银行信贷配给与中小企业贷款——一个内生化抵押品和企业规模的理论模型

本文在吸收其他文献合理成分的基础上 ,通过考虑贷款抵押品的信号甄别机制和银行审查成本对贷款额的影响 ,将借款企业的资产规模、风险类型与抵押品价值相联系 ,构建了内生化抵押品和企业规模的均衡信贷配给模型。根据该模型 ,在信贷配给中被剔除的主要是资产规模小于银行所要求的临界抵押品价值的中小企业和部分高风险企业。本文的理论模型对于更好地理解市场经济及转型经济条件下的中小企业融资难问题提供了启示。     

Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence

Evidence from many countries in recent years suggests that collateral values and recovery rates (RRs) on corporate defaults can be volatile and, moreover, that they tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This link between RRs and default rates has traditionally been neglected by credit risk models, as most of them focused on default risk and adopted static loss assumptions, treating the RR either as a constant parameter or as a stochastic variable independent from the probability of default (PD). This traditional focus on default analysis has been partly reversed by the recent significant increase in the number of studies dedicated to the subject of recovery‐rate estimation and the relationship between default and RRs. This paper presents a detailed review of the way credit risk models, developed during the last 30 years, treat the RR and, more specifically, its relationship with the PD of an obligor. Recent empirical evidence concerning this issue is also presented and discussed.
(J.E.L.: G15, G21, G28).     

Collateral rehypothecation,safe asset scarcity,and unconventional monetary policy

We build a mark-to-market model where commercial banks can enlarge their balance sheets, repledging the available collateral several times to exchange liquidity through the interbank market. In bad times, the fall of risky asset price disrupts the length of the repledging chain due to the increase of the haircut and the decrease of external assets' value. In such a scenario, the central bank can intervene implementing unconventional monetary policies by purchasing a fraction of the banking system's external assets, both safe treasury bonds, and risky asset-backed securities, to inject liquidity. Our results show that a quantitative easing policy that purchases only safe assets is highly ineffective in restoring the intermediation activity to the pre-crisis level due to its inability to sustain the risky asset price and the repledging chain of collateral. Instead, focusing on risky assets only, the monetary authority can sustain risky asset prices, avoiding the freezing of the money market.     

Competitive equilibrium in the credit market under asymmetric information

We study a competitive credit market equilibrium in which all agents are risk neutral and lenders a priori unaware of borrowers' default probabilities. Admissible credit contracts are characterized by the credit granting probability, the loan quantity, the loan interest rate and the collateral required. The principal result is that in equilibrium lower risk borrowers pay higher interest rates than higher risk borrowers; moreover, the lower risk borrowers get more credit in equilibrium than they would with full information. No credit is rationed and collateral requirements are higher for the lower risk borrowers.     

Credit risk – Return puzzle: Evidence from India

Although asset pricing theories predict a positive relation between risk and returns, empirical findings on credit risk-return relationship are mixed. And, observed negative relation between the two in this regard is referred to as credit risk-return puzzle. Using credit rating as a measure of credit risk, we have investigated into the existence of this puzzle in India during July 2011 to March 2019. We have used information for the companies listed on the National Stock Exchange for this purpose. Our results validate the presence of this puzzle in the Indian stock market. Moreover, credit risk is observed to be a systematic risk, which has not been captured in the traditional asset pricing models. We have also observed partial evidence favoring both behavioural and rational pricing explanations—the two widely acknowledged explanations in the literature behind this puzzle. On our further query in this connection, we have not seen any significant change in the puzzle due to the recent enactment of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code.     

Market discipline in the Brazilian banking industry: an analysis for the subordinated debt holders

Market discipline is a regulatory mechanism which has as its main task the punishment of bad risk management by financial institutions. Subordinated debt holders are considered by the literature as the most propitious private agent to discipline the financial institutions. The key to prove the existence of market discipline is to show the relationship between banks’ asset prices and its respective risks. The main objective of this article is an empirical analysis of the relation between credit risk (ratings and accounting information) and debentures return for the Brazilian case. The results denote a weak presence of market discipline in Brazil.     

中国银行业构建现代信用风险管理模式的思考

针对信用风险的复杂特征,按照比较完善的市场风险管理模型方法可以构建现代信用风险管理模型。同时,在信息系统和内部风险评级逐步完善、信用衍生工具广泛使用的前提下,可以引入现代资产组合管理理论的思想、方法与技术,实施信用风险管理的资产组合管理方法,进而实现现代信用风险管理。重点研究现代信用风险管理的一般模式,并在此模式下,探讨中国实际背景下银行业的战略选择问题,指出完善信息管理信息系统和内部评级体系以及进一步研究信用衍生工具等金融创新的具体思路。     

中小商业银行信贷资产证券化优化资产结构探析

中小商业银行持续较快发展受资产结构的影响和制约越来越突出,时下正在推进的信贷资产证券化业务为其优化资产结构提供了一条新路子。中小银行探索信贷资产证券化,有利于改进资产的流动性结构、盈利性结构和信贷结构,提高资产使用效率及资本节约,被释放出来的资本可用以支持资产结构优化。中小银行开展信贷资产证券化业务有着诸多有利条件,但必须防范战略风险和信用风险。     

Credit unions and risk

The structure of the credit union industry has been transformed by regulatory changes and the subsequent switch by many credit unions to community and multiple-bond fields of membership. This study explores the impact of these trends by testing for differences in risk across credit unions with different field-of-membership types. In tests for differences in risk of bankruptcy and of breaching regulatory standards, risk is found to be greater for credit unions with broader field-of-membership types. These differences in risk appear to derive from greater earnings volatility and lower ROA and net-worth ratios at community and multiple-bond credit unions. These differences in risk decline with greater asset size. Evidence is also presented that credit unions that switched from single-bond institutions to broader field-of-membership types now operate with greater risk.     

Integrated Risk Management with a Filtered Bootstrap Approach

We present a multi-period risk model to measure portfolio risk that integrates market risk, credit risk and, in a simplified way, liquidity risk. Thus, it overcomes the major limitation currently shared by many risk models that are unable to give a complete picture of all portfolio risks according to a single, coherent framework. The model is based on the Filtered Bootstrap approach; hence, it captures conditional heteroskedasticity, serial correlation and non-normality in the risk factors, that is, most of the features of observed financial time series. Being a simulation risk model, it copes in a natural way with derivatives as it allows the full valuation of the probability density function of the contracts. In addition, it is a suitable and flexible way to generate future scenarios on medium‐term horizons, so this model is particularly appropriate for asset management companies.     

Credit and Business Cycles

This paper presents two dynamic models of the economy in which credit constraints arise because creditors cannot force debtors to repay debts unless the debts are secured by collateral. The credit system becomes a powerful propagation mechanism by which the effects of shocks persist and amplify through the interaction between collateral values, borrowers' net worth and credit limits. In particular, when fixed assets serve as collateral, I show that relatively small, temporary shocks to technology or wealth distribution can generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices.
JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E44     

Managing banks' duration gaps when interest rates are stochastic and equity has limited liability

Interest rate risk is an important consideration in both the management and regulation of depository financial institutions. Although the market value of equity is the most often used target of gap management, the conventional tools employed in the literature ignore a crucial characteristic of equity, viz., limited liability. In this article, we compare conventional techniques used to measure the duration gap for depository institutions with the limited liability techniques recently developed in the literature. Our results show that conventional models may over-estimate banks' interest rate risk exposures, especially during times when interest rate volatility and credit risk are at above average levels. This over-estimation may lead banks to make errors in their gap management.     

基于信用创造机制下金融衍生工具交易后风险分类及法律监管

金融衍生市场具有信用创造功能,其货币创造原理、抵押品、证券化程度以及对信用扩张能力与商业银行传统的信用创造机制相比有很大的区别。独特的信用创造机制放大了金融衍生工具交易后面临的市场风险、信用风险、流动性风险、法律风险,从而增加了系统性危机发生的可能性。重新构建我国金融衍生工具交易后监管的框架,是达到对系统性风险有效监控的必然选择。     

Credit growth,monetary policy and economic activity in a three-regime TVAR model

We employ a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) methodology in order to examine the nonlinear nature of the interactions among credit market conditions, monetary policy and economic activity. We depart from the existing literature on the subject along two dimensions. First, we focus on a model in which the relevant threshold variable describes the state of economic activity rather than credit market conditions. Second, in contrast to the existing TVAR literature, which concentrates exclusively on single-threshold models, we allow for the presence of a second threshold, which is overwhelmingly supported by all relevant statistical tests. Our results indicate that the dynamics of the interactions among credit market conditions, monetary policy and economic activity change considerably as the economy moves from one phase of the business cycle to another and that single-threshold TVAR models are too restrictive to fully capture the nonlinear nature of those interactions. The impact of most shocks tends to be largest during periods of subpar economic activity and smallest during times of moderate economic growth. By contrast, credit risk shocks have the largest impact when output growth is considerably above its long-term trend.     

A comparison of pricing and hedging performances of equity derivatives models

This article investigates the pricing/hedging conundrum, i.e. the observation of a mismatch between derivatives models’ pricing and hedging performances, that has so far been under-emphasized as the literature tends to focus on increasingly complicated option pricing models, without adequately addressing hedging performance. Hence, we analyse the ability of the Black–Scholes, Practitioner Black–Scholes, Heston–Nandi and Heston models to Delta-hedge a set of call options on the S&P500 index and Apple stock. We extend earlier studies in that we consider the impact of asset dynamics, apply a stringent payoff replication strategy, look at the impact of moneyness at maturity and test for the robustness to the parameters’ calibration frequency and Delta-Vega hedging. The study shows that adding risk factors to a model, as stochastic volatility, should only be considered in light of the data dynamics. Even then, however, more complicated models generally fare poorly for hedging purposes. Hence, a better fit of a model to option prices is not a good indicator of its hedging performance, and so of its ability to describe the underlying dynamics. This can be understood for reasons of over-fitting. Those findings hint to a potentially appealing hedging-based calibration of models’ parameters, rather than the standard pricing-based one.     

预期、资产价格与总需求-一个简明的理论框架

本文在风险资产价格和总产出空间内,建立了无风险资产、风险资产、信贷和商品市场的联立均衡模型。与传统结构性宏观模型的主要区别是明确地将风险资产价格融入模型当中,强调了预期与风险资产价格变化对总需求的影响,对于现阶段的宏观经济问题提供了有针对性且易于掌握的分析工具。比较静态分析中讨论了人民币升值预期、风险偏好下降、货币政策变动、扩张性财政计划以及外部需求下降等几种外部冲击对风险资产价格和总需求的影响。     

Financial cycles and fiscal multipliers

We show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets, as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with output growth via an identification bias and an omitted variable bias, thus overstating episodes of expansionary consolidations and downplaying contractionary consolidations. When controlling for asset and credit market movements in otherwise standard approaches to identification, we find multipliers to increase on average by 0.3–1 units. Fiscal consolidations are thus more likely to be contractionary and more harmful to growth than expected by some strands of the existing literature.     

The Power of the Euro–Sterling Rates in Explaining Asset Market Rates: A High‐frequency Analysis

This article makes use of high‐frequency asset market data to explain unexpected changes in interest rates using the methodology proposed by Cochrane and Piazzesi (2002) . This work departs from the existing literature because it uses UK market expectations to capture unexpected movements in the base rate, and explores its effect on a large number of asset market variables. Results indicate that the relation between asset market data and unexpected base rate changes is stronger and more consistent than the relation between asset market data and raw base rate changes. Results appear to be robust to extreme value changes.     

AFFECTING FACTORS ON RISK-ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY IN TAIWAN'S BANKING INDUSTRY

This study adopts a two-stage approach, data envelopment analysis (DEA) and tobit regression, to investigate the bank efficiency index and efficiency effect incorporated into account credit and market risk. The authors use the DEA method in the first stage to estimate bank cost efficiency, and the tobit regression model in the second stage to estimate efficiency effects. The empirical results are summarized as follows: First, results indicate that risk factors impact bank efficiency. Banks with a higher degree of nonperforming loans or value at risk will see efficiency decrease by incorporating account risk. Second, there is no significant difference with the bank efficiency index taking only credit risk or market risk into consideration, but there are significant differences on the bank efficiency index in situations without risk or with credit and/or market risks. Finally, the study notes that different bank efficiency indexes calculated according to different risks are affected by different factors. (JEL G1, G21 )