基于参数空间的ST-ECM模型的协整检验问题研究

在非线性平滑转移误差修正模型（ST-ECM）的协整检验中,由于存在未识别参数而使协整检验统计量构造困难,同时由于目前文献普遍使用的泰勒展开近似法并不能精确替代原始非线性模型,从而导致协整检验统计量功效较低。本文首先在遍历未识别参数的参数空间的基础上构造了ST-ECM模型协整检验的supF统计量,推导了supF统计量的极限分布并说明了其收敛性质。接着,蒙特卡洛仿真模拟结果显示,supF统计量在ST-ECM模型协整检验中具有良好的检验水平和功效,且supF统计量的功效明显优于EG统计量、F*NEC统计量和inft统计量。最后,本文对亚洲六个国家的利率期限结构预期假说进行了验证,结果表明中国、新加坡和泰国三个国家的利率期限结构预期假说成立且存在非线性调整效应,supF统计量较其他统计量具有更高的检验功效。     

Generalizing weak instrument robust IV statistics towards multiple parameters,unrestricted covariance matrices and identification statistics

We generalize the weak instrument robust score or Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio instrumental variables (IV) statistics towards multiple parameters and a general covariance matrix so they can be used in the generalized method of moments (GMM). The GMM extension of Moreira's [2003. A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models. Econometrica 71, 1027–1048] conditional likelihood ratio statistic towards GMM preserves its expression except that it becomes conditional on a statistic that tests the rank of a matrix. We analyze the spurious power decline of Kleibergen's [2002. Pivotal statistics for testing structural parameters in instrumental variables regression. Econometrica 70, 1781–1803, 2005. Testing parameters in GMM without assuming that they are identified. Econometrica 73, 1103–1124] score statistic and show that an independent misspecification pre-test overcomes it. We construct identification statistics that reflect if the confidence sets of the parameters are bounded. A power study and the possible shapes of confidence sets illustrate the analysis.     

Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability

In the last two decades, fiscal sustainability has been tested through the use of non‐stationary time series analysis. Two different approximations can be found in the literature: first, a univariate approach that has focused on the stochastic properties of the stock of debt and, second, a multivariate one that has focused on the long‐run properties of the flows of expenditures and revenues, i.e., in the stochastic properties of the deficit. In this paper we unify these approaches considering the stock–flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach involves working in an I(2) stochastic processes framework. Given the possibility of the existence of regime shifts in the sustainability of US deficit that the literature has pointed out, we develop a new statistic that can be applied to test several types of I(2) cointegration and multicointegration relationships allowing for regime shifts. To test for these kinds of changing long‐run relationships we propose the use of a residual‐based Dickey–Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one structural break. We show that consistent estimates of the break fraction can be obtained through the minimization of the sum of squared residuals when there is I(2) cointegration. The finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The econometric methodology is applied to assess whether the US fiscal deficit and debt are sustainable. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does interpersonal emotion regulation ability change with age?

Societal and political changes mean that individuals are working until later in life, leading to interest in whether older workers' effectiveness differs from that of younger workers. An important predictor of work effectiveness is ‘interpersonal emotion regulation’, that is, the management of others' feelings. However, little is known so far about whether there are age-related changes in interpersonal emotion regulation ability. In this article, I apply theoretical evidence about aging to a model of the composite tasks involved in interpersonal emotion regulation, in order to form predictions about age-related differences in the management of others' feelings. I further review the existing empirical evidence base, to highlight areas where predictions are supported and areas where further research is needed. It is hoped that this article will guide future empirical work in this important area, in order to broaden the evidence base on age and emotion regulation.     

Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities

This paper proposes a computationally simple way to construct confidence sets for a parameter of interest in models comprised of moment inequalities. Building on results from the literature on multivariate one-sided tests, I show how to test the hypothesis that any particular parameter value is logically consistent with the maintained moment inequalities. The associated test statistic has an asymptotic chi-bar-square distribution, and can be inverted to construct an asymptotic confidence set for the parameter of interest, even if that parameter is only partially identified. Critical values for the test are easily computed, and a Monte Carlo study demonstrates implementation and finite sample performance.     

The influence of social relationships on international students' intentions to remain abroad: multi-group analysis by marital status

International graduate students are regarded as highly educated global human resources who are necessary for many organizations to survive the global competition. Even though it is regarded that being married is a key factor influencing international mobility, there is little research on differences in intentions to remain abroad between the single and the married. The purpose of this study was to examine how international graduate students' intentions to remain in the USA after graduation differ by marital status. Using a multi-group path model analysis, the hypothesized model was individually tested by marital status, and relationships between the variables were compared. Data from a self-report survey (n = 451) provided that single students' relationships and married students' relationships differed. There was a negative significant relationship between home country family ties and intention to remain for single students. The relationship between satisfaction with the university and intention to remain was positively significant only for single students. There was a positive significant indirect relationship between social support and intentions to remain for single students. The significance of this study can be found in the contributions to research and practices in recruiting and retaining international graduates.     

The influence of school size,principal characteristics and school management practices on educational performance: An efficiency analysis of Italian students attending middle schools

The aim of the paper is to identify which among the aspects that relate to the composition of the student body, school (district) size, management practices and the school principals' own characteristics are associated with the performance of Italian students at grade 8, measured through standardised test scores in reading and mathematics. The analysis makes use of a student-level efficiency model, and several school level variables are included as explanators for efficiency scores. The results show that, especially for reading, the most influential variables relate to the composition of the student body, while the students' performance in mathematics is partly correlated with the management practices adopted by the school principal/head teacher. Schools and schooling can only explain a minor part of the variance in achievement scores, however, and the characteristics of the students themselves play the most significant role.     

Does class matter more than school? Evidence from a multilevel statistical analysis on Italian junior secondary school students

This paper assesses the differences in educational attainments between students across classes and schools they are grouped by, in the context of Italian educational system. The purpose is to identify a relationship between pupils' reading test scores and students' characteristics, stratifying for classes, schools and geographical areas. The dataset contains detailed information about more than 500,000 students at the first year of junior secondary school in the year 2012/2013. By means of multilevel linear models, it is possible to estimate statistically significant school and class effects, after adjusting for pupil's characteristics, including prior achievement. The results show that school and class effects are very heterogeneous across macro-areas (Northern, Central and Southern Italy), and that there are substantial discrepancies between and within schools; overall, class effects on achievement tend to be larger than school ones.     

Multilevel IRT models for the analysis of satisfaction for distance learning during the Covid-19 pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic played a relevant role in the diffusion of distance learning alternatives to “traditional” learning based on classroom activities, to allow university students to continue attending lessons during the most severe phases of the pandemic. In such a context, investigating the students' perspective on distance learning provides useful information to stakeholders to improve effective educational strategies, which could be useful also after the end of the emergency to favor the digital transformation in the higher educational setting.Here we focus on the satisfaction in distance learning for Italian university students. We rely on data comprising students enrolled in various Italian universities, which were inquired about several aspects related to learning distance.We explicitly take into account the hierarchical nature of data (i.e., students nested in universities) and the latent nature of the variable of interest (i.e., students' learning satisfaction) through a multilevel Item Response Theory model with students' and universities' covariates.As the main results of our study, we find out that distance learning satisfaction of students: (i) depends on the University where they study; (ii) is affected by some students' socio-demographic characteristics, among which psychological factors related to Covid-19; (iii) is affected by some observable university characteristics.     

Tests based on φ-divergences for bivariate symmetry

In this paper we introduce a family of test statistics for testing symmetry based on φ-divergence families. These test statistics yield the likelihood ratio test and the Pearson test statistic as special cases. Asymptotic distribution for the new test statistics are derived under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. A simulation study is presented to see that some new test statistics offer an attractive alternative to the classical Pearson test statistic for the problem of symmetry. Received: May 2000     

A non-parametric spatial independence test using symbolic entropy

In the present paper, we construct a new, simple, consistent and powerful test for spatial independence, called the SG test, by using the new concept of symbolic entropy as a measure of spatial dependence. The standard asymptotic distribution of the test is an affine transformation of the symbolic entropy under the null hypothesis. The test statistic, with the proposed symbolization procedure, and its standard limit distribution have appealing theoretical properties that guarantee the general applicability of the test. An important aspect is that the test does not require specification of the W matrix and is free of a priori assumptions. We include a Monte Carlo study of our test, in comparison with the well-known Moran's I, the SBDS (de Graaff et al., 2001) and τ test (Brett and Pinkse, 1997) that are two non-parametric tests, to better appreciate the properties and the behaviour of the new test. Apart from being competitive compared to other tests, results underline the outstanding power of the new test for non-linear dependent spatial processes.     

Lost and Found in Translation: How Firms Use Anisomorphism to Manage the Institutional Complexity of CSR

Prior research on the internationalization of firms from emerging countries has fruitfully invoked institutional theory to emphasize the legitimacy benefits that firms that obtain from showing isomorphism with international norms such as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). Without denying the intuitive appeal for these firms to communicate acceptance of CSR, we suggest that firms face a legitimacy trade-off, where the hoped-for legitimacy benefits of isomorphism must be weighed against other home-country institutional considerations. We advance and test this notion that firms will navigate this institutional complexity by engaging in anisomorphism, i.e., espousing general acceptance with international values but with selective ‘translation’ based on home country differences. We test our predictions by analysing firms' communication of CSR, using a unique dataset comprised of 245 firms observed over the period from 2000 to 2018. Consistent with our predictions, we find that firms from countries more reliant on natural resource extraction (e.g., mining and fossil fuel industries) de-emphasize the environmental component of CSR, and firms from more autocratic countries de-emphasize the human rights component of CSR. Additionally, and consistent with our presumption of firms' weighing the international versus home-country legitimacy trade-off, we find that these main effects are sensitive to changes in firms' levels of internationalization.     

Multiple pairwise comparison procedures based on the Lin and Wang test for right censored survival data

When comparing the prognosis of more than two groups in clinical trials, researchers may use multiple comparison procedures to determine which treatments actually differ from one another. Methods of controlling the Family Wise Error (FWE) rate for multiple comparisons of survival curves have received attention in the statistical literature. Adjustments such as Bonferroni, Holm's, Steele's and the closed procedure based on the logrank test have been studied. If hazards cross, the adjustments based on the logrank test may not be the most appropriate. Chi (2005) developed multiple testing procedures based on weighted Kaplan–Meier statistics as these statistics may perform better than the logrank for non‐proportional hazards alternatives. The aim of this research is to propose multiple testing procedures based on the Lin and Wang (2004) statistic for all pairwise comparisons. Simulation studies have shown this statistic can be more powerful than the logrank for certain crossing hazards. Through simulation, the FWE rate and power of the Bonferroni and Holm's adjustments based on the Lin and Wang statistic will be studied. For comparison purposes, the same adjustment procedures based on the logrank and Wilcoxon will be included in the simulations. These methods are applied to data from the Bone marrow transplant registry.     

Testing block‐diagonal covariance structure for high‐dimensional data

A test statistic is developed for making inference about a block‐diagonal structure of the covariance matrix when the dimensionality p exceeds n, where n = N ? 1 and N denotes the sample size. The suggested procedure extends the complete independence results. Because the classical hypothesis testing methods based on the likelihood ratio degenerate when p > n, the main idea is to turn instead to a distance function between the null and alternative hypotheses. The test statistic is then constructed using a consistent estimator of this function, where consistency is considered in an asymptotic framework that allows p to grow together with n. The suggested statistic is also shown to have an asymptotic normality under the null hypothesis. Some auxiliary results on the moments of products of multivariate normal random vectors and higher‐order moments of the Wishart matrices, which are important for our evaluation of the test statistic, are derived. We perform empirical power analysis for a number of alternative covariance structures.     

A new non‐randomized response model: The parallel model

Despite certain advances for non‐randomized response (NRR) techniques in the past 6 years, the existing non‐randomized crosswise and triangular models have several limitations in practice. In this paper, I propose a new NRR model, called the parallel model with a wider application range. Asymptotical properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (and its modified version) for the proportion of interest are explored. Theoretical comparisons with the crosswise and triangular models show that the parallel model is always more efficient than the two existing NRR models for most of the possible parameter ranges. Bayesian methods for analyzing survey data from the parallel model are developed. A case study on college students' premarital sexual behavior at Wuhan and a case study on plagiarism at the University of Hong Kong are conducted and are used to illustrate the proposed methods. © 2014 The Authors. Statistica Neerlandica © 2014 VVS.     

Symposium. An innovative approach to course restructuring in leadership education. Course restructuring in leadership education. Using differentiated literature to promote professional thinking. Pedagogical and andragogical challenges in leadership studies

In his germinal writing, The Child and the Curriculum, John Dewey (1902) made the forceful case for the development of a curriculum that could integrate and valuate students' desires and needs as crucial elements of education. Similarly, Ralph Tyler's (1949) famous and widely influential curriculum rationale called for the participation of the entire community as an element of curriculum decisions, but this element of his work has been largely absent from educational discourse, especially in a time of national accountability in elementary, secondary, and even postsecondary institutions. In this symposium, we offer a position paper by Dr. Cathy Kaufman that seeks to return students' needs to the forefront of curriculum planning for an interdisciplinary audience. Our respondents, Robert Millward, Ted Pappas, and Winnie Younkin, themselves representing interdisciplinary backgrounds and interests, add their own perspectives to this intersection of leadership education, and the all‐too‐often muted voice of the student in the curriculum development process.     

Optimal comparison of misspecified moment restriction models under a chosen measure of fit

Suppose that the econometrician is interested in comparing two misspecified moment restriction models, where the comparison is performed in terms of some chosen measure of fit. This paper is concerned with describing an optimal test of the Vuong (1989) and Rivers and Vuong (2002) type null hypothesis that the two models are equivalent under the given measure of fit (the ranking may vary for different measures). We adopt the generalized Neyman–Pearson optimality criterion, which focuses on the decay rates of the type I and II error probabilities under fixed non-local alternatives, and derive an optimal but practically infeasible test. Then, as an illustration, by considering the model comparison hypothesis defined by the weighted Euclidean norm of moment restrictions, we propose a feasible approximate test statistic to the optimal one and study its asymptotic properties. Local power properties, one-sided test, and comparison under the generalized empirical likelihood-based measure of fit are also investigated. A simulation study illustrates that our approximate test is more powerful than the Rivers–Vuong test.     

A robust version of the KPSS test based on indicators

This paper proposes a test of the null hypothesis of stationarity that is robust to the presence of fat-tailed errors. The test statistic is a modified version of the so-called KPSS statistic. The modified statistic uses the “sign” of the data minus the sample median, whereas KPSS used deviations from means. This “indicator” KPSS statistic has the same limit distribution as the standard KPSS statistic under the null, without relying on assumptions about moments, but a different limit distribution under unit root alternatives. The indicator test has lower power than standard KPSS when tails are thin, but higher power when tails are fat.     

International Business Teaching and Literacy:

The purpose of this study is to assess the efficacy of international business teaching within an undermduate business curriculum through the use of multidimensional scaling methodolom. One indicant of a student's understaedina of the international business lexicon is higher retention of the connotative and denotative meanings of key terminology and concepts that are unique to the discipline. This study measures undergraduate business students' ability to assimilate knowledge and concepts related to he intemational business lexicon: Shuctural Global Dimensions and Functional Global Dimensions. Sophomore and senior international business students' understanding of the international business lexicon is compared and contrasted. The results suggest that senior students understand the Functional Dimensions of international business better than the Structural Global Dimensions. This could be attributed Lo their exposure to and predilection towards the functional areas of business. The seniors' inability to correctly identify the Structural Global Dimensions could be attributed to their greater exposure to the functional areas or their lower exposure to broaer globh and environmental issues and concerns.     

Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents

This paper shows that the R² and the standard error have fatal flaws and are inadequate accuracy tests. Using data from a Krusell–Smith economy, I show that approximations for the law of motion of aggregate capital, for which the true standard deviation of aggregate capital is up to 14% (119%) higher than the implied value and which are thus clearly inaccurate, can have an R² as high as 0.9999 (0.99). Key in generating a more powerful test is that predictions of the aggregate law of motion are not updated with the aggregated simulated individual data.