Trade and Income Growth in Vietnam: Estimates from a New Social Accounting Matrix

Economic reforms and greater outward orientation are giving rise to extensive structural change in the Vietnamese economy. Because of the leverage that global markets can exert on an emerging economy, such adjustments will be particularly significant in the composition of domestic supply and demand. As domestic protection levels are reduced and external market access increases, trade growth and shifting trade patterns will have pervasive effects on income distribution in Vietnam. In this paper, we use a newly estimated Vietnam social accounting matrix to elucidate the links between trade and income in the country. With matrix decomposition methods, we show how the Vietnamese economy propagates the direct effects of external demand across the spectrum of domestic activities, factors, and households. This detailed analysis provides a blueprint for policies to improve economic participation of activities and households with relatively weak linkages to the rest of the economy.     

Direct Estimation of Equivalence Scales and More Evidence on Independence of Base

We explore a direct approach to estimating household equivalence scales from income satisfaction data. Our method differs from previous approaches to using satisfaction data for this purpose in that it can be used to directly fit and evaluate closed‐form and non‐parametric equivalence scales of any desired form. Its flexibility makes it easy to consider specific aspects such as income dependence or more specific information on household composition (such as whether household members live in a partner relationship). We estimate and evaluate a number of scales used in the literature. If the equivalence scale is assumed to be independent of income and to depend only on household size, we do not reject the validity of the widely used square‐root scale at conventional significance levels. We also test GESE and GAESE restrictions (Donaldson and Pendakur, 2003, 2006) and investigate in detail to what extent household economies of scale depend on income. Our results suggest that the income dependence differs fundamentally across household types (rising economies of scale for ‘family’ households, falling economies of scale for multi‐adult households without children and no income dependence for other households).     

Interindustry Analysis with Social Accounting Methods

This paper evaluates the role of income-expenditure linkages in interindustry analysis. Using matrix decomposition methods and a social accounting matrix of the USA, it is shown that multiplier estimates which omit such linkages are not reliable measures of the effects of exogenous shocks upon industrial output and income. The paper further applies the decomposition method to study relative income determination between sectors, i.e. how the composition of national product changes in response to exogenous shocks.     

基于收入分布的收入差距扩大成因的分解

本文采用核平滑化的半参方法估计了1987年、1996年、2004年我国城市居民收入分布曲线,并且基于收入分布又进一步分解了导致城市居民收入差距扩大的主要原因。收入差距扩大的成因可以分为两类:一是劳动者的劳动力特点的普遍变化,如劳动者教育水平的提高,行业、职业分布的变化;二是对劳动力特点回报率的变化,如教育回报率的提高,各行业、职业回报率差异的扩大等。本文发现后者是导致收入差距扩大的主要原因。     

DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES WITH DETAILED AGRICULTURAL LAND RENT DATA AND IMPROVED VALUE-ADDED COMPONENTS FOR THE USA

We describe a method for creating social accounting matrices (SAMs) with detailed agricultural land rent data for any arbitrary subset of the 48 contiguous states in the USA. Data on land use and land rents from various public sources is merged with national accounts data. The method reorganizes the rental income of persons concept present in national accounts to payments to conventional primary factors of production. This method also reallocates portions of the indirect business tax account to the appropriate sales and import tax accounts. SAMs created using this method should be useful inputs into input–output or computable general equilibrium models explicitly representing a heterogeneous land market and analyzing the economic effects of agricultural, bioenergy, water and climate policies on land-use change, land rents, agricultural commodity markets, trade and households’ welfare. The method's implementation is freely available, enabling others to rapidly create SAMs with their own desired region and sector aggregations.     

Borrowing Constraints and Credit Demand in a Developing Economy

This paper investigates the determinants of credit demand in the presence of borrowing constraints in a developing economy. We model the determinants of observed debt for Chilean households while accounting for selection bias and the endogeneity of their income and specific household assets. Using a novel Chilean dataset, we estimate the relationship between household characteristics and consumer and mortgage debt. We find substantial differences in the nature of these relationships across the types of debt. For example, we find that the income elasticity for consumer debt is greater than 1 whereas for mortgage debt it is not. The results suggest the increased availability of credit, combined with the aging of the Chilean population, is likely to drastically change the distribution and level of Chilean debt. These findings are particularly relevant for other developing economies currently experiencing rapid income and debt growth. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非正规就业与城镇居民收入分配：1991~2009年

本文利用1991-2009年的CHNS数据使用分位数回归法及基于反事实分析的FFL分解法分析非正规就业比重及非正规就业与正规就业的收入差距变动对城镇居民收入分配的影响。结果表明：第一阶段（1991-2000）,非正规就业的比重及两者之间收入差距的增加是城镇居民收入差距扩大的重要原因;第二阶段（2000-2009）,非正规就业比重的增加依旧引起了收入差距的扩大,但两者之间收入差距的下降引起了收入差距的缩小,但前者大于后者,造成第二阶段城镇居民收入差距的扩大。     

An alternative measure of intergenerational income mobility based on a random coefficient model

We propose an alternative measure of the degree to which income status is transmitted from one generation to another. Our indicator of intergenerational income mobility is based on a random coefficient model, which allows for variation in intergenerational mobility across families due to multiplicative unobserved family‐specific characteristics. This alternative measure suggests that intergenerational income persistence is typically stronger than when intergenerational income mobility is measured using the standard elasticity of sons' income with respect to fathers' income. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Substitution Bias and Cost of Living Variability for U.S. Demographic Groups:

A bstract . Intertemporal cost of living variability is analyzed for households with differing income levels and family characteristics. These indexes are based upon the parameter estimates of a comprehensive system of expenditure equations, the quadratic expenditure system. Despite considerable differences in the group-specific share parameters as well as nonlinearities in the Engle curves for each group, little variation occurs in these indexes for several U.S. price series over the 1967–1984 time period. As a result, we find little evidence that group-specific fixed weight indexes are better cost of living approximations than a general Consumer Price Index even though all substitution bias estimates, by income and household type, are quite small.     

Price-Earnings Ratios in Japan: Recent Evidence and Further Results

We analyse the disparity between Japanese and US price-earnings ratios between 1975 and 1995 with a view to find if the accounting differences between two countries can explain this disparity. Our results indicate that the accounting differences can explain a significant part but not all differences between Japanese and US price-earnings ratios. We further investigate the effect of other possible economic factors on the behaviour of Japanese price-earnings ratios and find that changing expectations about growth opportunities, changes in the real returns and differing inflation also do not fully explain the behaviour of the price-earnings ratios. Therefore, the possibility of the existence of the speculative bubble needs to be explored to fully explain the behaviour of Japanese share price-earnings ratios during this period.     

THE DRIVERS OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN RICH COUNTRIES

Rising income inequality has recently come centre‐stage as a core societal concern for rich countries. The diagnosis of the forces driving inequality upwards and their relative importance remain hotly contested, notably with respect to the roles of globalization versus technology and of market forces versus institutions and policy choices. This survey provides a critical review and synthesis of recent research. The focus is on income inequality across the entire distribution, rather than only on what has been happening at the very top. We pay particular attention to include what has been learned from the analysis of micro‐data, to ensure that the coverage is not unduly US‐centric and to analyses of the interrelations between the different drivers of inequality. The marked differences in inequality trends across countries and time periods reflect how global economic forces such as globalization and technological change have interacted with differing national contexts and institutions. Major analytical challenges stand in the way of a consensus emerging on the relative importance of different drivers in how income inequality has evolved in recent decades.     

MEASURING SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF SHOCKS TO THE ALASKA ECONOMY: AN INTER-REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (IRSAM) MODEL APPROACH

An inter-regional social accounting matrix (IRSAM) model is used to estimate the spillover effects occurring between economies of two US regions – (i) Alaska, which depends heavily on imports of commodities and factors of production from outside the region, and (ii) the rest of the US (RoUS). Multiplier decomposition is used to calculate intra-regional multipliers and spillover effects between the two regions. Results show that a significant percentage (46.3–70.8%) of the total secondary impacts of a shock to Alaskan industries leaks out of Alaska and flows to the RoUS. An analysis of household multipliers indicates that over 60% of the total secondary effects of an increase in Alaska household income accrues to the RoUS households. Policymakers are concerned with identifying the magnitude, nature, and geographic distribution of economic impacts from the policies they implement. The IRSAM model provides the framework for a better understanding of the intra-regional and spillover effects of policies.     

Intragenerational mobility and the concept of the equalization of longer-term incomes: An estimation for a developing country

This paper calculates the degree of intragenerational income mobility and carries out the decomposition of the influence of observable characteristics on income mobility. Using the concept of mobility as the equalization of longer-term incomes, we quantify the class of measures called the E index using administrative records for social security contributions of formally employed young adults in Colombia between 2010 and 2018. In addition, we use the Recentered Influence Function (RIF) decomposition method to extend its application to the E index and decompose the influence of observable characteristics on our estimates. Our findings indicate Colombia's mobility is disequalizing. We also show that female mobility is even more disequalizing than male mobility. Our decomposition shows that disequalizing mobility depends on employees' type of contract, economic sector, and location.     

Performance persistence of fixed income mutual funds

The “winner-winner, winner-loser, gone” methodology allows tests for short-term performance persistence for government and corporate fixed income mutual funds from 1990 to 1999. Persistence occurs when “winner” (loser) funds remain “winner” (loser) funds. If intermediate-term (long-term) bond returns are higher than long-term (intermediate-term) bond returns for successive years, the z-statistic is positive. Persistence is negative in the opposite case, and the pattern holds for longer lag periods. Statistical significance and consistency between the sign of persistence and bond returns indicates persistent returns on bond funds, but the nature of persistence is driven by changes in interest rates. The authors would like to acknowledge the research assistance of Michael Serra and Michael Wieczorek. This research was supported in part by the McDonough School of Business and the Capital Markets Research Center at Georgetown University.     

Economic policy uncertainty,oil price volatility and stock market returns: Evidence from a nonlinear model

This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between economic policy uncertainty, oil price volatility and stock market returns for 25 countries by applying the panel smooth transition regression model. We find that oil price volatility has a negative effect on stock returns, and this effect increases with economic policy uncertainty. Furthermore, there is pronounced heterogeneity in responses. First, oil-exporting countries whose economies depend more on oil prices respond more strongly to oil price volatility than oil-importing countries. Second, stock returns of developing countries are more susceptible to oil price volatility than that of developed countries. Third, crisis plays a crucial role in the relation between oil price volatility and stock returns.     

POLICIES AND PERFORMANCES: The Real Estate Markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, and West Coast Cities

The flow of international funds in real estate investment between Asian and North American cities in the Pacific Rim is now a major financial force to be recognized. This paper reviews the differences in the characteristics and performances of the real estate markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, and several west coast cities. The residential and office price movements among selected Pacific Rim cities over the last 20 years are compared. The paper attributes the differences in the performances to the differences in economic and planning policies in these cities, the differing strategies adopted by the market players, the differences in East and West cultural values, and the differing opportunities and risks created by the various "rules of the game" in each city. If Asian countries continue to enjoy robust economic growth, and the differences in regional real estate markets persist, the flow of international funds within the region and across the Pacific will continue to dominate the 1990's.     

Volatility analysis of precious metals returns and oil returns: An ICSS approach

This study examines volatility persistence on precious metals returns taking into account oil returns and the three world major stock equity indices (Dow Jones Industrial, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225) using daily data over the sample period January 1995 to May 2008; the aim is to analyze market relationships before the global financial crisis. We first determine when large changes in the volatility of each market returns occur by identifying major global events that would increase fluctuations in these markets. The Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) algorithm was used to identify the existence of structural breaks or sudden changes in the variance of returns. In each market the standardized residuals were obtained through the GARCH(1,1) mean equation. Our main results identify a clear relationship between precious metals returns and oil returns, while the interaction between precious metals and stock returns seems to be an independent one in the case of gold with mixed results for silver and platinum. In relation to volatility persistence, the results show clear evidence of high volatility persistence between these markets, especially during times when markets were affected by excessive volatility due to economic and financial shocks.     

Economic Development and Income Distribution: A Cross-National Analysis

Abstract . The relationship between level of economic development and income distribution is analyzed using both a relative measure of income distribution and, for the first time, an absolute measure of income distribution which corrects for purchasing power differences between nations. Cross sectional regression analysis findings indicate support for non-linear relationships both in the total sample of 68 nations, and also in sub-samples of 54 developing nations and 14 industrial democracies. Our findings suggest that the poorest 40 percent of the population lose income both relatively and absolutely in the early stages of economic development. Thereafter there are gains in income although with diminishing marginal returns at the highest levels of development.     

Charitable giving expenditures and the faith factor

Using a permanent income hypothesis approach and an income-giving status interaction effect, a double hurdle model provides evidence of significant differences from the impact of household income and various household characteristics on both a household's likelihood of giving and its level of giving to religion, charity, education, others outside the household, and politics. An analysis of resulting income elasticity estimates revealed that households consider religious giving a necessity good at all levels of income, while other categories of giving are generally found to be luxury goods. Further, those who gave to religion were found to give more to education and charity then those not giving to religion, and higher education households were more likely to give to religion than households with less education. This analysis suggests that there may be more to religious giving behavior than has been assumed in prior studies and underscores the need for further research into the motivation for religious giving. Specifically, these findings point to an enduring, internal motivation for giving rather than an external, “What do I get for what I give,” motive.     

Firm Characteristics and the Pricing of Foreign Earnings of US Multinational Firms

Prior research finds a positive relation between current changes in foreign earnings of USmultinational firms and future stock returns. The cause of this relation is either (1) investors' mispricing of securities by underestimating the persistence of foreign earnings or (2) research design misspecifications (e.g., the researcher failing to control for cross‐sectional differences in risk). The purpose of this study is to determine which of these two competing explanations is more likely. If the anomalous results are due to market mispricing, then the anomalous results should be more pronounced for firms that are followed by fewer well‐informed, sophisticated investors and for firms that have foreign earnings that are more persistent than domestic earnings. If the anomaly is related to research design misspecification, then the existence of the anomaly is not expected to vary across these firm characteristics. The results are more consistent with the market mispricing hypothesis. Predicting the existence of the foreign earnings anomaly based on these firm‐specific characteristics increases our understanding of the true nature of the anomaly. In addition, relating the foreign earnings anomaly to firm‐specific characteristics provides relevant information to investors for firm valuation and helps to promote future academic research in the market's valuation of multinational firms' operations.