Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle

Standard housing price indexes rely on strong constant-quality assumptions and often conflict. Hedonic price indexes overcome limitations of median price and repeat-sales indexes but their implementation has been limited by a lack of data. This paper constructs hedonic indexes at the zip code level for the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas using considerably more detailed data than previously available. Our sample was collected by a mortgage technology firm, and consists of almost 1.1 million transactions during the boom-bust cycle since 2000. Our hedonic regressions include new spatial models that capture correlations within submarkets (using zip codes as proxies) and allow temporal asymmetry. Compared to a repeat-sales price index constructed from the same data, the hedonic indexes indicate that the market peaked about 11 months later in Los Angeles and about 2 months earlier in San Diego, show less pre-peak appreciation and post-peak depreciation in low-tier housing and more pre-peak appreciation in high-tier housing. We also find that the intensity of the cycle varies greatly across zip codes and price-tiers in a pattern consistent with foreclosure activity.     

An econometric model of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand

This paper addresses the determination of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand. Full housing demand elasticities incorporate the interactive effects among the four stages of the model. Price and income have major effects in the tenure choice equation. Sociodemographic variables, such as age, have complex effects that may be lost in simpler forms of estimation.     

Crime and Racial Composition in Contiguous Communities as Negative Externalities: Prejudiced Household's Evaluation of Crime Rate and Segregation Nearby Reduces Housing Values and Tax Revenues

Abstract . How the level of amenities in surrounding communities affects the residential location decisions of households is considered. The amenities specifically taken into account are the crime and racial composition of the household's community and the contiguous communities. The theory of the household's valuation of neighborhood amenities through a housing value equation is expanded to include how the household's valuation of amenities is affected by the amenities in surrounding areas. An empirical model using data for 71 suburban communities in the Chicago Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area is specified to measure the simultaneous interaction between housing values, crime, and police effort. A revenue equation is included to determine how the household's valuation of crime and racial composition could affect the community's revenue-raising ability. The empirical results indicate that the crime and racial composition of surrounding communities as well as within the household's community have a statistically significant negative effect on housing values. While the magnitude of the effect is small, the empirical results suggest that households consider the crime rate and racial composition of surrounding communities as negative externalities.     

HEDONIC PRICE INDEXES FOR RESIDENTIAL HOUSING: A SURVEY,EVALUATION AND TAXONOMY

Every house is different. It is important that house price indexes take account of these quality differences. Hedonic methods which express house prices as a function of a vector of characteristics (such as number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and location) are particularly useful for this purpose. I consider here some developments in the hedonic methodology, as it is applied in a housing context, that have occurred in the last three decades. A number of hedonic house price indexes are now available. However, it is often difficult to see how these indexes relate to each other. For this reason I attempt to impose some structure on the literature by developing a taxonomy of hedonic indexes, and then show how existing indexes fit into this taxonomy. Also discussed are some promising areas for future research in the hedonic field. In particular, greater use needs to be made of spatial econometric and nonparametric methods to exploit the increased availability of geospatial data. The main criticisms of the hedonic approach are evaluated and compared with those of the repeat‐sales and stratified median methods. The overall conclusion is that the advantages of the hedonic approach outweigh its disadvantages.     

The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market A second look

I re-examine Mankiw-Weil's (MW) claim that house prices will fall 47% by 2007. MW argue that the arrival of the Baby Boom generation at adulthood drove up prices during the 1970s. When the beginnings of the Baby Bust generation matured in the 1980s, prices softened. When this generation arrives in earnest, prices will collapse. I make three points: (1) The regression upon which MW hang their prediction has an implausible -8.1% trend, which drives their prediction. (2) Demand directly influences the rental price; the asset price (MW's variable) is influenced by demand only indirectly. I re-run MW's regression, replacing the asset price with the rental price, and their prediction disappears. (3) Relying on data presented by MW, I show that housing consumption rose during the 1970s, after adjusting for income growth. Just when MW say the asset price of housing was rising, consumers behaved as if the price were falling. Consumers were right: The rental price fell by approximately 20% during the 1970s.     

Simultaneity in the market for housing characteristics

The nature of simultaneity in the markets for housing characteristics is examined. Simultaneity is found to arise in the implicit markets for individual characteristics because of the presence of nonlinearity in the market (hedonic) price function for housing. However, this simultaneity is not the kind discussed by S. Rosen [J. Political Econ. 82, 34–55 (1974)] between firm supplies and household demands. As a result, the Rosen suggestion of identifying demand with firm supply shifters is inappropriate. Among the alternative approaches to identification, the most desirable involve use of data over two or more markets in which residence for a given household is exogenous to the choice of housing.     

基于向量自回归的存量住房房价租金比分析

1998年住房制度改革以来,房屋销售价格和租金均呈上涨趋势,但两者在增速上有明显的不同。本文基于动态Gordon模型,用一阶向量自回归的方法研究了8个城市房地产市场预期和非预期的房价租金比,结果表明向量自回归模型预测杭州、深圳、武汉、成都、北京的对数房价租金比效果较好,上海的房价租金比最不容易预测。未预料到的房价租金比的决定有明显的地区差异,西部地区的城市主要受租金流新信息的影响,长三角城市受收益率新信息的影响非常大,其他地区的城市主要受收益率新信息的影响。     

我国新建住宅长期供给价格弹性估算——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

大多数住宅模型和政策分析,都直接或间接依赖于住宅供给价格弹性的估计值：为了应对市场需求冲击,是多供给住房还是提高住宅价格？基于Mayo（1981）构建的模型,估算了我国35个主要大中型城市的新建住宅供给价格弹性。根据流量模型,2000-2007年我国的新建住宅价格弹性系数在4-11之间,2008到2013年的价格弹性在5-13之间。而存量调整模型得到了截然不同的估算结果：2008-2013年我国的新建住宅供给价格弹性在1-6之间,更精确的估算出了我国新建住宅供给市场的价格弹性。     

On nonparametric estimation of a hedonic price function

Recently, using mixed data on Canadian housing, Parmeter, Henderson, and Kumbhakar (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2007; 22 : 695–699) found that a nonparametric approach for estimating a hedonic house price function is superior to formerly suggested parametric and semiparametric specifications. We carefully reanalyze these specifications for this dataset by applying a recent nonparametric specification test and simulation‐based prediction comparisons. For the case at issue our results suggest that a previously proposed parametric specification does not have to be rejected and we illustrate how nonparametric methods provide valuable insights during all modeling steps. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intraurban variation in the price of housing

Theoretical models of spatial consumer behavior assume the existence of a housing price surface that increases with accessibility. It is often hypothesized that inadequate accessibility measures are responsible for the failure of most empirical studies to support this premise. A general accessibility measure consisting of a double power series in cartesian coordinates is developed and shown to represent a general formulation of traditional accessibility measures. This formulation is incorporated in a hedonic price regression model, and the model is estimated using census tract data for the city of Milwaukee. The hedonic prices are then used to construct intraurban housing price indexes. The results of this study provide strong support for the existence of the presumed price surface. A comparison of this new hedonic price model with traditional models suggests that the double power series formulation is a superior representation of accessibility.     

Depreciation, Maintenance, and Housing Prices

This paper investigates the effect of homeowner maintenance and improvements on the depreciation rate for housing and on house price indexes. We examine three specifications of a hedonic house price model: one that includes a variable for age, as a proxy for depreciation, and an age–maintenance interaction variable; one that considers depreciation but ignores maintenance; and one that ignores both depreciation and maintenance. The remarks of the listing agent as to the property's condition is our proxy for the level of maintenance characterizing the home. In our sample, we find that poorly maintained homes depreciate at a much faster rate than do homes with average maintenance, and that well-maintained homes depreciate somewhat more slowly. Omitting maintenance from the variable specification has little impact on hedonic house price indexes constructed with our data, but failing to consider dwelling age imparts a significant and growing downward bias to the indexes. Monte Carlo simulations investigating various data specifications support our empirical findings.     

The spatial impact of employment centres on housing markets

The spatial impact of employment centres on housing markets. Spatial Economic Analysis. Local economic growth tends to affect neighbourhood house prices unevenly. It has been observed that prime locations experience price hikes far in excess of the surrounding local area. Yet, this phenomenon is not well captured by existing economic models. This research provides a model of spatial and temporal interactions between housing and employment markets. The results show that rapid growth of employment centres increases house prices in neighbouring locations even after adjusting for fundamentals. It is concluded that spatial clustering of companies creates an option value for existing and potential employees that goes beyond ease of access for commuting purposes.     

Managing hedonic housing price indexes: The French experience

Despite their theoretical advantages, hedonic housing price indexes are not so commonly computed by statistical agencies or real estate professionals. Many published indexes still rely on mean or median prices, or favor repeat-sales methods, which require less information about the attributes of the housing units and less econometric expertise on the part of the index compilers, but may be less accurate and robust. In France as in other countries where housing sales have to be recorded in front of a notary, data on transaction prices and characteristics of dwellings are available. Such data have been centralized since 1994, and quarterly hedonic housing price indexes have been computed for more than 10 years. This paper describes the institutional setting of housing transactions in France, and the collaboration between the notaries and the national statistical agency (INSEE). The former are responsible for data collection and regular computation, whereas the latter takes scientific responsibility for the method. The detailed information on the individual properties transacted remains proprietary data, but disaggregated indexes are publicly and freely available. This organization and assignment of roles has proven effective and might be extended to countries with similar institutional settings.     

Housing Preferences of Temporary Migrants in Urban China in the wake of Gradual Hukou Reform: A Case Study of Shenzhen

In the wake of the recent announcement by the State Council concerning the provision of public rental housing across China, and the gradual reform of China's household registration system (hukou), this article explores how potential adjustments in government housing policies (namely access to public rental housing) influence the housing preferences of temporary migrants who are currently residing inside the chengzhongcun (urban villages) of Shenzhen. The results indicate that dissatisfaction with rental cost and living conditions in these urban villages are the key reasons for migrants wishing to move into public rental housing if it is offered to them — and not the fact that they are treated differently within the hukou system. Public rental housing is welcomed in particular by newly arriving migrants who live outside the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ), and migrants who have decided to remain in Shenzhen for the foreseeable future. By contrast, dissatisfaction with urban villages is the sole contributor to housing preferences for those residing inside the SEZ.     

A Housing Career Perspective on Risk

The main question analyzed in the article is how uncertainty in the asset price of owner-occupied housing capital affects user costs and consequently housing demand. The analysis is performed within the framework of a dynamic model of planned housing careers. Owner-occupied housing has a dual role as both an asset and a consumption good—a consumption good both now and in the future. By holding owner-occupied housing capital, the risk associated with future purchase of housing can be reduced. Taking account of this, it is shown that the risk premium in the user cost is negative for consumers on a sufficient increasing path of future housing consumption. Hence, the demand for owner-occupied housing of a risk-averse consumer can be increasing in asset price volatility. This result is contrary to the “conventional wisdom” in housing economics and can be identified only within an analytical framework that takes account of the dynamic aspects of housing market behavior.     

基于信息熵的多属性决策方法在商品住宅价格中的研究

在市场经济条件下,房地产价格在房地产经济发展和房地产经济运行中有着重要的功能和作用,因此,对房价变动的预测以及如何能够合理制定房价,显得尤为重要。价格的预测,究其本质,是一种体现在数值上的决策活动,本文结合了多属性综合决策模型与回归分析对房价进行了预测研究。通过选取影响房价的部分宏观因素,建立基于熵的多属性综合决策模型,得到各因素与房价之间的关系,并通过回归分析,对房价进行预测。     

城市住房价格指数编制方法的拓展设计及实证检验

科学监测城市房价走势,在当前环境下尤为重要。为拓展国际通行方法编制国内单一城市房价指数的适用性,引入样本匹配重复交易法构建房价指数,以提高样本容量与可比性。基于上海数据的实证结果表明,相较于传统重复交易法和特征价格法,样本匹配重复交易法能更准确地反映住房价格变动,结果异常波动性更小,噪声影响程度更低,在克服样本代表性误差和变量缺失误差方面效果更显著,对编制国内城市房价指数具有较好应用价值。     

Estimation of variance of housing prices using spatial conditional heteroskedasticity (SARCH) model with an application to Boston housing price data

In this paper we investigate housing price volatility within a spatial econometrics setting. We propose an extended spatial regression model of the real estate market that includes the effects of both conditional heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation. Our suggested model has features similar to those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) in the time-series context. We utilize the spatial ARCH (SARCH) model to analyze Boston housing price data used by Harrison and Rubinfeld (1978) and Gilley and Pace (1996). We show that measuring the variability of housing prices is an important issue and our SARCH model captures the conditional spatial variability of Boston housing prices. We argue that there is a different source of spatial variation, which is independent of traditional housing and neighborhood characteristics, and is captured by the SARCH model.     

Residential change and economic choice behavior

Theory of economic choice behavior is applied to construct a dynamic model of residential change at the neighborhood scale. The utility of a neighborhood depends on the investor's decisions, and two different specifications are considered. In the first, these decisions result from a strategy fixed a priori. The model can then be easily studied. The second is concerned with the simplified case of a single neighborhood and supposes that the housing price and quality are dependent on maintenance expenditures viewed as a function of the number of individuals living in the neighborhood. It is then shown how different processes of residential change can be generated by purely economic factors.     

List price and sales prices of residential properties during booms and busts

This paper investigates the relationship between the list and sale price of residential properties over the housing cycle. In down or normal markets the list price generally exceeds the sales price; however, when the housing market is strong, homes sell for more than their list price. This observation is not consistent with the assumptions made in the standard model of home sellers’ search behavior. We consider alternative models. In one, sellers set list prices based on their expectations of future changes in sales prices and the arrival rate of buyers; however, demand shocks occur. This model partially explains our data from the Belfast, U.K. housing market, but it fails to predict the list to sales price ratio during a sustained housing boom. We next describe a model where sellers’ endogenously select their search mechanism depending on the strength of the housing market. We find support for the conjecture that sellers switch to an auction-like model during housing booms. There also is evidence that during a downturn in the market, sellers’ list prices are sticky.