Global Distortions to Agricultural Markets: Indicators of Trade and Welfare Impacts, 1960 to 2007

Despite recent reforms, world agricultural markets remain highly distorted by government policies. Traditional indicators of those price distortions such as producer and consumer support estimates (PSEs and CSEs) can be poor guides to the policies' economic effects. Recent theoretical literature provides scalar index numbers of trade‐ and welfare‐reducing effects of price and trade policies which this paper builds on to develop more‐satisfactory indexes that can be generated using no more than the data used to generate PSEs and CSEs. We then exploit a new Agricultural Distortion database to provide time‐series estimates of index numbers for 75 developing and high‐income countries over the past half‐century.     

全球公共产品与多边贸易体制改革

全球化的发展使得公共产品的提供超出了民族国家的管辖范畴,以多边协调机制为基础的全球公共产品供应体制随之产生。以GATT/WTO为核心的多边贸易体制提供了与贸易有关的全球公共产品。然而多边贸易体制在全球公共产品的供应中,存在着供给与需求不符、成员受益不均、供应机制缺乏民主等问题。多边贸易体制改革应以发展为导向,保障发展中国家的权利,满足发展中国家对全球公共产品的需求。     

Second-Best Linkages and the Gains from Global Reform of Manufactures Trade

The Uruguay Round's built-in agenda for future WTO negotiations omitted further liberalization in manufactures, yet this paper shows that there are large potential gains to be had from such tariff cuts, especially in the developing countries. In order to fully estimate the benefits of adding industrial products to a future multilateral trade round, we need to take into account the levels of protection in other sectors—most notably agriculture and services—in which many trade flows are highly distorted. This paper examines the nature of the second-best linkages among sectors using a balance-of-trade function approach. The importance of these linkages is evaluated using a numerical general equilibrium model. It is found that, in most cases, the second-best spillovers do not greatly affect the results, implying that the estimated gains from manufacturing reforms will be largely independent of their sequencing. However, in a few regions, most notably the EU, the second-best effects play a significant role.     

Oligopsony Distortions and Welfare Implications of Trade*

While imperfect competition in the output market has garnered extensive focus in the new trade theory literature, input market imperfection has received considerably less attention. Since market power in input purchase has been growing in recent years, it is worth examining the welfare implications of trade arising from oligopsony power. We develop a model consisting of two final goods, one intermediate good, and two primary factors (capital and labor). One final good and the intermediate good employ primary factors, whereas the other final good uses labor and the intermediate input. All markets operate under perfect competition except for the intermediate input, which is oligopsonistic. Using this model, we show that oligopsony can lead to some anomalies such as an increase in the oligopsony output, reward to the intensive‐factor in the oligopsony sector, national welfare, and deterioration of terms of trade, but it always decreases the reward to the intermediate input.     

Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession

This study examines China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession commitments and assesses their implications for China and the world using a model reflecting the importance of duty-free intermediate inputs in China's exports. The WTO agreement built on earlier reforms that introduced competition into the trade regime, eliminated nontariff barriers and exchange rate overvaluation, and reduced tariffs. The reforms associated with accession were conservatively estimated to increase global real incomes by $74 billion per year, with $29 billion accruing to China and the remainder primarily to those countries trading directly with China. Some lower-income developing countries faced greater competition from China in third markets.     

The Optimal Distribution of Pollution Rights in the Presence of Political Distortions

A critical issue in designing a system of tradable emission permits concerns the distribution of the initial pollution rights. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the initial rights should be optimally set, when the determination of the number of tradable permits is subject to the influence of interest groups. According to the Coase theorem, in the case where there are low transaction costs, the assignment of the initial rights does not affect the efficiency of the final resource allocation. In the presence of political pressure, we show that the distribution of the initial rights has a significant effect on social welfare. In contrast to the conventional results, we find that grandfathered permits may be more efficient than auctioned permits, even after taking into consideration the revenue-recycling effect.      

Optimal Differentiation of International Environmental Taxes in the Presence of National Labor Market Distortions

We explore the implication of the `doubledividend' debate for international environmentaltaxes. In our scenario, small open economies withdifferent labor market distortions follow a commonenvironmental policy and use national environmentaltax revenues to finance labor tax cuts. Since thedouble dividend hypothesis does not hold, a high labortax implies a low environmental tax relative to othercountries. The optimal differentiation ofinternational environmental taxes is proven to be afunction of the national labor tax rates and theuncompensated elasticities of labor supply.     

Measuring the Diffusion of Technologies Through International Trade

International Advances in Economic Research - Technological advancements affect economic growth, income distribution and levels of unemployment. However, quantifying the pace of technological...     

贸易自由化对我国环境状况的影响

加入WTO以后，我国与其他国家的贸易将进一步自由化，本将探讨由此将给我国环境带来的可能后果以及我国应采取的对策。笔认为贸易自由化主要是通过规模效应、结构效应及技术创新等作用对一国的环境产生影响。应利用贸易自由化有利于环境的因素，限制不利于环境的因素，使我国的环境状况得到优化。     

贸易结构调整、要素市场扭曲与要素收入分配

笔者把哈里斯-托达罗模型引入H-O模型,分析贸易结构调整、劳动力有限流动、劳动节约型技术进步对收入变动的作用机制.结果发现:要素收入分配与贸易商品要素密集度转变存在密切联系,劳动所有者收入下降是贸易商品结构调整的结果;资本深化和劳动节约型技术进步不利于劳动所有者;作为一个劳动力相对丰裕的国家,贸易商品结构从劳动密集型转向资本密集型,出现和要素密集度背离的现象,原因是要素市场的资源配置扭曲和产品内贸易的发展.     

贸易摩擦和新冠疫情双重冲击下全球价值链重构趋势与中国对策

2016年以来全球贸易摩擦的不断加剧和2019年底至今新冠疫情在全球的持续蔓延对全球价值链协作造成双重冲击.对此期间相关国家间关税水平和进出口数据变化的分析,以及对各国政府出台的产业政策的比较研究表明,在贸易摩擦和新冠疫情的双重冲击下,全球价值链出现重构趋势,一些国家的政府越来越将国际政治、国家安全和社会应急考虑置于经济利益考虑之上,积极推动部分产业链回流本国,追求供应链的多元化,加强对本国相关产业的保护.美国出于维护其世界头号经济强国地位的考虑,更是企图对中国进行全产业链封锁.面对这些挑战,我国亟需制定新的有针对性的全球价值链战略,积极采取稳链强链补链措施,稳住低端产业、强化中端产业、补齐高端产业,打造完整而有韧性的产业链供应链,巩固和发展全产业链优势,确保我国经济持续健康发展;巩固亚洲价值链命运共同体;大力发展壮大中国倡导的一带一路价值链;以合作共赢理念处理与美国等西方主要经济体的关系,强化全球价值链相互依存度.     

Optimal Trade Policy with Horizontal Differentiation and Asymmetric Costs

This paper examines the optimal export policy under Bertrand competition when the products exhibit horizontal differentiation and production costs are asymmetric. The focus of this paper is on the product‐differentiation effect in the determination of the optimal export policy. We show that given that the equilibrium characteristic of a foreign firm's product R&D lies to the left‐hand side of its initial level , since the foreign firm has a unit cost advantage and the efficiency of its R&D technology is sufficiently low, a rise in the export subsidy of the domestic country increases a domestic firm's profits and then welfare by extending the degree of horizontal differentiation between the two products. Thus, the optimal export policy under Bertrand competition may turn out to be an export subsidy rather than an export tax. This result is in sharp contrast to that of Eaton and Grossman (1986 ).     

Optimal Monetary Policy with Vertical Production and Trade*

This paper explores the optimal monetary policy response to domestic and foreign technology shocks in an open economy with vertical structure of production and trade. We find that any stage‐specific productivity shock in one country may have a transborder spillover effect on the other country via the vertical trade. So when choosing optimal monetary rules, each monetary authority should respond to both home and foreign productivity shocks. Also, the flexible exchange rate cannot replicate the flexible price equilibrium, even under producer currency pricing, due to price stickiness in multiple stages. We also find that the existence of a transborder spillover effect depends on the currencies of price setting. Finally, vertical trade may affect the value of exchange rate flexibility under PCP and LCP setting.     

Optimal Volume of Environmentally Damaging Trade

It is controversial whether international trade enhances or degrades the global environment. In this model, environmental quality, as measured by biodiversity, is damaged by the consequences of trade, which include the commercialization of natural habitat, pollution and bioinvasion. However, there are also benefits of trade. When both countries internalize the external costs of production and trade, measures of environmental quality may be higher or lower as a consequence of trade, but there is always, unambiguously, less trade the more environmentally damaging it is.     

基于中美贸易数据的人民币升值对中国出口贸易影响的实证研究

2005年7月中国人民银行进行了改革开放以来的第二次汇率改革制度,一美元折合人民币变为8.2369元,升值2.1%。此后,受国内外政治经济环境的影响,人民币仍在不断升值,到2010年1月上升为一美元折合人民币6.8272元。人民币升值对中国出口贸易的影响引起了国内学者的广泛研究兴趣。本文应用ADF检验和Johansen协整检验,证明美国GDP、中国出口商品相对价格、汇率波动对中国出口贸易有显著影响,并根据检验结果,为出口企业扩大出口提出相应的可行性建议。     

Asia and the Reform of Global Governance

Asia's growing economic weight in the world economy is unlikely to produce substantial changes in global economic governance. National economic capabilities are not easily translated into influence over governance outcomes or institutions. Governments must deploy strategies of engagement with key institutions; incumbent powers will attempt counterstrategies. Coalition-building within and outside the region confronts substantial obstacles that reduce Asia's bargaining leverage. Asian preferences over institutional design and policies are unlikely to diverge from the status quo. A more pessimistic scenario includes resistance to global surveillance, spillover from other issue-areas, and defensive regionalism that undermines global institutions.     

Trade and Global Pollution in Dynamic Oligopoly with Corporate Environmentalism

This paper examines the effects of international trade in the presence of dynamic oligopolistic competition where the stock of global pollution has a negative welfare effect and the oligopolists' objectives may include society's pollution damage as well as private profits. In a symmetric case where the number of firms, emission coefficient, and firms' environmental consciousness are the same in two countries, an opening of trade unambiguously improves each country's welfare in the short run. In the long run, however, trade increases the stock of global pollution and hence, whether opening of trade is beneficial depends on the parameters of the economy. If there are asymmetries between countries, the short‐run gains from trade in both countries are not necessarily guaranteed, because trade liberalization may increase output in one country and reduce it in the other. Moreover, free trade may result in lower pollution stock than under autarky.     

贸易自由化对中国环境影响分析

对贸易自由化与环境的关系进行理论分析,在此基础上采用中国2003～2005年全国30个省市的面板数据对二者的关系尤其是中国贸易对环境的影响进行实证分析,结果表明,贸易自由化总体效应表现为有利于环境改善。最后,提出促进贸易和环境协调发展的相关建议。