Hong Kong housing markets: Overview,tenure choice,and housing demand

This paper presents an overview of housing markets and a cross-sectional analysis of housing demand in Hong Kong. Disturbances from political events have produced price upheavals in property prices; long-term inflation and low interest rates provide a strong stimulus for a sustained price surge in the housing market. Household income seems to have relatively little bearing on recent development in the market, especially when demand for housing has become more investment-oriented.With the data from the 1991 Population Census of Hong Kong, we find in the cross-section study that permanent and transitory incomes, rather than current income, provide better estimates in the tenure choice equation. The results also indicate that family size and the number of elderly persons affects ownership. Renter expenditure and tenure choice decisions are linked by using the two-stage estimation procedure of Lee and Trost (1978). No correlation was found between renter expenditure and tenure choice. Further, the two-stage approach does not seem to be superior to the OLS approach in the estimation of the rental expenditure equations.     

Portfolio choice in retirement: Health risk and the demand for annuities,housing, and risky assets

In a life-cycle model, a retiree faces stochastic health depreciation and chooses consumption, health expenditure, and the allocation of wealth between bonds, stocks, and housing. The model explains key facts about asset allocation and health expenditure across health status and age. The portfolio share in stocks is low overall and is positively related to health, especially for younger retirees. The portfolio share in housing is negatively related to health for younger retirees and falls significantly in age. Finally, out-of-pocket health expenditure as a share of income is negatively related to health and rises in age.     

The current account and stock returns

In this paper, I use stock return data to test an intertemporal model of the current account. I find that the model performs well in three countries: the U.K., Canada, and Japan. Hall [Hall, R.E., 1978. Stochastic implication of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: theory and evidence. J. Polit. Econ. 86 (6), 971–987] points out that because stock price predicts the future state of the economy, it predicts consumption. Assuming that consumption depends on permanent income, my empirical finding indicates that a representative agent smoothes consumption based on stock market information. In other words, stock market returns yield information about permanent income.     

Value relevance of human capital based disclosures: Moderating effects of labor productivity,investor sentiment,analyst coverage and audit quality

Voluntarily disclosed employee costs in annual reports of listed firms are value relevant, according to US based studies. However, investors appear to fail to take full advantage of the signaling opportunities presented by these disclosures. This study suggests that labor productivity, audit quality, analyst coverage and high technology categorization moderate the value relevance of voluntarily disclosed employee costs in Malaysia, contributing a novel set of moderating variables to the human capital accounting and value relevance literature, and extending the extant literature to an emerging economy. The results are consistent with the findings from US based settings, after incorporating these moderating factors. Pertinent policy recommendations, based on these findings, are suggested.     

Adjustable rate mortgages and housing demand: The impact of initial rate discounts

This article investigates the impact of ARM initial rate (teaser) discounts on mortgage choice and housing demand. Because discounted ARM loans may reduce expected user costs, theoretical models predict a positive impact on housing expenditures. To test the hypothesis, a simultaneous model of housing expenditures conditioned upon mortgage instrument choice is estimated using a national sample of transactions for the 1986 to 1988 period. The results indicate that overall housing demand would have been reduced by approximately 13 percent during the period in the absence of ARM loans.     

The valuation implications of human capital in transactions on and outside the exchange

We examine the valuation implications of human capital both for a broad sample of firms and for subsamples of high-technology firms and low-technology firms. Our results suggest that the market appears to value compensation expenses not as expenses but as if they serve as a proxy for a human asset that is omitted from the balance sheets. The findings are consistent with human capital comprising a more sizable portion of the value of high-technology firms than of low-technology firms. The findings also indicate that compensation expenses are valued differently from other expense components of income. Markedly, despite critical differences between investors on the exchange and those buying shares in transactions outside the exchange (controlling interests, information asymmetry, etc.), their assessment of the enhanced value of a firm attributable to human capital is shown to be relatively similar. The results in this study are consistent with compensation expenses creating a valuable intangible asset, hence suggesting that reform in the accounting treatment of these expenses is of critical importance.     

Taxes and production: The case of Pakistan

This paper investigates the effectiveness of investment incentives and corporate income taxes in influencing production and investment decisions in the Pakistani wearing apparel and leather products industries. Three tax instruments are considered: the corporate income tax (CIT), the investment tax credit (ITC), and the capital cost allowance (CCA).The results show that since there are significant capital adjustment costs, it is important to distinguish between the short, intermediate, and long-run effects associated with the tax instruments. Production decisions are relatively more responsive to changes in the ITC rate compared to changes in either CCA or CIT rates in each run. However, only in the long run for the apparel industry are the ITC and CCA rates cost effective in stimulating investment. The CIT is never cost effective. Thus targeted instruments outperform the general CIT instrument. In addition, although the incentive to invest is enhanced, there is little effect on output. Therefore, tax incentives essentially make production techniques more capital intensive.     

Racial and ethnic differences in housing demand: An econometric investigation

This article empirically investigates the sources of housing demand differences between racial (black and white) and ethnic (Hispanic and non-Hispanic) groups. We estimate the tenure-adjusted housing demand equations from the 1989 American Housing Survey (AHS) national sample data and measure the effects of different sources for demand disparities in housing demand, but much less so in explaining racial differences in housing demand. Specifically, 98% (96%) of the housing demand differences between Hispanic and non-Hispanic owners (renters) is due to differences in group endowments. For the racial groups, 29% (51%) of the housing demand differences between black and white owners (renters) is attributable to differences in group endowments. The residual differences explain 71% and 49% of the black-white differentials for owners and renters, respectively. The residual components in our model capture the effect of institutional and structural factors intrinsic to the housing market (such as racial discrimination or residential segregation) and/or the influence of important omitted or harder-tomeasure variables correlated with race or ethnicity (such as wealth, employment history, credit history, and cultural differences in housing consumption).     

Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation

The welfare cost of capital income taxation is analyzed utilizing intertemporally dependent preference operationalized using a variable rate of time preference. It is shown that if households exhibit increasing marginal impatience, then the welfare cost of capital income taxation is inversely related to the elasticity of the rate of time preference with respect to consumption. Therefore, the welfare cost of capital income taxation reported using time additive preferences may not be robust. Numerical examples show that the use of time additive preferences could result in the welfare cost of capital income taxation to be overestimated by as much as 25%.     

智力资本对经济增长的贡献分析

随着知识经济时代的到来,作为人力资本重要组成部分的智力资本,在经济增长中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文主要从理论和实证的角度对此进行了分析和阐述,并得出结论：一是要加大智力资本的投资力度;二是要提高智力资本投资的效益。     

加入WTO后国有企业的人才竞争策略

我国的企业在加入WTO后，面临众多的竞争，但归根到底是人才的竞争。我们必须未雨绸缪，在人力资源的开发和使用上，做好应战的准备，迎接我国加入WTO的新挑战。本文首先分析了人才竞争的趋势和特点，接着剖视了国有企业在人才竞争中面临的困境，最后提出了入世后人才竞争的对策措施，对国有企业具有一定的预警和借鉴意义。     

论跨境员工持股计划的国际税收法律问题

在传统的税法界定中,股票期权所得属于工资薪金所得,但它特有的性质决定了对其征税的规则不同于一般工资薪金所得。我国对于股票期权征税的立法规定体现在国家税务总局颁布的4部法规中,规范主要涉及四大问题:对所得的界定、跨国征税中境内所得的划分、所得征税的程序以及对企业应税所得的抵扣。OECD在2004年发布的报告和2005年新出的所得征税范本的注释中,针对跨国股票期权所得征税问题也做出相应回应。借鉴OECD的最新研究报告,应对我国现有制度中潜在的问题进行反思。     

The anatomy of growth in the OECD since 1870

Conventional growth accounting exercises are extended in this paper to allow for endogeneity of capital, demographic transitions, age dependency, and employment rates, among other factors. Using data for the OECD countries in the period 1870-2006 it is shown that growth has been predominantly driven by demographics and TFP growth. TFP has, in turn, been driven by R&D, knowledge spillovers through the channel of imports, educational attainment, and the interaction between educational attainment and the distance to the technology frontier. The estimates suggest permanent growth effects of R&D and human capital.     

Self-employment rates and business size: the roles of occupational choice and credit market frictions

Self-employment rates and project size vary greatly across countries. The main message of this paper is that these broad regularities are consistent with an environment in which a common self-employment technology is available worldwide, but where (a) financial intermediation costs and (b) alternatives in “paid” work differ greatly. Our model indicates that alternatives in paid work are crucial for explaining self-employment rates, whereas high financial intermediation costs primarily affect the scale of projects. We also show that credit use is not informative for predicting either rates of self-employment or the scale of self-employment projects.     

How Firms Make Capital Expenditure Decisions: Financial Signals, Internal Cash Flows, Income Taxes and the Tax Reform Act of 1986

This paper empirically assesses the determinants of future net capital expenditures for a broad cross-section of COMPUSTAT firms from 1973 to 1989. We explore three general categories of factors expected to affect investment: (1) external equity financing, (2) internally generated accounting information, and (3) tax incentives. We find that external financing and information plays a role in that both positive stock returns and equity issuances indicate future increases in investment. The results suggest that high stock prices not only lower the cost of capital, but also signal good investment opportunities. Accounting information about internal sources and uses of funds are also important in the investment decision. In particular, net income and depreciation are positive indicators of future investment while there is a tradeoff between the payment of dividends and investment. Further, positive changes in available cash liquidity also motivate future investment. While taxes are not important in the investment decision on average, we find that firms with previously higher income taxes invested substantially more in 1985 and 1986. This coincides with the repeal of the investment tax credit and the accelerated depreciation schedules in the Tax Reform Act of 1986. We view this as evidence that federal tax policy in the 1980's induced firms with high income tax obligations to accelerate capital expenditures just before the favorable tax treatment of capital expenditures was eliminated.     

健康人力资本对农民农业收入增长的影响研究

基于中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）面板数据,采用Hausman—Taylor模型,本文估计了中国农村地区农民的营养与健康状况对农业收入的影响。研究表明,更高的身高可以增加农民的农业收入,并且男性身高回报要高于女性。身体质量指数（BMI）对女性农业收入的提高有显著性影响,但对男性的影响不显著且方向为负。热量摄入与农业收入之间显著相关,更高的热量摄入是农业收入增长的决定因素之一。本文的研究结果为健康人力资本在农民增收中的重要作用提供了经验证据。     

城乡财政待遇应平等化——论农民综合能力的提升

本文认为,农民综合能力(以下简称农民能力)的提升对于中国经济的可持续发展、包含工业化及城市化在内的现代化的实现十分关键,而长期形成的农民能力不足恰与长期以来财政待遇不平等密切相关。因此,为了增强中国经济抗击外部风险的能力、规避公共风险,应提升农民能力,尤其在当前国际金融危机所引发的我国经济增长下滑的状况下,在实施积极财政政策的过程中,更应进一步提升农民的能力。     

人力资本、社会保障与中国居民收入不平等——基于个体相对剥夺视角

本文通过Kakwani个体相对剥夺指数测度中国城乡居民的收入不平等程度,并分析了人力资本和社会保障对居民个体收入不平等的影响机制及其城乡差异。研究发现:人力资本积累和社会保障制度能够有效抑制居民收入不平等程度的恶化,人力资本和社会保障主要通过收入增长效应和收入差距减缓效应来降低居民收入不平等程度,且稳健性检验结果依然显著;城乡之间不同收入人群在人力资本积累和社会保障再分配上存在群体差异性和阶层分化,导致城乡居民收入不平等的异质性。加强人力资本要素集聚和提高生产效率,构建城乡一体化的社会保障体系,遏制城乡居民多维贫困的代际传递,对于降低城乡居民收入不平等尤为关键。     

The effect of risk on intertemporal choice

The strong similarities between intertemporal and risky choice raised the possibility that risk and time delay were psychologically interchangeable in the way they influence preference. Consistent with the single‐process view, several previous studies have indicated that introducing uncertainty to intertemporal choice could decrease the degree of discounting future rewards just as adding time delay to it. However, the opposite effect has been observed in other cases. The present study examined the role of risk in intertemporal choice using the choice titration procedure. The results of two experiments indicated that risk and time delay had opposite effects on the preference in intertemporal choices. That is, the external uncertainty increased the degree of discounting future, whereas the opposite is true for time delays. Thus, our results were unfriendly to the single‐process theory. In addition, the present study demonstrated the presence of an immediacy effect as well as a magnitude effect in intertemporal choice regardless of whether or not the reward is certain.