Debt Relief Incentives in Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC): An Empirical Assessment

For more than two decades, the majority of countries in the African continent have experienced repeated episodes of rising external debt and debt service, which has led to numerous efforts of external debt relief. This paper provides new evidence on the effects of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative on different economic and social indicators in 60 low income countries (LICs). Results show that LICs that were included in the HIPC Initiative marginally performed better than non-HIPC countries. There is evidence that countries that have reached the completion point of the HIPC Initiative by 2005 have experienced an average improvement in investment, health care, gross secondary education enrollment, and GDP per capita growth.

Does a non-linear mean reverting process characterize real GDP movements?

This paper uses non-linear models to investigate non-stationarity of real GDP per capita for seven OECD countries over the period 1900–2000. Unit root tests based on non-linear models are more powerful than traditional ADF statistics in rejecting the null unit root hypothesis. Empirical results show that, contrary to what the linear ADF statistics suggest, stationarity characterizes five out of the seven countries. This finding stands at variance with other recent studies which conclude that movements in real GDP per capita can be characterized as a non-stationary process.

Transaction tax and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market

This study examines the impact of a stamp tax rate increase on market behavior, using data from two stock exchanges in China. We find that when the tax rate increases from 0.3 to 0.5% (which implies that the transaction cost increases by about 1/3) trading volume decreases by 1/3. This implies an elasticity of turnover with respect to a stamp tax of −50% and an elasticity of turnover with respect to transaction cost of −100%. The markets’ volatility significantly increases after the increase in the tax rate. Furthermore, the change in the volatility structure indicates that the markets become less efficient in the sense that shocks are less quickly assimilated in the markets.

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Population and economic growth with human and physical capital investments

We present a two-sector endogenous growth model with human and physical capital accumulation to analyze the long-run relationship between population growth and real per capita income growth. Formal education and investment in physical capital are assumed to be two separate components of human capital production. Along the balanced growth path equilibrium, population change may have a positive, negative, or else neutral effect on economic growth depending on whether physical and human capital are complementary/substitutes for each other in the formation of new human capital and on their degree of complementarity.

Innovation dynamics in the EU: convergence or divergence? A cross-country panel data analysis

This paper investigates whether a convergence or divergence of national innovation capabilities of the 15 EU countries occurs in the course of time. An answer to this question permits immediate conclusions with regard to the success prospects of a convergence of per capita incomes and labor productivities within the EU. For the empirical analysis based on patents granted at the US-Patent and Trademark Office, unit root tests for time series and panel data are used to scrutinize the convergence hypothesis. Taking all results together, evidence points to the fact that an absolute convergence of innovation capabilities is an exception. However, for a number of countries the results suggest either conditional convergence or convergence to their own growth paths.

Unemployment disparities and regional wage flexibility: comparing EU members and EU-accession countries

This paper provides empirical evidence on regional labor market flexibility in Europe and, in particular, in the EU-accession countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Whereas substantial regional disparities in unemployment are found for pre-accession EU member countries as well as for accession countries, an empirical analysis taking account of spatial effects shows that regional wage flexibility is significantly higher for accession countries. Moreover, unemployment disparities are found to be less persistent in the accession countries.

International crises,instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM

In this article we propose a two step procedure for modeling the propagation of financial shocks. The first step consists in the estimation, by means of SWARCH models, of the conditional probability of being in a period of high volatility, while in the second step such indicators are included in a structural simultaneous equations models for interdependences among different countries. The results show that episodes of financial crisis effectively happened during periods of high volatility and that such measures of instability are important in explaining the propagation of devaluation expectations between six European Countries during the ERM period.

Factor accumulation in Canada before the Great Depression: investment and immigration dynamics

The links between economic growth, investment and migration are explored to determine if one of the mobile factors of production, capital or labor, led the other to accumulate in Canada during several boom episodes over 1870 to 1927. The results of an econometric analysis, using time series techniques, suggest that rising per capita incomes led to increased domestic investment and net immigration, and that foreigners joined the investment booms after domestic residents invested in Canadian development first.

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

Uncertainty avoidance and the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries, 1976–2004

Persistent differences in the level of business ownership across countries have attracted the attention of scientific as well as political debate. Cultural as well as economic influences are assumed to play a role. This paper deals with the influence of cultural attitudes towards uncertainty on the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries. First, the concepts of uncertainty and risk are elaborated, as well as their relevance for entrepreneurship. An occupational choice model is introduced to underpin our reasoning at the macro-level. Second, regression analysis using pooled macro data for 1976, 1990 and 2004 and controlling for several economic variables, yields evidence that uncertainty avoidance is positively correlated with the prevalence of business ownership. According to our model, a restrictive climate of large organizations in high uncertainty avoidance countries pushes individuals striving for autonomy towards self-employment. Regressions for these 3 years separately show that in 2004, this positive correlation is no longer found, indicating that a compensating pull of entrepreneurship in countries with low uncertainty avoidance may have gained momentum in recent years. Third, an interaction term between uncertainty avoidance and GDP per capita in the pooled panel regressions shows that the historical negative relationship between GDP per capita and the level of business ownership is substantially weaker for countries with lower uncertainty avoidance. This suggests that rising opportunity costs of self-employment play a less important role in this cultural environment, or are being compensated by increasing entrepreneurial opportunities.

Is There a Link Between Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Monetary Regime: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

This paper investigates the relationship between the monetary regime: pegged, currency board, dollarization, and the exchange rate pass-through for a sample consisting of 15 Sub-Saharan Africa countries and 12 Latin American countries. The research findings about pass-through rates will shed light on the feasibility of a monetary union for Sub-Saharan Africa. The inclusion of the latter country group was deemed desirable to explore pass-through behavior in several monetary regime options not often used in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Export variety and the economic performance of countries

We explore the relationship between export variety and economic development, using data on OECD countries between 1964 and 2003. We show that structural change in the world economy has a particular arrow of time leading to a growing variety of exports. Distinguishing between related variety (within sectors) and unrelated variety (variety between sectors), we also show that related variety stimulates growth instantaneously, while unrelated variety only promotes growth with a considerable time lag. This finding is in line with the evolutionary notions that economic development and international trade patterns are path dependent.

The prices of silver and exchange rates in a metallic monetary system—the cases of India and Iran

Using the notion of co-integration theory and a vector error correction modelling approach, this paper examines in retrospect the long-run relationship between the exchange rate of silver-based currencies and the intrinsic value of silver in India and Iran in a bivariate model. The results based on unit root and co-integration tests indicate a reliable long-run relationship between the price of silver and the exchange rate of silver-based currencies. Our findings also suggest a bi-directional relationship between the price of silver and exchange rate of pound per rupee in the case of India and a feedback relationship between the intrinsic value of qiran and the exchange rate of pound per qiran in the case of Iran.

Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis

This study sheds new light on the mixture of distribution hypothesis by means of a study of the weekly exchange rate volatility of the Norwegian krone. In line with other studies we find that the impact of information arrival on exchange rate volatility is positive and statistically significant, and that the hypothesis that an increase in the number of traders reduces exchange rate volatility is not supported. The novelties of our study consist in documenting that the positive impact of information arrival on volatility is relatively stable across three different exchange rate regimes, and in that the impact is relatively similar for both weekly volatility and weekly realised volatility. It is not given that the former should be the case since exchange rate stabilisation was actively pursued by the central bank in parts of the study period. We also report a case in which undesirable residual properties attained within traditional frameworks are easily removed by applying the log-transformation on volatilities.

Locational choice and price competition: some empirical results for the austrian retail gasoline market

Using data from the Austrian retail gasoline market we find that a higher station density reduces average prices. Market (i.e. ownership) concentration does not significantly affect average price, however is negatively related to the density of stations. Estimation of the pricing and entry equations as simultaneous equations does not alter our conclusions, and suggests causality running from station density to price. We argue that the spatial dimension of markets allows the identification of market conduct, which is particularly relevant for competition policy.

What drives idiosyncratic volatility over time?

We document the patterns of market-wide and firm-specific volatility in the Portuguese stock market over the 1991–2005 period and test several explanations for the behavior of firm-level idiosyncratic volatility. Unlike previous studies we find no evidence of a statistically significant rise in firm-specific volatility. On the contrary, the ratio of firm-specific risk to total risk slightly decreases. We show that this result stems from new listings of large privatized companies that display lower firm-specific risk. Our findings are consistent with the idea that changes in idiosyncratic volatility are related to changes in the composition of the market.

Volatility,growth and cycles

The paper investigates the factors affecting the equilibrium level of output in a panel of European countries. Output depends on factor inputs and on the technology and the efficiency with which those factors are used. Efficiency may be driven by international conditions and institutional changes such as the Single Market Programme in Europe. The technology indicators used in this study depend upon research and development and also include the level of labour efficiency which is indexed on skills data. The level of the capital stock depends upon the user cost of capital, which may depend upon risk and hence on the volatility of the economy. Recent literature suggests that real exchange rate volatility is important in determining investment and therefore has an impact on equilibrium output. A link of this form is uncovered for the European economies. If policy can reduce these volatilities then it can also raise equilibrium output.

Majority voting with stochastic preferences: The whims of a committee are smaller than the whims of its members

This note studies the volatility of the policy chosen by a committee whose members’ preferences are volatile, due to common and individual preferences shocks. It is shown that majority voting mitigates the latter but not the former. The volatility of the policy is smaller the smaller the volatility of members’ preferences, smaller the larger the size of the committee, and smaller than if it was chosen by a single member. The results hold in a context of uncertainty and with multidimensional issues.

Firm survival: methods and evidence

This paper surveys the Industrial Organization literature on firm survival. We find that, in retrospect, the econometric specifications used in this area have progressively become more sophisticated, addressing issues such as discrete time, unobserved heterogeneity and competing risks. We also identify a number of firm- and industry-specific covariates that provide largely consistent results across samples, countries and periods. On the other hand, the evidence is less clear-cut with regard to ownership and spatial factors.

A Regional Perspective on Aid and FDI in Southern Africa

During the last decade international aid flows diminished while Africa’s relative share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) declined. This went together with lacklustre growth and low human development levels. In 2005, the G8 countries announced that they would increase aid to Africa by some $25 billion per annum. The pledge for increasing aid seems to have triggered an extensive debate about the role of aid and other international capital flows in the development of poorer countries. This study contributes to this debate. Specifically it addresses the role of foreign direct investment and aid to growth and human development. Panel estimations are used to determine the relationships between aid, FDI and growth in the Southern Africa region from 1990 to 2005. Negative relationships are found between FDI and growth while aid and growth turned out to be unrelated.