. The uniform percentage reductions may increase the consumer price in the importing country, whose initial tariff is lower. Thus, importing countries with relatively low tariffs may prefer a bilateral trade agreement to a multilateral one to ensure consumer gains.     

Intersectoral Spillovers,Relative Prices and Development Traps

Why is the economic growth rate so low in poor countries? This paper offers an explanation by using a simple two‐sector AK growth model with intersectoral linkages and high relative prices of intermediate goods. Intersectoral linkages lead to two balanced growth paths (BGPs). The high‐growth BGP is a source. The low‐growth BGP is a sink because it has a small final goods sector, small intersectoral spillovers from the final goods sector to the intermediate goods sector, and small marginal products in the intermediate goods sector, yielding high relative prices of intermediate goods. The low‐growth BGP is an attractor and thus development trap. To produce a big push effect, this paper analyzes the first‐best policy and finds that a subsidy to own consumption and a provision of public goods to the final goods sector can internalize the external effect and render the low‐growth BGP infeasible. As a result, there is only the high‐growth BGP.     

GATT/WTO多边贸易制度下的谈判集团:起源、发展及挑战

GATT时代,多边贸易谈判集团已经兴起,以农业市场自由化为目标的凯恩斯集团是第一个稳定的并对谈判产生实质影响的集团。WTO成立后尤其是多哈回合开启后,谈判集团繁荣发展,它们是发展中国家成员提升整体谈判实力的有效工具。但是目前谈判集团存在制度上和自身稳定性等方面的挑战。虽然WTO最不发达国家委员会、区域贸易协定条款和秘书处等承认和支持成员集团,但都没有赋予其作为谈判工具的法律地位。谈判集团本身的稳定性也受到内部利益异质性和外部分裂力量等因素的影响。