An empirical investigation of U.S. bank risk and the Mexican peso crisis

This paper examines two pairs of hypotheses about the effect of the Mexican Peso crisis on U.S. bank stock returns. We use a three-index market model as our empirical methodology because bank stocks are influenced more by both interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk than other non-banking stocks. The results show that the market reacted to each event promptly, supporting semi-strong market efficiency. To find out whether these effects created a domino effect in the U.S. banking system, a set of cross-sectional regressions were run. In general, the empirical results support the investor-contagion hypothesis, which indicates that the market penalized or rewarded banks without regard to their ecposure to the market for Mexican loans.     

An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts

When constructing unconditional point forecasts, both direct and iterated multistep (DMS and IMS) approaches are common. However, in the context of producing conditional forecasts, IMS approaches based on vector autoregressions are far more common than simpler DMS models. This is despite the fact that there are theoretical reasons to believe that DMS models are more robust to misspecification than are IMS models. In the context of unconditional forecasts, Marcellino et al. (Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 135, 499–526) investigate the empirical relevance of these theories. In this paper, we extend that work to conditional forecasts. We do so based on linear bivariate and trivariate models estimated using a large dataset of macroeconomic time series. Over comparable samples, our results reinforce those in Marcellino et al.: the IMS approach is typically a bit better than DMS with significant improvements only at longer horizons. In contrast, when we focus on the Great Moderation sample we find a marked improvement in the DMS approach relative to IMS. The distinction is particularly clear when we forecast nominal rather than real variables where the relative gains can be substantial.     

Labor unions and productivity: An empirical analysis using Japanese firm-level data

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between labor union and firm performance in areas such as productivity and profitability by using data on more than 4000 Japanese firms, ranging from listed large firms to unlisted SMEs, in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector. The presence of labor unions has statistically and economically significant positive effects on firm productivity. Unions' effects on wages are also positive, their magnitude being slightly larger than those on productivity. The decrease in the number of employees is greater at unionized firms than at non-unionized firms. The difference in employment growth is mainly attributable to the change in the number of part-time workers. In order to enhance productivity, close cooperation between management and unions is essential.     

An empirical analysis of the relation between bank charter value and risk taking

This paper examines the relation between bank charter value and risk taking. Using a sample of U.S. banks over the period 1990–2006, we find that the relation is U-shaped: as charter value increases, risk taking first decreases and then increases. This finding is robust across alternative measures of risk taking and an estimation method that accounts for the joint determination of charter value and risk taking.     

An empirical examination of the effectiveness of dollar-cost averaging using downside risk performance measures

Some studies find the dollar-cost averaging investment strategy to be sub-optimal using a traditional Sharpe ratio performance ranking metric. Using both the Sortino ratio and the Upside Potential ratio, we empirically test four investment strategies for alternative asset investments. We find the relative ranking of dollar-cost averaging remains inferior to alternative investment strategies. (JEL G1, G11, N2)     

Thematic content analysis using supervised machine learning: An empirical evaluation using German online news

In recent years, two approaches to automatic content analysis have been introduced in the social sciences: semantic network analysis and supervised text classification. We argue that, although less linguistically sophisticated than semantic parsing techniques, statistical machine learning offers many advantages for applied communication research. By using manually coded material for training, supervised classification seamlessly bridges the gap between traditional and automatic content analysis. In this paper, we briefly introduce the conceptual foundations of machine learning approaches to text classification and discuss their application in social science research. We then evaluate their potential in an experimental study in which German online news was coded with established thematic categories. Moreover, we investigate whether and how linguistic preprocessing can improve classification quality. Results indicate that supervised text classification is generally robust and reliable for some categories, but may even be useful when it fails.     

Diversification strategy and systematic risk: An empirical inquiry

This paper presents some empirical tests of the impact of strategic diversification on a market-based measure of firm risk. Instead of considering merely the consequences of isolated diversifying mergers, as most previous work in this area has done, the study examines the impact of all quoted acquisitions over a five year period using a sample of 100 large companies and a period of intense merger activity. The results cast further doubt on risk reduction as a general motive for diversifying merger, although they do not support the positive association between systematic risk and conglomerate status found in many US studies.     

Donor lifetime value: An empirical analysis

The successful quantification in monetary terms of the value of a donor to a voluntary organisation is absolutely essential to the subsequent development of fundraising strategy. The question most voluntary organisations have failed to address, however, is how best to calculate this value. Many fundraisers continue to examine value historically, looking at the total amounts given to date. Such an approach fundamentally ignores the future or lifetime potential of a given charity donor and can lead to the development of contact strategies that are wholly inappropriate given the worth of that individual. It is the purpose of this paper to calculate the lifetime value (LTV) of various categories of donor and to explain how charities might use such information to inform the development of their fundraising strategy.     

直击金融危机对全球航运的冲击

国际干散货市场恐慌性暴跌10月份以来,由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机对国际干散货市场形成了恐慌性杀跌行情打击。其实,受次贷危机影响,国际干散货市场从6月份开始已进入下跌通道,全球金融危机的爆发彻底摧毁了国际干散货市场参与者的信心,     

Job location and the journey-to-work: An empirical analysis

In this paper we present and estimate a single equation model designed to explain the job-location behaviour of individuals living in a multi-centered metropolitan area. We test the model separately for heads of households and non-heads of households, as well as for the total working population, in order to isolate differences in commuting behaviour between primary and secondary wage earners. The relationships are estimated from 1971 Census, cross-section data using least squares multiple regression.The results of the location equation indicate that wage gradient variables are important determinants of job location for heads of households. On the other hand, non-heads are rather insensitive to the wage gradient. Rather, contrary to the decisions of heads, the job-location choices of non-heads are strongly influenced by socio-economic attributes, notably occupation, family size and age. Clearly, job-location decisions of primary wage earners (usually the household heads) are influenced by earnings-maximizing considerations while secondary earners (non-heads in general) put more weight on other socio-economic factors. The results also suggest that there is a hidden cost associated with uneven directional growth in the Toronto CMA. It is suggestive that urban planning strategies should reflect consideration of the greater desire or need for accessibility on the part of secondary wage earners (non-heads) and the need to balance residential and job opportunities at the extending margin of the urban area.     

An analysis of the managerial performance of Italian museums using a generalised conditional efficiency model

Museums are important cultural institutions having the mission of conserving, interpreting, researching and displaying heritage. The evaluation of their efficiency has been extensively investigated in the literature using different approaches and methods. In this paper, we employ a generalised conditional efficiency model to assess the true efficiency of Italian museums, i.e. the efficiency in the provision of museums' service potential, consistently dealing with the impact of the socio-demographic and institutional environment in which museums operate. Results show that the operational environment matters. In particular, conditional estimates suggest that higher income levels and larger hospitality sectors positively influence museums efficiency. Ownership matters: museums’ service potential is higher for private institutions while, among public institutions, efficiency is generally lower for state-owned museums.     

Financial dependence analysis: applications of vine copulas

This paper features the application of a novel and recently developed method of statistical and mathematical analysis to the assessment of financial risk, namely regular vine copulas. Dependence modelling using copulas is a popular tool in financial applications but is usually applied to pairs of securities. Vine copulas offer greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependence patterns using the rich variety of bivariate copulas that can be arranged and analysed in a tree structure to facilitate the analysis of multiple dependencies. We apply regular vine copula analysis to a sample of stocks comprising the Dow Jones index to assess their interdependencies and to assess how their correlations change in different economic circumstances using three different sample periods around Global Financial Crisis (GFC).: pre‐GFC (January 2005 to July 2007), GFC (July 2007 to September 2009) and post‐GFC periods (September 2009 to December 2011). The empirical results suggest that the dependencies change in a complex manner, and there is evidence of greater reliance on the Student‐t copula in the copula choice within the tree structures for the GFC period, which is consistent with the existence of larger tails in the distributions of returns for this period. One of the attractions of this approach to risk modelling is the flexibility in the choice of distributions used to model co‐dependencies. The practical application of regular vine metrics is demonstrated via an example of the calculation of the Value at Risk of a portfolio of stocks.     

Foreign exchange markets in South-East Asia 1990–2004: An empirical analysis of spillovers during crisis and non-crisis periods

The East Asian crisis of 1997 sparked an extensive literature in an effort to explain the causes and spread of heightened foreign exchange (FX) market pressures in the region. In this paper, we model FX movements and calculate spillover effects covering the extended period between 1990 and 2004. Using Markov switching vector autoregressions, we find evidence that FX correlations vary across crisis and non-crisis states, a result that bears implications for international portfolio diversification and reserve pooling. Even though the direction of effects does not follow discernible patterns, it is clear from the data that contagion effects are present.     

IFRS,financial development and income inequality: An empirical study using mediation analysis

Income inequality continues to be an issue of concern. Early work on economic development suggested that, as a country’s economy grows, incomes would rise and reduce any income disparities. However, there is growing evidence that as countries develop, income inequality actually worsens. Some studies argue that this is the result of financial development and the growth of the financial sector. Although there is a good deal of empirical research on the relationship between financial development and income inequality, there is no prior work that examines how accounting standards, in particular International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), might influence this relationship. This study examines the relationship of IFRS and financial development with income inequality using mediation analysis over the period from 1998 to 2018. The results indicate that the impact of IFRS on income inequality is mediated by financial development. Moreover, there is a direct relationship between IFRS and inequality.     

Designing vendor evaluation systems: An empirical analysis

Companies today are increasing efforts to develop their vendor evaluation system (VES) to qualify and select the best suppliers, monitor their performance and foster continuous improvement. VES lies at the intersection of three disciplines: purchasing management, supply chain management, and performance management. The extant literature especially focuses on vendor rating tools from a mathematical modeling standpoint, whereas firms are mostly concerned with guidelines necessary to design and implement an effective VES. The present study develops an encompassing research framework to investigate VES by means of thirteen case studies. In particular, the paper investigates VES design in terms of strategic alignment, process configuration and execution, as well as corresponding benefits and costs, exploring how the combination of the previous elements determines company satisfaction. Three groups of VESs are identified, leading to different levels of satisfaction.     

An empirical comparison of the Tucker-Messick and INDSCAL models: Measuring viewpoints about transit attributes

This investigation sought (1) to identify perceptually homogenous respondent groups by two individual differences scaling models initially proposed by Tucker and Messick, and Carroll and Chang, (2) to reveal the significance of group percepts with respect to anticipated satisfactions and socio-economic and activity pattern characteristics of group members, and (3) to test empirically the significance of formal distinctions between the two individual differences models. The study utilized judgments about 12 transit attributes of three innovative urban, public transportation modes from a sample of 243 respondents. It was possible to specify seven perceptually homogenous groups, which were distinct in terms of a qualitative analysis of their perceptual spaces and a quantitative convergent-discriminant validity analysis predicated on the distances between pairs of attributes in their spaces. The perceptual groups were shown to have interpretable links to socio-economic and activity pattern characteristics of the respondents. In addition, it was possible to statistically account for the satisfaction ratings of the respondents by the dimensions of their corresponding spaces. Since the Tucker-Messick model was shown to derive more distinct spaces for the separate groups than the INDSCAL model of Carroll and Chang, the Tucker-Messick spaces more uniquely tied a group's percepts to its corresponding satisfactions.     

Performance compensation contracts and CEOs’ incentive to shift risk to debtholders: An empirical analysis

The paper investigates the relationships among CEO incentive contracts, manager ownership, charter value, and bank risk taking. We analyze whether the presence and magnitude of incentive contracts induce CEOs of financially distressed firms and firms with high manager ownership to take unprofitable risks that shift wealth from debtholders to equity holders. Our sample focuses on banks that had both the incentive and opportunity to shift risks, and compares them with those that did not. We compare weak and strong banks in periods when the banks’ principal creditor, the FDIC, was a lenient and then a stringent monitor. The evidence is consistent with bonus compensation inducing CEOs of financially weak firms to shift risk to debtholders only if they do not have large insider ownership. The evidence is also consistent with these contracts rewarding CEOs for their effort to manage unforeseeable risk albeit not their ability. Low charter value banks with high managerial ownership took profitable risk during the lenient regulatory period.     

An empirical analysis of the Carbon Financial Instrument

This study provides an empirical investigation of the price volatility—trading volume relationship for the Carbon Financial Instrument (CFI). A CFI is a financial contract that is traded on the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and represents the right to emit 100 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent. CFI contracts differ from one another on the basis of their allocation year to CCX member firms, referred to as their respective Vintage year. We provide evidence indicating a positive contemporaneous relationship between price changes and trading volume for the different CFI Vintage contracts. Employing bivariate VAR models that adjust for trade duration, we find that CFI price volatility and trading volume are persistent across time. Furthermore, we provide evidence indicating that lagged volume increases price volatility, in addition to lagged price volatility increasing trading volume levels in the CCX market. Our results are in agreement with prior research documenting significant positive price volatility—volume relationships in traditional equity markets.     

Housing prices in Metropolitan Toronto: An empirical analysis

This paper examines short-run fluctuations in real house prices in Metropolitan Toronto. We hypothesize that the average time that a house has been on the market before it is sold provides information on the expectation of future movements in real house prices. The paper combines the use of cross spectral analysis (in the frequency domain) with regression analysis (in the time domain) to examine the relationship between monthly real house prices and the average waiting times. In particular, we use a Hannan estimator to form a distributed lag function from the spectral analysis and use these results as an input to the regression model. The empirical findings support our use of waiting times as a proxy of future real house price movements.     

Risk aversion and business cycles: An empirical analysis

Unlike investors, who tend to maintain highly-diversified portfolios, private entrepreneurs usually lack access to complete risk-pooling for idiosyncratic risks, thus more directly internalize the cost of volatility. Risk aversion, however, modifies the optimal contract between entrepreneurs and lenders by incorporating the risk premium that entrepreneurs demand for the uninsurable risk: the private equity premium. Consequently, real shocks tend to be amplified as changes in entrepreneurs’ net worth affect the private equity premium and so the rental rate of capital, investment and output. This theoretical framework suggests that economies where the private entrepreneurial sector is a relatively larger, and therefore more vulnerable to uninsurable risk, all else equal, should present higher volatility. I test this prediction by (1) conducting a simple reduced-form analysis that shows that output volatility is negatively associated with the relative importance of the corporate vs. the privately-held sector; and (2) estimating the model's structural parameters. Intuitively, countries where private entrepreneurs are predominant and so risk aversion is likely to impose stronger impacts, positive risk aversion coefficients should be found. Results suggest that risk aversion is empirically more relevant for economies like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico and Thailand than for Canada, France, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S.