LABOR EARNINGS AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME MOBILITY IN REUNIFIED GERMANY: A COMPARISON OF THE EASTERN AND WESTERN STATES

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we compare income mobility of persons from the eastern and western states of Germany between 1990 and 1995. We consider income mobility between consecutive years and between the first and the final year of this time period. We find that gross individual labor income mobility was much higher in the east than in the west during the first years after reunification, but that this difference has become much smaller until 1995. Changing to measures that reflect economic well-being more accurately, we observe that gross equivalent labor income mobility and net equivalent income mobility initially were also much higher in the eastern states than in the western states, but converged over time as well. This convergence has been particularly strong for net equivalent income mobility, suggesting that the social protection system has greatly reduced mobility risks associated with the transformation process in the eastern states of Germany.     

经济增长、物价变动对农村居民收入影响探析

基于1984-2013年全国农业生产总值、农村居民消费价格指数和农村居民家庭人均纯收入数据,研究农村经济、物价变动对农村居民收入的影响。研究表明:长期来看,三者之间存在长期均衡关系。这说明农村经济的增长会提高农村居民收入,物价的变化则会反向影响农村居民收入。而短期来看,物价的上涨会增加农村居民的人均纯收入,农村经济的增长则不会对农村居民收入有明显的影响作用。     

FORECASTING FDI EQUITY INCOME FOR THE DANISH BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Late and significant revisions are often observed in FDI equity income in many countries, hampering the quality of preliminary balance of payments statistics. We test a range of models on Danish data and find that forecasts for FDI equity income based on a combination of past profitability and consensus data for changes in expected private consumption growth outperform forecasts solely based on historical profitability. When the refined models are applied to the Danish balance of payments, the largest improvements are observed for outward and inward FDI separately. Revisions of net FDI equity income only decrease marginally because the significant revisions in gross terms resulting from the historical models have a tendency to (partly) cancel out each other on a net basis.     

A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009

The academic literature has focused largely on testing for long-run fiscal sustainability. In this exercise we formulate a flexible regression model that can be used to assess the sustainability of a more recent build-up of fiscal deficits and debt that would be of major concern to policy makers. The analysis of US data shows that, after adjusting for some fundamentals, the gross Federal debt–income ratio has been growing at an unsustainable rate of 4 % per year since 2007. The net debt–income ratio does not show such a significant trend. Since not all government assets are readily available to reduce debt, significant positive trends in the gross debt–income ratio calls for policy actions.     

REASONS FOR PREFERRING NET TO GROSS FIGURES OF INCOME AND PRODUCT (AND VICE VERSA)

For the first time, a systematic discussion is presented of the choice between gross and net national accounting figures of value added, product and income for alternative purposes. Some traditional arguments for preferring gross to net figures are challenged and several historical reasons are given for the present popularity of gross figures. The quantitative importance of the issue (“what does it matter in practice?”) is also assessed.     

Mark-up Pricing and the Forward Shifting of the Corporate Income Tax

Abstract
The framework used to test the hypothesis of forward income tax shifting is based on a simple mark-up pricing model and follows the methodology of Beath (1979). In this framework indications of forward tax shifting are inferred if the gross mark-up varies in order to achieve a targeted net of tax mark-up. Empirical results derived support the hypothesis and suggest significant forward corporate income tax shifting in Australian manufacturing companies over the data period 1968 to 1990.     

CAN HOUSEHOLDS AND WELFARE STATES MITIGATE RISING EARNINGS INSTABILITY?

We compare the evolution of earnings instability in Germany and the United Kingdom, two countries which stand for different types of welfare states. Deploying data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we estimate permanent and transitory variances of male income over the period 1984–2009 and 1991–2006, respectively. Studies in this literature generally use individual labor earnings. To uncover the role of welfare state and households in smoothening earnings shocks, we compute different income concepts ranging from gross earnings to net equivalent household income. We find evidence that the overall inequality of earnings in Germany and the United Kingdom has been rising throughout the period due to both higher permanent earnings inequality and higher earnings volatility. However, taking institutions of the welfare state and risk‐sharing households into account, we find that the volatility of net household income has remained fairly stable. Furthermore, redistribution and risk insurance provided by the welfare state is more pronounced in Germany than in the United Kingdom.     

THE STOCK OF CONSUMER DURABLES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: NEW ESTIMATES 1948–95

A modified version of the perpetual inventory model is applied to new data on consumers' expenditure in the United Kingdom to establish estimates of that part of personal sector wealth represented by the stock of consumer durables. Current and constant price estimates are provided at an aggregate and disaggregate level for the gross and net stock and for the imputed consumption income over the period 1948–95. The accuracy and consistency of the estimates are evaluated in the context of other approaches.     

Income Inequality in Australia in an International Comparative Perspective

Earlier comparative work on income distribution has tended to suggest that Australia is characterised by less income inequality than other industrialised economies. Concerns about the quality of the Australian data used in such comparisons have led to the need for more detailed assessment of the situation. The Luxembourg Income Study has been a focus for this work by bringing together microdata sets for a range of countries and reorganising them to conform to standardised concepts and definitions. This paper builds on earlier work undertaken as part of the Luxembourg Income Study by including Australia in an international comparative analysis of income distribution and redistribution. The Australian data are those from the 1981–82 Income and Housing Survey, with income tax imputed onto the data file. Results are presented for the gross and net income distributions between both families and individuals in seven countries. A common set of equivalence scales is also used to adjust for differing family needs. The results indicate that, using several summary measures of inequality, the distribution of income in Australia is less equal than in four of the other six countries studied. Earlier research which placed Australia high on the international league table of income equality is thus not confirmed by the results.     

New estimates of labour supply elasticities for married women in Canada 1996–2005

In this article, we estimate income and substitution labour supply and participation elasticities for Canadian married women using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1996–2005. We use the Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) and detailed information on the structure of income at the household level to compute the marginal tax rates faced by each individual. We then use these marginal tax rates to compute net own-wage, spouse-wage, and nonlabour income. We show how the magnitude of the estimated elasticities varies depending on whether net or gross wages and income are used in the estimation procedure, and quantify biases caused by using average tax rates instead of marginal tax rates. Finally, because marginal tax rates vary significantly over the sample, we use quantile regressions to compare elasticities at different points of the hours distribution. Overall, our results show that public policies now have, on average, less scope for influencing hours of work than 10 years ago. However, the quantile results show that wives working fewer hours per week are more sensitive to changes in their own or spouses’ wages.     

Estimates of Capital Stock and Capital/Output Coefficients by Industries: Korea (1953–86)

This paper constructs a polynomial-benchmark model to estimate gross and net capital stocks by explicity estimating implicit retirement rates and depreciation rates. The model is applied to Korean data (1953–86) where such data as national wealth survey, national income accounts and industrial census are available. There alternative series of capital stock estimates are generated and compared with previous estimates. It is shown that the use of a pure perpetual-inventory model or a benchmark-year method alone may introduce a significant bias in the measurement of capital stocks for developing economies.     

Net Wage Illusion in a Real‐Effort Experiment*

In a controlled laboratory experiment, subjects had to fold letters in order to earn money. While the net income per letter was the same in the three treatments, the gross income varied and the tax rate was 0, 25, and 50 percent. Although work incentives should be the same in all treatments, subjects worked harder and longer when they were taxed. We conclude that this is because of a net wage illusion effect. The existence of this effect demonstrates that not only are the tax rate and the tax base of importance for work incentives, but the perception of a tax is also important.     

Do Multinational Enterprises Contribute to Convergence or Divergence? A Disaggregated Analysis of US FDI*

It is widely held that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on economic growth. To test this hypothesis, we perform convergence regressions derived from a theoretical model on the impact of FDI on endogenous technological change in small economies. The model includes FDI externalities that enhance growth, but also shows that FDI can crowd out host country income and reduce local innovation. The empirical analysis employs disaggregated US data for various FDI‐related activities—in addition to the conventionally used aggregate FDI stocks and flows. We estimate the net FDI impact on the convergence rate of per‐capita income to US levels, controlling for human development, financial development, and trade. We find that FDI accelerates convergence for high‐income countries only, otherwise slowing it down.     

A Note on the New Rule for the Current Account

In this note, we show that the two main concerns against the new rule for the current account are flawed. The new rule states that the impact of a transitory income shock on the current account is given by the savings generated by the shock multiplied by the ratio of the net foreign asset position to domestic wealth. First, we adapt the new rule to distinguish between gross and net foreign asset positions. Second, we demonstrate that the results for the new rule are driven neither by an accounting‐based “approximate” regression nor a steady state.     

HOUSEHOLD AND ENTERPRISE SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION IN THE UNITED STATES: A MARKET TRANSACTIONS VIEW

Contrary to conventional macro theory, it is not the consumption function in terms of either the permanent income or the life-cycle theory of saving that has furnished the saving for enterprise capital formation in the United States. Household sector accounts indicate that household gross saving, correctly measured, did not exceed household gross capital formation in the United States over the period since 1947. Furthermore, historical data on enterprise saving and capital formation in the United States, and cross-section tax return data of U.S. corporations indicate that the gross saving for many enterprise sectors has been equal to or greater than their gross capital formation. There are exceptions, however: these same sources indicate that public utilities have borrowed substantially to finance their capital formation. Finally, it is argued that employer pension and insurance reserves held by financial institutions for future benefit payments represent retained income of a nature similar to undistributed profits, and that these constitute a source of saving in the economy.     

Top Income Adjustments and Inequality: An Investigation of the EU-SILC†

This paper provides a novel assessment of how the World Inequality Database (WID) top income adjustment applied by Blanchet, Chancel, and Gethin (2021) to European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data for 26 countries over 2003–2017 for Distributional National Accounts purposes affects inequality in equivalized gross and disposable household income. On average, the Gini is increased by around 2.4 points for both gross and disposable income, with notable differences across countries but limited impact on trends. EU-SILC countries that rely on administrative register data see relatively small effects on inequality. Comparing with two other recent studies, differences in impacts on measured inequality depend less on the adjustment method and more on whether external data sources are used.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 1957–76*

This article describes what happens to income distribution during intensive changes in gross domestic product due to external market conditions. It deals specifically with an open market petroleum-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago, and reviews changes in national product and income levels and the income distribution pattern over the twenty year period 1957–76. The paper argues that during the period characterized by subperiods of steady growth and rapid growth in GDP (the latter associated with the petroleum price rise), income inequality increased between 1957 and 1972 and then decreased in the post petroleum-price-rise period of rapid growth 1973–76. While the effect of intensive changes in national product did trickle down to the lower income groups, income inequality in 1975–76 was greater than that existing in 1957–58. An examination of the spatial, occupational and temporal aspect of the distribution pattern points towards the elimination of structural dualism in the economy as the surest path towards greater income equality in Trinidad and Tobago.     

SUGGESTIONS FOR TREATMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS—WITH ILLUSTRATIONS FROM INDIAN DATA*

After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling. To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.