The Relevance of Stock and Flow-Based Reporting Information In Assessing the Likelihood of Emergence from Corporate Financial Distress

A number of recent studies have shown that earnings information is less useful and value relevant when firms are financially troubled. This finding has given rise to the consideration of alternatives. In this paper, we examine the contributions of book value-based proxies (normal earnings and abandonment value) and flow-based proxies (earnings and operating accruals) to the assessment of the likelihood of emergence from financial distress. Our prior reasoning is that while book value-based proxies may provide information about potential future cash resources, flow-based proxies, because they capture the progress of reorganization efforts underway, as opposed to mere potential, should be relatively more useful in assessing the likelihood of emergence from distress. Our findings are consistent with this explanation. We document that the primary predictors of emergence are flow-based proxies—in particular, cash from operations, net of earnings.     

Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology

The ability to predict corporate financial distress can be strengthened using models that account for serial correlation in the data, incorporate information from more than one period and include stationary explanatory variables. This paper develops a stationary financial distress model for AMEX and NYSE manufacturing and retailing firms based on the statistical methodology of time-series Cumulative Sums (CUSUM). The model has the ability to distinguish between changes in the financial variables of a firm that are the result of serial correlation and changes that are the result of permanent shifts in the mean structure of the variables due to financial distress. Tests performed show that the model is robust over time and outperforms similar models based on the popular statistical methods of Linear Discriminant Analysis and Logit.     

A Note on Selecting a Response Measure for Financial Distress

Since 1966, researchers have examined financial distress prediction models to determine the usefulness of accounting information to lenders. These researchers primarily used legal bankruptcy as the response variable for economic financial distress, or included legal bankruptcy with other events in dichotomous prediction models. However, theoretical models of financial distress normally define financial distress as an economic event, the inability to pay debts when due (insolvency). This study uses a loan default/accommodation response variable as a proxy for the inability to pay debts when due. The purpose of this note is to empirically test whether or not using the inability of a firm to pay debts when due, loan default/accommodation, as a response measure produces different results than using legal bankruptcy as the response measure. The study's empirical results show that legal bankruptcy and loan default/accommodation financial distress prediction models produce different statistical results, thus suggesting that the responses measure different constructs. A loan default/accommodation model also fits the data better than a bankrupt model. Our results suggest that a loan default/accommodation response may be a more appropriate measure to determine which accounting information is most useful to lenders in evaluating a firm's credit risk.     

Investments,Credit, and Corporate Financial Distress: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Although they are instrumental for economic development, productivity-enhancing corporate investments may increase the financial vulnerability of companies, especially in an economic and financial crisis. We employ an instrumental probit model with the aim of finding evidence for the investment and credit patterns that led companies into financial distress during the global financial crisis 2009–2010. The company-level micro-data for our study on three Central and East European countries—Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and two Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania—originates from two independent surveys, the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey conducted in 2008 and the Financial Crisis Survey conducted in 2009/2010. Both were carried out jointly by the EBRD and the World Bank. Our results emphasize a substantial adverse impact from investment intensity and debt financing on company financial soundness during a crisis. On top of that, we discover a strong non-linear pattern in the sensitivity of company distress to its investment-financing nexus.     

An Analysis of the Underreported Magnitude of the Total Indirect Costs of Financial Distress

In this paper we examine 1,041 ongoing firms over the time period 1982–92. Using quarterly data for the detection and measurement of the magnitude of the indirect costs of financial distress, we find three important explanatory factors: (a) the distinctiveness of the pattern of increasing financial distress over time, (b) the degree of leverage in the capital structure and (c) the size of the firm. For those firms with a distinctive pattern of increasing financial distress over time, the average annual losses as a percentage of market value is –10.3%. The maximum loss is –76%. Even if the firm never fails, its market value can be severely impacted by the presence of the indirect costs of bankruptcy over time. This study finds a significantly positive relationship between Altman's Z-score and the firm capital investment growth rate. This relation holds after controlling for other variables such as leverage, firm size and market/book ratio. This implies that lost investment opportunities may be also an important part of the total indirect costs of financial distress, which appear now to be much larger than previously recorded.     

Financial Distress and Corporate Performance

This study finds that highly leveraged firms lose substantial market share to their more conservatively financed competitors in industry downturns. Specifically, firms in the top leverage decile in industries that experience output contractions see their sales decline by 26 percent more than do firms in the bottom leverage decile. A similar decline takes place in the market value of equity. These findings are consistent with the view that the indirect costs of financial distress are significant and positive. Consistent with the theory that firms with specialized products are especially vulnerable to financial distress, we find that highly leveraged firms that engage in research and development suffer the most in economically distressed periods. We also find that the adverse consequences of leverage are more pronounced in concentrated industries.     

The Impact of Managing Director Changes and Financial Distress on Audit Qualification and Auditor Switching

Abstract:   This study examines the interactive effects of change in managing director/chief executive officer (MD) and financial distress together with five control variables (type of audit firm; audit fees; gearing; time; and company size) on first, audit opinion and secondly on auditor switching. Based on a sample of 297 UK listed companies between 1987 and 2001, we find that companies that are financially distressed and change their MD are most likely to receive a qualified audit report, ceteris paribus . In addition, we find evidence of both familiarity and intimidation threats and that the probability of a switch increases with the severity of qualification.     

行业与区域的企业财务危机预警模型比较研究

本文运用多元判别模型、Logit模型、主成分模型,对不同行业和地区的企业进行财务危机预警研究,进而分析判别准确率的差异.同时,对预警模型的指标选择和不同类型危机的预警判别进行了比较分析.本文研究生成的预警模型可以提供给商业银行进行风险度量使用.     

公司治理和融资政策的关系研究综述

公司治理在融资政策选择中起着重要作用。公司治理作为减少代理成本的激励机制，能抑制内部人机会主义行为，使其不能按自身利益调整公司融资政策。同时，公司治理通过减低信息不对称水平、减少小股东受掠夺的风险进而降低资本成本。本文对国内外公司治理与融资政策之间关系的研究进行了全面、系统的回顾，评价了现有文献存在的问题和不足之处，为中国上市公司治理结构和公司融资问题的研究提供了依据。具体而言，本文回顾了公司治理和资本结构、公司治理和债务期限结构、公司治理和资本成本之间的关系。     

金融发展、银行贷款与公司投资

本文从公司投资的角度,考察了我国银行贷款的控制效应,结果表明,我国的银行贷款对于上市公司的过度投资行为具有控制效应,但是这一控制效应并没有随着我国地区金融发展水平的逐渐提高而有所增强;进一步的研究发现,银行贷款对于民营上市公司的控制效应要强于国有上市公司,而且前者的控制效应会随着地区金融发展水平的提高而有所增强,始于2003年的银行业第三阶段的改革,对于两类公司中银行贷款的控制效应都没有起到加强的作用。     

Employee Downsizing Strategies: Market Reaction and Post Announcement Financial Performance

Empirical studies have generally reported insignificant market reactions to employee downsizing. In an effort to reconcile ongoing layoffs with inconclusive empirical results, we segregated our sample by downsizing strategy and examined employee layoff announcements made by Fortune 500 firms during the 1993–1995 period. Unlike previous studies, we find a positive market reaction for layoff announcements related to revenue refocusing. Market reaction with respect to layoff announcements involving cost cutting was insignificant while weak evidence was found for a negative market reaction to layoffs related to plant closings. Consistent with the market reaction, post announcement analysis revealed that downsizing in conjunction with revenue refocusing (plant closing) improved (reduced) firm financial performance and that revenue refocusing firms significantly outperformed cost cutting and plant closing firms over the three–year post announcement period.     

Sound Money and Sound Financial Policy

Anna Schwartz has long promoted a policy of stable money. She also has advocated sound financial policy. The financial environment, according to her work, is strongly influenced by the degree of aggregate price stability. In this article historical evidence for the U.S. is presented that shows a strong association between aggregate price movements and measures of financial distress. Even in an environment of aggregate price stability in the face of shocks, however, a monetary authority should follow the financial policies of a lender of last resort as advocated over a century ago by Walter Bagehot—to promote adequate funds to allay the public's demand for means of payment in the face of a real financial crisis. Other circumstances involving asset market reversals that Schwartz calls pseudo crises should not be the subject of the monetary authorities' actions.     

全球金融危机中公司治理的经验与教训研究

本文从公司治理的视角,分析了全球金融危机中欧美金融业暴露的严重公司治理问题及应对措施。文章提出对股权结构越分散越好、股权激励力度越大越好、股东利益至上及大而不倒等信条的反思,并认为此次金融危机有如下启示:一是在监管中必须重视系统效应的监管责任、逐步建立综合监管模式、探索开展逆经济周期监管;二是中国大型商业银行要处理好创新与发展的关系;三是合理设计薪酬激励机制;四是在风险管理中必须坚持稳健经营理念、加强全面风险管理、理性开展金融创新;五是在董事会建设方面要提高董事会素质、强化风险管理及关注企业社会责任。     

Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis

We present a DSGE model where firms optimally choose among alternative instruments of external finance. The model is used to explain the evolving composition of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008–09, namely, the observed shift from bank finance to bond finance, at a time when the cost of market debt rose above the cost of bank loans. We show that the flexibility offered by banks on the terms of their loans and firms' ability to substitute among alternative instruments of debt finance are important to shield the economy from adverse real effects of a financial crisis.     

Corporate Interest Rates and the Financial Accelerator in the Czech Republic

We analyze the determinants of corporate interest rates and the financial accelerator in the Czech Republic. Using a unique panel of 448 Czech firms from 1996 to 2002, we find that selected balance sheet indicators significantly influence the firmspecific interest rates. Debt structure and cash flow have significant effects on interest rates, whereas indicators on collateral play no significant role. Monetary policy has stronger effects on smaller firms than on medium-size and larger firms. Finally, we find no asymmetric effects in the monetary policy over the business cycle.     

我国财务困境上市公司资产剥离的绩效研究

资产剥离行为在西方企业的资产重组活动中己被广泛应用并对公司业绩起到积极的作用.在我国,随着证券市场的发展和经济结构的调整,上市公司为了优化内部资源配置、提高企业核心竞争力,也纷纷进行了资产剥离.目前学者们在研究资产剥离的过程中,通常选择在沪深证券交易所实行资产剥离的上市公司为研究对象,而没有专门针对财务困境公司进行研究.本文在借鉴国内外资产剥离相关理论成果的基础上,以陷入财务困境的上市公司为样本,针对其资产剥离的绩效问题进行研究.     

大股东控制、财务杠杆与公司价值——国有及民营上市公司治理的比较研究

本文以2002～2004年的上市公司为样本,研究了第一大股东持股比例、财务杠杆与公司价值之间的关系.研究发现,国有控制上市公司与民营控制上市公司公司价值并无显著差异;国有控制上市公司第一大股东持股比例与公司价值呈U形关系,民营控制上市公司第一大股东持股比例与公司价值则呈倒U形关系;国有控制上市公司财务杠杆比率与公司价值负相关,民营控制上市公司财务杠杆比率与公司价值则正相关.其政策含义是,政府应该继续贯彻"抓大放小"的战略方针;监管部门应该关注持股比例较高的民营上市公司第一大股东的资金来源及其行为特征,防止其对公司其他利益相关者的侵害行为;银行贷款应对国有及民营企业一视同仁,银行需要加强对国有控制上市公司贷款的监督.     

金融结构对企业债务融资的影响研究

企业债务融资一直是财务学界研究的重点，对它的认识也逐渐从企业层面扩展到了宏观环境层面。但目前的研究仅仅局限干整个的经济发展，并没有深入讨论具体是哪个方面对债务融资有较大的影响。金融业是企业资金来源的提供方，因而它的发展和结构直接关系到企业的债务融资。为了深入研究，本文把金融结构分成了两个层级。研究结果表明，债务比率和债务期限结构都受到了两个层级的影响，但金融中介发展和股票市场份额的影响要远大于金融中介内部结构的影响。     

政府目标的差异性与财政制度设计

我国实行中央、省、市、县、乡五级政府制度,各级政府以及每级政府之间具有内在结构的差异性和目标的不一致性,导致各级政府可能作出偏离社会整体目标的行为,这就需要在政府之间建立一种使得各级政府均有实现社会福利最大化动力的财政制度。具体而言,要求做到事权与职能相匹配,财权与效率相协调,财力与事权相统一,从而实现财政关系的均等化和公共服务的公平化。     

Financial Shocks and Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets

We examine how cross-firm and cross-country heterogeneity shapes the responses of corporate investment in emerging markets to changes in U.S. monetary policy and financial-market volatility, the latter proxying for uncertainty. We find that in response to increases in U.S monetary policy rates or financial-market volatility, financially weaker firms reduce investment by more than financially strong firms. We also show that firms with stronger balance sheets delay investment voluntarily when faced with higher uncertainty. Finally, we find that stronger macroeconomic fundamentals (lower public debt or higher international reserves) help to buffer corporate investment from increases in U.S. monetary policy rates.