Energy exports,globalization and economic growth: The case of South Caucasus

We examine the effect of energy exports and globalization on economic growth using the bias-corrected least square dummy variable model in a panel of five South Caucasus countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Russia and Turkey) over the period of 1990–2009. We provide evidence that higher energy exports and globalization expand economic growth. Also, we find that higher economic, political and social integrations are associated with higher growth rates. Furthermore, we find that greater energy exports contribute to higher growth rates in the course of globalization. In particular, higher energy exports lead to higher growth rates in the period of increasing economic and political integration. We therefore emphasize that energy exports, global integration, and their interaction effects are important determinants of economic growth in the South Caucasus region.     

How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis

We examine the causal relationship between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption for 25 developed economies using both time series and panel data techniques for the period 1970–2014. Due to the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel (countries from Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania), we employ the cross-sectional augmented IPS test to ascertain unit root properties. The cointegration test results indicate the presence of a long-run association between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption. Long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated through the common correlated effects mean group estimator and the augmented mean group estimator. The empirical results reveal that, for most countries, globalization increases energy consumption. In the USA and UK, globalization is negatively correlated with energy consumption. The causality analysis indicates the presence of the globalization-driven energy consumption hypothesis. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using globalization as an economic tool to utilize energy efficiently for sustainable economic development in the long run.     

Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization

The study develops an index of globalization covering its three main dimensions: economic integration, social integration, and political integration. Using panel data for 123 countries in 1970–2000 it is analysed empirically whether the overall index of globalization as well as sub-indexes constructed to measure the single dimensions affect economic growth. As the results show, globalization indeed promotes growth. The dimensions most robustly related with growth refer to actual economic flows and restrictions in developed countries. Although less robustly, information flows also promote growth whereas political integration has no effect.     

东北亚国家出口多样化与经济增长的关系——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

利用1996—2010年东北亚国家的贸易数据,验证了出口多样化与人均GDP之间的关系,并采用系统广义矩方法建立动态面板数据模型,估计了出口多样化对经济增长的贡献。结果表明:就东北亚单个国家而言,出口多样化与人均GDP之间呈U型变动关系,但就东北亚整体而言,这种U型关系并不明显;从东北亚国家的经验来看,出口多样化对经济增长具有积极作用;目前我国出口正处于从多样化向集中化转变的上升阶段,尚未达到U型曲线的拐点。     

Exports,investments and economic development of pre-accession countries of the European Union: an empirical investigation of Bulgaria and Romania

This paper attempts to analyse the relationship between exports, investments and economic development in two pre-accession countries of the European Union, Bulgaria and Romania. For investigation of this relationship a multivariate autoregressive VAR model is used. The results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports, investments and economic growth for the two countries. Granger causality tests based on error correction models (ECM) indicated that there is a ‘strong Granger causal’ relation between economic growth and exports as well as between investments and exports for the two countries. In addition, economic development and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on capital accumulation and economic development.     

Causal analyses between exports and economic growth in developing countries

This study investigates the prima facie causal relationship between the exports and output growth in 30 developing countries over the period from 1960 to 1988 in a multivariate framework. The information set considered for the output and exports models are ω = (domestic output, exports, labour and capital), and ω = (exports, domestic output, exchange rate and foreign output) respectively. This study indentities a feedback prima facie causal relationship between exports and output growth in five countries, export growth prima facie causes output growth in another six countries; output growth prima facie causes export growth in a further eight countries; and no causal relationship was observed between export growth and output growth in the remaining 11 countries. We also found that in 15 countries the foreign exchange rate prima facie caused export growth, and that in 12 countries world output caused export growth.     

The role of exports,FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries

The disappointing economic performance of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies in the late 1980s prompted reforms in foreign trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the early 1990s. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Pedroni panel estimation procedures that allow for heterogeneity, this study found that exports and FDI have a significant impact on economic growth. Granger-type causality tests show the interrelatedness of exports, FDI, imports and income variables. The results also provide evidence of a two-stage causal chain of exports, imports and income. This article calls for more market-oriented policy reforms in SSA countries.     

Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis

This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development.     

Causal relationship between apparel exports and macroeconomic factors

Apparel exports make a significant contribution to economic growth in major apparel exporting economies such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between apparel export growth and its determinants such as GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) and labour productivity using panel data from 11 major apparel exporting countries for the period 1996 to 2013. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium association among the variables and reveal that GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, FDI, and labour productivity have a significant positive influence on apparel export growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non-causality test results suggest that GDP growth, infrastructure and labour productivity contribute to apparel export growth in the short-run. These findings have several policy implications for the governments of the countries under study.     

The Impact of Fiscal and Other Economic Freedoms on Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

This empirical study investigates the impacts on economic growth of reduced fiscal freedom from both the taxing and spending sides. After controlling for nominal long term interest rates, net exports, federal government budget deficits, and other factors, panel two stage least squares estimations using a 4-year panel data set for the OECD nations as a group reveals that reduced fiscal freedom leads to a reduced rate of economic growth; furthermore, it is found that reduced freedom from excessive government size also leads to a reduced rate of economic growth.     

The long-run causal relationship between exports and economic growth in the euro area

This article employs panel methods that mitigate heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence to determine the direction and sign of long run causality between exports and economic growth in the euro area economies from 2000 to 2014. The empirical evidence indicates that there is a unidirectional long-run Granger causality relationship from exports to economic growth in the euro area countries.     

What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis

It is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts with foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors generally do not exhibit strong spillovers. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical methodologies are used: the Johansen trace test, a multivariate error-correction model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given structural changes in the Chilean economy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role in economic growth.     

Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis

This paper investigates the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. The panel causality testing approach, developed by Kónya (2006) [Kónya, L. (2006), exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach, Economic Modelling, 23, 978–992], based on the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Wald tests with the country specific bootstrap critical values, is applied to the panel of fifteen MENA countries for the period 1980–2007. In order to capture the different aspects of financial development, six different indicators are used. Empirical results show that there is no clear consensus on the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth for all measurements of financial development and it is also observed that the findings are country specific.     

Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth?

The paper attempts to show causal relationships between economic growth and FDI and GDI in 80 countries over the period 1971–95, by using a panel VAR model. The results show that FDI Granger–causes economic growth, and vice versa; however, the effects are rather more apparent from growth to FDI than from FDI to growth. Also, GDI does not Granger–cause economic growth, but economic growth robustly Granger–causes GDI. These findings suggest that strong positive associations between economic growth and FDI inflows or GDI rates do not necessarily mean that high FDI inflows or GDI rates lead to rapid economic growth.     

Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis

The relationship between globalization and economic growth, especially in the poorer developing countries, is controversial. Previous studies have used single globalization indicators such as the ratio of exports plus imports to GDP. This paper uses a comprehensive measure of a globalization of Dreher (2006), which is based on measures of globalization of the economic, social and political sectors. Panel data estimates with data of 21 low income African countries show a small but significant positive permanent growth effects. The sensitivity of this growth effect is examined with the extreme bounds analysis (EBA). Contrary to the findings by Levine and Renelt (1992) that cross-country growth relationships are fragile, the effects of globalization and some other determinants of the long run growth rate are found to be robust by EBA.     

Economic growth in South-eastern Europe: the role of the banking sector

This article analyses the relationship between banking sector efficiency and economic growth using a panel data analysis of six South-eastern European countries during the period 1995–2005. The analysis is concentrated on the banking sector because other segments of the financial market are underdeveloped in our sample of countries. We measure the qualitative development in the banking sectors by using the margin between lending and deposit interest rates as well as the share of non-performing loans. By applying the panel data method in a growth-type equation setting, we confirm that improvements in banking sector efficiency, measured through the decreasing interest rate spread, exerted a positive influence on the growth rate of the countries in the region.     

Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Abstract

The goal of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, i.e. Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, over the period 1980–2012. We employ panel unit root tests, and Error Correction Model and cointegration techniques to detect long-run and short-run causalities between the variables used in our study. The overall empirical results reveal that the financial sector development contributes significantly to economic growth in the GCC countries. Our results could be of great interest for policymakers since the financial sector could play a crucial role in lowering the dependency of the governments to oil revenues and could contribute significantly to spur economic growth.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries

ABSTRACT

We investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio.     

HOW THE GLOBALIZATION OF R&D COMPETITION AFFECTS TRADE AND GROWTH

The implications of international R&D competition on trade and growth are investigated. The model is one in which a separate R&D sector competes with the manufacturing sector to secure human capital, and technology is licensed to manufacturers by the winner of a pre-emptive R&D competition. The results show that globalization of R&D competition leads to trade between countries (even identical countries), because the result of competition leads to a reallocation of human capital between sectors. The winning country exports technology and traditional goods, while the loser exports manufactured goods. Globalization with indiscriminate technology licensing increases the world's economic growth rate.     

Broadband penetration and economic growth nexus: evidence from cross-country panel data

This article investigates whether there are Granger causal relationships between broadband penetration, degree of urbanization, foreign direct investment and economic growth using a panel data set covering the G-20 countries for the period 1998–2011. Using our multivariate framework, we first find that all of the variables are cointegrated. Our findings further reveal a network of causal connections between the variables including short-run bidirectional causality between broadband penetration and economic growth among the more developed countries within the G-20. On the other hand, for the developing countries within the G-20, there is evidence of unidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration.