International Trade, Technology Transfer, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper provides a simple analysis of the role of international technology transfer in the determination of the long-run pattern of trade, growth, and welfare in a two-country world within an endogenous growth framework. It is shown how the possibility and form of technology transfer impinge upon the long-run pattern of trade and therefore long-run growth rates and welfare. The most interesting finding of this paper is that, under certain conditions, there is a case in which restricted trade is growth- and welfare-enhancing compared with free trade.     

Protectionist Reputations and the Threat of Voluntary Export Restraint*

Voluntary export restraints are often administered in such a way that each firm's post-VER output allocation is positively related to its output under free trade. When this is true, a credible threat of a future VER will induce foreign firms to dump in the current period, decreasing the domestic price (the Yano effect), and possibly increasing welfare. We show that if an importing government's preferences are private information and if the government makes a series of VER decisions, there may exist an incentive for a welfare-maximizing government that normally prefers free trade to maintain a protectionist reputation by imposing a VER.     

Trade and industrial structure with large firms and heterogeneity

We develop a model of trade and firm heterogeneity in an oligopolistic setting. This setting generates key differences in terms of modelling setup, modelling predictions and welfare implications with respect to the existing literature on trade and firm heterogeneity. In terms of modelling setup our approach allows us to explore interaction between potentially large heterogeneous firms, in contrast to recent trade literature with heterogeneity and atomistic firms. As a result variables like market price and total sales vary endogenously as different firms enter the market. We offer a solution for the integer problem inherent in small group models, based on stochastic dominance. The model generates testable predictions deviating from the benchmark firm heterogeneity model of Melitz (2003) in terms of the effect of trade liberalisation on markups, market shares, the market price. We also derive predictions on the effect of distance and market size on the probability of zero trade flows and export prices. Our model features the possibility that welfare declines as a result of trade liberalisation. The result in Brander and Krugman (1983), the benchmark model for trade under oligopoly, that welfare unambiguously rises with free entry and might decline without free entry due to increased cross-hauling is reversed. In a setting with heterogeneous instead of homogeneous firms, welfare might decline with free entry. A negative welfare effect without free entry can be ruled out if the firm size distribution is sufficiently dispersed.     

The Financing of Foreign Aid and Welfare: Income Versus Consumption Tax

Empirical evidence shows that developed countries use income or consumption taxes to generate tax revenue, of which they transfer a certain fraction as aid to less developed countries. This paper constructs a two-country general equilibrium trade model that takes into account these realities, and examines the terms of trade, employment and welfare effects of international transfers when the donor country increases the fraction of its income or consumption tax revenue transferred as aid. The desirability of each method of aid financing is discussed from the viewpoint of national and world welfare, and conditions are identified under which aid improves world welfare with the one method of financing, and may worsen it with the other.     

Dumping,antidumping duties,and price undertakings

This paper examines which types of firms, from a developed country (DC) or a less developed country (LDC), tend to practice dumping, using a two-market equilibrium analysis of trade in similar products. Specifically, we present a vertical product differentiation model of duopolistic competition between a DC firm and an LDC firm under free trade to show that the DC firm sells a higher-quality product without dumping. In contrast, the LDC firm sells a lower-quality product and practices dumping in the DC market by charging a price lower than the product's price in the LDC's local market. In response to the LDC dumping, the DC government's use of an optimal antidumping duty increases its domestic welfare. The LDC's social welfare may increase if its exporting firm accepts price undertaking rather than dumping. From the perspective of world welfare, defined by aggregating the welfare of the trading countries (DC and LDC), the trade damage measure through imposing antidumping fines on LDC dumping is Pareto-improving compared to free trade (under which dumping takes place) and price undertakings.     

Transboundary Pollution and the Welfare Effects of Technology Transfer

We examine the welfare effects of a transfer of pollution abatement technology in a two-country model. In each country, one industry discharges pollution as a byproduct of output, and the sum of domestic and cross-border pollution decreases the productivity of the other industry. We show the effects of technology transfer on the terms of trade, pollution levels, and welfare. Technology transfer decreases the pollution affecting each country under certain conditions. We derive and interpret the conditions under which technology transfer enriches the donor and the recipient. The results essentially depend on the trade pattern and the fraction of cross-border pollution.     

Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements

This paper examines various implications of preferential trade agreements, namely customs unions and free trade areas, in the context of a multicountry general equilibrium model. The model is calibrated to represent countries with symmetric endowments, and aggregate and disaggregate welfare change measures are used to quantify the welfare effects of preferential trade agreements. It is found that free trade areas are better than customs unions on welfare grounds for the world as a whole. Welfare decompositions suggest that a significant fraction of the welfare changes is explained by the volume-of-trade effect for both types of preferential trade agreements.     

Foreign direct investment and international trade in a continuum Ricardian trade model

We develop a continuum Ricardian trade model to capture both North–South trade and technology transfer via foreign direct investment (FDI) by multinational enterprises (MNEs). We show that there is a unique range of products produced in the South by MNEs. In the case of an infinitely elastic supply of expatriates, if the ability of Southern workers in absorbing Northern technology increases, then (a) the range of MNE production increases, (b) Northern workers's welfare and Southern workers' welfare change in opposite directions, and (c) the world aggregate welfare increases under certain conditions. We explore issues such as North–South wage gaps, FDI policies and the product cycle. We also derive results under a general supply of expatriates.     

Welfare impacts of Indian apple trade policies

In April 2000, India eliminated the quantitative import restriction of apples and instituted a trade barrier in the form of lower ad valorem tariffs. This study examines the impacts of Indian trade policies on the apple market by reviewing the government policies, discussing mathematical and graphical analyses of trade policies, presenting estimated equations of demand, supply, and excess supply, and providing solutions of prices, quantities, and welfare impacts under autarky, free trade, and tariff regimes. Given the total population of more than one billion and a vast middle income population, and economic reforms and resulting income growth, India has a considerable potential to increase its apple consumption. Our study shows that under free trade, India will consume 3008 thousand metric tonnes (TMT) of apples of which 2237 TMT will be imported. Also, free trade will increase the total welfare by Rs 29?512 million. These large gains suggest that India should liberalize apple import barriers and move toward free trade.     

Endogenous enclosure in North-South trade

Abstract .  We show that the second-best case against the optimality of free trade remains valid in the face of a well-targeted, but costly, policy response. Trade between a North, where property rights can be enforced at relatively low cost, and an otherwise identical South, yields trade patterns and welfare results nearly identical to those previously shown to arise if North and South differ exogenously in the extent of control over resources. Both nations respond optimally to world prices, and the opening of trade leads to the development of property rights in the South. Nonetheless, for a set of world prices bounded by the South's autarky price, the South is better off under autarky and is made worse off by each increase in its export price.     

Free trade: what are the terms-of-trade effects?

Changes in trade policy affect a nation’s economic welfare through terms-of-trade and volume-of-trade effects. A move to global free trade would imply higher world economic welfare equal to the sum of all nations’ volume-of-trade, or efficiency, effects. Since the sum of the terms-of-trade effects across all nations is zero, terms-of-trade effects are contentious. Konishi, Kowalczyk and Sjöström (2003) have shown that if customs unions do not affect trade with non-member countries, immediate global free could be achieved if free trade were proposed together with international sidepayments equal to the terms of trade effects. How large would these terms of trade effects, and hence transfers, be? This paper presents estimates from a simple computable general equilibrium model of a world economy of perfect competition. We show that, in some cases, terms-of-trade effects are small compared to efficiency gains, and transfers are not necessary for free trade. In other cases, terms-of-trade gains may account for more than 50% of a country’s gains from free trade and transfers could be large.     

International Duopoly, Tariff Policy and the Superiority of Free Trade

This paper addresses the effectiveness of tariff policy in the long-run production framework in which decisions must be made about plant size and the level of output to be produced by foreign duopolists competing with each other in the importing country's market. We consider two types of tariff regime, discriminatory and uniform, and show that the importing country's welfare is unambiguously higher in the uniform tariff case. We consider free trade in the same production framework and show that, as the long-run capacity decision becomes increasingly relevant relative to the short-run quantity decision, free trade dominates tariffs in welfare rankings.
JEL Classification Number: F1.     

Product differentiation and the gains from trade under Bertrand duopoly

Abstract.  In the literature on the welfare effects of free trade under imperfect competition, one important case seems to have been overlooked, and that is the Bertrand duopoly model with differentiated products. Although many authors have analysed the welfare effects of free trade under Cournot duopoly and demonstrated the possibility of losses from trade, there has been no thorough analysis of the welfare effects of free trade under Bertrand duopoly. In this article we present a thorough analysis of the welfare effects of free trade under Bertrand duopoly with differentiated products, and it is shown that there are always gains from trade. JEL Classification: F12     

IS TRADE IN TECHNOLOGY SUPERIOR TO TRADE IN GOODS?

Using a Ricardian setting we argue that trade in technology generates higher global welfare relative to trade in goods. Hence, free trade in commodities can only be the second best outcome for the world welfare.     

Effects of global trade liberalization on softwood lumber markets

This study develops a world spatial equilibrium softwood lumber model comprised of the major importing and exporting countries/regions to analyse the impacts of global trade reform on the world softwood lumber market. The results show that free trade leads to an increase in lumber trade, and Canadian producers and US consumers are the biggest beneficiaries. Trade liberalization improves the overall world welfare as world producer and consumer surpluses increase. The result highlights the importance of moving towards free trade in the global softwood lumber market.     

Logic of Aid in an Intertemporal Setting

The paper studies the welfare implications of temporary foreign aid in the context of a simple two‐country model of trade. In addition to its usual effects, a transfer of income in one period is assumed to influence the preferences of the recipient country in the following period. The implied changes in the terms of trade over the two periods are consistent with a number of possible outcomes with respect to the intertemporal welfare of the donor, the recipient, and the world as a whole. Particular attention is devoted to the conditions for strict Pareto improvement and the circumstances under which temporary aid transactions are likely to occur.     

How deep is your love? A quantitative spatial analysis of the transatlantic trade partnership

This paper explores the quantitative effects of trade liberalization envisioned in a transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union. We use a quantitative trade model that, in contrast to other works, features consumptive and productive uses of land and we allow for labor mobility and a spatial equilibrium. Our calibration draws mainly on the world input–output database (WIOD). The eventual outcome of the negotiations is uncertain. Tariffs in E.U.–U.S. trade are already very low, however, so that an agreement will have a major impact only by eliminating nontariff barriers. These are extremely hard to quantify. We address these uncertainties by considering a corridor of trade‐liberalization paths and by providing numerous robustness checks. Even with ambitious liberalization, real income gains within a TTIP are in the range of up to 0.46 percent for most countries. The effect on outside countries is typically negative, yet even smaller. Taking land into account scales down the welfare effects strongly. Interestingly, we find that all German counties derive unambiguous welfare gains even though the model allows for negative terms‐of‐trade effects. Our analysis also implies that in order to arrive at the same welfare gains as under a TTIP, a multilateral liberalization would have to be much more ambitious for the U.S. than for the E.U.     

Impact of Regional Economic Integration in East Asia

The current study evaluates the economy wide impact of trade liberalization in the ASEAN region along with China, Japan and Korea (ASEAN + 3) by the year 2020 using the GTAP framework. The study also assesses the environmental impact of the trade liberalization in the region focusing on the seven environmental indicators (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, BOD, COD, Suspended Solid and Industrial Waste). The result shows that the countries under agreement (ASEAN + 3) will benefit with increased output, expansion of trade and welfare due to trade reforms. Further, the integration will increase the global welfare, although the regions not under agreement in the world will show a decline in output growth. Vietnam will be gaining with the highest output growth among the ASEAN region; however, the impact on the environment would not be favourable. The environmental impact reveals a mixed outcome for participating countries under the agreement. The paper provides useful insight in pursuing greater trade liberalization among the countries under the study.     

Effects of Unilateral Climate Policy on Terms of Trade,Capital Accumulation,and Welfare in a World Economy

We present a two-good, two-country overlapping generations model where emissions arise from production and each country has a domestic emission permit system. When one country unilaterally reduces her cap on emissions, her output available for domestic and foreign consumption diminishes more than in the other country. With unchanged consumption expenditure shares for both goods the domestic terms of trade improve, while capital stocks decline in the reducing and less strongly in the non-reducing country. Improving terms of trade in the reducing country and falling capital stocks lead in total to welfare losses in both countries. However, if the country which unilaterally reduces her emission permits is a net creditor to the world economy and the Golden Rule applies, her own welfare loss remains below that of the non-reducing country.     

The Gains from Trade and Policy Reform Revisited

The primary purpose of the paper is to provide characterizations of the conditions for welfare improvements in several situations that have received very little attention in the existing literature. The first aim is to exhibit the gains that can accrue to a country from the elimination of excess supplies as a result of a policy move from autarky to free trade. The second aim is to characterize the conditions under which the introduction of new goods into the economy will generate welfare gains. The third main area discussed is the extension of the authors’ methodology to a large open economy that can influence its terms of trade. The techniques used to illustrate the gains from eliminating excess supplies and from the introduction of new goods have a much wider applicability; they may be used to obtain and synthesize several welfare results from the literature.