Short-Run Supply Responses in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

This article investigates the response of beef-cattle producers to changes in the price of cattle. Previous research has suggested that there may be a negative short-run supply response to a permanent increase in the price of cattle. We build a dynamic, rational expectations model that separates the markets for fed and unfed beef. This separation generates predictions that the supply response is generally positive, even for permanent shocks in the short run, and nests the negative supply response as a special case for appropriately restricted demand shocks.     

Supply Management and Productivity Growth in Alberta Dairy

Specification of quota licenses as quasi-fixed inputs in a multi-variate flexible accelerator model of dynamic input adjustment reveals supply management's effect on Alberta dairy investment patterns and, thereby, on total factor productivity growth. Estimates of a dynamic dual model of Alberta dairy, using panel data from 1975–91, show that strong complementarity between cattle and quota licenses results in short-run cattle adjustments that are opposite in direction from the long-run adjustments. A model of total factor productivity growth under dynamic input adjustment shows that the distortions to cattle investment caused by investing in quota licenses adversely affects productivity growth. As a result, there is likely to be a significant understatement of single-period estimates of the cost of supply management in the dairy sector.     

Dynamic adjustment in the US beef market with imports

This paper hypothesizes that while there are important qualitative differences in domestic beef and imported beef, beef and cattle imports also represent attempts by the US beef processing and wholesale sector to adjust to short-run changes in supply and demand. Dynamic production theory is applied to the problem to test for this adjustment process, and presents a production theory approach to meat trade that has previously been included in demand functions. The results of this analysis suggest that the method used provides a reasonable and appropriate representation of the import behavior of the US processing and wholesale beef sector.     

Dynamics of Beef Supply in the Presence of Cointegration: A New Test of the Backward-Bending Hypothesis

Following a general-to-specific strategy of model development, we develop error-correction equations for fed beef supply and feeder cattle demand. Starting with a theoretically acceptable set of variables, preliminary tests for unit roots and cointegrating vectors show stationary quantity variables and cointegrated prices. Simplification of the lag structure leads to equations with considerably richer dynamics than in previous studies. The final model passes several misspecification tests, is robust when estimated on subsamples of data, and makes more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than other models. In beef supply, the estimated error-correction model decomposes the backward-bending supply hypothesis into negative short-run and positive long-run supply elasticities at the monthly frequency.     

NEGATIVE SUPPLY RESPONSE AND THE ROLE OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN A TWO-PERIOD MODEL OF CATTLE PRODUCTION

This paper incorporates a representation of producers' price expectations (ARIMA) in a two-period production process to characterise short-run cattle supply. The model provides a framework for examining the role of biological factors and changing expectations of future cattle prices in generating a negative short-run supply response. The biological link between cattle generations requires the farmer to make a decision between production today and production tomorrow. This decision is based on a trade-off between the possibilities of increasing current profit levels by increasing current output weighted against the possibilities of increased future profit by maintaining animals in inventory under the expectation of future price increases. Application of the model to Canadian data for the period 1978-81 shows that the necessary condition for a negative supply response exists, but that the total supply elasticity remains positive.     

An Econometric Model of the Colombian Beef Sector: 1950–1970

Recent theoretical and empirical studies of beef cattle producers by Barros, Jarvis, Nores, Reutlinger, and Yver have focused on producers' supply response assuming cattle represent consumption goods and capital goods. To differentiate producer price response for cattle sold as consumption goods and cattle retained as capital goods requires data on herd and slaughter age-sex structure. This has limited the range of econometric work which could be carried out in many developing countries. This study utilizes a time series of the Colombian cattle herd which was recently constructed by Rivas and Valdes and which has the necessary age-sex and slaughter data to develop a complete system of structural equations representing the simultaneous determination of demand and supply for Colombian cattle over the 1950–1970 period.     

The Significance and Insignificance of Demand Analysis in Evaluating Promotion Programs

The estimated effects of promotion on demand are often small and insignificant. Yet, the estimated effects of promotion on industry profit are often positive and large. This puzzle is explained by demonstrating that (in)significance of promotion in a demand equation does not imply, and is not implied by, (in)significance of promotion in an industry profit equation. A Monte Carlo example is provided. The econometric modeling implications are discussed. The short-run marginal effect of a dollar of generic beef promotion on slaughter cattle industry profit is estimated to be about $9.84 with a standard error of 3.77 for 1997.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

The nature of the research-induced supply shift

Differences among firms in a competitive industry can affect the shape of the industry supply curve. It is necessary to know how both production costs and rents are affected by research. Industry response to research will be different depending upon whether entry occurs. If the effect of entry is ignored, then the price decline from research will be overstated. Industry marginal returns can be positive with purely yield-increasing research, even when industry demand is inelastic. Standard formulas for calculating producer surplus based on linear industry supply and demand curves are strictly valid only if the analysis is restricted to short-run equilibrium behaviour.     

INSTABILITY IN WORLD GRAIN MARKETS

The paper discusses the nature of international price variability for wheat and coarse grains. In particular, it explores the relationship between variability in national grain markets and international trade. Empirical evidence is presented on the degree to which short-run fluctuations in domestic grain production are transmitted to the world market by major countries or country aggregates, and on their absorption of international market variability. The impact of possible structural or policy changes upon future international price variability is explored. It is argued that multilateral action to promote greater international stability should focus on the modification of domestic storage policies to reduce the transmission of short-run domestic fluctuations in supply or demand to world markets.     

Inflation,capital markets and the supply of beef

This paper puts forward an explanation for the negative elasticity of supply of beef found in many LDC's. As is explained by Jarvis (1974), the elasticity of supply of beef may be negative in the short run due to the dual role of cattle as both a capital and a consumption good. But in some LDC's, and especially in Latin America, one may find a long-run negative association between slaughter and prices, that cannot be explained by assuming shocks to slaughter are causing changes in prices. It is no coincidence that Jarvis' hypothesis itself was developed to explain developments in Argentina, a country with chronic high inflation. The paper argues that this long-run relationship cannot be explained by the Jarvis hypothesis, and offers an alternative hypothesis based on the demand for cattle as a hedge against inflation. The long-run negative association between slaughter and prices has been found in high inflation countries. High inflation combined with excessive regulation of capital markets cause the well known phenomenon of desintermediation. It is argued here that cattle plays a role in the inflation hedged portfolio that is then demanded. Therefore, with imperfect capital markets the supply of beef is affected by the demand for cattle as an asset, and this demand, in turn, is affected by inflation. This paper will only attempt to prove the link between imperfect capital markets and the supply of beef. The way inflation in a repressed capital market leads to an imperfect capital market is not addressed here, for reasons of brevity. The paper will develop a model that in the context of imperfect capital markets results in a negative elasticity of supply. The model will then be tested with Uruguayan data. Uruguayan data are very adequate to test the hypothesis because they cover both a period without inflation and a period of high inflation. The results support that cattle was used as an alternative to money holdings when inflation signified a big tax on the latter. Inflation therefore affected the demand for cattle, or, conversely, the supply of beef.     

Modeling inter-sectoral growth linkages: An application to U.S. agriculture

General equilibrium and open economy trade theory are used along with time series data on the U.S. agricultural sector to provide insights into the structure of agricultural supply, factor returns and linkages to the rest of the economy. Output expansion and factor returns are found to vary depending on relative factor intensities, which we refer to as Rybczynski and Stolper-Samuelson like effects. The effect of the rest of the economy, particularly the increase in price of services, is found to have relatively large negative impacts on agriculture. The short-run effects of prices and factor endowments on growth in agricultural supply and factor returns are dominated by the long-run effects of technological change.     

Price volatility and rational expectations in a sectoral framework commodity model: a multivariate GARCH approach

This article explores supply response models in a rational expectations framework with endogenous risk by using a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with Cholesky decomposition. This approach allows the incorporation of price volatility as a risk factor into the supply response of a primary commodity sector that is composed of several markets of homogenous products. The model is applied to the Greek meat sector, which is composed of four major meat categories, that is, beef, lamb, pork, and broiler, and thus the model for the entire market includes supply and demand equations for all the four meat markets, which are estimated simultaneously. The empirical results confirm that price volatility is a significant risk factor in Greek meat production and also provide useful implications about the cost factors of production. Furthermore, the empirical findings show that the last reform of the Common Agricultural Policy seems to have had a negative effect on beef and lamb production in Greece.     

Price and quantity adjustment in a dual character market The case of the Greek poultry sector

In this paper we set up, estimate and test a short-run model for the poultry sector in Greece. The model allows for the simultaneous existence of a monopolistically competitive and a competitive segment, and determines producer and consumer prices, and the quantity consumed. We provide evidence on steady-state parameters such as demand and supply elasticities, as well as on speeds of adjustment of prices and quantities. The evidence suggests that adjustment is very rapid, although quantities appear to be adjusting more quickly than prices. The model is used to examine the dynamics of adjustment to demand and supply-side disturbances.     

Decompositions of corn price effects: implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply

This article examines how corn prices affect the demand for feed grains and the supply of livestock outputs. The differential approach to the theory of the multiproduct firm is employed to examine ex ante decisions about feed grain demand and livestock supply. The estimation results suggest that livestock producers have little flexibility in adjusting the demand for corn in response to an increase in corn prices. The substitutable relationship between corn and distillers’ grains contributes to alleviating pressures on feed costs in response to high corn prices. In addition, the estimation results highlight that the composition of livestock supply can be altered by changes in livestock prices. On the basis of the estimated elasticities, the decompositions of profit‐maximizing input demand are conducted to examine the effects of changes in corn prices on feed grain demand and livestock supply. The decomposition results reveal that an increase in corn prices reduces corn demand but raises the demand for distillers’ grains mainly due to the substitution effects of corn price changes. The decomposition results also show that an increase in the price of corn reduces cattle supply but raises the supply of chicken and pork due to the output relationships in supply.     

A SUPPLY FUNCTION FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS

Results of an investigation into factors affecting the aggregate supply of dairy products in Australia are presented. Empirical estimates of the parameters of the supply function, using ordinary least squares, indicate that some concept of average prices for dairy products is a more important determinant of supply than ratios of prices of dairy products relative to prices of production substitutes such as beef cattle or sheep and lambs. The empirical results also indicate that the quota-type effects of the various metropolitan fluid milk schemes are important in determining supply. Effects of new technology on supply could not be quantified due to intercorrelation of explanatory variables.     

Structural changes in Swedish wastepaper demand: a variable cost function approach

The primary purpose of this paper is to analyse the short-run price responsiveness of wastepaper demand in Sweden for four different paper and board products, as well as any structural changes in demand behaviour for these products over time. The analysis is done within a variable Translog cost function model, and we employ data for individual paper and board mills over the time period 1974-1994. The results suggest that the short-run own-price sensitivity of waste paper demand is relatively high compared to those of other input factors, and it has also tended to increase over time for some of the paper products. In addition, wastepaper demand has also become more sensitive to changes in energy prices, and its use increases with increases in the price of energy. However, the relationship between wastepaper and woodpulp is more complex, and in many instances wastepaper and woodpulp are short-run complements. Overall this implies that price based recycling policies will be relatively successful in promoting wastepaper use, but they will not necessarily lead to the conservation of virgin forest resources.     

PROFIT MAXIMISATION AND IMPERFECT COMPETITION—AN APPLICATION OF QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING TO HORTICULTURE*

This paper discusses the determination of profit-maximising behaviour under conditions of imperfect competition in product and/or factor markets. After stating a quadratic programming model which restricts product demand and factor supply functions to a linear form, an empirical application to a New Zealand nursery firm is discussed. It is concluded that such quadratic programming models should have an important role to play in horticultural management     

Firm-level Intermediate Demand for Pacific Whiting Products: A Multi-attribute, Multi-sector Analysis

Variation in seafood prices resulting from differences in product characteristics are often obscured by highly aggregated data or data representing only upstream sectors. This can lead to myopic commodity-based analysis that fails to identify how changes in public and private fisheries management may impact product characteristics, market development, and long-run social benefits. Given these problems, alternative methods are needed to complement traditional demand, supply and cost-benefit analysis. Mail and personal surveys of seafood wholesalers were conducted to determine preferences for Pacific whiting products. The relative importance of fillet and headed and gutted product characteristics are determined using conjoint analyses and factorial-based market experiments. Estimation of relative profitability, probability of purchase and short-run "conditional" demand models reveal the importance of wholesaler characteristics, physical product characteristics and contractural arrangements. Marketing margins and demands for improved products are also estimated. Implications for private and public resource management are discussed.     

Demand System Estimation with Upward-Sloping Supply

There are three important implications of this work. First, demand systems estimates that overlook supply response are as subject to simultaneous equations bias as single ad hoc demand equations. Theil shows theoretically that assuming supply curves are perfectly elastic, when in fact they are not will underestimate price responsiveness in demand equations. An empirical example is presented that demonstrates that the price elasticities generally increase when upward-sloping supplies are assumed.
Second, the iterative testing procedure presented may provide direction for model building when the true structure of the system is unknown. For example, the results of the Wu-Hausman test indicate that assuming chicken supply is perfectly elastic in a model of the Japanese livestock industry is justified. The results also indicate that the supplies of Wagyu beef, dairy beef, pork and fish are upward-sloping and therefore should be modeled as endogenous variables in the demand system.
Third, the results emphasize the sensitivity of projections of Japanese beef imports to the assumptions underlying the demand system. If perfectly elastic meat supplies are assumed for an analysis of reducing Japanese beef import liberalization, the results will likely underestimate the impacts on beef imports.
In summary, the supply curves for agricultural products tend to slope upward within the time periods used for traditional policy analysis and demand system estimation, which in turn implies that prices are determined endogenously within the system. Endogenous price determination is contrary to the assumptions that underlie the theoretical foundations and many empirical applications of demand systems. We present a methodology to test for and adjust demand systems for endogeneity. The importance of this adjustment is demonstrated by using an analysis of the liberalization of the Japanese beef market.