金融全球化与经济转轨国家金融改革的路径选择

自1990年代以来，随着经济全球化的不断深化，随着贸易自由化和生产国际化的进一步扩大，金融全球化和金融自由化已成为一种更加明显甚至是必然的趋势。这一趋势对经济转轨国家利弊兼具，其影响既有正面的，也有负面的；既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。经济转轨国家不仅要直面金融全球化所带来的利益和风险，而且要承受金融全球化与其经济互动所产生的双重效应。如何在融入金融全球化进程和加速金融自由化的同时降低金融风险，并正确选择金融改革的有效路径，这是经济转轨国家普遍面临的现实问题或者说是必须在金融全球化进程中加以解决的问题。本文以俄罗斯和中国这两个各具典型意义的经济转轨国家为研究对象，探讨了金融全球化与转轨国家经济的联动效应，并在此基础上分析了金融全球化进程中转轨国家金融改革的路径选择，以及两种转轨路径下的绩效问题。     

城市基础设施市场化改革中的政府监管

文章在介绍了基础设施市场化改革的背景基础上,总结分析了我国基础设施市场化改革中政府职能应由行政管理向行业监管转变。通过对我国目前政府监管存在问题的分析,提出完善政府监管的建议,即明确政府角色、建立监管机构,完善法律法规,明确监管内容,开发有效监管手段及建立监督机制。     

Product Market Competition in Transition Economies: Increasing Varieties and Consumer Loyalty

This paper analyzes product market competition between foreign entrants and former SOEs in transition markets with respect to expansion of product variety and consumer loyalty formation. While the market share motive induces the more efficient foreign entrant to price aggressively, the extent of this behavior depends critically on its relative efficiency vis-à-vis the local incumbent. If the efficiency gap exceeds some threshold value, the entrant exploits increasingly its cost advantages by raising price rather than investing in market share. Our result suggests that immediate restructuring of former SOEs is important to realize fully the competitive benefits of opening local markets.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 700–715. International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20431.     

Law and Finance in Transition Economies

This paper offers the first comprehensive analysis of legal change in the protection of shareholder and creditor rights in transition economies and its impact on the propensity of firms to raise external finance. Following La Porta et al. (1998), the paper constructs an expanded set of legal indices to capture a range of potential conflicts between different stakeholders of the firm. It supplements the analysis of the law on the books with an analysis of the effectiveness of legal institutions. Our main finding is that the effectiveness of legal institutions has a much stronger impact on external finance than does the law on the books, despite legal change that has substantially improved shareholder and creditor rights. This finding supports the proposition that legal transplants and extensive legal reforms are not sufficient for the evolution of effective legal and market institutions.     

The Transition to Market Economies in an Endogenous Growth Model with Altruistic Agents

This paper considers an endogenous transition from a self-sufficient traditional economy to a market economy and its consequences on fertility and growth. The transition can occur if private intergenerational transfers are unable to secure old-age consumption as adequately as savings on capital markets; otherwise individuals stay in the traditional economy unless the mass-production technology in the market economy is sufficiently more advanced than individually accessible technologies. Markets emerge only if per capita output exceeds a certain level given a fixed cost of forming markets. The transition reduces fertility and promotes growth under plausible restrictions.
JEL Classification : E 20; J 13; O 10     

Learning from Transition Economies: Assessing Labor Market Policies across Central and Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern European countries transformedradicallytheir unemployment benefit systems and altered significantly the composition of their active labor market policy budgets in the transition process. Their recent experience is valuable from an OECD country perspective. Based on a rich data base of district-level outflows from registered unemployment and active labor market policy expenditures and intakes, this paper provides a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of active labor market policies in Central and Eastern Europe. Estimates of an augmented matching function do not point to significant deadweight losses associated with active program intakes. This does not rule out the possibility that active policies displace those already employed, but such substitution effects may not be undesirable given the stagnancy of the unemployment pools in these countries.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 366–384. Università Bocconi and IGIER, Istituto di Economia Politica, via Sarfatti, 25, 20136 Milan, Italy.     

Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies

We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993–95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996–97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.     

计划经济国家转轨异同及其绩效

东欧、俄罗斯、中国等原计划经济国家的体制转轨,备受理论界的关注。转轨实践的共同性与区别,转轨的绩效等问题,是中外学者讨论的热点,问世的成果不少,但争议很大。这说明．对转轨经济的研究既重要,又复杂。本文首先在分析计划经济国家体制转轨起点的同步性和方向的一致性的同时,重点探讨政治选择尤其道路选择的重大差异,并着力透过外在的表现形式揭示差异的基本内涵及其主要的制约因素。在此基础上,本文运用制度生成和现实产出这软硬两类指标,既从静态又从动态的视角,努力对东欧、俄罗斯以及中国的转轨绩效作出符合实际的科学判断。     

Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies

The paper discusses recent changes in central bank laws and the relationship between inflation and central bank independence in transition economies. Two indices of legal independence are constructed, covering political and economic aspects of independence. Most of the countries experienced high-inflation episodes in the recent past and changes introduced to the laws after, or simultaneously, with stabilization programmes strengthened the position of the central banks. In further analysis, an inverse relationship emerges between inflation and indices of central bank independence. However, the robust relationship is present only at a high level of economic liberalization. This conclusion is supported by results from regressions on time-aggregated and panel data, even after controlling for the government fiscal position and the absence/presence of an IMF stabilization package.     

Environmental Financing in European Economies in Transition

The paper offers a perspective on environmental predicament of economies in transition. Emphasis is put on how these economies finance their environmental needs. It is observed that the demand for environmental financing can be affected both by environmental policy measures (such as internalization of externalities) and by other factors (such as the softness of budget constraints faced by firms). The role of subsidies – in many countries of the Central and Eastern European region provided through special purpose ‘environmental funds’ – is then scrutinized. In particular the question is asked whether such funds crowd out commercial capital from the market. Conditions are discussed that would allow the funds to play their constructive environmental roles without crowding out private financing.     

Teacher and Student Economic Understanding in Transition Economies

This study describes a new data set and uses it for an exploratory investigation of whether seminars for teachers conducted by the National Council on Economic Education through its International Education Exchange Program (IEEP) had a beneficial effect on the economic understanding of the high school students of these teachers. The data were collected using a non-equivalent control group design that sorted teachers into two groups based on whether or not they participated in an IEEP seminar. Pre- and posttests of economics were administered to the students of these teachers in Lithuania, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Poland. The exploratory results showed a larger increase in the economic understanding of students of teachers who participated in the IEEP seminars compared with students of teachers who did not. The results also showed that knowledge of economics among IEEP teachers was a factor for improving student achievement in economics. The findings should be viewed with caution because of data limitations.     

演化、转轨与市场过程理论视角的渐进改革

文章认为,基于主流经济学的激进改革思路,无法解释制度演化的多样性与开放性。渐进式改革强调路径渐进、演化、零碎的特征,与更适合解释现实世界的演化经济学、转轨经济学以及市场过程理论的逻辑一致。考虑非正式制度的内生渐进演化特征,迄今为止的渐进改革模式具有理论与现实的合理性。     

Impediments to Exports in Small Transition Economies

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Green Accounting in Imperfect Market Economies

The idea of measuring the national welfare level by using the green NNP (net national product) has gained much attention lately. This paper summarizes the research on social accounting in imperfect market economies by putting the results into a unified framework. The main contribution of the paper is to relate the form of the national welfare measure to the functioning of the economic system and, therefore, to explicitly address the informational requirements implicit in social accounting.     

转型时期的制度变迁和经济发展

本文通过对转型国家的横向比较分析,认为转型国家的制度变革与经济发展具有直接的正相关性。转型国家经济的增长和社会的发展,最重要的因素包括三个方面：即宏观经济稳定、稳定的政策环境、有效的政府,但更为重要的是持续发展则取决于制度的变革和创新。所以转型国家应重视制度的建设和完善。     

企业家在转型经济中的中心作用

本文对转型经济企业家才能类型进行了概括，市场因素以各自不同的速度在各自经济转型国家内自发地产生影响。当企业组织的经济活动变得越来越复杂，就必须有正式的社会公共机构对它们提供支持。有些国家通过建立支持市场运行的基础结构来培育企业家才能，有些国家则不然。本文将讨论这样一个观点：企业家才能发挥的情况在很大程度上可以推断一个国家经济转型的成功与否。