Intergenerational Income Persistence in Urban China

Intergenerational income elasticities are estimated using samples for urban China (covering many cities) for the years 1995 and 2002 and compared with results from other studies. We find that the income relation between the pairs—sons and fathers, sons and mothers, and daughters and mothers—are in 2002 all similar in magnitude. In contrast the relation between daughters' and fathers' income is weaker. The income relationship between offspring and mothers was weaker in 1995 than in 2002. Our preferred estimates of income persistence for the son/father pairs of 0.47 for 1995 and 0.53 for 2002 are higher than those which have been reported in the literature for several high‐income countries with large welfare states. The strength of the income link between sons and fathers in urban China appears to be not very different from what has been reported for countries such as Brazil, Chile, and the U.S.     

Intergenerational Earnings and Income Mobility in Spain

This paper contributes to the large number of studies on intergenerational earnings and income mobility by providing new evidence for Spain. Since there are no Spanish surveys covering long‐term information on both children and their fathers' income or earnings, we deal with this selection problem using the two‐sample two‐stage least squares estimator. We find that intergenerational mobility in Spain is similar to that in France, lower than in the Nordic countries and Britain, and higher than in Italy and the United States. Furthermore, we use the Chadwick and Solon approach to explore intergenerational mobility in the case of daughters and we find similar results by gender.     

代际流动约束下生育率与收入不平等关系的国际检验

收入不平等问题和人口生育率过低问题是当下中国面临的两大难题,但目前理论界关于人口因素与收入不平等关系的研究,很少从生育率视角来考察以及考虑代际收入流动在其中的作用.文章从理论与经验两个方面来考察生育率对收入不平等的影响,理论模型表明:在关于代际收入流动的假设下,一个经济体中生育率的提高会使穷人比重提高,进而拉大收入不平等.进一步地,文章利用1970-2011年76个国家(地区)面板数据的经验研究发现:(1)总和生育率的提高会拉大收入不平等,如果每个妇女平均多生育一个孩子,将会使基尼系数增加0.025;(2)以出生率作为总和生育率替代指标的实证结果与基准结果基本一致,这说明不同生育率测算指标高度相关且可相互替代;(3)对于代际收入流动弹性越高、收入水平越低或生育率越高的国家(地区),其生育率提高对收入不平等的拉大作用越大.文章关于生育率对收入不平等影响的作用机制和异质性特征的考察,对于我国如何在实施"全面二孩"政策下寻求应对严峻的收入分配问题之策提供了国际经验和启示.     

Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Rural China

The economic literature has argued for a long time that income mobility could attenuate the degree of cross-sectional inequality by offering people opportunities to improve their socio-economic position. Using the longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1989 to 2011, we measure income mobility as the degree to which longer-term incomes are distributed more or less equally than yearly income. Five main results are emphasized. First, there is strong income mobility in rural China that partly offsets yearly income inequality. Second, income mobility has decreased since the 2000s, indicating that income distribution is becoming more rigid. Third, mobility is mainly associated with transitory income fluctuations, particularly in the two tails of the distribution. Fourth, income mobility has an equalizing effect on income distribution. Fifth, we show that non-agricultural income mobility has substantially increased over the period and that its equalizing nature has also recently increased. While the development of the non-agriculture sector in rural China was a crucial factor in explaining the increase in rural inequality until the mid-2000s, we suggest that the large-scale generalisation of such non-agricultural opportunities partly accounts for the decline in rural inequality observed since the mid-2000s.     

Mobility in China

The evidence on rank and income mobility in China reveals an important change around the year 2000. Using panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey we show that rank mobility fell markedly from the decade immediately preceding the millennium to the decade immediately following: in this respect China is becoming noticeably more rigid. By contrast income mobility has carried on increasing; so has income inequality. The simultaneous increase in rigidity and inequality presents China with a challenging policy problem.     

Mobility of Top Incomes in Germany

I analyze German top income mobility using micro‐level panel data of personal income tax returns which are highly representative for top income taxpayers for the years 2001–06. Top income mobility is assessed in three dimensions: (i) persistence in top income fractiles and its stability over time, (ii) measures of individual mobility that are not dependent on the fractile size: the degree of mobility between equally sized groups and mobility in ranks, and (iii) mobility's impact on top income shares. Persistence in top income fractiles is comparatively high and fairly stable across the analyzed period. Top income recipients are less prone to downward mobility and see less variation in annual ranks than less rich tax units. Mobility's impact on income concentration is moderate. The top percentile's share is reduced by roughly 5 percent over six years.     

教育融资体制对代际流动性与不平等程度的动态影响：基于OL G模型的分析

传统的代际流动性研究并没有对代际流动性的短期值和长期值作有效区分,也未考虑人力资本形成中的不确定性,因而“代际流动性越高则不平等程度越低”这一分析结论并未在中国的现实中呈现。文章据此通过构建一个代际交叠模型比较分析了公共教育体制和市场教育体制下的代际流动性。模型动态分析发现：(1)公共教育体制下的不平等程度的长期值比市场教育体制下更低。(2)代际流动性短期值的升高并不总是伴随着不平等程度的下降,当社会受到某种剧烈冲击时可能发生两者同升同降的情况。(3)政府进行激进式的教育体制改革会使人力资本收敛速率发生跃升,并且使不平等程度的短期值和长期值都增大,而代际流动性则会在突降后在逐渐收敛到新的更低的稳态值。(4)人力资本积累不确定性参数值反映了个体不可观测的技能或先天禀赋,是影响代际流动性和不平等程度的重要因素。不确定性的突然上升会使不平等程度的短期值迅速上升,并且会使不平等程度的长期值达到新的高位,虽然代际流动性短期值也会迅速上升,但依旧会逐渐收敛到以前的稳态值不变。文章的研究有益于厘清代际流动性与不平等程度的复杂关系,也能为相关实证研究提供参考。     

Tuition Fees for Higher Education and Intergenerational Mobility in China

This paper studies the impact of an increase in higher education tuition on intergenerational mobility in China. We develop a theoretical model for the parental decision about the investment on education of children to illustrate the impact from the perspective of borrowing constraint. We consider the Chinese college tuition and subsidy reform around 1986 as a quasi-natural experiment for identifying the policy effect of the reform on intergenerational educational mobility by using the data from the census of 2000 and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). We find that an increase in the education burden induced by the reform of college tuition has reduced intergenerational educational mobility, and it is more noticeable in regions with a relatively higher increment in the tuition fee. Our results are robust with consideration of the co-residence bias, government investment in elementary education, and the higher education expansion.     

中国贫困代际传递及动态趋势实证研究

文章运用CHNS调查数据,对城乡居民家庭贫困代际传递及动态趋势进行了研究。静态分析表明:农村贫困代际传递机会要明显大于城市,且城乡差距明显;个体行业差异显著影响个体贫困发生机会,但父辈行业差异对子代贫困发生机会的代际影响不明显,健康、教育降低子代贫困作用巨大,同等条件下女性贫困发生机会要高于男性,贫困发生机会与年龄呈"U"关系。动态分析表明:虽然中国整体面的贫困水平逐年下降,但贫困代际传递机会基本呈上升趋势;农村贫困代际传递机会大于城市;城乡子代贫困机会差距自20世纪90年代以来在拉大。     

Parental Wealth and the Black–White Mobility Gap in the U.S.

Utilizing longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), this paper examines the relationship between parental wealth and intergenerational income mobility for black and white families. I find that total parental wealth is positively associated with upward mobility for low‐income white families, but is not associated with reduced likelihood of downward mobility for white families from the top half of the income distribution. Conversely, I find that total parental wealth does not have the same positive association for low‐income black families, while home ownership may have negative associations with the likelihood of upward mobility for these families. However, for black families from the top half of the income distribution, home equity is associated with a decreased likelihood of downward mobility, suggesting a heterogeneous relationship between home ownership and mobility for black families.     

子女教育、代际支持与家庭贫困的变动

子女教育是影响农村家庭贫困变动的一个重要因素。通过对14省区609户农村家庭调查结果的分析,子女接受教育程度越高,自身一代家庭摆脱贫困的比例越高,并且能传承下代家庭使其免受贫困;家庭贫困代际变动的断裂点为15年(大专教育)。     

Ordinal Variables and the Measurement of Upward and Downward Intergenerational Educational Mobility in European Countries

This article proposes a new approach to the measurement of intergenerational mobility in education. Borrowing the concept of inequality-sensitive and additive achievement measure axiomatically developed by Apouey et al., we derive new indices of upward, downward, and total mobility, using a “movement approach.” It turns out that the Prais-Bibby and Bartholomew mobility indices are particular cases of the mobility indices we introduce. We then present an empirical illustration based on the 2016 European Social Survey. Particular attention is given to within country differences between fathers to children and mothers to children educational mobility. When comparing two countries, we also make a distinction between gross and net mobility, the latter referring to the case where country differences in the educational structure of parents and children are neutralized.     

Household Income Inequality and Income Mobility: Implications Towards Equalizing Longer-Term Incomes in India

This paper addresses three important questions. First, what are the trends, levels and sources of income inequality in India? Second, how have been the patterns of income mobility? And finally, exploring the relationship between income mobility and income inequality in the context of India. Results, based on recent India Human Development Survey (IHDS) longitudinal data, advocate that not only is income inequality very high, nonetheless, it has increased – mainly attributable to different income sources – in India. The paper also focused on whether or not this income mobility equalizes longer-term incomes. Results suggest income mobility has resulted in-albeit not robust- equalizing longer-term incomes. Thus, based on imperative findings, the paper suggests, the nature of longer-term well-being is crucial to designing policy interventions to effectively tackle inequality and in this context, economic mobility can be seen as an avenue to long-term equality.     

Intergenerational transmission of education in China: New evidence from the Chinese Cultural Revolution

This paper estimates the effect of parental education on children's education by using instruments generated by the Chinese Cultural Revolution, and further explores the mechanisms of this causal relationship. Several important findings stand out from our empirical analyses. We find a larger intergenerational persistence in education for higher level in urban areas but for a lower level of education in rural areas. The main results from instrumental variable estimation show that the nurture effect is larger and more significant for fathers than for mothers. A deeper investigation of the mechanism behind this nurture effect informs us that a father's education passes on to his children's education partly through the income channel. Another notable finding is that even after controlling for fathers’ income, parental education still has a significantly positive effect on children's education through the nurture effect. This indicates that beyond the income channel, there may exist other channels such as better home environment, which deserve to be explored in future research.     

A New Look at Intergenerational Mobility in Germany Compared to the U.S

Motivated by contradictory evidence on intergenerational mobility in Germany, I present a cross‐country comparison of Germany and the U.S., reassessing the question of whether intergenerational mobility is higher in Germany than in the U.S. I can reproduce the standard result from the literature, which states that the German intergenerational elasticity estimates are lower than those for the U.S. However, based on highly comparable data, even a reasonable degree of variation in the sampling rules leads to similar estimates in both countries. I find no evidence for non‐linearities along the fathers' earnings distribution. In contrast, the analysis shows that mobility is higher for the sons at the lowest quartile of the sons' earnings distribution in both countries. In Germany this result is mainly driven by a high downward mobility of sons with fathers in the upper middle part of the earnings distribution. The corresponding pattern is clearly less pronounced in the U.S.     

Intergenerational Wealth Mobility in France, 19th and 20th Century

This paper examines intergenerational wealth mobility between fathers and children in France between 1848 and 1960. Considering wealth mobility in the long run requires taking into account not only positional mobility (that is, how families move within a given distribution of wealth), but also structural mobility induced by changes in the distribution of wealth. Such changes are related to two structural phenomena: in the nineteenth century, the rising number of individuals leaving no estate at death and, after World War I, the decline in the number of the very rich who could live off their wealth. The paper studies the movements between these groups and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of wealth, taking into account the persistence at the bottom and at the top.     

代际间的职业流动与收入流动——来自中国城乡家庭的经验研究

本文通过对中国城乡家庭代际间的职业流动与收入流动进行实证研究,得出以下结论:(1)城镇家庭子女的职业随其职业生涯的发展有向父辈职业"回归"的趋势,而农村家庭中父代从事非农职业有助于子女实现职业的向上流动。(2)子女受教育程度的提高有利于代际间职业的向上流动,但其父辈的社会经济特征也对代际间的职业传承和流动有显著的影响。(3)代际之间职业的传承在一定程度上阻碍了代际间的收入流动,代际职业传承对高收入家庭的代际收入弹性影响更强。     

Intergenerational Mobility in the United States and Great Britain: A Comparative Study of Parent–Child Pathways

We build on cross‐national research to examine the relationships underlying estimates of relative intergenerational mobility in the United States and Great Britain using harmonized longitudinal data and focusing on men. We examine several pathways by which parental status is related to offspring status, including education, labor market attachment, occupation, marital status, and health, and perform several sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our results. We decompose differences between the two nations into that part attributable to the strength of the relationship between parental income and the child's characteristics and the labor market return to those child characteristics. We find that the relationships underlying these intergenerational linkages differ in systematic ways between the two nations. In the United States, primarily because of the higher returns to education and skills, the pathway through offspring education is relatively more important than it is in Great Britain; by contrast, in Great Britain the occupation pathway forms the primary channel of intergenerational persistence.     

户籍门槛、流动性差异与地区收入差距

按学历、技能设置的落户条件在一定程度上强化了不同人力资本禀赋劳动力的流动性差异,这种流动性差异深刻的影响着人力资本的区域间分布和现代部门产业的空间格局,从而为解释地区收入差距的形成与扩大提供了新的视角。本文将户籍门槛变量引入新经济地理模型,并利用数值模拟技术分析在不同水平的户籍门槛、贸易成本、人力资本份额下,不同技能劳动力的空间选择及地区收入差距变动。研究结果表明,需求与供给效应的彼此强化使得低技能劳动力与高技能劳动力在同一区域聚集,但因技能而设置的户籍门槛作为分散力阻碍了低技能劳动力的空间聚集过程。伴随区域一体化推进,贸易成本不断降低,高技能劳动力将在发达地区高度集聚,而如果户籍门槛保持不变,低技能劳动力将均匀地分布在两个区域。高技能劳动力的地理集中是导致地区收入差距持续扩大的主要原因,降低贸易成本能够有效缩小地区收入差距,而降低户籍门槛或提高人力资本份额均使地区差距变得更大。本文进一步回顾了改革开放以来中国出现的劳动力回流现象、人力资本的迁移趋势、以及改革开放以来地区收入差距的收敛和发散趋势,发现经验数据与理论命题的结论基本相符。