Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity

This paper estimates how strongly COVID-19 containment policies have impacted aggregate economic activity. We use a difference-in-differences methodology to estimate how containment zones of different severity across India impacted district-level nighttime light intensity, as well as household income and consumption. From May to July 2020, nighttime light intensity was 9.1 % lower in districts with the most severe restrictions compared with districts with the least severe restrictions, which could imply between 5.8 % and 6.6 % lower GDP. Nighttime light intensity was only 1.6 % lower in districts with intermediate restrictions. The differences were largest in May during the graded lockdown, and tapered in June and July. Lower house-hold income and consumption corresponding to zone-wise restrictions corroborate these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density, older residents, and more services employment. The large magnitudes of the findings suggest that governments should carefully consider the economic costs of country-wide pandemic containment policies while weighing the trade-offs against public health benefits. Keywords: Containment policies, COVID-19, Nighttime lights, India     

COST AND QUALITY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR HOME COMMUNITY-BASED CARE SERVICES TO ORPHANS AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN

The encouragement of care of orphans and vulnerable children by non-profit organisations (NPOs) is a major policy response to the HIV and AIDS epidemic in South Africa. The purpose of this article is to present a quality–cost model with five performance indicators for quality and two for costs and to test these against actual performance using data collected from nine rural and urban organisations in 2004 and 2005. Six NPOs had acceptable cost but all had unacceptable quality scores; three had unacceptable cost and unacceptable quality scores. Each rural caregiver had many more orphans and vulnerable children beneficiaries than their urban counterparts but made fewer total visits. As a result, urban beneficiaries received, on average, 3.5 times more visits than their rural counterparts. The results suggest the need for different performance indicators and expectations for rural and urban NPOs and that monitoring and evaluation using the model could improve horne community-based care services.     

Poverty: Insurance Theory and the Medically Uninsured

The federal/state Medicaid program is designed to provide health insurance for the nation's poorest, yet between 15 and 20 percent of the population continue to have no health insurance. Classic utility-based insurance theory is examined to see if it well explains why some do and some do not purchase health insurance at the state level or if a host of other non-economic factors are needed. This pooled, cross-sectional time-series analysis shows that the state characteristics most strongly associated with the prevalence of a lack of health insurance is the percent of persons whose income falls below the poverty line, the percent of the state's population that is female and the percent of the population with only a high school education. This analysis suggests that the starting point for policies aimed at limiting the number of insured should be limiting poverty and perhaps recognizing the gender/education influence in designing state eligibility requirements.     

Food, nutrition, and substitution in the late nineteenth century

Economic historians hypothesize that households in the nineteenth century substituted away from carbohydrates and fiber and towards protein and fat as their incomes rose. Anthropometric historians assert that there was increased nutrient intake without any nutritional substitution. I test these hypotheses using the 1888 Cost of Living Survey. I fail to reject the hypothesis that the income elasticity of fiber is greater than or equal to the income elasticities of protein, fat, or sugar—contrary to the nutritional substitution posited by economic historians. A food modified Engel curve reveals that the shares of carbohydrates, fat, and sugar in the diet vary with household income, but the shares of protein and fiber do not. I do find, however, that the share of protein from animal sources increases with household income. I also find that the diets of late nineteenth century industrial workers were surprisingly balanced by modern standards.     

The human cost of China's industrial growth

This paper examines whether industrial growth during economic development is associated with a high workplace fatality rate by using panel data from China. Controlling for provincial and year fixed effects, our estimations show that provincial industrial growth has a positive impact on the workplace fatality rate. We also find that both the growth of industrial labor productivity and the growth of industrial employment have an impact on workplace fatalities. Our instrumental variable fixed effects estimations, which control for simultaneity, show an even greater effect of industrial growth on the fatality rate. Our empirical findings suggest that the Chinese government ought to reconsider its growth-centered policies to save lives.