Technological forecasting and assessment: Science and/or mythology?

A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C, West Churchman's recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume that the inquiry systems which are appropriate for “well-structured” problems are also appropriate for “ill structured” problems. It is argued that technological forecasting is an inherently ill-structured problem and therefore requires a methodology which is uniquely suited to such problems. The Dialectical and Singerian Inquiring Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems.     

The Impact of Modelling and Simulation Technology on Engineering Problem Solving

The paper focuses on the use of modelling and simulation technology in the design and development of engineering projects. Using case studies, the authors examine the experiences of engineers and designers working with these tools. The paper provides insights into how this technology is reshaping the way engineers work and solve problems. Engineering design remains a highly uncertain activity and the costs of failure can be high. It was found that the use of modelling and simulation helps engineers to better understand physical properties and behaviour—quickly, cheaply and accurately—before they construct artefacts and systems. Such tools can help engineers 'learn-before-doing' and experiment with the integration of different technologies and components. Modelling and simulation helps build the 'design conversation' between contributors to an engineering project, including customers and regulators. It provides opportunities for feedback and learning and can promote open, interdisciplinary and collaborative working styles. These findings are related to existing literature on problem solving in engineering design and a future research agenda is proposed that examines the opportunities for and limitations of these technologies.     

On the methodology of the holistic experiment: An approach to the conceptualization of large-scale social experiments

Presupposing Churchman's and Ackoff's definitions of a system, the notion of a holistic experiment is defined. A holistic experiment is an experiment on a nonseparable system for the purpose of determining the properties (measures of effectiveness) of the systems components. The basic problem of a holistic methodology is that of conceptualization: (1) the conceptualization of the systems “components,” (2) the conceptualization of the “teleological” standard that defines the systems components; and (3) the assessment of the degree of systems “separability.” Various guidelines for conceptualization are offered. These guidelines derive from such disparate disciplines of knowledge as the sociology of knowledge, the psychology of science, the philosophy of science, law, epistemology, ethics, and systems science. It is argued that the problem of defining an adequate methodology for holistic systems constitutes an “ill-structured” problem. The methodology for dealing with ill-structured problems is not the same as the methodology for dealing with well-structured problems. To date, the methodology of the management sciences has been overwhelmingly preoccupied with well-structured problems. Large-scale social experiments require a fundamentally different approach.     

The Impact of Modelling and Simulation Technology on Engineering Problem Solving

The paper focuses on the use of modelling and simulation technology in the design and development of engineering projects. Using case studies, the authors examine the experiences of engineers and designers working with these tools. The paper provides insights into how this technology is reshaping the way engineers work and solve problems. Engineering design remains a highly uncertain activity and the costs of failure can be high. It was found that the use of modelling and simulation helps engineers to better understand physical properties and behaviour—quickly, cheaply and accurately—before they construct artefacts and systems. Such tools can help engineers ‘learn-before-doing’ and experiment with the integration of different technologies and components. Modelling and simulation helps build the ‘design conversation’ between contributors to an engineering project, including customers and regulators. It provides opportunities for feedback and learning and can promote open, interdisciplinary and collaborative working styles. These findings are related to existing literature on problem solving in engineering design and a future research agenda is proposed that examines the opportunities for and limitations of these technologies.     

Professional Investors as Naturalistic Decision Makers: Evidence and Market Implications

This paper is the first to examine investment decision-making from a naturalistic decision perspective. Naturalistic decision procedures tend to be used by experts making decisions in complex, ill-structured, and indeterminate situations. Survey results indicate that investment professionals, like other naturalistic decision-makers, rely heavily on mental imagery, reasoning by analogy, and decision procedures that become more intuitive as complexity increases. Also, they are "satisficers," not optimizers. In other words, their primary aim is to make an acceptable choice; finding the best choice is not necessary. Clinical training is recommended to improve the performance of investment professionals. In particular, investment professionals may benefit from training similar to that given to medical professionals wherein emphasis is placed to extensive repetitive exposure to "real world" decisions complete with plenty of immediate and unambiguous feedback.     

跨国石油公司全球分摊成本的管理策略研究

通过收集研究数家大型跨国石油公司全球成本分摊的程序与方法，从企业管理的角度分析其成本分摊的动因及存在问题，并提出相应的管理建议和策略，以便为熟悉跨国石油公司全球成本分摊的模式，完善跨国企业全球分摊成本的管理和控制提供帮助，同时，也为正在海外耕拓的国内企业特别是能源企业健全海外项目管理提供借鉴。     

Technological forecasting and planning exercises in engineering curricula

To sensitize graduate students in engineering to the multidisciplinary nature of decision making in contemporary situations, the elements of technological forecasting have been used as the basis for a graduate course. The principal objective is to use the technological forecasting approach in a structured problem resolution sequence, one of which is discussed here. Faced with a hypothetical problem of diversification in a medium-sized, high-technology organization, the student group employed objective trees, cross-impact matrices and structured interviews (Delphi rounds) in order to define quantitatively the nature and scope of opportunities open within the framework of economic, societal, political, and technological environments pertaining to their situation. Delphi-style debates, using a Consensor, were used to resolve group or individual conflicts. The exercise is intended to expedite adaptation of graduate engineers to the environment (industrial, social, etc.) within which they will be expected to perform as useful decision makers.     

Political and social forecasting using conflict analysis — The US presidential race

Political and social situations are usually too complex and poorly defined for most mathematical techniques of analysis. Yet political and social forecasting can be very important to individuals, companies and even nations. Conflict analysis is a quantitative technique which is useful for the modeling and prediction of complex political and social problems. In this paper, the basic components of a conflict model are described. The method of analyzing a conflict model and relating it to the real world situation is also explained. In order to demonstrate the procedure, the 1984 US Presidential election campaign is used as an illustrative example.     

Interdisciplinary policy analysis in economic forecasting

Economic policy formulation suffers from many ills, not the least of which is a basic inadequacy in the methods of long-range economic forecasting. This article discusses the need for a longer time perspective in economic policy and the shortcomings of current methods in regard to philosophical assumptions, theoretical limitations, economic modeling problems, and institutional issues. Interdisciplinary policy modeling is suggested as a partial solution to these shortcomings, and two examples are offered—one in regional policy simulation and other in world food-supply modeling.     

The Cultural Dimension of Technology Management: Lessons from the History of the Automobile

This article criticizes traditional innovation strategies for focusing too one-sidedly on technological matters. By applying the concept of 'cultural ambience', the authors attempt to show that new technologies stand a larger chance of being introduced on a large scale if, on the one hand, they can be made to fit into existing organizational networks and legal structures and, on the other hand, they are compatible with firmly established routines and perceptions. Regardless of the degree of novelty aimed at, engineers and managers have to pay attention to non-technical factors. Technology management is always cultural management. The thesis of the article is supported by brief narrative analyses of four so-called alternative automobile projects: the NSU rotary-engine car, GM's EV1, a Norwegian electric vehicle and the recently launched Smart car.     

国际石油价格冲击研究综述

国际石油价格剧烈波动对2007年世界金融危机爆发起到了推波助澜的作用,并直接影响当前全球经济复苏进程。本文从石油价格及其形成机制、石油价格冲击对实体经济和金融市场的影响以及应对策略等多个方面对石油价格冲击研究文献进行梳理。已有文献多以发达国家为研究对象,在当前全球经济复苏的背景下,结合当前国际石油市场状况与我国国情,提出有价值的研究方向,这是本文拟达到的目的。     

基于ABC法下的作业成本管理相关问题

基于成本动因分析的作业成本会计和基于作业成本信息的作业成本管理是目前管理会计界所探讨的热点问题之一，本文从成本动因分析入手，阐述了成本动因的基本理念与选择成本动因应考虑的基本因素，提出了基于成本动因而建立的ABC方法以及如何基于ABC法下的信息进行作业成本管理。     

中国环境税制现状、问题及对策研究

环境污染已经成为当今世界面临的共同问题,制约着经济的发展,威胁着人类的生存。实施环境税则是解决这一问题的有效措施之一。本文介绍了环境税的理论基础,分析了中国环境税制度现状及存在的问题,认为中国现行有关环境保护的税费政策,由于存在缺少以保护环境为目的的专门税种、现有涉及环保的税种中有关环保的规定不健全、考虑环境保护因素的税收优惠单一等问题,其力度和系统性不足以形成对环境的保护。并对中国环境税制度建设对策进行了探讨,提出了在将部分排污费改为环境污染税,征水污染税、二氧化硫税和垃圾税,使其成为中国环境税的主体税种的基础上,调整现行资源税和消费税,构建中国环境税收体系的对策。     

我国政府投资项目代建制模式研究

通过分析政府投资项目现状,总结代建制深圳、上海模式改革情况和管理经验,从经济学基本理论出发,提出了加快推进代建制管理模式的若干建议。     

(In)Efficient Environmental Policy with Interacting Pollutants

Many environmental problems involve the transformation of multiple harmful substances into one or more damage agents much in the same way as a firm transforms inputs into outputs. Yet environmental management differs from a firm’s production in one important respect: while a firm seeks efficient input allocation to maximize profit, an environmental planner allocates abatement efforts to render the production of damage agents as inefficient as possible. We characterize a solution to the multiple pollutants problem and show that the optimal policy is often a corner solution, in which abatement is focused on a single pollutant. Corner solutions may arise even in well-behaved problems with concave production functions and convex damage and cost functions. Furthermore, even concentrating on a wrong pollutant may yield greater net benefits than setting uniform abatement targets for all harmful substances. Our general theoretical results on the management of flow and stock pollutants are complemented by two numerical examples illustrating the abatement of eutrophying nutrients and greenhouse gases.     

我国上市公司高管层股权激励中存在的问题及对策研究

高管层股权激励是上市公司管理中的重要机制,是极为重要的薪酬激励模式之一。高管层股权激励加强了公司股东与高管之间的利益关系,促进公司高管为股东创造更多的利益。就此,以上市公司的高管股权激励为研究对象,初步探讨高管股权激励的基本类型和特点,对我国上市公司高管层股权激励中存在的问题进行分析研究,并提出一些行之有效的对策。     

大力发展中小企业扩大就业

文章从发达国家发展中小企业扩大就业的实证分析入手,提出我国也应把发展中小企业作为解决就业问题的基本国策;并分析了我国中小企业发展中的问题,提出了解决的对策。     

论案例教学在旅游市场营销学课程中的运用

旅游市场营销学具有很强的实践性和应用性，为培养学生运用旅游市场营销理论分析、解决实际问题的能力有必要采用案例教学法。文章从案例教学的价值、案例教学的基本环节以及案例教学中应重视的问题等几个方面探讨了案例教学在旅游市场营销学课程中的运用。